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TV Tropes Mafia DP5

trekie
Posts: 772
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4/20/2014 8:18:42 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Lynched Last Phase

No one.

Died Last Night

TN05(2) - You are 'Taking the Bullet'. You can't wait to leap into the path of a bullet in a heroic act of self-sacrifice. Thus you are the BODYGUARD. Each night you may select another player. All lethal actions targeting that player will be redirected to you, instead.
Affiliation/Win Condition: You win with the Town. The Town wins when it eliminates all opposing factions.

Previously Dead
Zaradi - Mafia JOAT
Noumena/Fazz - Town JOAT
Josh_b - Town Medium
Lucky_Luciano - TP Survivor (Turned into a posthumous Townie.)
TN05 - Town 2xMotivator
SolonKR - Vanilla Townie

Livivng Players
1. XLAV
2. Khaos_Mage
3. Skepsikyma
4. Yraelz
5. Yay
6. ford_prefect

With 6 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch or 3 votes to end the DP in a "No Lynch".

~ 64 hours remaining
Deadline:
4/22/2014 11:59 PM Central Time (DDO time)
4/23/2014 6:59 AM Central European Time
4/23/2014 12:59 PM Philippine Time
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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4/20/2014 8:25:51 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Well, I was right about the double kill being not true, and we are now at MYLO.
I still say it was a cop gambit with Yraelz.

I would almost rather deal with me vs. Yraelz today, since I know how the NPs will go. :(

VTL Yay
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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4/20/2014 8:31:20 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 8:25:46 AM, XLAV wrote:
Who the hell stopped the lynch?

Either it was a mafia governor trying to frame Yay,
Yay is unlynchable (presumably 1x), and mafia was using the cop gambit to bus scummate to get a fake guilty to get to LYLO
Same as above, except went for the fake guilty now.

I don't know, but I don't think a governor would be fair, but, I sure as hell wasn't expecting another unlynchable role, either. But, still, Yay's play was too scummy to ignore, so I do not believe he is town.

My biggest scum reads are Ford (option 3) or Yraelz (option 2), and obviously Yay.
My work here is, finally, done.
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,280
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4/20/2014 11:06:12 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Yeah, that seals it.

VTL Yay
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 1:45:53 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Haha hahahaha.

Don't vote to kill Yay until I can post later tonight. I have some things to say. Not like I could be killed anyways, this is great.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 2:29:42 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
DP4 Analysis:

During DP4 Yay842 initiated a cop gambit in order to win the game. Since there were 7 players living at the time this is how the game would have worked if Yay842 had successfully lynched me:

DP4: Lynch Yraelz (4 townies and 2 mafia remain).
NP4: Mafia kills a Townie (3 townies and 2 mafia remain).
DP5: I flip town. The town tries to lynch Yay, however, his 1x lynch proof prevents that. (3 townies and 2 mafia remain).
NP5: Mafia kills a Townie (2 townies and 2 mafia remain). Game over.

Thus DP4 was MYLO. Today is also MYLO but we'll lynch Yay so we don't have to worry about that. The fact that DP4 was MYLO gives the town a ton of information.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 2:38:16 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
DP4 Scum Analysis:

Yay's gambit and contrived role indicate that he is scum. That much is obvious. The question is then who his partner would be. Since killing me would have won the game yesterday we can examine the L-1 situation that occurred.

L-1 Situation:
As of post #77 in DP4 (http://www.debate.org...) there were three votes on me. The L-1 continued until XLAV's unvote in post #111 (http://www.debate.org...). The L-1 persisted for nearly 10 hours. The fact that I was not hammered by TN05, Skeps or Ford proves definitively that they are each town. It also proves that either XLAV or Khaos is the final mafioso.
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,137
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4/20/2014 2:54:06 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 2:38:16 PM, Yraelz wrote:
DP4 Scum Analysis:

Yay's gambit and contrived role indicate that he is scum. That much is obvious. The question is then who his partner would be. Since killing me would have won the game yesterday we can examine the L-1 situation that occurred.

L-1 Situation:
As of post #77 in DP4 (http://www.debate.org...) there were three votes on me. The L-1 continued until XLAV's unvote in post #111 (http://www.debate.org...). The L-1 persisted for nearly 10 hours. The fact that I was not hammered by TN05, Skeps or Ford proves definitively that they are each town. It also proves that either XLAV or Khaos is the final mafioso.

This^

VTL yay
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 3:18:14 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
XLAV vs. Khaos

The question between Khaos and XLAV is rather simply solved by a conglomerate of evidence.

1. Yay842 couldn't claim to be the cop until he knew he wouldn't be CC'd. At the start of DP4 two people had failed to claim: a. XLAV and b. Yraelz. However, I had already outed that my role was passive in nature. At the beginning of DP4 the only person who could have counterclaimed Yay's cop gambit was XLAV. In post #12 (http://www.debate.org...) XLAV's role was outed. One page later Yay claimed to be the cop. The timing of Yay's gambit strongly suggests that XLAV held a role unknown to the mafia. Thus XLAV is not in the mafia PM and is likely to be town town.

