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BEGINNERS 15.1 - Day Phase 2

drafterman
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7/24/2013 12:33:41 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Lynched Last Phase:
Beginner - Vanilla - Town

Died Last Night:
daytona - Vanilla - Town

Living Players:
1. bladerunner
2. xXCryptoXx
3. Cermank
4. Noctan (YYW)
5. Lannan13

With 5 players, it takes 3 votes to lynch.
This Day Phase will end no later than 7/26 at 12:00 PM DDO Time.
lannan13
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7/24/2013 12:40:18 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
VTL Notcan for claim.

The reason for this vote is because YYW was inactive and we don't have any reads on him yet so with that being said I believe that like I said at the end of the last day phase that we should focus this day phase on getting reads and over all being careful on who we lynch,
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

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bladerunner060
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7/24/2013 2:15:56 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Also, I may have missed it or just be dumb, but what does "for claim" mean in the context of your vote, Lannan? You said it before, too, I think. In drafter's description, "claim" was "Either Character Claim or Role Claim. This is a request to reveal this part of your Role." Are you voting to lynch unless/until they reveal their claim?
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 5:22:38 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 1:05:16 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
At this point, if we mislynch, we lose, right?

Correct, because if we mislynch it'll be 2 mafia, 2 town. Then you have the night kill leading to a mafia victory.
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 5:24:34 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 2:15:56 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
Also, I may have missed it or just be dumb, but what does "for claim" mean in the context of your vote, Lannan? You said it before, too, I think. In drafter's description, "claim" was "Either Character Claim or Role Claim. This is a request to reveal this part of your Role." Are you voting to lynch unless/until they reveal their claim?

Correct. I'm voting for him to tell me their role. Though you may think that this isn't important since you're either goon or vanillia, but it'll help determine who the mafia is based on how they react to pressure and the leggitamancy of their claim.
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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bladerunner060
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7/24/2013 5:31:32 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:24:34 PM, lannan13 wrote:
leggitamancy

What sorcery is this!? (I know it was just a typo...but I crack me up).

Anyway, in this game, though, presumably he'll just say "I'm vanilla town"?
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 5:33:02 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:31:32 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
At 7/24/2013 5:24:34 PM, lannan13 wrote:
leggitamancy

What sorcery is this!? (I know it was just a typo...but I crack me up).



Anyway, in this game, though, presumably he'll just say "I'm vanilla town"?

Most likely.
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 5:33:38 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Before this day phase is over I also want to here from Cenmark too since he has only posted once in the last day phase.
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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bladerunner060
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7/24/2013 5:36:54 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I'll VTL xXCryptoXx.

He was the other suspicious character from yesterday. Though at this point I feel like the game was very short, and didn't have a lot of room for actually figuring out roles, so really it's almost random. But Beginner also originally asked that, if we did lynch him, when he was shown as innocent to lynch Crypto. Seems at this point a good enough reason.
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 5:37:02 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Bladerunner since you're here what are your reads?

Mine from top being most likely scum to the bottom.

1. YYW/ Notcom
2. Cenmark
3. Cyrpto
4. Bladerunner

If we lynch YYW/ Notcom and he's mafia then it's likely that Cyrto is since he was defending him last day phase stating that he couldn't be since he was being replaced. But with that said it doesn't rule out Cenmark for his inactivity.
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 5:39:39 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:36:54 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
I'll VTL xXCryptoXx.

He was the other suspicious character from yesterday. Though at this point I feel like the game was very short, and didn't have a lot of room for actually figuring out roles, so really it's almost random. But Beginner also originally asked that, if we did lynch him, when he was shown as innocent to lynch Crypto. Seems at this point a good enough reason.

Before we lynch Crypto I say that we need to find out more about these other players before we head into a full scale lynch. Though I agree with you that he does warrant a lynch due to lurking when the Day Phase was first posted and I saw him post in Imabench's poll but not here. Secondly for defeneding YYW on the grounds that we knew that it didn't matter.
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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Noctan
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7/24/2013 5:39:56 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I actually am just a vanilla. And Lan? How can you know the exact number of mafia?
I can manage my anger if people can manage their stupidity.
bladerunner060
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7/24/2013 5:44:04 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:39:56 PM, Noctan wrote:
I actually am just a vanilla. And Lan? How can you know the exact number of mafia?

