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Beginner Mafia 18.2 -DP2

Khaos_Mage
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12/22/2013 3:57:39 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Died in the night:

Crypto:

You are the TRACKER. Each night, you may select one player to see who they visit that night. You win with the town.

Solon:
You are VANILLA. You have no role. You win with the town.

Previously dead:
PotBelliedGeek - Dreamer - DP1

Living Players:
1. Aloke
2. sketchn
3. bsh1
4. Yay842
5. Mikal
6. Zaradi
7. Hatstand

With 7 living players, it takes four votes to lynch.
This DP ends no later than 11 AM December 26th.
My work here is, finally, done.
Hatstand
Posts: 2,673
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12/22/2013 5:33:45 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
First off,

At 12/18/2013 9:54:49 PM, SolonKR wrote:

To answer Hats' question about my role being priest-confirmable- it is indeed.

What is with this game and townies lying about their roles? Seriously, Solon, if you hadn't died overnight then you would have been a free mislynch for the mafia today, seeing as TN would have confirmed that you lied.

Going into this DP:

There are three people who I am almost certain are not mafia:
Aloke
Bsh1
Sparkies

Aloke's request to be mimicked speaks legions in itself - for there are only a few mafia roles that could wiggle out of that situation - but what really struck me was the effort he put into determining Pots's affiliation in the last DP. While in some cases it is better to assume the possibility that a defender is scum trying to pick up credibility, Aloke's defence of Pots seemed to flow naturally from his inexperience with the ways of Mafia and his emphasis on behavioural reading.

Bsh1 has provided only original insight thus far, marking a stark difference to his past play as scum. This originality suggests that he is genuinely engaging with the scumhunt, and I believe wholeheartedly that he is not a member of the informed minority.

Sparkies's read is simple. He (soft) claimed a role that required him to be lynched in order to be used, and went so far as to suggest that we lynch him specifically to utilise it. That there is appalling strategy for scum.

That leaves us with only three possibilities for mafia:

TN05
Zaradi
Yay

At the time TN claimed he would have had no means of knowing how many visiting roles would have been claimed, and therefore whether he would be able to fake the role, even with a scum rolecop. Of course, there is always the possibility that he will claim roleblocking until such time as he or his scumbuddy has had the chance to Rolecop all visiting roles, but this seems unnecessarily convoluted.

I'll wait for TN's results to come in before making any decisions, but Yay and Zaradi are almost definitely the mafia team.

Zaradi's inattention must be read only as null, seeing as he asked to be replaced out. This read on him must be based solely on POE.

Mimic is something that could be faked as scum, if you were a rolecop. I believe that this may be our explanation. We have nothing to read him from except for this claim.

Then there's the problem of the SK. And it is a SK we're dealing with, because no Vig would kill a townie who was going to be confirmed (which both Crypto and Solon were supposed to be).

We can take Yay and Zaradi off this list, because they can't be both mafia and TP, and we can also remove Sparkies and TN for the same reason that we removed them from the mafia possibility pile.

That leaves us with Bsh1 and Aloke. I'm inclined to say that Bsh1 is our best candidate.

The reason many find it hard to scumhunt as mafia is that they are aware of who is scum and who isn't, and always have a purpose in the back of their minds to draw the lynch towards a townie and away from their buddies. TPs (except for cults) do not face this difficulty, as they do not know anyone else's affiliation. What they do have to worry about is surviving. This prompts a usual behaviour of trying to slide through DPs from TPs. Trying to be helpful while trying not to draw attention to oneself. This pattern of behaviour lines up with what we have seen from Bsh1. His usual presence is a lot more probing and everpresent. While his style here is far from his scum play, it is also a little reserved for him. This may be because his role has forced him to hide from the NK.

I will be eagerly awaiting the nights results, to see if they match with my conclusions.

If we lynch mafia today, then tomorrow we shall be at (2-1-1) (assuming two successful NKs on townies), (3-1) if either the mafia or the SK kill the other, or (4), if we get lucky and they kill each other off.

If we lynch the SK today, then tomorrow we shall be at (3-2) (assuming a successful NK)

If we lynch town today, the we shall be at (1-1-2) if the mafia and the SK both kill town, (2-2) if the mafia kill the SK, and the SK kills town, (2-1-1) if the SK kills the mafia and the mafia kills town, or (3-1) if the mafia and the SK kill each other.

If we reach (2-1-1), then things get tricky. If we lynch either the SK or the mafia, then whichever is left alive will kill a townie in the night, taking it to (1-1). Our only chance would be to lynch town, and then have the SK and the mafia kill each other in the night. The beauty of this situation is that whichever of them targeted town would be the one to lose, so they would both be trying to kill each other.

It is clear that mislynching today cannot be considered a viable option. We must treat today as LYLO.

Lynching mafia or the SK could both prove beneficial. If we lynch the SK then we return to a standard mafia LYLO. If we lynch the mafia then either we end up in the majority, or in the (2-1-1) scenario described above.

