Total Posts:237|Showing Posts:1-30|Last Page
Jump to topic:

BEGINNERS 15.3 - Day Phase 2

drafterman
Posts: 18,870
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 7:18:16 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Lynched Last Phase:
Crypto - Cop - Town

Died Last Night:
No One

Living Players:
1. bladerunner
2. Beginner
3. Cermank
4. Noctan
5. TN05 (Lannan)
6. daytona
7. HatStand

TN05 has replaced Lannan

With 7 players, it takes 4 votes to lynch.
This DP will end no lather than 8/2 at 07:00 AM DDO Time.
Cermank
Posts: 3,773
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 10:38:22 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Anyway, considering we decided we won't ask for roles in the last DP, I'll confess I have my doubts on beginner. Apart from the fact that he all but heralded the mislynch in the last DP, he seems to be uncharacteristically aggressive in this game. I like how he went all 'I know Hatstand is the mafia' during the vestiges of the last DP. I'd like to see his reasoning for the same and then decide, but presently, my suspicion for him is at a all time high, especially because I haven't seen any evidence for even a claim on Hatstand. I believe he did that to test the air before trying to lynch another townie.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 10:55:14 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 10:15:13 AM, Cermank wrote:
No one died? How does that work?

My best guess would be we have a doctor or bulletproof.

At 7/31/2013 10:38:22 AM, Cermank wrote:
Anyway, considering we decided we won't ask for roles in the last DP, I'll confess I have my doubts on beginner. Apart from the fact that he all but heralded the mislynch in the last DP, he seems to be uncharacteristically aggressive in this game. I like how he went all 'I know Hatstand is the mafia' during the vestiges of the last DP. I'd like to see his reasoning for the same and then decide, but presently, my suspicion for him is at a all time high, especially because I haven't seen any evidence for even a claim on Hatstand. I believe he did that to test the air before trying to lynch another townie.

I second your suspicions on Beginner; he needs to explain himself pretty good IMO.

Even with that, though, it is too early for voting. We got very, very lucky nobody was killed last night - right now, we should have 2 mafia and 5 town (including 3rd parties). One bad mislynch opens the door for the mafia to get within one vote of a 50/50 split.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 12:25:26 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Summary of what happened:
I baited the mafia lynch by calling out the mafia, Hatstand in DP1, NP1, Hatstand and another (maybe 2 others) try to get me nightkilled, and my bulletproof protects me.
I had several scum reads on Hatstand based on thought inconsistency.

There it is folks, Hatstand is pretty much confirmed mafia.

In round 1, I explicitly said "Hatstand is mafia, I will explain next Day Phase."
Why would I do this? IF Hatstand were truly mafia, wouldn't this automatically get me nightkilled?
The fact is, yes, this would NORMALLY have gotten me nightkilled. However, there is one point that hatstand does not know about me : I am bulletproof
By explicitly stating : "Hatstand is mafia." I was making a gambit. I was baiting that nightkill from hatstand and her fellow mafia (of course, if hatstand weren't mafia, the results may have been different).
I can provide reasons from my mafia read, but, honestly I am pretty lazy and just the fact that no one was nightkilled last night (I'm bulletproof), PROVES that hatstand is mafia.

VTL HatStand
Senpai has noticed you.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 12:35:05 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I mean, I could easily have explained why I thought she was mafia last day phase, but I had to leave the thing open ended for the following reasons:
1) By making the assertive statement calling out Hatstand's mafia status, I give the mafia reasonable cause to assume I have very good reason to get Hatstand lynched (not good for them)
2) Since I have not given the reason ("I will explain next day phase"), wouldn't it be convenient to shut me down before I said anything. At this point they were probably thinking : 'this guy's an idiot,he should have just voiced all his analysis before giving us the chance to kill him'
3) I am bulletproof.
Also there was the fact that Hatstand was on the entire time (stalked her profile) immediately after I had declared her mafia. It took her more than an entire hour to respond to this allegation. Probably talking to her scum buddy about what to do (omg, Beginner made such a frighteningly accurate analysis, what should we do??).
There could only be one thing to do: Nightkill beginner.
*Dons bulletproof armor
NOPE!
Senpai has noticed you.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 12:42:34 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 10:38:22 AM, Cermank wrote:
Anyway, considering we decided we won't ask for roles in the last DP, I'll confess I have my doubts on beginner. Apart from the fact that he all but heralded the mislynch in the last DP, he seems to be uncharacteristically aggressive in this game. I like how he went all 'I know Hatstand is the mafia' during the vestiges of the last DP. I'd like to see his reasoning for the same and then decide, but presently, my suspicion for him is at a all time high, especially because I haven't seen any evidence for even a claim on Hatstand. I believe he did that to test the air before trying to lynch another townie.