It's in DP 1. 5 Town, 2 Mafia, Vanillas and Goons.
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 5:44:23 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:39:56 PM, Noctan wrote:
I actually am just a vanilla. And Lan? How can you know the exact number of mafia?

Because of what Beginner said last day phase. Secondly if there were more than that the game would be over now. And if there were less the game would be way to town sided and I know Drafter wouldn't do something like that.

At 7/22/2013 9:19:48 PM, Beginner wrote:
The other reason:
Note the roles. There are 5 vanillas and 2 goons.
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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bladerunner060
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7/24/2013 5:46:24 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:37:02 PM, lannan13 wrote:
Bladerunner since you're here what are your reads?

Blarg. That's my read.

My analysis yesterday felt good, and I was clear that I lacked certainty on important points...but Beginner wasn't mafia.

That leads me to think:

Crypto
You
Noctan
Cermank

I'm still holding on to the idea that the vets are better at this than us noobs. Therefore we should concentrate on noobs. I know I'm clear, which leaves just the 3 other noobs. While I don't rule you out, you're a vet, so I assume you're smarter than me and that I won't be able to figure you out.

Therefore, I gotta pick one of the others. Noctan and Cermank have been mostly quiet. I stand by my analysis of Cermank (which, at this point, probably means I'm wrong). Noctan is essentially opaque, considering there's only the one post and he just joined. That leaves Crypto, who was vaguely suspicious yesterday.

That and Beginner's request from yesterday are why he's my lynch candidate. I put you as number 2 just because I figure it's likely but not certain that a vet was a mafia, and the other vet be dead. Then the other two in essentially random order because I have no idea what level of suspicion I should assign to being quiet.
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 5:50:45 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:46:24 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
At 7/24/2013 5:37:02 PM, lannan13 wrote:
Bladerunner since you're here what are your reads?

Blarg. That's my read.

My analysis yesterday felt good, and I was clear that I lacked certainty on important points...but Beginner wasn't mafia.

That leads me to think:

Crypto
You
Noctan
Cermank

I'm still holding on to the idea that the vets are better at this than us noobs. Therefore we should concentrate on noobs. I know I'm clear, which leaves just the 3 other noobs. While I don't rule you out, you're a vet, so I assume you're smarter than me and that I won't be able to figure you out.

I doubt that. You can ask any expiranced player and they will tell you I suck at playing mafia. That's why I'm in the Beginners Series.

Therefore, I gotta pick one of the others. Noctan and Cermank have been mostly quiet. I stand by my analysis of Cermank (which, at this point, probably means I'm wrong). Noctan is essentially opaque, considering there's only the one post and he just joined. That leaves Crypto, who was vaguely suspicious yesterday.

I agree on Crypto, but I thought yesterday we were suspious of inactives and the two inactives are at the bottom of your suspicion chart.

That and Beginner's request from yesterday are why he's my lynch candidate. I put you as number 2 just because I figure it's likely but not certain that a vet was a mafia, and the other vet be dead. Then the other two in essentially random order because I have no idea what level of suspicion I should assign to being quiet.

Drafter said the roles were assigned randomly.
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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bladerunner060
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7/24/2013 5:54:03 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:50:45 PM, lannan13 wrote:

I agree on Crypto, but I thought yesterday we were suspious of inactives and the two inactives are at the bottom of your suspicion chart.

Only because there's only 4 slots on the chart.

That and Beginner's request from yesterday are why he's my lynch candidate. I put you as number 2 just because I figure it's likely but not certain that a vet was a mafia, and the other vet be dead. Then the other two in essentially random order because I have no idea what level of suspicion I should assign to being quiet.

Drafter said the roles were assigned randomly.

He did indeed. Which is why I wasn't on the "definitely lynch a vet" bandwagon that Beginner was trying to do. And why I haven't put you at the top of my list.

