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BEGINNERS 16.2 - Day Phase Two

drafterman
Posts: 18,870
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9/15/2013 8:18:30 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Lynched Last Phase:
No One

Died Last Night:
blade runner: ????

Matbag: You are the JANITOR. Once per game you may target another player. If that player dies during the same night you target them, their role and affiliation will be hidden, given only to the Mafia. You win with the Mafia.

Living Players:
1. Fisher28
2. Bullish
3. Shadowguynick
4. Sparkies
5. OhHello
6. Khaos_Mage

With 6 players, it takes 4 votes to lynch.
This Day Phase will end no lather than 8:00 AM on 9/18 DDO Time.
Shadowguynick
Posts: 516
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9/15/2013 9:20:28 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
This is either a vigilante kill, or an SK kill. And if previous beginner series are to go by there should only be the SK left. (If memory serves correct there was one mafia and one SK)
Shadowguynick
Posts: 516
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9/15/2013 9:44:32 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
VTL Bullish

Please explain your reasoning yesterday that matbag was suspicious. You failed to do so DP1 and I would like to hear from you.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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9/15/2013 4:34:06 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/15/2013 9:44:32 AM, Shadowguynick wrote:
VTL Bullish

Please explain your reasoning yesterday that matbag was suspicious. You failed to do so DP1 and I would like to hear from you.

Bad, Shadow, bad... ;)
Bullish is most likely the vig or the SK, since he soft claimed his suspicion of Mat AND said his role started with V.

I say we give him the benefit of the doubt, and if there is any cops or trackers, get on him!!
Bullish, DO NOT KILL ANYONE TONIGHT.

Are there any passive killing roles? If so, you should out them, so any active town roles, like watcher, doesn't get killed.
If there is a doc, don't protect anyone tonight and don't out yourself.

I know the last part seems scummy, but the idea is that ONLY one person is to die tonight. This will confirm there is no SK... unless the SK also targets the mafia's kill.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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9/15/2013 5:09:58 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Hey, look everyone, there is a janitored role!!!

This means two things:
1. There is likely two mafia, though it doesn't preclude a TP.
2. Mafia has a safe role claim.

VTL OhHello

There is no reason to believe any role claims made at this point, since all roles were randomized, so balance isn't an issue...

OhHello purposefully didn't out his role last DP because he knew he would have a safe fake claim this DP. Plus, he didn't want to fake claim anything because he was the first to claim fully.

Also, this would explain why he stagnated the DP with the prospect of his lynch, to ensure no one else outted their roles.
My work here is, finally, done.
Shadowguynick
Posts: 516
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9/15/2013 9:03:51 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/15/2013 5:09:58 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
Hey, look everyone, there is a janitored role!!!

This means two things:
1. There is likely two mafia, though it doesn't preclude a TP.
2. Mafia has a safe role claim.


What do you mean it doesn't preclude a TP? I thought that this game has a guaranteed
third party. You might be saying that, and the wording is confusing me, but can you clarify? Otherwise I agree with the idea. Also the idea behind OhHello to find a good claim for himself makes sense. OhHello barely staked off death last DP, and did so without claiming. It would make sense if he had to do this. Bullish can wait another DP (If we follow Khaos's plan) but I still want to hear from him. Bullish please start posting.

Unvote VTLOhHello

VTL OhHello

There is no reason to believe any role claims made at this point, since all roles were randomized, so balance isn't an issue...

OhHello purposefully didn't out his role last DP because he knew he would have a safe fake claim this DP. Plus, he didn't want to fake claim anything because he was the first to claim fully.

Also, this would explain why he stagnated the DP with the prospect of his lynch, to ensure no one else outted their roles.
Fisher28
Posts: 50
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9/15/2013 9:26:46 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
K, so I'm back. Anyway, how many third party roles r there supposed to be this round? 1 or 2?
Fisher28
Posts: 50
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9/15/2013 9:30:24 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Bullish, could you please verify exactly what your role is considering there could be an SK or Vig?

(sorry for the string of realy short posts my train of thought was interrupted)
Shadowguynick
Posts: 516
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9/15/2013 9:53:09 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/15/2013 9:26:46 PM, Fisher28 wrote:
K, so I'm back. Anyway, how many third party roles r there supposed to be this round? 1 or 2?

1, I am not sure if there are ever 2 third parties in games. But if there were two it would be extremely against our favor.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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9/16/2013 1:06:39 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/15/2013 9:53:09 PM, Shadowguynick wrote:
At 9/15/2013 9:26:46 PM, Fisher28 wrote:
K, so I'm back. Anyway, how many third party roles r there supposed to be this round? 1 or 2?

1, I am not sure if there are ever 2 third parties in games. But if there were two it would be extremely against our favor.

Why would two TPs be out of our favor?
Mafia win when they consist of 50% of total players, regardless of their affiliation.
TP win when their condition is met. An SK is more likely to help the town then mafia (ensuring they must be lynched, as opposed to NK), and a survivor can't kill anyone.