Also, I had very good reason to assume Crypto was not town. This guy was making some pretty bad lies (just go back to the last thread, even) that pretty much lead up to his own mislynch, Honestly I feel bad about mislynching him, but when you make such statements as : "The formatting is wrong!" when it was not (completely unnecessary lie, as if this guy were desperately grasping for quantitative evidence to prove himself not guilty, thus making himself look even more guilty).
Yes we mislynched Crypto, but we had good reason to do so.

For now, just lynch Hatstand and get this over with. My second suspect is Daytona, but I'm not as sure about this guy as I was about Hatstand (not even close).
Senpai has noticed you.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 12:58:38 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 12:42:34 PM, Beginner wrote:
At 7/31/2013 10:38:22 AM, Cermank wrote:
Anyway, considering we decided we won't ask for roles in the last DP, I'll confess I have my doubts on beginner. Apart from the fact that he all but heralded the mislynch in the last DP, he seems to be uncharacteristically aggressive in this game. I like how he went all 'I know Hatstand is the mafia' during the vestiges of the last DP. I'd like to see his reasoning for the same and then decide, but presently, my suspicion for him is at a all time high, especially because I haven't seen any evidence for even a claim on Hatstand. I believe he did that to test the air before trying to lynch another townie.

Also, I had very good reason to assume Crypto was not town. This guy was making some pretty bad lies (just go back to the last thread, even) that pretty much lead up to his own mislynch, Honestly I feel bad about mislynching him, but when you make such statements as : "The formatting is wrong!" when it was not (completely unnecessary lie, as if this guy were desperately grasping for quantitative evidence to prove himself not guilty) you end up making yourself look more guilty than you previously were.
Yes we mislynched Crypto, but we had good reason to do so.

For now, just lynch Hatstand and get this over with. My second suspect is Daytona, but I'm not as sure about this guy as I was about Hatstand (not even close).

*fixed
Senpai has noticed you.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 1:21:40 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I have nothing to do, might as well give my original reasoning for thinking Hatstand mafia.
1. Although this game is closed setup, I think there are several things that are probably true. One, there are probably only two mafia. With the existence of a 3rd party (explicitly told to us by drafter), having more than 2 mafia was skew the balance of the game against the town.

2. Crypto comes out as 3rd party, makes several self-incriminating lies. At this point, we could and did reasonably believe that Crypto was anti-town (sorry crypto, you really screwed up that one).

3. I point out these things about Crypto's posts. I even explain (many times) why leaving a 3rd party would benefit the mafia more than it would the town (MYLO/LYLO = nearly ensured win for mafia)

4. Hatstand defends(why, why?) Crypto, and ignores my reasoning. She was going to such lengths to get us to justify lynching crypto when the evidence was all there? I refuse to believe that she did not see any of the fallacies within Crypto's statements. I think at this point we were reasonably assuming Crypto a 3rd party (at least I was). This is where I first had a FingerOfSuspicion (FOS) on Hatstand. The only motives I can see for defending Crypto are either based on sheer ignorance (Hatstand does not hit me as ignorant as she had obviously followed the previous posts) or mafia affiliation.

5. Hatstand suddenly 'gets' it : Crypto must be lynched for the sake of the town. And spoke as if she had gotten it all the time. The contradictory transition was horribly executed. If Hatstand truly believed Crypto's defense was justified prior to suddenly understanding, she would not be as assertively certain. I expected her to say something like: "Oh well, I guess, I can kind of see your reasoning, I think, VTL Crypto" or something like that. No, she had to act as if she knew the entire time.
Noctan wrote: "The formatting got me. The mafia probably wouldn't kill him anyway so they could wipe us out faster."
Hatstand responds: "Precisely. It might be different in a bigger game, but any non-town killer is an asset to the mafia."
This confused me. Previously, Hatstand was utterly oblivious (intentionally falsified ignorance?) and now she's an expert on this?

At this point I had Hatstand tabbed as very likely a member of the mafia.
Now how to confirm? I knew I was bulletproof, I knew that, by calling out a mafia assertively, I take the high risk of getting myself nightkilled, and the rest is history.
Senpai has noticed you.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 1:24:53 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 12:25:26 PM, Beginner wrote:
Summary of what happened:
I baited the mafia lynch by calling out the mafia, Hatstand in DP1, NP1, Hatstand and another (maybe 2 others) try to get me nightkilled, and my bulletproof protects me.
I had several scum reads on Hatstand based on thought inconsistency.