But at this point I'm essentially grasping at straws. I have no confidence in my assessment, and particularly no confidence in putting the quiet 2 on the bottom.
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 5:56:26 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:54:03 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
At 7/24/2013 5:50:45 PM, lannan13 wrote:

I agree on Crypto, but I thought yesterday we were suspious of inactives and the two inactives are at the bottom of your suspicion chart.

Only because there's only 4 slots on the chart.


That and Beginner's request from yesterday are why he's my lynch candidate. I put you as number 2 just because I figure it's likely but not certain that a vet was a mafia, and the other vet be dead. Then the other two in essentially random order because I have no idea what level of suspicion I should assign to being quiet.

Drafter said the roles were assigned randomly.

He did indeed. Which is why I wasn't on the "definitely lynch a vet" bandwagon that Beginner was trying to do. And why I haven't put you at the top of my list.

But at this point I'm essentially grasping at straws. I have no confidence in my assessment, and particularly no confidence in putting the quiet 2 on the bottom.

That's why I'm trying to here from them so we can get a little more incite and if those two check out then we can go back to Crypto.
-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-Lannan13'S SIGNATURE-~-~-~-~-~-~-~-

If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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bladerunner060
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7/24/2013 5:59:53 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:56:26 PM, lannan13 wrote:
At 7/24/2013 5:54:03 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
At 7/24/2013 5:50:45 PM, lannan13 wrote:

I agree on Crypto, but I thought yesterday we were suspious of inactives and the two inactives are at the bottom of your suspicion chart.

Only because there's only 4 slots on the chart.


That and Beginner's request from yesterday are why he's my lynch candidate. I put you as number 2 just because I figure it's likely but not certain that a vet was a mafia, and the other vet be dead. Then the other two in essentially random order because I have no idea what level of suspicion I should assign to being quiet.

Drafter said the roles were assigned randomly.

He did indeed. Which is why I wasn't on the "definitely lynch a vet" bandwagon that Beginner was trying to do. And why I haven't put you at the top of my list.

But at this point I'm essentially grasping at straws. I have no confidence in my assessment, and particularly no confidence in putting the quiet 2 on the bottom.

That's why I'm trying to here from them so we can get a little more incite and if those two check out then we can go back to Crypto.

Hmm.

Unvote

You're starting to convince me that maybe we should focus on the quiet ones.
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lannan13
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7/24/2013 6:05:26 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Notcon, I see you're on. What are your reads and why?
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If the sky's the limit then why do we have footprints on the Moon? I'm shooting my aspirations for the stars.

"If you are going through hell, keep going." "Sir Winston Churchill

"No one can make you feel inferior without your consent." "Eleanor Roosevelt

Topics I want to debate. (http://tinyurl.com...)
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xXCryptoXx
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7/24/2013 6:32:29 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:46:24 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
At 7/24/2013 5:37:02 PM, lannan13 wrote:
Bladerunner since you're here what are your reads?

Blarg. That's my read.

My analysis yesterday felt good, and I was clear that I lacked certainty on important points...but Beginner wasn't mafia.

That leads me to think:

Crypto
You
Noctan
Cermank

I'm still holding on to the idea that the vets are better at this than us noobs. Therefore we should concentrate on noobs. I know I'm clear, which leaves just the 3 other noobs. While I don't rule you out, you're a vet, so I assume you're smarter than me and that I won't be able to figure you out.

Therefore, I gotta pick one of the others. Noctan and Cermank have been mostly quiet. I stand by my analysis of Cermank (which, at this point, probably means I'm wrong). Noctan is essentially opaque, considering there's only the one post and he just joined. That leaves Crypto, who was vaguely suspicious yesterday.

How do we know that Noctan and Cermank aren't just lurking?
From what I remember, the only possibly suspicious thing I could have done would have been the PM thing, which like I said before, was a mistake that I can't force you guys to believe.

Anyways, Beginner was our best bet for lynching simply because of reasons already listed. It wold be foolish to lynch someone just because a dead guy requested.

We should think this through more.

Bladerunner, from what I've seen you're our best analyst so what do you think? Give us something like you gave in the last Day Phase.
Nolite Timere
Noctan
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7/24/2013 8:07:37 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 6:32:29 PM, xXCryptoXx wrote:
At 7/24/2013 5:46:24 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
At 7/24/2013 5:37:02 PM, lannan13 wrote:
Bladerunner since you're here what are your reads?

