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Fantasy Mafia DP1 (Part 2)

F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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6/7/2013 3:42:10 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
The DP1 thread has gone on too long and some of the pages ended up not being viewable, instead taking members to a 401 error page. For that reason, I've started a new thread. Airmax has been kind enough to save a game that was just about to be ruined. Thanks Airmax.

I urge players to limit quoting to a minimum. One of the reasons that the pages won't load is due to the large amount of text which increases due to quoting.

I took screenshots of pages 2 to 11 and Airmax deleted those posts from the thread. This made the thread shorter and all pages are now visible. The screenshots for those pages are on page 11.

A few important updates:
**TheAntidoter** has replaced Lucky_Luciano
**Ore_Ele** has replaced ishallannoyyo

The day phase has been extended for 2.5 hours and will instead end tomorrow at 7:00 PM PST (which is 9:00 PM DDO time) to make up for lost time. While I initially said that there won't be any extensions, I was referring to extensions where town can't make a decision, not to technical issues. This was quite unexpected. If you are not happy with the extension, PM me with what you believe to be an acceptable alternative.

Thanks to Airmax, the show goes on.

Active Players
1 airmax1227
2 BlackVoid
3 Buddamoose
4 drafterman
5 FourTrouble
6 IFLYHIGH
7 ishallannoyyo
8 johnnyboy54
9 Khaos Mage
10 Lucky_Luciano
11 OneElephant
12 SarcasticIndeed
13 Skepsikyma
14 trekie
15 TUF
16 yin.yang
17 Yraelz

With 17 alive, it takes 9 votes to lynch or to end the DP in a "No Lynch."

Vote Count
OneElephant - 1/9 - BlackVoid
Yraelz - 2/9 - OneElephant, TUF
Khaos_Mage - 4/9 - SarcasticIndeed, Skepsikyma, Buddamoose, johnnyboy54
drafterman - 2/9 - Yraelz, Khaos_Mage
trekie - 1/9 - IFLYHIGH
TUF - 1/9 - yin.yang
yin.yang - 2/9 - FourTrouble, TheAntidoter

Not Voting (4): Ore_Ele, trekie, drafterman, Airmax1227

Time Remaining: ~ 17 hours
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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6/7/2013 3:45:37 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Forgot to edit with replacements:

Active Players
1 airmax1227
2 BlackVoid
3 Buddamoose
4 drafterman
5 FourTrouble
6 IFLYHIGH
7 Ore_Ele (replaced ishallannoyyo)
8 johnnyboy54
9 Khaos Mage
10 TheAntidoter (replaced Lucky_Luciano)
11 OneElephant
12 SarcasticIndeed
13 Skepsikyma
14 trekie
15 TUF
16 yin.yang
17 Yraelz
TUF
Posts: 21,309
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6/7/2013 4:16:08 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Everyone needs to post their top five now. The day phase is coming to an end tomorrow. We've bickered and posted so much contradicting crap that we 401'ed the last day phase. Mafia are winning right now as the day phase the way it is currently at, will end in a no lynch or a bandwagones lynch of people wanting to end the day phase. We need to come together and come to a democratic conclusion. The top five is a mathematical method that supports the majority team which is the townies. There should be no reason that anybody should object to posting their top five. I am not forcing you to vote anyone yet, so why not? At worst you added your reads for others to analyze. Anyone who further complains about posting a top five will be seen as scummy. Again later I will post a deep analysis I have written about the benefit to top five lists, that will show how lynching off of it will he productive. But for now I really just need everyone to post their five ASAP.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
IFLYHIGH
Posts: 5,223
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6/7/2013 4:27:58 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 12:57:22 AM, johnnyboy54 wrote:
At 6/7/2013 12:32:06 AM, IFLYHIGH wrote:
At 6/6/2013 8:14:57 PM, drafterman wrote:
Everyone voting for Khaos needs to ask themselves why a Mafioso would put themselves on the line to get me lynched, given my role.

Seriously, fvcking this^. I would like anybody voting johnny to answer this. I really don't like how the support is growing for a Khaos lynch.

Hrmm. There are possibilities depending on the role and circumstance. For one, assuming Drafterman isn't mafia, mafia could be reading you as TP and have Khaos somewhat CC you to help confirm him as town. Khaos could be a yakuza and be disposable, and getting you lynched would be worth it if they used the recruit this DP.

Neither of these sound like plausible explanations. Not even close. Mafia read Drafter as TP so they had Khaos cc in order to confirm him? Based on what, behavioral analysis? That would be incredible risky on mafia's part and to be honest, quite stupid. I don't know if mafia's ever done this.