Once again, we must treat this DP as LYLO. This could decide the course of the game, so let's have no hasty lynches.
Hatstand
Posts: 2,673
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12/22/2013 5:54:13 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 4:37:58 AM, Sparkies wrote:
so 2 or 3 mafia? if 3 we are at lylo right now

.This is the TP game. If the TP had been a survivor then we would have gone to (8-4) in this DP. Together, the scum could have forced a NL and then had a joint win. I seriously doubt that there are three members of the mafia.

On the other hand, there are almost definitely 3 scum, because a scumteam of 1 is essentially a TP.
TN05
Posts: 4,492
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12/22/2013 5:56:59 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Khaos has not given me any roles so either nobody visited me or I am naive. I don't believe I've been roleblocked because I don't think passive roles like Priest can get roleblocked, but that's a possibility as well.
Hatstand
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12/22/2013 6:06:01 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 5:56:59 AM, TN05 wrote:
Khaos has not given me any roles so either nobody visited me or I am naive. I don't believe I've been roleblocked because I don't think passive roles like Priest can get roleblocked, but that's a possibility as well.

You can block passive roles, I believe, but you might have been notified.

Khaos, will you notify someone with a passive role if they have been roleblocked if they should have received results?


This does make things a little more complicated.
Hatstand
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12/22/2013 6:09:16 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 5:56:59 AM, TN05 wrote:
Khaos has not given me any roles so either nobody visited me or I am naive. I don't believe I've been roleblocked because I don't think passive roles like Priest can get roleblocked, but that's a possibility as well.

Even if no one else had, Crypto should have visited you. He was concerned with getting himself conformed, and I doubt that he would have come up with a plan on his own.
TN05
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12/22/2013 8:16:23 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 6:08:06 AM, Hatstand wrote:
TN, who do you believe is the mafia, and who do you believe is TP?

Well I'm not scum and I'm pretty sure you and Sparkies aren't due to claims... that just leaves Aloke, bsh1, Yay, Mikal, and Zaradi. Out of those I'd say bsh1 and Zaradi are likely scum, bu I haven't seen much from Yay or Mikal to judge. Bsh in particular could be SK - he is playing like town but SK will almost always buddy with town to get the mafia out.
Lucky_Luciano
Posts: 4,350
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12/22/2013 8:23:43 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 5:33:45 AM, Hatstand wrote:
What is with this game and townies not named Mestari lying about their roles?

FTFY.
"Age is not important" - Airmax 2014
"Australia... is that a place?" - Airmax 2014
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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12/22/2013 11:56:08 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Living Players:
1. Aloke
2. Sparkies (replacing sketchn)
3. bsh1
4. Yay842
5. TN05 (replacing Mikal)
6. Zaradi
7. Hatstand

Today's lesson:
Do not mod a game when you are tired.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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12/22/2013 12:14:28 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 6:06:01 AM, Hatstand wrote:

Khaos, will you notify someone with a passive role if they have been roleblocked if they should have received results?

Cutting to the quick:
Hypothetically, I would not tell a priest he was roleblocked.
My work here is, finally, done.
Hatstand
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12/22/2013 1:26:33 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 1:15:46 PM, Aloke wrote:
So were definitely lynching Zaradi since he cc'd a dead townie, right?

Wait, when did that happen?
Hatstand
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12/22/2013 1:27:46 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 1:26:33 PM, Hatstand wrote:
At 12/22/2013 1:15:46 PM, Aloke wrote:
So were definitely lynching Zaradi since he cc'd a dead townie, right?

Wait, when did that happen?

Found it.

Yup. Dead scum right there.
Aloke
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12/22/2013 1:28:24 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 1:26:33 PM, Hatstand wrote:
At 12/22/2013 1:15:46 PM, Aloke wrote:
So were definitely lynching Zaradi since he cc'd a dead townie, right?

Wait, when did that happen?

He claimed vanilla close to the end of the DP. Would Khaos include multiple vanilla's?
Iflyhigh
Hatstand
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12/22/2013 1:30:28 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 1:28:24 PM, Aloke wrote:
At 12/22/2013 1:26:33 PM, Hatstand wrote:
At 12/22/2013 1:15:46 PM, Aloke wrote:
So were definitely lynching Zaradi since he cc'd a dead townie, right?

Wait, when did that happen?

He claimed vanilla close to the end of the DP. Would Khaos include multiple vanilla's?

No. In a real game claiming vanilla doesn't count as a CC, but there will only be one of each role in this game due to the way the game is designed.
Aloke
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12/22/2013 2:01:45 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I want to see if Yay actually copied me instead of Sparkies, who soft claimed hunter. As mafia, he'd definitely have more incentive to choose the latter. I'd like him to post my role.
Iflyhigh
Hatstand
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12/22/2013 2:04:12 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:01:45 PM, Aloke wrote:
I want to see if Yay actually copied me instead of Sparkies, who soft claimed hunter. As mafia, he'd definitely have more incentive to choose the latter. I'd like him to post my role.

This could work, but I suspect that if Yay is mafia then there could be a rolecop on the scumteam.
Aloke
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12/22/2013 2:14:26 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:04:12 PM, Hatstand wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:01:45 PM, Aloke wrote:
I want to see if Yay actually copied me instead of Sparkies, who soft claimed hunter. As mafia, he'd definitely have more incentive to choose the latter. I'd like him to post my role.