There can be more than one, but one (or none) is the norm.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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9/16/2013 1:24:21 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/15/2013 9:03:51 PM, Shadowguynick wrote:
At 9/15/2013 5:09:58 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
Hey, look everyone, there is a janitored role!!!

This means two things:
1. There is likely two mafia, though it doesn't preclude a TP.
2. Mafia has a safe role claim.


What do you mean it doesn't preclude a TP? I thought that this game has a guaranteed
third party. You might be saying that, and the wording is confusing me, but can you clarify? Otherwise I agree with the idea. Also the idea behind OhHello to find a good claim for himself makes sense. OhHello barely staked off death last DP, and did so without claiming. It would make sense if he had to do this. Bullish can wait another DP (If we follow Khaos's plan) but I still want to hear from him. Bullish please start posting.

Looking at Drafter's beginner series 15.3, 13.3, and 12.3 games, there was a TP in each. So, it looks like Bullish may be TP.

However, this is the first time Drafter has randomized the roles, which means he may have opted to have the chance of TP random.
Furthermore, the role itself would be random, so even if there is a TP, it may not be SK.

So, everyone stick to the plan...
1. Bullish, don't kill anyone tonight.
2. Tracker and/or cop on Bullish.
3. Out any passive killing roles, like bomb or PGO.
4. NO PROTECTION, to ensure that any death is verified.

If there are two deaths, we'll lynch Bullish tomorrow.
My work here is, finally, done.
OhHello
Posts: 114
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9/16/2013 1:45:45 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
Ok! So, first things first: Following up from DP1

At 9/13/2013 11:54:02 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
I don't recall being asked, or even voted, to out my role. I only remember someone asking me why I didn't do it, since I was asking others.

At 8/29/2013 5:55:19 PM, Fisher28 wrote:
Khaos_mage you proposed getting two roles out there just to get the game started. Since you put the idea forward, why not volunteer yourself?

And I voted you for not outing your role. I may have been mafia, but I still did it.

Also, VTL Bullish for not posting his reasoning. Also, since there is a vig/sk and I know that i'm not it, I think that it would be good to get some voting done.
OhHello
Posts: 114
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9/16/2013 1:47:59 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/16/2013 1:24:21 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
So, everyone stick to the plan...
1. Bullish, don't kill anyone tonight.
2. Tracker and/or cop on Bullish.
3. Out any passive killing roles, like bomb or PGO.
4. NO PROTECTION, to ensure that any death is verified.

If there is a Cop, how would they out Bullish without allowing the Mafia to know that they were cop? Should a cop out themselves if they find someone to be guilty, or should they keep themselves hidden and merely guide the voting towards the guilty person? The latter would seem insidious, which is not a particularly Cop thing to do.
OhHello
Posts: 114
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9/16/2013 1:56:31 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/15/2013 5:09:58 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
There is no reason to believe any role claims made at this point, since all roles were randomized, so balance isn't an issue...

OhHello purposefully didn't out his role last DP because he knew he would have a safe fake claim this DP. Plus, he didn't want to fake claim anything because he was the first to claim fully.

Also, this would explain why he stagnated the DP with the prospect of his lynch, to ensure no one else outted their roles.

Why would preventing people from outing their roles help the mafia? If I were mafia i'd want people to out their roles. And I don't see how it would be any easier to claim in this DP then in DP1. False-claiming at the start of a DP would be worse then false-claiming at the end, because there would be more time for people to come forward & counter-claim, and people could ask for the results of power roles or anything like that.
OhHello
Posts: 114
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9/16/2013 7:21:25 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/16/2013 6:56:04 AM, drafterman wrote:
Vote Count
OhHello - 2/4 - Khaos, Shadow

You forgot my vote for Bullish.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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9/16/2013 12:51:39 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/16/2013 7:01:05 AM, Sparkies wrote:
I strongly doubt that ohello is scum if he was scium last game

Why?
It is random assignments.

Tell me, if I flip a coin and it lands three times tails in a row, what are the chances it will land on tails on the next flip?
Hint: the answer is still 50%
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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9/16/2013 12:52:49 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/16/2013 1:45:45 AM, OhHello wrote:
Ok! So, first things first: Following up from DP1

At 9/13/2013 11:54:02 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
I don't recall being asked, or even voted, to out my role. I only remember someone asking me why I didn't do it, since I was asking others.

At 8/29/2013 5:55:19 PM, Fisher28 wrote:
Khaos_mage you proposed getting two roles out there just to get the game started. Since you put the idea forward, why not volunteer yourself?

And I voted you for not outing your role. I may have been mafia, but I still did it.

Also, VTL Bullish for not posting his reasoning. Also, since there is a vig/sk and I know that i'm not it, I think that it would be good to get some voting done.

