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WhiteFlag Nightless Chosen Mafia DP1

F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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8/26/2013 9:30:42 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Time/Deadlines
Days will last 96 hours. There are no night phases although if players want, I will start the next DP after a 24 hour break.

The first occurrence in the game when the deadline is reached without a majority, the day will extend for another 24 hours. The second time it happens (whether on the same or different day), it will extend for 12 hours. The third time, a chosen townie will be randomly "lynched" as decided by an RNG. From the fourth time onward, a random town-affiliated player will be "lynched" at deadline. In other words, if time runs out, it is a guaranteed mislynch.

If there is a replacement within 24 hours of the DPs end, the time will extend to 24 hours from the point of replacement.

Replacement policy
Please post at least once every 24 hours. If you do not post for 24 hours, you will receive a "prod" which is a friendly reminder from me to post in the game. If you don't post within 24 more hours of receiving the prod, I will start looking for a replacement to take your spot. Whether or not you get replaced depends on the availability of replacements, number of prods, you received and mod discretion.

Rules
1) Do not use encrypted keys, anagrams or any other form of external tactics or analysis beyond the confines of the game thread. If in doubt, please ask.
2) Do not quote communications outside the game thread, including role PMs, hydra PMs, etc., in the game thread. This also includes PM timestamps.
3) Do not copy-paste or screen capture any part of your role PM, or manufacture it in any way which would make it surely real.
4) This isn't a "rule" but please try to limit excessive quoting if possible, i.e. quoting huge blocks of text to add a line or two.

Setup
1) 4 Mafia Goons (will be provided a mafia PM)
2) 6 Vanilla Townies
3) 3 Chosen Townies (will receive Vanilla townie role PMs). Chosen Townies will not be told that they are chosen but the mafia will be told who the chosen townies are at the beginning of the game.

Game Mechanics
1) Nightless - Mafia do not have kills nor do any players have any night actions. The game is played entirely during the day.

2) Chosen - Pre-game, the mafia select one player in the game to veto. This player cannot be "chosen". 3 of the remaining 9 townies are randomly selected to be Chosen Townies. The Mafia are told who was Chosen, but the Chosen are not although they will flip as chosen upon death. They will receive vanilla townie role PMs. As long as all 3 Chosen Townies are alive, they cannot be endgamed (ie, 2, 3, or 4 Mafia vs. 3 Chosen is a town win). For the mafia to win, they must lynch at least one of the chosen townies in the course of the game.

3) Modified White Flag - The game ends when either mafia are reduced to one player, or the town are reduced to 4 players.

Win Conditions
If town are reduced to 4 members and at least one chosen townie has been lynched, mafia win. If no Chosen townie has been lynched, town win. If mafia are reduced to 1 member, town win.

Drafterman puts it very succinctly in the signups:
Mafia win condition: Lynch 5 Townies at least one of which must be Chosen.
Town win condition: Lynch 3 Mafia.

Active Players
1 Beginner
2 blackhawk1331
3 bladerunner060
4 Bullish
5 Bull_Diesel
6 daytonanerd
7 drafterman
8 JonMilne
9 Khaos_Mage
10 Logic_on_Rails
11 Noumena
12 TheAntidoter
13 Yraelz/FourTrouble

With 13 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

Time Limit: ~96 hours
DP ends 7:30 PM PST 6/30/2013 (Friday)
blackhawk1331
Posts: 4,932
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8/26/2013 9:51:43 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 9:45:34 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
VTL Jon

The scum are TA, Jon, Bull, and Khaos. If anyone thinks otherwise, string 'em up and let 'em hang.

I assume that by bull, you mean bull diesel. And what is your reasoning for this? How do we even go about a game like this where everyone is vanilla or a goon? Just random lynch the whole way through and pray for the best?
Because you said it was a waste, numb nuts. - Drafter

So fvck you. :) - TV

Use prima facie correctly or not at all. - Noumena
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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8/26/2013 10:01:45 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 9:45:34 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
VTL Jon

The scum are TA, Jon, Bull, and Khaos. If anyone thinks otherwise, string 'em up and let 'em hang.

I completely agree. Provided "Bull" is Bull_Diesel.

VTL Jon
0x5f3759df
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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8/26/2013 10:03:07 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:01:45 PM, Bullish wrote:
At 8/26/2013 9:45:34 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
VTL Jon

The scum are TA, Jon, Bull, and Khaos. If anyone thinks otherwise, string 'em up and let 'em hang.

I completely agree. Provided "Bull" is Bull_Diesel.