There it is folks, Hatstand is pretty much confirmed mafia.

In round 1, I explicitly said "Hatstand is mafia, I will explain next Day Phase."
Why would I do this? IF Hatstand were truly mafia, wouldn't this automatically get me nightkilled?
The fact is, yes, this would NORMALLY have gotten me nightkilled. However, there is one point that hatstand does not know about me : I am bulletproof
By explicitly stating : "Hatstand is mafia." I was making a gambit. I was baiting that nightkill from hatstand and her fellow mafia (of course, if hatstand weren't mafia, the results may have been different).
I can provide reasons from my mafia read, but, honestly I am pretty lazy and just the fact that no one was nightkilled last night (I'm bulletproof), PROVES that hatstand is mafia.

VTL HatStand

If what you are saying is correct, that is an excellent plan and excellent use of bulletproof. I'm not going to vote just yet, to give Hatstand a chance to explain herself, but I think you answered a lot of questions here.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 1:26:26 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
And then there was the fact that she explicitly mentioned the transition in thought:
"Sorry for the rapid change of view. I hadn't thought it over properly, and was just trying to make sure we didn't rush into anything. Then I went back and read over everything again."
Innocent? No.
She was well aware that such a sudden change in thought would make her a target of suspicion. Only a mafia member would actively think in lines of 'would this make me look suspicious?'. This apology was completely unnecessary.
Senpai has noticed you.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 1:28:15 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 1:26:26 PM, Beginner wrote:
And then there was the fact that she explicitly mentioned the transition in thought:
"Sorry for the rapid change of view. I hadn't thought it over properly, and was just trying to make sure we didn't rush into anything. Then I went back and read over everything again."
Innocent? No.
She was well aware that such a sudden change in thought would make her a target of suspicion. Only a mafia member would actively think in lines of 'would this make me look suspicious?'. This apology was completely unnecessary.

Hatstand should have just said something along the lines of: "Oh I get it, so.....etc." Instead of 'sorry that I'm changing my mind' which implies a suspiciously conscientious behavior/thought pattern.
Senpai has noticed you.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 1:46:39 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 1:24:53 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 7/31/2013 12:25:26 PM, Beginner wrote:
Summary of what happened:
I baited the mafia lynch by calling out the mafia, Hatstand in DP1, NP1, Hatstand and another (maybe 2 others) try to get me nightkilled, and my bulletproof protects me.
I had several scum reads on Hatstand based on thought inconsistency.

There it is folks, Hatstand is pretty much confirmed mafia.

In round 1, I explicitly said "Hatstand is mafia, I will explain next Day Phase."
Why would I do this? IF Hatstand were truly mafia, wouldn't this automatically get me nightkilled?
The fact is, yes, this would NORMALLY have gotten me nightkilled. However, there is one point that hatstand does not know about me : I am bulletproof
By explicitly stating : "Hatstand is mafia." I was making a gambit. I was baiting that nightkill from hatstand and her fellow mafia (of course, if hatstand weren't mafia, the results may have been different).
I can provide reasons from my mafia read, but, honestly I am pretty lazy and just the fact that no one was nightkilled last night (I'm bulletproof), PROVES that hatstand is mafia.

VTL HatStand

If what you are saying is correct, that is an excellent plan and excellent use of bulletproof. I'm not going to vote just yet, to give Hatstand a chance to explain herself, but I think you answered a lot of questions here.

I'm not exactly sure what she'd say to defend her currently weak standing. Obviously she'd deny this if anything (maybe following up on your suspicion on me). She is mafia after all (I'm positive). Of course, she could deny and say: "Maybe a doctor doctored someone random and got lucky, therefore beginner is lying." But this alternative is horrendously improbable. There is very good reason to assume that I was the nightkill target since no one died during the NP and I am bulletproof. That a random success doctor with me NOT being the nightkill target occurred is both unlikely and hard to believe anyway. Honestly, I don't think there is anything left for her to say with such evidence stacked against her.
Senpai has noticed you.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 1:49:52 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
1. There is only one reason I would be the nightkill target (instead of anyone else) : I posed a threat to the mafia.
2. There is only one thing I've said that potentially threatens mafia : "Hatstand is mafia"
therefore
Hatstand is mafia.
Senpai has noticed you.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 3:26:18 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 1:46:39 PM, Beginner wrote:
At 7/31/2013 1:24:53 PM, TN05 wrote:
At 7/31/2013 12:25:26 PM, Beginner wrote:
Summary of what happened:
I baited the mafia lynch by calling out the mafia, Hatstand in DP1, NP1, Hatstand and another (maybe 2 others) try to get me nightkilled, and my bulletproof protects me.
I had several scum reads on Hatstand based on thought inconsistency.