The second possibility you listed is that Khaos is yakuza and mafia is tying to mislynch a townie before using Khaos's role. First of all, when was the last time a yakuza was even in a game? Second of all, if mafia's plan was for Khaos to cc Drafter, then it doesn't make sense for Khaos to only kind of cc Drafter and then not pursue it as a cc.

Really this is a worthless question with many different possibilities depending on the makeup of the game, the roles of the players, and the motivations of the mafia.

This is an incredibly weak argument that reduces down to "I don't know, but hey, it's still possible!" It's possible to dismiss all evidence in favor of your scum read using this argument. Your top scum read gets mod confirmed? Doesn't matter, mod could a bastard mod for all we know.

unvote. VTL Johnny.

While I realize that bad reasoning is often a null tell, I can't shake off the feeling Johnny is using this horribad argument to keep his vote on Khaos. I don't even like Johnny's reason for adding his vote to Khaos in the first place. So because he's a roleblocker also, one of either Khaos or Drafter is scum? I'm fairly confident at this point that Khaos is town and that Johnny is one of the scum pushing for Khaos's lynch.
IFLYHIGH
Posts: 5,223
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6/7/2013 4:31:03 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I realize that the suggestion to mass claim our age doesn't really seem to have caught on, but I'll list my character's age anyways since I think Yraelz makes some good points.

I'm mid to late 30's according to the wiki.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 6:40:35 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
VTL Johnny

Really, johnny? Really? Mafia is hoping I'm TP so they can get cred for being town when we don't give town-cred for lynching TPs?
johnnyboy54
Posts: 6,362
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6/7/2013 6:43:53 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 4:27:58 AM, IFLYHIGH wrote:
At 6/7/2013 12:57:22 AM, johnnyboy54 wrote:
At 6/7/2013 12:32:06 AM, IFLYHIGH wrote:
At 6/6/2013 8:14:57 PM, drafterman wrote:
Everyone voting for Khaos needs to ask themselves why a Mafioso would put themselves on the line to get me lynched, given my role.

Seriously, fvcking this^. I would like anybody voting johnny to answer this. I really don't like how the support is growing for a Khaos lynch.

Hrmm. There are possibilities depending on the role and circumstance. For one, assuming Drafterman isn't mafia, mafia could be reading you as TP and have Khaos somewhat CC you to help confirm him as town. Khaos could be a yakuza and be disposable, and getting you lynched would be worth it if they used the recruit this DP.

Neither of these sound like plausible explanations. Not even close. Mafia read Drafter as TP so they had Khaos cc in order to confirm him? Based on what, behavioral analysis? That would be incredible risky on mafia's part and to be honest, quite stupid. I don't know if mafia's ever done this.

Yes it is a gambit. And yes it has been done before. F-16 CCed Bluesteel in Redwall because he thought he was TP. I know this because he was mafia with me in that game. And you know that if mafia doesn't take risks, than mafia will never win, so don't give me the, "oh, it's risky," bullsh!t.

The second possibility you listed is that Khaos is yakuza and mafia is tying to mislynch a townie before using Khaos's role. First of all, when was the last time a yakuza was even in a game? Second of all, if mafia's plan was for Khaos to cc Drafter, then it doesn't make sense for Khaos to only kind of cc Drafter and then not pursue it as a cc.

He kinda did, considering he voted for his death and kept voting for his death.

Marvel vs DC mafia, which is a current game, also had a yakuza. Other than that, I don't know what games have had them because I haven't been playing.

Really this is a worthless question with many different possibilities depending on the makeup of the game, the roles of the players, and the motivations of the mafia.

This is an incredibly weak argument that reduces down to "I don't know, but hey, it's still possible!" It's possible to dismiss all evidence in favor of your scum read using this argument. Your top scum read gets mod confirmed? Doesn't matter, mod could a bastard mod for all we know.

My argument boils down to the idea that there are reasons for mafia to CC Drafter, depending on the makeup of the game. Drafter's argument gave me absolutely no reason to ignore the similarity of all three of our roles or the behavioral read I had on Khaos.

unvote. VTL Johnny.

While I realize that bad reasoning is often a null tell, I can't shake off the feeling Johnny is using this horribad argument to keep his vote on Khaos. I don't even like Johnny's reason for adding his vote to Khaos in the first place. So because he's a roleblocker also, one of either Khaos or Drafter is scum? I'm fairly confident at this point that Khaos is town and that Johnny is one of the scum pushing for Khaos's lynch.