What is your point?
I didn't suggest outing roles this game, because discussion had already begun by the time I had posted.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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9/16/2013 1:14:40 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/16/2013 1:47:59 AM, OhHello wrote:
At 9/16/2013 1:24:21 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
So, everyone stick to the plan...
1. Bullish, don't kill anyone tonight.
2. Tracker and/or cop on Bullish.
3. Out any passive killing roles, like bomb or PGO.
4. NO PROTECTION, to ensure that any death is verified.


If there is a Cop, how would they out Bullish without allowing the Mafia to know that they were cop? Should a cop out themselves if they find someone to be guilty, or should they keep themselves hidden and merely guide the voting towards the guilty person? The latter would seem insidious, which is not a particularly Cop thing to do.

Generally, cops out a guilty when they find one.
Generally, cops do not out results on innocents until later, in an effort to narrow scum by POE.

It is up to the player to protect a townie they investigated as innocent or not, as protecting a mislynch is not as beneficial as killing scum.

1:1 trades are not beneficial to mafia. Thus, yes, cops out scum when they find them.

However, in this particular game, our results are not necessarily to be trusted more than a normal game, since there are likely to be flavors.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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9/16/2013 1:33:15 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/16/2013 1:56:31 AM, OhHello wrote:
At 9/15/2013 5:09:58 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
There is no reason to believe any role claims made at this point, since all roles were randomized, so balance isn't an issue...

OhHello purposefully didn't out his role last DP because he knew he would have a safe fake claim this DP. Plus, he didn't want to fake claim anything because he was the first to claim fully.

Also, this would explain why he stagnated the DP with the prospect of his lynch, to ensure no one else outted their roles.

Why would preventing people from outing their roles help the mafia? If I were mafia i'd want people to out their roles. And I don't see how it would be any easier to claim in this DP then in DP1.

Because mafia now has a free fake claim.
If there are two mafia, whatever Blade's role was can now be safely claimed by the other mafia.

False-claiming at the start of a DP would be worse then false-claiming at the end, because there would be more time for people to come forward & counter-claim, and people could ask for the results of power roles or anything like that.

Exactly why town cred is given to people who out their roles early, because it is a risky gambit as scum.
But, in this particular game, since mafia has a safe claim, no credit is given.
My work here is, finally, done.
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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9/16/2013 2:29:06 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I'm sorry my bruddahs I didn't post any analysis last DP. I had dump tons of homework and I couldn't get this game high enough on my priorities list.

My role starts with a V. That's all I'm saying right now. Don't assume I have a kill, and don't assume my death will make the next night skip.
0x5f3759df
OhHello
Posts: 114
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9/16/2013 5:27:54 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/16/2013 12:51:39 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
Tell me, if I flip a coin and it lands three times tails in a row, what are the chances it will land on tails on the next flip?
Hint: the answer is still 50%

It can be worked out 2 ways. You are kinda correct, but it would be more correct to define it as 1/2x1/2 , or 1/4.

At 9/16/2013 12:52:49 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
What is your point?
I didn't suggest outing roles this game, because discussion had already begun by the time I had posted.

Discussion to get you lynched. My point is that your reasoning is incorrect & that you are incorrect. I can see that you're currently in multiple games but you should really still continue to verify your statements before you make them.

I didn't particularly want to do this, but you've got 3/4 votes against me. I'm a cop, last night i investigated Bullish & found him guilty. If you lynch me then you'll see i'm telling the truth & lynch Bullish; if they NK me or i'm killed by a serial killer then you'll see my role and know i'm telling the truth.
Sparkies
Posts: 652
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9/16/2013 5:32:20 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 9/16/2013 5:27:54 PM, OhHello wrote:
At 9/16/2013 12:51:39 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
Tell me, if I flip a coin and it lands three times tails in a row, what are the chances it will land on tails on the next flip?
Hint: the answer is still 50%

It can be worked out 2 ways. You are kinda correct, but it would be more correct to define it as 1/2x1/2 , or 1/4.

At 9/16/2013 12:52:49 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
What is your point?
I didn't suggest outing roles this game, because discussion had already begun by the time I had posted.

Discussion to get you lynched. My point is that your reasoning is incorrect & that you are incorrect. I can see that you're currently in multiple games but you should really still continue to verify your statements before you make them.

I didn't particularly want to do this, but you've got 3/4 votes against me. I'm a cop, last night i investigated Bullish & found him guilty. If you lynch me then you'll see i'm telling the truth & lynch Bullish; if they NK me or i'm killed by a serial killer then you'll see my role and know i'm telling the truth.

Guys My reads is that ohelllo is town and tat bull is scum, UNVOTE VTL bullish.
Fisher28
Posts: 50
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9/16/2013 8:31:30 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Guys, remember the mis-information piece? While I think Bullish is being shady, cause he wont just out his role, I think we should keep in mind the chance that even if ohhello is cop that he could be insane cop.
Fisher28
Posts: 50
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9/16/2013 8:33:34 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
Also, Bullish, why dance around what ur role is? Why not just out?
On a separate note, depending on how many TP there r there may not be an sk, unless I've got that confused.