There it is folks, Hatstand is pretty much confirmed mafia.

In round 1, I explicitly said "Hatstand is mafia, I will explain next Day Phase."
Why would I do this? IF Hatstand were truly mafia, wouldn't this automatically get me nightkilled?
The fact is, yes, this would NORMALLY have gotten me nightkilled. However, there is one point that hatstand does not know about me : I am bulletproof
By explicitly stating : "Hatstand is mafia." I was making a gambit. I was baiting that nightkill from hatstand and her fellow mafia (of course, if hatstand weren't mafia, the results may have been different).
I can provide reasons from my mafia read, but, honestly I am pretty lazy and just the fact that no one was nightkilled last night (I'm bulletproof), PROVES that hatstand is mafia.

VTL HatStand

If what you are saying is correct, that is an excellent plan and excellent use of bulletproof. I'm not going to vote just yet, to give Hatstand a chance to explain herself, but I think you answered a lot of questions here.

I'm not exactly sure what she'd say to defend her currently weak standing. Obviously she'd deny this if anything (maybe following up on your suspicion on me). She is mafia after all (I'm positive). Of course, she could deny and say: "Maybe a doctor doctored someone random and got lucky, therefore beginner is lying." But this alternative is horrendously improbable. There is very good reason to assume that I was the nightkill target since no one died during the NP and I am bulletproof. That a random success doctor with me NOT being the nightkill target occurred is both unlikely and hard to believe anyway. Honestly, I don't think there is anything left for her to say with such evidence stacked against her.

I understand the argument you are making, but this is mafia: you can't trust anybody. If she has a very weak argument, like you say she will, than my decision to vote for her should be rather easy.
Hatstand
Posts: 2,673
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 3:51:46 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 1:49:52 PM, Beginner wrote:
1. There is only one reason I would be the nightkill target (instead of anyone else) : I posed a threat to the mafia.
2. There is only one thing I've said that potentially threatens mafia : "Hatstand is mafia"
therefore
Hatstand is mafia.

This reasoning does not work. You'd have to be an idiot to lynch someone who said they knew you were Mafia, as it would be the last nail in the coffin. Do I seem that stupid to you? If the mafia targeted you, I think they must have done it to ensure I would get mislynched in this round, thereby giving them one more night phase and one less townie.

At 7/31/2013 1:21:40 PM, Beginner wrote:
I have nothing to do, might as well give my original reasoning for thinking Hatstand mafia.
1. Although this game is closed setup, I think there are several things that are probably true. One, there are probably only two mafia. With the existence of a 3rd party (explicitly told to us by drafter), having more than 2 mafia was skew the balance of the game against the town.

2. Crypto comes out as 3rd party, makes several self-incriminating lies. At this point, we could and did reasonably believe that Crypto was anti-town (sorry crypto, you really screwed up that one).

3. I point out these things about Crypto's posts. I even explain (many times) why leaving a 3rd party would benefit the mafia more than it would the town (MYLO/LYLO = nearly ensured win for mafia)

4. Hatstand defends(why, why?) Crypto, and ignores my reasoning. She was going to such lengths to get us to justify lynching crypto when the evidence was all there? I refuse to believe that she did not see any of the fallacies within Crypto's statements. I think at this point we were reasonably assuming Crypto a 3rd party (at least I was). This is where I first had a FingerOfSuspicion (FOS) on Hatstand. The only motives I can see for defending Crypto are either based on sheer ignorance (Hatstand does not hit me as ignorant as she had obviously followed the previous posts) or mafia affiliation.

I haven't, actually. I read the intro's to both rounds, to try and pick up on this version of the game, but I didn't read everything you said. The reason I'm kind of familiar with all this is because I've played a different version if Mafia in the past.

5. Hatstand suddenly 'gets' it : Crypto must be lynched for the sake of the town. And spoke as if she had gotten it all the time. The contradictory transition was horribly executed. If Hatstand truly believed Crypto's defense was justified prior to suddenly understanding, she would not be as assertively certain. I expected her to say something like: "Oh well, I guess, I can kind of see your reasoning, I think, VTL Crypto" or something like that. No, she had to act as if she knew the entire time.
Noctan wrote: "The formatting got me. The mafia probably wouldn't kill him anyway so they could wipe us out faster."
Hatstand responds: "Precisely. It might be different in a bigger game, but any non-town killer is an asset to the mafia."