Based on what? What makes me scum and not town using bad reasoning.
I didn't order assholes with my whiskey.
johnnyboy54
Posts: 6,362
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6/7/2013 6:44:46 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I'm gonna be late for work. I'll be on by 430-530 if the DP is still going. If people want to extend the DP, I'm down.
I didn't order assholes with my whiskey.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 7:10:32 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 6:43:53 AM, johnnyboy54 wrote:
At 6/7/2013 4:27:58 AM, IFLYHIGH wrote:
At 6/7/2013 12:57:22 AM, johnnyboy54 wrote:
At 6/7/2013 12:32:06 AM, IFLYHIGH wrote:
At 6/6/2013 8:14:57 PM, drafterman wrote:
Everyone voting for Khaos needs to ask themselves why a Mafioso would put themselves on the line to get me lynched, given my role.

Seriously, fvcking this^. I would like anybody voting johnny to answer this. I really don't like how the support is growing for a Khaos lynch.

Hrmm. There are possibilities depending on the role and circumstance. For one, assuming Drafterman isn't mafia, mafia could be reading you as TP and have Khaos somewhat CC you to help confirm him as town. Khaos could be a yakuza and be disposable, and getting you lynched would be worth it if they used the recruit this DP.

Neither of these sound like plausible explanations. Not even close. Mafia read Drafter as TP so they had Khaos cc in order to confirm him? Based on what, behavioral analysis? That would be incredible risky on mafia's part and to be honest, quite stupid. I don't know if mafia's ever done this.

Yes it is a gambit. And yes it has been done before. F-16 CCed Bluesteel in Redwall because he thought he was TP. I know this because he was mafia with me in that game. And you know that if mafia doesn't take risks, than mafia will never win, so don't give me the, "oh, it's risky," bullsh!t.

Totally different.

1. They knew there was a cult.
2. The conclusion that bluesteel was cult was based upon his behavior.
3. Even if they were wrong, they could still team up with cult to win (which they did)

Redwall is held up as a non-normal mafia game and shouldn't be used in any sort of extrapolations of mafia in general.

It is suspicious that you would go to this to try and justify any sort of case for Khaos being mafia here when that was a unique situation.
TUF
Posts: 21,309
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6/7/2013 8:05:57 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 4:33:55 AM, IFLYHIGH wrote:
TUF, let's set our differences aside and lynch Johnny! Him also being inactive is like icing on a cake.

Your acting like four trouble. Any way, there wasn't ever any difference. I just FOSed you at the beginning of the day phase for scummy behavior when not many other players had posted. Since then your posts have checked out. But my lynch vote is going to stay on Yraelz unless until I get every ones TOP five results.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
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6/7/2013 8:08:26 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
1) Khaos
2) Yin
3) Sarcastic
4) Trekie
5) Yraelz
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 8:09:46 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 8:08:26 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
1) Khaos
2) Yin
3) Sarcastic
4) Trekie
5) Yraelz

Explain why mafia would fake a CC to get me lynched.
TUF
Posts: 21,309
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6/7/2013 8:12:05 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 8:08:26 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
1) Khaos
2) Yin
3) Sarcastic
4) Trekie
5) Yraelz

Thankyou.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
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6/7/2013 8:18:54 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 8:09:46 AM, drafterman wrote:
At 6/7/2013 8:08:26 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
1) Khaos
2) Yin
3) Sarcastic
4) Trekie
5) Yraelz

Explain why mafia would fake a CC to get me lynched.

Fake a CC? Last time i checked Khaos neve called it a CC, he just said your roles were similar, and when you brought up him dying subsequently if you flipped town, I didnt see a mention of anything even remotely similar to a CC after that from him.

So it looks to me like he was more interested in keeping his arse alive, and got scared upon realizing that if you were town, he'd die soon after. So no, he wasnt really trying to get you lynched, at least not with the effort it would take.
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 8:25:54 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 8:18:54 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
At 6/7/2013 8:09:46 AM, drafterman wrote:
At 6/7/2013 8:08:26 AM, Buddamoose wrote:
1) Khaos
2) Yin
3) Sarcastic
4) Trekie
5) Yraelz

Explain why mafia would fake a CC to get me lynched.

Fake a CC? Last time i checked Khaos neve called it a CC, he just said your roles were similar, and when you brought up him dying subsequently if you flipped town, I didnt see a mention of anything even remotely similar to a CC after that from him.

The basis for his vote on me is that he doesn't believe both roles would be in the game. That, in essence, is a CC. A CC is basically one player saying to another, "This game ain't big enough for the both of us."