Blarg. That's my read.

My analysis yesterday felt good, and I was clear that I lacked certainty on important points...but Beginner wasn't mafia.

That leads me to think:

Crypto
You
Noctan
Cermank

I'm still holding on to the idea that the vets are better at this than us noobs. Therefore we should concentrate on noobs. I know I'm clear, which leaves just the 3 other noobs. While I don't rule you out, you're a vet, so I assume you're smarter than me and that I won't be able to figure you out.

Therefore, I gotta pick one of the others. Noctan and Cermank have been mostly quiet. I stand by my analysis of Cermank (which, at this point, probably means I'm wrong). Noctan is essentially opaque, considering there's only the one post and he just joined. That leaves Crypto, who was vaguely suspicious yesterday.


How do we know that Noctan and Cermank aren't just lurking?
From what I remember, the only possibly suspicious thing I could have done would have been the PM thing, which like I said before, was a mistake that I can't force you guys to believe.

Anyways, Beginner was our best bet for lynching simply because of reasons already listed. It wold be foolish to lynch someone just because a dead guy requested.

We should think this through more.

Bladerunner, from what I've seen you're our best analyst so what do you think? Give us something like you gave in the last Day Phase.

I'm not lurking...I just got replaced into this game. As for reads I can't really come up with them at the moment. We need to post more. I'll look at DP1 for a start though.
I can manage my anger if people can manage their stupidity.
drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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7/24/2013 8:38:38 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 1:05:16 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
At this point, if we mislynch, we lose, right?

MYLO and LYLO

MYLO = Mislynch and Lose (http://wiki.mafiascum.net...). This happens when the Town only outnumber the Mafia by two. It is called MYLO because if the Town mislynches (kills another Townie) that, plus the assumed Mafia Night Kill, is enough for the Mafia to achieve its win condition of 50% or greater numbers.

LYLO = Lynch or Lose (http://wiki.mafiascum.net...). This happens when the Town only outnumber the Mafia by one. It is called LYLO because the Town must lynch, and must do so correctly. In MYLO the Town may still No Lynch without losing; this option is unavailable during LYLO because, if the Town fails to kill a Mafioso, they will use their Night Kill to achieve their win condition.

Despite their similarities, the strategies during each can differ and can be counter intuitive.

Since this game is an open set-up, it is easy to determine that the game currently is at LYLO (3 Townies versus 2 Mafioso). The Town must lynch, and must lynch correctly, or it will lose.

At 7/24/2013 2:15:56 PM, bladerunner060 wrote:
Also, I may have missed it or just be dumb, but what does "for claim" mean in the context of your vote, Lannan? You said it before, too, I think. In drafter's description, "claim" was "Either Character Claim or Role Claim. This is a request to reveal this part of your Role." Are you voting to lynch unless/until they reveal their claim?

Generally yes. The only actual coercive mechanism any player has during the game is their vote. However, since the primary purpose of the vote is to ultimately lynch (kill) someone, it is necessary to qualify the vote if it is to be used for other purpose, generally to coerce other players into behaving someway (such as to reveal information they have) with the implicit threat that, if they don't, then the Town will lynch them.

Vote Count
Noctan - 1/3 - lannan
xXCryptoXx
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7/24/2013 11:34:20 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:39:56 PM, Noctan wrote:
I actually am just a vanilla. And Lan? How can you know the exact number of mafia?

The game started with 2 Mafia, and 2 people have died and were confirmed as townies, so there are still 2 mafia.

Ah, so you're just a vanilla?

If you were Mafia saying you were vanilla then it is either

a. A super newb way to show you are vanilla, which automatically makes people suspicious that you are Mafia

b. You actually are a vanilla but you are playing it terribly by right out saying you're a vanilla.

c. Making us think that a mafia wouldn't say they are a vanilla because that makes us suspicious that you are mafia, therefore making us think you're not mafia when you really are...

Maybe I'm thinking too much on this sense it just gets into "Rock Paper Scissors How to Win" reasoning.