I wasn't responding to Noctan there. That was posted while I was typing my response. There'll probably be heaps more i have to respond to by the time I finish this.

This confused me. Previously, Hatstand was utterly oblivious (intentionally falsified ignorance?) and now she's an expert on this?

At this point I had Hatstand tabbed as very likely a member of the mafia.
Now how to confirm? I knew I was bulletproof, I knew that, by calling out a mafia assertively, I take the high risk of getting myself nightkilled, and the rest is history.

Also, the reason for my sudden change of opinion? I checked my email. I noticed the thread was up. I noticed how many votes there were (having skimmed over the longer posts), and panicked. I didn't know what was going on and I thought we were being way too hasty. So I did what I could to stop the lynch in its tracks. Then I went back and read the whole thread, saw the merit to your reasoning, did a further analysis myself (which I posted) factoring the extra night kill. There is no way I would have turned my tune around when I did if I was initially trying to protect Crypto. In the space between my two opinions, no one started agreeing with you. All that had changed was that I had convinced Noctan to unvote. If that was my plan, it was working perfectly. But I turned around with no change in the sway of the votes, so I had to have a motive outside. My motive was this: I realised that if Crypto was the SK, it was game over for us. I couldn't bring myself to take that risk.

By your train of thought, I think Noctan is the most suspicious. He jumped on the bandwagon when it looked, at first, like a force of nature, but was quick to take my flimsy evidence as an excuse to back out. Then, when it became clear that Crypto was going to be lynched, he went backs to following the crowd.

At 7/31/2013 10:38:22 AM, Cermank wrote:
Anyway, considering we decided we won't ask for roles in the last DP, I'll confess I have my doubts on beginner. Apart from the fact that he all but heralded the mislynch in the last DP, he seems to be uncharacteristically aggressive in this game. I like how he went all 'I know Hatstand is the mafia' during the vestiges of the last DP. I'd like to see his reasoning for the same and then decide, but presently, my suspicion for him is at a all time high, especially because I haven't seen any evidence for even a claim on Hatstand. I believe he did that to test the air before trying to lynch another townie.

And Cermank, just because we were wrong about Cypto doesn't mean Beginner is Scum for leading the lynch. It wasn't so much a case of "this guy is definitely lying" as "if this guy is the SK, then it's game over. According to Beginner's analysis (and mine) we could not afford to have a second night killer on the loose. He's not clear, but after last round the last thing we should know that sometimes it might be better to reason everything out before we lynch. Wanting to protect the town from an imminent MYLO is, in my opinion, a perfectly valid and unsuspicious motive.

On a side note: did I explain why I had changed my tune so quickly to delicately avoid suspicion? YES! The fact of the after is (I also read the starting posts on the endgames. Do you see a trend?) you guys haven't managed to win a round for town at all yet. In fact, judging by the fact that there are only two mafia to start with, I'd say you've never lynched right at all. I'm sorry if this seems scathing, but it's why I felt it very necessary to avoid making myself suspicious, and avoid getting mislynched.
Hatstand
Posts: 2,673
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 3:58:13 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Correction. I was responding to Noctan. I thought that was an earlier post, but I just went back to double check. Turns out it wasn't the part of the conversation I thought.
Hatstand
Posts: 2,673
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 4:07:12 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Also there was the fact that Hatstand was on the entire time (stalked her profile) immediately after I had declared her mafia. It took her more than an entire hour to respond to this allegation. Probably talking to her scum buddy about what to do (omg, Beginner made such a frighteningly accurate analysis, what should we do??).
There could only be one thing to do: Nightkill beginner.
*Dons bulletproof armor
NOPE!

Also, I go on this site using my iPad, which means that everything is always running in the background, even when the device is sleeping. I wasn't online as such, it was just showing that I was because I hadn't actually signed out (which I might have to make a habit of in the future, if this is what's going to happen) when I put the device to sleep. I responded to your post the moment I saw it, and my response was based on the fact that, seeing as I am innocent, I was interested in your reasoning. Your logic from the last round was sound, so I wanted to see what you could pull up, and if I could prove my innocence against it. I've always liked a challenge.
Hatstand
Posts: 2,673
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 4:22:15 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Actually, I thought what you did last round with accusing me was rather ingenious. I didn't know you were bullet proof (obviously) but I thought that they would probably lynch Daytona, unless Daytona was mafia, which I knew was a possibility, because he made a soft claim on the Doctor role. He said "That's assuming the doc protects you" and "docs don't protect scum", which is pretty pretentious for someone who isn't the Doctor themselves. That meant that he was pretty high on the night kill list. Considering the mafia thought you would have me lynched in the next day phase, which was likely since you led the lynch on the last one, meant that they wouldn't target you or I, because our continued presence would ensure another mislynch. That way, from our perspective, if Daytona survived, he was most likely scum.