As far as I've seen, he has yet to factor in Yraelz enabler role, which would certainly mitigate either of ours. Regardless, his argument is that we both can't be Town. It's, in all the ways that matter, a CC. If you believe I'm Town and that Khaos is mafia, you have to explain why he would do that.

It's not like he is faking a CC to out or get rid of a cop or doctor, I'm a fvcking 3x Tree Stumper. At best I'm a 3x RBer since Yraelz can undo my actions over the course of 3 NPs (excepting the night I use it). It is guaranteed I rob a random Townie of their ability, permanently (which fvcks us over if that random Townie is Yraelz, lest he is immune; F-16 said not everyone can be affected by my ability). Objectively and mechanically, the mafia should want me to stay alive, hoping that I hinder Town enough for them to work with impunity. It's in their best interests to have me be alive, hoping I hit a cop, watcher, or doctor.

So, again, why would mafia risk anything to get me lynched?


So it looks to me like he was more interested in keeping his arse alive, and got scared upon realizing that if you were town, he'd die soon after. So no, he wasnt really trying to get you lynched, at least not with the effort it would take.

Or maybe I had him see reason?
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 8:26:34 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 8:15:09 AM, TUF wrote:
Drafter since your online can you quickly post your top five?

Everyone on Khaos' lynch plus you.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 8:32:44 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Again, this would be different if Khaos simply said my role is unbelievable in and of itself. This would be different if he simply said he thought I was lying or that my role couldn't be Town. It's certainly probable that a mafioso would try and get me lynched as an easy mislynch target (though that probably wouldn't be in their best interests until after I had used my role).

However, he isn't just doing that. He has explicitly tied his role and affiliation into his case against me. He put himself on the line to get me lynched. This makes no sense. While every mislynch helps the mafia get closer to winning, you have to weigh the costs of the mislynch. 1:1 hurts mafia, more often than not, and they only do that if that cost is compensated for the Townie that is lost. I'm a negative utility role, do you really think Mafia is going to risk a 1 for 1 trade on me?

Really?
SarcasticIndeed
Posts: 2,215
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6/7/2013 8:37:40 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 8:32:44 AM, drafterman wrote:
Again, this would be different if Khaos simply said my role is unbelievable in and of itself. This would be different if he simply said he thought I was lying or that my role couldn't be Town. It's certainly probable that a mafioso would try and get me lynched as an easy mislynch target (though that probably wouldn't be in their best interests until after I had used my role).

However, he isn't just doing that. He has explicitly tied his role and affiliation into his case against me. He put himself on the line to get me lynched. This makes no sense. While every mislynch helps the mafia get closer to winning, you have to weigh the costs of the mislynch. 1:1 hurts mafia, more often than not, and they only do that if that cost is compensated for the Townie that is lost. I'm a negative utility role, do you really think Mafia is going to risk a 1 for 1 trade on me?

Really?

I get what you are saying. What do you think about what I voted him for? He essentially said he'd hammer his townread if his main options are exhausted.
<SIGNATURE CENSORED> nac
Buddamoose
Posts: 19,448
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6/7/2013 8:48:42 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Unvote VTL Yin_Yang
"Reality is an illusion created due to a lack of alcohol"
-Airmax1227

"You were the moon all this time, and he was always there to make you shine."

"Was he the sun?"

"No honey, he was the darkness"

-Kazekirion
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 9:06:01 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 8:37:40 AM, SarcasticIndeed wrote:
At 6/7/2013 8:32:44 AM, drafterman wrote:
Again, this would be different if Khaos simply said my role is unbelievable in and of itself. This would be different if he simply said he thought I was lying or that my role couldn't be Town. It's certainly probable that a mafioso would try and get me lynched as an easy mislynch target (though that probably wouldn't be in their best interests until after I had used my role).

However, he isn't just doing that. He has explicitly tied his role and affiliation into his case against me. He put himself on the line to get me lynched. This makes no sense. While every mislynch helps the mafia get closer to winning, you have to weigh the costs of the mislynch. 1:1 hurts mafia, more often than not, and they only do that if that cost is compensated for the Townie that is lost. I'm a negative utility role, do you really think Mafia is going to risk a 1 for 1 trade on me?

Really?

I get what you are saying. What do you think about what I voted him for? He essentially said he'd hammer his townread if his main options are exhausted.

It doesn't matter. He's not scum. So if you accept my argument, then you have to conclude that he's not scum.
SarcasticIndeed
Posts: 2,215
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6/7/2013 9:52:11 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 9:06:01 AM, drafterman wrote:
At 6/7/2013 8:37:40 AM, SarcasticIndeed wrote:
At 6/7/2013 8:32:44 AM, drafterman wrote:
Again, this would be different if Khaos simply said my role is unbelievable in and of itself. This would be different if he simply said he thought I was lying or that my role couldn't be Town. It's certainly probable that a mafioso would try and get me lynched as an easy mislynch target (though that probably wouldn't be in their best interests until after I had used my role).