This could work, but I suspect that if Yay is mafia then there could be a rolecop on the scumteam.

Well it'll at least be something to look at if we kill a mafioso and he doesn't flip role cop. Hopefully Zaradi is mafia.
Iflyhigh
Aloke
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12/22/2013 2:17:06 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:14:26 PM, Aloke wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:04:12 PM, Hatstand wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:01:45 PM, Aloke wrote:
I want to see if Yay actually copied me instead of Sparkies, who soft claimed hunter. As mafia, he'd definitely have more incentive to choose the latter. I'd like him to post my role.

This could work, but I suspect that if Yay is mafia then there could be a rolecop on the scumteam.

Well it'll at least be something to look at if we kill a mafioso and he doesn't flip role cop. Hopefully Zaradi is mafia.

Well actually if we assume TN05 is town, then we know that there's a roleblocker meaning it's impossible for there to be a mimic and rolecop.
Iflyhigh
Hatstand
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12/22/2013 2:21:34 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:17:06 PM, Aloke wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:14:26 PM, Aloke wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:04:12 PM, Hatstand wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:01:45 PM, Aloke wrote:
I want to see if Yay actually copied me instead of Sparkies, who soft claimed hunter. As mafia, he'd definitely have more incentive to choose the latter. I'd like him to post my role.

This could work, but I suspect that if Yay is mafia then there could be a rolecop on the scumteam.

Well it'll at least be something to look at if we kill a mafioso and he doesn't flip role cop. Hopefully Zaradi is mafia.

Well actually if we assume TN05 is town, then we know that there's a roleblocker meaning it's impossible for there to be a mimic and rolecop.

I don't think that there is a mimic and a rolecop. I think that there is a possibility that there is a rolecop instead of a mimic.

Also, we have to consider the possibility that TN is naive. Naive roles effectively do nothing (so he would receive no results).
Aloke
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12/22/2013 2:23:19 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:16:07 PM, Hatstand wrote:
Aloke, who (apart from Zaradi) do you think is scum and why?

Still thinking about it. If Zaradi is mafia, then I suspect that either Bsh1 or Yay is his scumbuddy. The behavioral analysis favors Bsh1, but I'm getting that same gut feeling about Yay I did last game.

Idk, I really don't. There's also the chance Zaradi is third party, especially since he claimed vanilla last DP. Vanilla claims make unattractive night kills. If that's the case, then I'll have to really relook things. My role will definitely be useful tonight.
Iflyhigh
Aloke
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12/22/2013 2:26:43 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:21:34 PM, Hatstand wrote:
Also, we have to consider the possibility that TN is naive. Naive roles effectively do nothing (so he would receive no results).

Is that even possible?

@Khaos, is it possible for there to be a naive priest?
Iflyhigh
Khaos_Mage
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12/22/2013 2:29:08 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:26:43 PM, Aloke wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:21:34 PM, Hatstand wrote:
Also, we have to consider the possibility that TN is naive. Naive roles effectively do nothing (so he would receive no results).

Is that even possible?

@Khaos, is it possible for there to be a naive priest?

It is possible.
My work here is, finally, done.
Hatstand
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12/22/2013 2:37:54 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:23:19 PM, Aloke wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:16:07 PM, Hatstand wrote:
Aloke, who (apart from Zaradi) do you think is scum and why?

Still thinking about it. If Zaradi is mafia, then I suspect that either Bsh1 or Yay is his scumbuddy. The behavioral analysis favors Bsh1, but I'm getting that same gut feeling about Yay I did last game.

Would you mind expanding on this point?

Idk, I really don't. There's also the chance Zaradi is third party, especially since he claimed vanilla last DP. Vanilla claims make unattractive night kills. If that's the case, then I'll have to really relook things. My role will definitely be useful tonight.
Aloke
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12/22/2013 2:45:11 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:37:54 PM, Hatstand wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:23:19 PM, Aloke wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:16:07 PM, Hatstand wrote:
Aloke, who (apart from Zaradi) do you think is scum and why?

Still thinking about it. If Zaradi is mafia, then I suspect that either Bsh1 or Yay is his scumbuddy. The behavioral analysis favors Bsh1, but I'm getting that same gut feeling about Yay I did last game.

Would you mind expanding on this point?

Just continuing where I left off last DP. Out of my town reads, Bsh1 and Yay are by far my weakest.
Iflyhigh
Hatstand
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12/22/2013 2:50:02 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/22/2013 2:45:11 PM, Aloke wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:37:54 PM, Hatstand wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:23:19 PM, Aloke wrote:
At 12/22/2013 2:16:07 PM, Hatstand wrote:
Aloke, who (apart from Zaradi) do you think is scum and why?

Still thinking about it. If Zaradi is mafia, then I suspect that either Bsh1 or Yay is his scumbuddy. The behavioral analysis favors Bsh1, but I'm getting that same gut feeling about Yay I did last game.

Would you mind expanding on this point?

Just continuing where I left off last DP. Out of my town reads, Bsh1 and Yay are by far my weakest.

So it's just a general read,and not something specifically related to Zaradi?