It was only later (the next morning) when I realised they might target you to frame me, so that put a bit of a hole in that plan.

Clearly, my thoughts need time to percolate.
Hatstand
Posts: 2,673
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 4:26:44 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
While I'm here, I'll add this:

Unless Beginner is mafia, the next town vote against me is essentially the hammer, seeing as there are two mafia who can then seal the deal and ensure I get mislynched. I'm not saying don't suspect me. I can't ask for that. Your thoughts are your own. But don't vote unless you're really certain.

Now, I shall go and have breakfast. I shall appear to be online, seeing as I won't log out for a 20 minute absence, but that is because I am using my iPad, not because I am lurking. Cya in 20 minutes.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 5:08:21 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 3:51:46 PM, Hatstand wrote:
At 7/31/2013 1:49:52 PM, Beginner wrote:
1. There is only one reason I would be the nightkill target (instead of anyone else) : I posed a threat to the mafia.
2. There is only one thing I've said that potentially threatens mafia : "Hatstand is mafia"
therefore
Hatstand is mafia.

This reasoning does not work. You'd have to be an idiot to lynch someone who said they knew you were Mafia, as it would be the last nail in the coffin. Do I seem that stupid to you? If the mafia targeted you, I think they must have done it to ensure I would get mislynched in this round, thereby giving them one more night phase and one less townie.
You think??? This only functions based on the assumption that the mafia knew or had reasonable evidence to think that I was bulletproof. Why else would there not be a death this round? Alright, look at it this way: as a player, I've been leading mislynches, for the mafia (you), that'd be beneficial wouldn't it? Obviously, with my mislynch on Crypto, you'd have no reason to kill me, even unto wanting to keep me alive. There is ONLY ONE statement I've made that directly points at mafia : "Hatstand is mafia, I'll explain next day phase". The fact is that if I were wrong about Hatstand being mafia, the mafia would have wanted to keep me alive so it can watch me pit myself against Hatstand in Day Phase 2. The end result: a dead townie. HOWEVER, in the case that I am right about Hatstand being mafia, the only logical thing for the mafia to do was to night kill me. And that is exactly what they did (seeing that no one died last night phase). This means that Hatstand is mafia hands down.

At 7/31/2013 1:21:40 PM, Beginner wrote:
I have nothing to do, might as well give my original reasoning for thinking Hatstand mafia.
1. Although this game is closed setup, I think there are several things that are probably true. One, there are probably only two mafia. With the existence of a 3rd party (explicitly told to us by drafter), having more than 2 mafia was skew the balance of the game against the town.

2. Crypto comes out as 3rd party, makes several self-incriminating lies. At this point, we could and did reasonably believe that Crypto was anti-town (sorry crypto, you really screwed up that one).

3. I point out these things about Crypto's posts. I even explain (many times) why leaving a 3rd party would benefit the mafia more than it would the town (MYLO/LYLO = nearly ensured win for mafia)

4. Hatstand defends(why, why?) Crypto, and ignores my reasoning. She was going to such lengths to get us to justify lynching crypto when the evidence was all there? I refuse to believe that she did not see any of the fallacies within Crypto's statements. I think at this point we were reasonably assuming Crypto a 3rd party (at least I was). This is where I first had a FingerOfSuspicion (FOS) on Hatstand. The only motives I can see for defending Crypto are either based on sheer ignorance (Hatstand does not hit me as ignorant as she had obviously followed the previous posts) or mafia affiliation.

I haven't, actually. I read the intro's to both rounds, to try and pick up on this version of the game, but I didn't read everything you said. The reason I'm kind of familiar with all this is because I've played a different version if Mafia in the past.

5. Hatstand suddenly 'gets' it : Crypto must be lynched for the sake of the town. And spoke as if she had gotten it all the time. The contradictory transition was horribly executed. If Hatstand truly believed Crypto's defense was justified prior to suddenly understanding, she would not be as assertively certain. I expected her to say something like: "Oh well, I guess, I can kind of see your reasoning, I think, VTL Crypto" or something like that. No, she had to act as if she knew the entire time.
Noctan wrote: "The formatting got me. The mafia probably wouldn't kill him anyway so they could wipe us out faster."
Hatstand responds: "Precisely. It might be different in a bigger game, but any non-town killer is an asset to the mafia."