VTL Jon

JKJK

UNVOTE
0x5f3759df
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:04:47 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
With 13 players and 4 mafia, we have about a 30% chance of randomly lynching mafia. To win the game, given 5 potential mislynches and the need to lynch 3 mafia, we can aim for less than 50% accuracy in our lynches and still win. I'd say that's not bad odds. With that said, I'd like to lynch between TA, Jon, Bull, and Khaos. This narrows the game down to 4 people, and since I know I'm town, I know the chances of randomly hitting scum here is 33%. I'd say that's great odds for a D1 lynch, plus we get rid of someone who is utterly stupid and delusional (those 4 players).

Thoughts?
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:08:15 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I'd also recommend we completely ignore the "Chosen" issue here until someone actually flips as Chosen (are we told this?). If we let ourselves worry about who is Chosen, we're gonna have a lot of problems building a consensus.
Bull_Diesel
Posts: 1,955
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8/26/2013 10:17:27 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:08:15 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
I'd also recommend we completely ignore the "Chosen" issue here until someone actually flips as Chosen (are we told this?). If we let ourselves worry about who is Chosen, we're gonna have a lot of problems building a consensus.

...but the Chosen are not although they will flip as chosen upon death. They will receive vanilla townie role PMs.....

That's what the mod says about it in the OP.

mine just says vanilla
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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8/26/2013 10:19:28 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:17:27 PM, Bull_Diesel wrote:
mine just says vanilla

Seems legit. I think we need to hear from Khaos. I'm betting he is scum.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:20:39 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Further thoughts:

1. We need to build wagons if we hope to start producing content, which can then be used to start analyzing behaviors. It is OKAY to grasp at straws at this stage in the game. We don't have any information to work with so we need to pro-actively work at creating it.

2. Do not bring anyone to L-1 unless the town as a whole has agreed to lynch that person. We run the risk, if we put a Chosen townie at L-1, that a mafioso will quickhammer. When someone is at L-2, do not vote for the person unless 2 or more people have stated a desire to vote/hammer.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:21:33 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:19:28 PM, Yraelz wrote:
At 8/26/2013 10:17:27 PM, Bull_Diesel wrote:
mine just says vanilla

Seems legit. I think we need to hear from Khaos. I'm betting he is scum.

Ours says vanilla townie.

Unvote, VTL Diesel
Bull_Diesel
Posts: 1,955
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8/26/2013 10:22:59 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:21:33 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 8/26/2013 10:19:28 PM, Yraelz wrote:
At 8/26/2013 10:17:27 PM, Bull_Diesel wrote:
mine just says vanilla

Seems legit. I think we need to hear from Khaos. I'm betting he is scum.

Ours says vanilla townie.

Unvote, VTL Diesel

are we going to do this again? Can we just focus on finding scum this time?
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:27:31 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
3. Reasons to Vote for Bull:

1. He says his role is vanilla when actually we are vanilla townies.
2. He is not pro-actively looking for scum, and instead spends time answering questions for the mod, and speaking about himself. He is not analyzing the posts we have so far to create content.
3. He asks others to look for scum, instead of trying to figure out ways to catch them. This final point shows that he has no interest in personally looking for the scum, and therefore, is probably a sign that he already knows who they are.
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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8/26/2013 10:30:38 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:21:33 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 8/26/2013 10:19:28 PM, Yraelz wrote:
At 8/26/2013 10:17:27 PM, Bull_Diesel wrote:
mine just says vanilla

Seems legit. I think we need to hear from Khaos. I'm betting he is scum.

Ours says vanilla townie.

Unvote, VTL Diesel

This kind of confirms FT. Does this count as quoting the PM?
0x5f3759df
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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8/26/2013 10:31:03 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:24:28 PM, Bull_Diesel wrote:
why do you think Khaos is scum?

This proof will be simple. Either:
1. Khaos received a mafia role PM and is thus mafia.
or
2. Khaos received a town role PM but is planning on stalling this and the next four DPs out. He'll say something like, "I'm not claiming until I'm at L+2, and FourTrouble has agreed to leave DDO, and it's 2:13 a.m. eastern time." At which point I just consider him mafia by intention.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:32:23 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Bullish, what do you think of our case on Diesel, and our justification for believing Khaos is scum? Do you agree with any of the points we raise?
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:34:16 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Like I said earlier, we need to build wagons. If you think Bull-Diesel is town, start a counter-wagon. If you agree with us that he's the most likely to be scum, given our current amount of information, vote for him.
Bull_Diesel
Posts: 1,955
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8/26/2013 10:38:23 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
FT you know as well as I do that we got the same role pm, and that F-16 intentionally gave out all of the roles so that you couldn't do what you're doing now.

unvote, VTL FT for the contrived case.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:39:46 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Another thought: If we can establish 6 extremely strong town-reads,. We just lynch everyone else, and win. Even if we're wrong about one of these reads, we win since we only need to lynch 3 mafia.