2. After Yay dies today the mafia cannot kill me. Doing so will result in my bomb triggering which will kill the final mafioso. This means that DP6 is going to come down to 3 townies (including me) and 1 mafioso. Since the final mafioso must be either XLAV or Khaos it's a sure bet that they will both be in DP6. In that world the final mafioso is going to have to control at least one of the other townies votes. It would be no coincidence then that Khaos' FOSes in DP5 specifically neglect to mention either Skeps or XLAV. In post #4 (http://www.debate.org...) Khaos FOS's Yay, Ford and I.

These FOSes make absolute sense coming from a mafia aligned Khaos. Why? Because during NP5 Khaos plans to kill Ford which will just leave the FOS on me. Doing this will set up a DP6 with Skeps and XLAV as the two other townies; the only two people who Khaos isn't FOSing. Since a mafia Khaos must absolutely dissuade one of those townies it's in his best interest not to FOS either of them; in fact, he would prefer to buddy them. The fact that the remaining mafioso MUST be between Khaos and XLAV, and yet Khaos does not FOS XLAV, is a concrete indication of Khaos' motivation.

3. Khaos role claim is not awesome. He claimed "My Name Is Inigo Montoya" as Innocent child. The trope can be found here: http://tvtropes.org.... The trope involves a character announcing his name before pounding an enemy. It does not involve a third party announcing a name nor does it involve an affiliation of the character being announced. The only part that fits with Innocent Child is the notion of something being announced.

XLAV's role claim is much better. He claimed "Scarily Competent" as a Tracker. The link to Scarily Competent (http://tvtropes.org...) literally is about a Tracker. XLAV, from a character + role standpoint is much more likely to be town.

4. Role analysis and balance also suggests that XLAV is town. The fact that Yay is a proven fraud means that XLAV's role would be the only multi-shot and targetable investigative role in the game. There is no reason that couldn't be true; in fact I would say it is pretty standard to have one of these roles in a mafia game (cop, tracker, watcher).

Khaos' role could also exist in the game. However, if Khaos is to be believed, the mafia tree stumped him. This part doesn't make as much sense because we know a few other things about the mafia:

a. They had a JOAT sporting a role block, a strongman, a ninja, and a role cop ability.
b. They have a 1x lynch proof ability.

The idea of mafia having a tree stump in addition to a role block ability seems pretty low in my mind. Additionally the overwhelming power of a 1x lynchproof combined with the versatility of Zaradi's role does not jive well with a tree stump. This is especially problematic if Khaos is to be believed. In a world where Khaos is believed the town have no multi-shot active investigative role because XLAV is a liar. However the mafia have 1x lynchproof, 1x tree stump, 1x role block, 1x ninja, 1x strongman, 1x role cop. The power differential is stupid.

Finally, the fact that Zaradi was sporting a ninja ability is a clear indication that there is a tracker in this game.

5. Khaos DP4 analysis on me was overly contrived and atypical of his townie play style. I already pointed out how he attempted to leverage my substitution timing against me. That's not atypical of Khaos, but failing to form that paranoia into a mod question is a clear indication of Khaos' motivation.

Moreover, XLAV was willing to back off my lynch during DP4 with prompting from me. This doesn't jive well with the mafia plan to end the game during DP4. Since the objective of the mafia strategy during DP4 was to slander me into the ground the mafia were attempting to present me as untrustworthy. XLAV probably isn't part of the mafia because he deferred to my analysis which demonstrates a thought processes out of sync with the mafia plan. Khaos, true to form, maintained my lynch the entire DP4. =)

Khaos is almost assuredly mafia.
XLAV is most likely town.
Everyone else is town.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 3:19:06 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:08:19 PM, XLAV wrote:
Oh sh*t I hammered.

Anyway, I think the scum is Ford.

It's not Ford. Ford would have hammered me during DP4 while I had 3 votes on me. Re-read the posts I made this DP.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 3:21:27 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:19:06 PM, Yraelz wrote:
At 4/20/2014 3:08:19 PM, XLAV wrote:
Oh sh*t I hammered.

Anyway, I think the scum is Ford.

It's not Ford. Ford would have hammered me during DP4 while I had 3 votes on me. Re-read the posts I made this DP.

In addition Zaradi had a 1x strong-man. That only makes sense if there's a bulletproof or doctor in the game. I.e. Ford's role.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 3:25:22 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 8:25:51 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:

Yo, you should just submit your night action now.

I just realized your in one hell of a catch 22. Either you're going to have to kill XLAV or XLAV is going to track you to the NK. =)
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 3:25:59 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:08:19 PM, XLAV wrote:
Oh sh*t I hammered.

Anyway, I think the scum is Ford.

Hey, track Khaos. It puts him in a bind.
XLAV
Posts: 13,705
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4/20/2014 3:27:47 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:19:06 PM, Yraelz wrote:
At 4/20/2014 3:08:19 PM, XLAV wrote:
Oh sh*t I hammered.

Anyway, I think the scum is Ford.

It's not Ford. Ford would have hammered me during DP4 while I had 3 votes on me. Re-read the posts I made this DP.