Anyways, despite you only having joined the game a little while ago you have talked very little, and not even given any analysis or questioned anyone.

I think you are lurking, perhaps trying to act inactive. Maybe you think we'll accuse each other before we'll accuse an inactive member I don't know.

Defend yourself.

You've given no proper reasoning as to why you haven't posted much besides "just starting the game", but you could easily join in at this point.
Nolite Timere
bladerunner060
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7/25/2013 12:28:20 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 11:34:20 PM, xXCryptoXx wrote:
At 7/24/2013 5:39:56 PM, Noctan wrote:
I actually am just a vanilla. And Lan? How can you know the exact number of mafia?

The game started with 2 Mafia, and 2 people have died and were confirmed as townies, so there are still 2 mafia.

Ah, so you're just a vanilla?

If you were Mafia saying you were vanilla then it is either

a. A super newb way to show you are vanilla, which automatically makes people suspicious that you are Mafia

b. You actually are a vanilla but you are playing it terribly by right out saying you're a vanilla.

Why is that so bad? I mean, 1, it's assumed since there's only vanilla townies, and 2, we all assume none of us believe the others, so saying it seems dumb but what else do they say? And Lannan did say he was VTL'ing for claim, which would mean in principle Noctan has to respond Vanilla Town (or, so the implicit threat goes, get lynched).

c. Making us think that a mafia wouldn't say they are a vanilla because that makes us suspicious that you are mafia, therefore making us think you're not mafia when you really are...

Maybe I'm thinking too much on this sense it just gets into "Rock Paper Scissors How to Win" reasoning.

Anyways, despite you only having joined the game a little while ago you have talked very little, and not even given any analysis or questioned anyone.

I think you are lurking, perhaps trying to act inactive. Maybe you think we'll accuse each other before we'll accuse an inactive member I don't know.

Defend yourself.

You've given no proper reasoning as to why you haven't posted much besides "just starting the game", but you could easily join in at this point.
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bladerunner060
Posts: 7,126
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7/25/2013 12:55:47 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 6:32:29 PM, xXCryptoXx wrote:

Bladerunner, from what I've seen you're our best analyst so what do you think? Give us something like you gave in the last Day Phase.

Lol. I'm clearly verbose. But I think our best analyst would be the one who was RIGHT, and I clearly wasn't.

The only reason you top my list is because of that little ding from the last day phase. Minor at best, but if I'm ignoring Lannan as too smart for me, and have literally no idea how to quantify quietness, that's why I put you up. But Lannan has me thinking about it. I guess we need to talk more as a group, and try to get the quiet ones speaking, so we can start getting a read. And if they won't maybe lynch 'em on general principles.
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Cermank
Posts: 3,773
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7/25/2013 3:12:27 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/24/2013 5:37:02 PM, lannan13 wrote:
Bladerunner since you're here what are your reads?


Mine from top being most likely scum to the bottom.

1. YYW/ Notcom
2. Cenmark
3. Cyrpto
4. Bladerunner

If we lynch YYW/ Notcom and he's mafia then it's likely that Cyrto is since he was defending him last day phase stating that he couldn't be since he was being replaced. But with that said it doesn't rule out Cenmark for his inactivity.

First off, I'm really sorry for the inactivity. Some unexpected work stuff cropped up, apart from my college starting, so I kind of got too much to work on all of the sudden.

I am really lost now. I thought YYW would have been a good bet if there was some logic to the way mafia was chosen. I don't really see how we pinpoint the mafia now.

Daytona would have been my next bet, but he was killed.

We have four now, the only reason we pinpointed Crypto in the last game was because he didn't know we couldn't PM people. It doesn't look that strong a reason now. I really think the only person we can look at now is lannan, considering he did kill the town member without a proper consensus and all. But again, it might have been a genuine mistake or a clever mafia acting like a noob.

My list would go something like:
1. Lannan
2. Natcom
3. Crypto
4. Blade.
xXCryptoXx
Posts: 5,000
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7/25/2013 7:50:29 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I say we should get Nacton to talk a bit more before we jump to the people that are actually trying to find the Mafia.

I assume that one of the advantages to lurking is watching the people participating in the game tear each other apart.
Nolite Timere