We're town and Bullish is town. We got 2 down, 4 more to go and we win the game.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:40:36 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:38:23 PM, Bull_Diesel wrote:
FT you know as well as I do that we got the same role pm, and that F-16 intentionally gave out all of the roles so that you couldn't do what you're doing now.

If we got the "same" role PM, and you're town, why are you voting for me?
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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8/26/2013 10:41:11 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:30:38 PM, Bullish wrote:
This kind of confirms FT. Does this count as quoting the PM?

I'm afraid it does not confirm us. Bullish is town.

1. Bullish said this in the announcement PM:

At 8/25/2013 7:59:24 PM, Bullish wrote:
Is the "pre-game" phase in here?

The pre-game phase only applied to the mafia, as dictated by F16. Thus had Bullish been mafia he would likely have received indication in the mafia PM of their pre-game decision. Of course this could be an elaborate WIFOM ploy but...

2. F16 explicitly stated the win conditions of town and mafia in the announcement PM. Bullish's inattention to detail extends from my first point to here. He completely misses this. If he were mafia in this game then the only conceivable option is that he is in a role PM with Bull_Diesel and has decided to bus his team mate. This is inconceivable, Bullish is not an experienced enough to player to make such a snappy decision and also contrive two 'unkown' posts like he has done.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:42:36 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:39:46 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Another thought: If we can establish 6 extremely strong town-reads,. We just lynch everyone else, and win. Even if we're wrong about one of these reads, we win since we only need to lynch 3 mafia.

We're town and Bullish is town. We got 2 down, 4 more to go and we win the game.

Actually, we just need 5 town-reads. That means we need 3 more strong town-reads, and we can just start lynching everyone else.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:44:55 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
To Yraelz's points, you can also add Bullish's awkward sequence of voting for Jon and then retracting his vote. The total lack of care about how he comes off (scum wouldn't feel comfortable retracting a vote like that) is a massive town-tell.
Bull_Diesel
Posts: 1,955
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8/26/2013 10:47:38 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:40:36 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 8/26/2013 10:38:23 PM, Bull_Diesel wrote:
FT you know as well as I do that we got the same role pm, and that F-16 intentionally gave out all of the roles so that you couldn't do what you're doing now.

If we got the "same" role PM, and you're town, why are you voting for me?

was supposed to say we 'all'

and i'm voting you because you're smarter than that, and you're assuming that's a mistake i'd make.
blackhawk1331
Posts: 4,932
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8/26/2013 10:49:54 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:04:47 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
With 13 players and 4 mafia, we have about a 30% chance of randomly lynching mafia. To win the game, given 5 potential mislynches and the need to lynch 3 mafia, we can aim for less than 50% accuracy in our lynches and still win. I'd say that's not bad odds. With that said, I'd like to lynch between TA, Jon, Bull, and Khaos. This narrows the game down to 4 people, and since I know I'm town, I know the chances of randomly hitting scum here is 33%. I'd say that's great odds for a D1 lynch, plus we get rid of someone who is utterly stupid and delusional (those 4 players).

Thoughts?

Why do you say they're utterly stupid and delusional. I've only played one or two games with anyone on that list. Maybe three with diesel (not including this one).
Because you said it was a waste, numb nuts. - Drafter

So fvck you. :) - TV

Use prima facie correctly or not at all. - Noumena
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:50:28 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:27:31 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
3. Reasons to Vote for Bull:

1. He says his role is vanilla when actually we are vanilla townies.
2. He is not pro-actively looking for scum, and instead spends time answering questions for the mod, and speaking about himself. He is not analyzing the posts we have so far to create content.
3. He asks others to look for scum, instead of trying to figure out ways to catch them. This final point shows that he has no interest in personally looking for the scum, and therefore, is probably a sign that he already knows who they are.

4. He slipped by saying he received the same role as me, and then OMGUS voting for me. The first part of his action demonstrates inside knowledge that I'm town, the second part shows he's not looking for scum, just OMGUS'ing. The irony is that he votes for a guy he called town just a second ago.
blackhawk1331
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8/26/2013 10:54:33 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 8/26/2013 10:24:28 PM, Bull_Diesel wrote:
why do you think Khaos is scum?

Did I miss something already?

Are you talking to yraelz (sorry if I spelled it wrong) or FT?
Because you said it was a waste, numb nuts. - Drafter

So fvck you. :) - TV

Use prima facie correctly or not at all. - Noumena
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/26/2013 10:54:53 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
blackhawk goes in the pile of potential scum along with Bull-Diesel. His lack of a vote + totally irrelevant question + lack of comment on the many thoughts I've offered = passivity + inability to form opinions = more likely to come from scum than town.

I'm down to build a wagon on either one. What do you guys think? This feels like Logic's game again: Bull or Blackhawk...