I wasn't responding to Noctan there. That was posted while I was typing my response. There'll probably be heaps more i have to respond to by the time I finish this.

This confused me. Previously, Hatstand was utterly oblivious (intentionally falsified ignorance?) and now she's an expert on this?

At this point I had Hatstand tabbed as very likely a member of the mafia.
Now how to confirm? I knew I was bulletproof, I knew that, by calling out a mafia assertively, I take the high risk of getting myself nightkilled, and the rest is history.

Also, the reason for my sudden change of opinion? I checked my email. I noticed the thread was up. I noticed how many votes there were (having skimmed over the longer posts), and panicked. I didn't know what was going on and I thought we were being way too hasty. So I did what I could to stop the lynch in its tracks. Then I went back and read the whole thread, saw the merit to your reasoning, did a further analysis myself (which I posted) factoring the extra night kill. There is no way I would have turned my tune around when I did if I was initially trying to protect Crypto. In the space between my two opinions, no one started agreeing with you. All that had changed was that I had convinced Noctan to unvote. If that was my plan, it was working perfectly. But I turned around with no change in the sway of the votes, so I had to have a motive outside. My motive was this: I realised that if Crypto was the SK, it was game over for us. I couldn't bring myself to take that risk.

By your train of thought, I think Noctan is the most suspicious. He jumped on the bandwagon when it looked, at first, like a force of nature, but was quick to take my flimsy evidence as an excuse to back out. Then, when it became clear that Crypto was going to be lynched, he went backs to following the crowd.

At 7/31/2013 10:38:22 AM, Cermank wrote:
Anyway, considering we decided we won't ask for roles in the last DP, I'll confess I have my doubts on beginner. Apart from the fact that he all but heralded the mislynch in the last DP, he seems to be uncharacteristically aggressive in this game. I like how he went all 'I know Hatstand is the mafia' during the vestiges of the last DP. I'd like to see his reasoning for the same and then decide, but presently, my suspicion for him is at a all time high, especially because I haven't seen any evidence for even a claim on Hatstand. I believe he did that to test the air before trying to lynch another townie.

And Cermank, just because we were wrong about Cypto doesn't mean Beginner is Scum for leading the lynch. It wasn't so much a case of "this guy is definitely lying" as "if this guy is the SK, then it's game over. According to Beginner's analysis (and mine) we could not afford to have a second night killer on the loose. He's not clear, but after last round the last thing we should know that sometimes it might be better to reason everything out before we lynch. Wanting to protect the town from an imminent MYLO is, in my opinion, a perfectly valid and unsuspicious motive.

On a side note: did I explain why I had changed my tune so quickly to delicately avoid suspicion? YES! The fact of the after is (I also read the starting posts on the endgames. Do you see a trend?) you guys haven't managed to win a round for town at all yet. In fact, judging by the fact that there are only two mafia to start with, I'd say you've never lynched right at all. I'm sorry if this seems scathing, but it's why I felt it very necessary to avoid making myself suspicious, and avoid getting mislynched.

My reasons for thinking you were mafia before this DP are just additives (to be honest I don't think you've adequately respond
Senpai has noticed you.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 5:18:33 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
The only reason I see Hatstand 'turning around' is because she had no other option. The Crypto lynch was going to happen eventually.

Drafterman's Rules of Mafia: 1. Lynch All Liars 2. Don't Trust Coincidences

That the mafia would make such a roundabout method of having me try to get Hatstand lynched this DP is very unlikely. Think of it this way:
If the mafia suspected I was bulletproof, it could nightkill anyone but me. It could ignore me, and I'd still present my evidence against Hatstand this DP2.
So this is our current scenario:
5 nonmafia & 2 mafia, with me pushing Hatstand's lynch.
In the scenario that the mafia had not tried to kill me and had killed someone else (say, Cermank):
4 nonmafia & 2 mafia, with me pushing Hatstand's lynch.
If the mafia truly suspected I was bulletproof, would it attempt a nightkill on me? Hell no. It would have nightkilled anyone else but me.
Hatstand's reasoning falls short. She is mafia.
Senpai has noticed you.
Hatstand
Posts: 2,673
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 5:20:09 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
This reasoning does not work. You'd have to be an idiot to lynch someone who said they knew you were Mafia, as it would be the last nail in the coffin. Do I seem that stupid to you? If the mafia targeted you, I think they must have done it to ensure I would get mislynched in this round, thereby giving them one more night phase and one less townie.
You think??? This only functions based on the assumption that the mafia knew or had reasonable evidence to think that I was bulletproof. Why else would there not be a death this round? Alright, look at it this way: as a player, I've been leading mislynches, for the mafia (you), that'd be beneficial wouldn't it? Obviously, with my mislynch on Crypto, you'd have no reason to kill me, even unto wanting to keep me alive. There is ONLY ONE statement I've made that directly points at mafia : "Hatstand is mafia, I'll explain next day phase". The fact is that if I were wrong about Hatstand being mafia, the mafia would have wanted to keep me alive so it can watch me pit myself against Hatstand in Day Phase 2. The end result: a dead townie. HOWEVER, in the case that I am right about Hatstand being mafia, the only logical thing for the mafia to do was to night kill me. And that is exactly what they did (seeing that no one died last night phase). This means that Hatstand is mafia hands down.

