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Mafia strategy - Policy OMGUS: Good or bad?

F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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8/28/2013 12:31:49 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
There have been threads before on whether OMGUS catches scum so I won't go into that. I want to talk about whether OMGUS as a town policy is a good one if you want to avoid being lynched.

First, let's consider the advantages: if you are known to OMGUS, scum will be afraid to FOS you without at least some town support. If you are a player that townreads people that FOS you or simply attempt to convince them that you are town, it is much more likely that you will be attacked by scum because they don't have to fear your retribution. If you are known to lash out - and lash out hard, scum will be a little more wary because they don't want to - to put it in mild terms - mess with you. Several good players (I'll say who later of the current players but some old players like Danielle and bluesteel are known for this) OMGUS on policy. I.e., if someone suspects them, that person is automatically considered scum and relentlessly attacked. This provides a measure of protection for that player since it makes it less likely that scum will attack them.

But is this really a good strategy? Consider why it happens. I can think of two reasons: a player does not want to be embarrassed by calling the leader of their lynch town while they are lynched and that person flips scum. However, if they call them scum, they can always tell town at the endgame that they were right all along and that town should have listened to them. The second reason is that

On the other hand, what happens when you don't OMGUS but put persuasion at the forefront. If like BlackVoid for instance, you try and persuade the pusher of your lynch that you are town. Scum won't be afraid of FOSsing such players but the lynch rate would remain low because as long as town are convinced that that player is town, there is nothing scum can do. So, aiming to convince town not to attack you should come before aiming to convince scum not to attack you. Players that constantly OMGUS suffer from this weakness because they are doing things the wrong way. Consider Lucky for instance: his usual strategy is to look at a wagon, figure out who is pushing for his lynch the hardest and suspect that person. It doesn't often work because then you get into a 1-1 with the person leading your lynch and you are still on the table as a potential lynch. On the other hand, if you persuaded the person leading the lynch that you are town, all the momentum from your lynch is gone and alternate targets will likely be produced.

The same applies even when scum. Poor scum will attack the person leading their lynch and try to persuade the other townies to vote for that person. Good scum will suck it up and try to persuade the person leading their lynch that they are town and knock the driving force out of their lynch such that they are no longer in danger of being lynched.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,757
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8/28/2013 1:24:02 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I think OMGUS is a sign of inexperience, more than anything else. Bull is probably the prime example. I don't think it's a good policy. It doesn't accomplish anything useful, and the likelihood that anyone who FOS'es you is scum is no better than the likelihood a random player is scum. I strongly disagree that scum will be afraid to FOS someone known to OMGUS. If I were scum, I would probably FOS people who OMGUS on purpose. It leads to an easy 1-on-1 situation, where any competent mafioso really thrives. I think it could also lead other townies to overlook legitimate reasons to suspect said scum, since they would assume the OMGUS-FOS was empty.

I think the example of Danielle and bluesteel are quite insightful. I don't think scum were afraid to FOS either of them out of fear they would be FOS'ed back. I think the reason they weren't FOS'ed often (I can't speak for Danielle, given lack of experience, but talking about bluesteel) was because he was obvious town. To put that in perspective, I don't think bluesteel actually OMGUS'ed anyone. It just happened to be the case that, if you thought he wasn't town, chances were pretty high you were mafia. It had to do with how big of a difference there was between his town meta and scum meta. When you're obviously town, and you get FOS'ed, it might be a good idea to scrutinize whoever is FOS'ing you very carefully.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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8/28/2013 2:01:04 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
I agree that inexperienced players OMGUS more and that it is generally a poor strategy. You say you FOS people who OMGUS on purpose and get into a 1-1. But that means your chances of getting lynched are about 50%. I wouldn't want to get into a 1-1 regardless of affiliation if I can help it.

I think Danielle is often FOSsed and lynched as town because she OMGUS's. My perspective is that she tries to scare the scum away from FOSing her and at the beginning of the game, it works because scum would be terrified to FOS her and would buddy her constantly. However, it all falls apart when town FOSses her. If multiple townies FOS her and she OMGUSes them all, then scum have an opening to jump on while she is busy with the town. That's where it ultimately breaks down. Scum are only afraid of retribution if they have to FOS alone. If they have town support, then they will happily bandwagon. So, the solution is to not incentivize the scum to avoid FOSing you but convincing the town that you are town.

For bluesteel, it works and he is rarely lynched because he can relate well to others and also the difference in town and scum meta.

Regarding what you mentioned about FOSsing a player known to OMGUS, I guess it depends on the player. Players with superior logic and a better understanding of the finer nuances of the game will always "win" the battle - always. So, if scum-drafter FOSses town-Royal, drafter will always win by pointing out the logical inconsistencies in Royal's argument. This won't be alignment indicative. Drafter will always be logically airtight and Royal will always have holes and inconsistencies in logic. So, a good scum strategy is to evaluate your logical ability and compare it with the ability of the person you want to FOS. If you have the clear upper hand, you can proceed. If you are less logical, then you will die.

If both players are equally logical, I think the townie would win just by sheer force of personality. The scum would be at a disadvantage because they have to constantly fake analysis to match the townie's genuine analysis.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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8/28/2013 2:03:26 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
A good example is Zaradi in Mestari's Slaves of Time when he made that case against bluesteel and argued against him and drafter for the entire DP until his argument was shredded apart and he was lynched.
bladerunner060
Posts: 7,126
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8/28/2013 2:09:20 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
You mafia vets and your slang words....

You realize I had to look up what it stood for because you didn't include it in the OP?
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Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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8/28/2013 5:11:33 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Is this about me?
I'm honored ;)

Perhaps I don't fully understand what OMGUS entails, but I think it is subjective. Perhaps it is inexperienced players who believe certain things are scummy behavior, while more experienced players do not.

Just because you vote for me, and either independently or as a result, I vote for you, labeling it as OMGUS mitigates any legitimate points made.
My work here is, finally, done.