However, he isn't just doing that. He has explicitly tied his role and affiliation into his case against me. He put himself on the line to get me lynched. This makes no sense. While every mislynch helps the mafia get closer to winning, you have to weigh the costs of the mislynch. 1:1 hurts mafia, more often than not, and they only do that if that cost is compensated for the Townie that is lost. I'm a negative utility role, do you really think Mafia is going to risk a 1 for 1 trade on me?

Really?

I get what you are saying. What do you think about what I voted him for? He essentially said he'd hammer his townread if his main options are exhausted.

It doesn't matter. He's not scum. So if you accept my argument, then you have to conclude that he's not scum.
So that was just dumb town play? As much as I find that hard to accept, I'll Unvote.
<SIGNATURE CENSORED> nac
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 9:59:38 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I'd have to see the statement in context. Regardless, if there is any argument to be made for why Khaos is mafia, it has to include an explanation of why he would try and push for my lynch.
SarcasticIndeed
Posts: 2,215
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6/7/2013 10:10:09 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/5/2013 7:42:44 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
Alright, so, now that I lost my temper, and am collected again, I am for the following people's lynch:
Lucky, for being inactive (there might be another inactive)
Drafter, for being distant (the same this he did in Romance, when he was scum)
Airmax, because I don't see what role Toby could possibly have.
Johnny, he is a spy, and can't be trusted (and is largely inactive)

I would even consider hammering Yraelz if he doesn't claim, but I do consider him slight town or null.

This is the post I'm refering to, and the conversation that came out of it. Hammering a town read, even if slight, makes no sense to me at all, unless said town is troll.
<SIGNATURE CENSORED> nac
TUF
Posts: 21,309
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6/7/2013 11:20:41 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 8:26:34 AM, drafterman wrote:
At 6/7/2013 8:15:09 AM, TUF wrote:
Drafter since your online can you quickly post your top five?

Everyone on Khaos' lynch plus you.

In what order?
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
yin.yang
Posts: 428
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6/7/2013 11:33:28 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I didn't want anymore claims today but the votes on us are wasting time and I'd like to see a lynch today.

We're a pokemon trainer. Not Ash or Red or anybody cool, just a pokemon trainer. I hinted as much in my first post ("Gotta catch up now") and my response to yraelz when he said it would easy to claim Ditto in this game. We've got 4 pokemon - Alakazam, Rayquaza, Voltorb, and Chansey - and they've each got one "move". This was also hinted at by my attack on yraelz for preemptively attacking joats. I'd rather not out what these moves are yet, as some of them lose their utility. Just investigate us tonight.

tuf, yraelz, and khaos are my top scum reads. I don't have two more for a list; tulle stopped reading pages ago and I've been flying solo since I got to Canada. I'll try to check in throughout the day.

- m
Maikuru and tulle.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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6/7/2013 11:36:56 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I completely forgot to include this but Khaos said this in the announcement thread last night:

I hate to do this here, but I have no other option, I can't stay awake anymore. I worked 17 hours today, and 19 tomorrow, and I've spent about an hour trying to catch up and apparently defend myself as support for my lynch is growing (for awhile I could see the last page).

I obviously cannot defend myself here, nor do I know what was said. All I can say is that I am town, and since Yraelz claimed ENABLER, it is quite feasable that Drafter and I can have similar roles. So, I UNVOTE.

I think there are scum trying to tunnel me, because I am an easy mislynch target. Watch out for those that have voted for me up til now, assuming we can ever get that information.

Good night, and we'll see if I survive the day. I doubt I will be able to post before DP1 ends.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 11:43:32 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 11:20:41 AM, TUF wrote:
At 6/7/2013 8:26:34 AM, drafterman wrote:
At 6/7/2013 8:15:09 AM, TUF wrote:
Drafter since your online can you quickly post your top five?

Everyone on Khaos' lynch plus you.

In what order?

Ranked in descending order of how many inane questions (such as asking me to order my scum reads) they ask me.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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6/7/2013 11:44:29 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 6/7/2013 11:33:28 AM, yin.yang wrote:

tuf, yraelz, and khaos are my top scum reads. I don't have two more for a list; tulle stopped reading pages ago and I've been flying solo since I got to Canada. I'll try to check in throughout the day.

- m

Justify your read on Khaos. Explain why a mafia would risk themselves to get my mislynched.