Sorry, are you saying that if you had died last night, the suspicion wouldn't be on me? With or without you to lead the lynch, I could have been lynched for that. No. The only thing that could have resulted from you being targeted last night was my being thought to be Mafia.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 5:21:40 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 5:20:09 PM, Hatstand wrote:
This reasoning does not work. You'd have to be an idiot to lynch someone who said they knew you were Mafia, as it would be the last nail in the coffin. Do I seem that stupid to you? If the mafia targeted you, I think they must have done it to ensure I would get mislynched in this round, thereby giving them one more night phase and one less townie.
You think??? This only functions based on the assumption that the mafia knew or had reasonable evidence to think that I was bulletproof. Why else would there not be a death this round? Alright, look at it this way: as a player, I've been leading mislynches, for the mafia (you), that'd be beneficial wouldn't it? Obviously, with my mislynch on Crypto, you'd have no reason to kill me, even unto wanting to keep me alive. There is ONLY ONE statement I've made that directly points at mafia : "Hatstand is mafia, I'll explain next day phase". The fact is that if I were wrong about Hatstand being mafia, the mafia would have wanted to keep me alive so it can watch me pit myself against Hatstand in Day Phase 2. The end result: a dead townie. HOWEVER, in the case that I am right about Hatstand being mafia, the only logical thing for the mafia to do was to night kill me. And that is exactly what they did (seeing that no one died last night phase). This means that Hatstand is mafia hands down.

Sorry, are you saying that if you had died last night, the suspicion wouldn't be on me? With or without you to lead the lynch, I could have been lynched for that. No. The only thing that could have resulted from you being targeted last night was my being thought to be Mafia.

My post above this one explains. Good game Hatstand.
Senpai has noticed you.
Hatstand
Posts: 2,673
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 5:24:03 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 7/31/2013 5:21:40 PM, Beginner wrote:
At 7/31/2013 5:20:09 PM, Hatstand wrote:
This reasoning does not work. You'd have to be an idiot to lynch someone who said they knew you were Mafia, as it would be the last nail in the coffin. Do I seem that stupid to you? If the mafia targeted you, I think they must have done it to ensure I would get mislynched in this round, thereby giving them one more night phase and one less townie.
You think??? This only functions based on the assumption that the mafia knew or had reasonable evidence to think that I was bulletproof. Why else would there not be a death this round? Alright, look at it this way: as a player, I've been leading mislynches, for the mafia (you), that'd be beneficial wouldn't it? Obviously, with my mislynch on Crypto, you'd have no reason to kill me, even unto wanting to keep me alive. There is ONLY ONE statement I've made that directly points at mafia : "Hatstand is mafia, I'll explain next day phase". The fact is that if I were wrong about Hatstand being mafia, the mafia would have wanted to keep me alive so it can watch me pit myself against Hatstand in Day Phase 2. The end result: a dead townie. HOWEVER, in the case that I am right about Hatstand being mafia, the only logical thing for the mafia to do was to night kill me. And that is exactly what they did (seeing that no one died last night phase). This means that Hatstand is mafia hands down.

Sorry, are you saying that if you had died last night, the suspicion wouldn't be on me? With or without you to lead the lynch, I could have been lynched for that. No. The only thing that could have resulted from you being targeted last night was my being thought to be Mafia.

My post above this one explains. Good game Hatstand.

How? I don't follow your reasoning at all. Tell me, in simple terms, how I could have come out of a night phase where someone who said I was Scum was targeted and not look suspicious.
Beginner
Posts: 4,292
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
7/31/2013 5:24:44 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Honestly, Hatstand, you're pretty darned good. If you hadn't tried to nightkill me, I don't think I would have been able to convince the other players to place their vote on you (although I thought my pre-DP2 reasoning was good enough).
Senpai has noticed you.