Alright, you pretty much convinced me.

Silly Khaos fake claiming innocent child DP4. Only I can get away with that, lol.
XLAV
Posts: 13,705
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4/20/2014 3:28:17 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:25:59 PM, Yraelz wrote:
At 4/20/2014 3:08:19 PM, XLAV wrote:
Oh sh*t I hammered.

Anyway, I think the scum is Ford.

Hey, track Khaos. It puts him in a bind.

I was going to announce that.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 3:29:14 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:27:47 PM, XLAV wrote:
Alright, you pretty much convinced me.

Silly Khaos fake claiming innocent child DP4. Only I can get away with that, lol.

Actually you can track whoever you want. It literally doesn't make a difference. If you track Ford it'll just serve as an additional safety.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 3:30:12 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:28:17 PM, XLAV wrote:
I was going to announce that.

Your tracking is invaluable no matter what. As long as their is a NK, if you track someone nowhere, they can't be mafia. So whether or not you track the mafioso we get a ton of useful info.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 3:33:19 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:28:17 PM, XLAV wrote:
I was going to announce that.

That said, your role and Ford's roles make sense with Zaradi's abilities. Skeps role doesn't jive with any ability but he did kill Zaradi during DP1. That couldn't have been a mafia gambit because Zaradi would have been the most experienced player on that scum team and would not have acquiesced to them bussing him DP1. If that had been the mafia plan Zaradi would have demanded that either Khaos or Yay (probably Yay) be the bus target.

And, like I said, either of them would have hammered me if they were mafia.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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4/20/2014 6:48:50 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:27:47 PM, XLAV wrote:
At 4/20/2014 3:19:06 PM, Yraelz wrote:
At 4/20/2014 3:08:19 PM, XLAV wrote:
Oh sh*t I hammered.

Anyway, I think the scum is Ford.

It's not Ford. Ford would have hammered me during DP4 while I had 3 votes on me. Re-read the posts I made this DP.

Alright, you pretty much convinced me.

Silly Khaos fake claiming innocent child DP4. Only I can get away with that, lol.

Good thing I didn't fake claim it ;)
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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4/20/2014 6:52:46 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 2:38:16 PM, Yraelz wrote:
DP4 Scum Analysis:

Yay's gambit and contrived role indicate that he is scum. That much is obvious. The question is then who his partner would be. Since killing me would have won the game yesterday we can examine the L-1 situation that occurred.

L-1 Situation:
As of post #77 in DP4 (http://www.debate.org...) there were three votes on me. The L-1 continued until XLAV's unvote in post #111 (http://www.debate.org...). The L-1 persisted for nearly 10 hours. The fact that I was not hammered by TN05, Skeps or Ford proves definitively that they are each town. It also proves that either XLAV or Khaos is the final mafioso.

Thank you for this straw man argument.
I think everyone knew that it was either me or you.
And, of course, you couldn't be the mafia in your analysis.

I'm going to have to check to see if Ford posted in the game when he could have hammered you, but going into this DP, I was 90% sure it was you over him.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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4/20/2014 6:54:18 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:18:14 PM, Yraelz wrote:
XLAV vs. Khaos

Talk about fluff!!!
Is there any reason to doubt XLAV was town via role analysis?
I'm also pretty sure I said he was town yesterday when he claimed.

This entire post was meaningless.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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4/20/2014 7:01:49 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 3:25:22 PM, Yraelz wrote:
At 4/20/2014 8:25:51 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:

Yo, you should just submit your night action now.

I just realized your in one hell of a catch 22. Either you're going to have to kill XLAV or XLAV is going to track you to the NK. =)

That's not a catch-22 :/
And this is another misleading post.
Preemptively saying that XLAV is going to track me to the NK is misleading, since, assuming he does track me, he will see that I DON"T visit anyone, thus I couldn't be mafia, ergo, you have to kill him.

XLAV is dead no matter what.
Skeps is next no matter what.
TN05 was dead no matter what (assuming he protected XLAV last night). last night.

Mafia would have taken this action no matter what, since killing Ford is impossible, killing you (if you were town) would be suicide, and killing me (if town) is the best mislynch given my scummy situation.
My work here is, finally, done.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 8:50:50 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 6:52:46 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
Thank you for this straw man argument.
I think everyone knew that it was either me or you.
And, of course, you couldn't be the mafia in your analysis.

Please, the mafia tried to cop gambit mislynch me for the win. How dumb do you think the other players in this game are? You're suggesting that the mafia, instead of using a cop gambit to win the game used a cop gambit to bus their own scum buddy. Let's imagine this cool conversation:

Yay, "dude if we use me to direct a mislynch today then we win the game! Because they can't kill me the next DP."

Yraelz, "awesome idea, but wait a second! What if we used you to bus me and not guaranteed win! Hah, you'll have to make it through two more day phases as the fake cop! And the best part? This dumb as fkkkkk plan has the same amount of risk as your guaranteed to win plan. Wooo-hoooo!"
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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4/20/2014 9:00:30 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 4/20/2014 7:01:49 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
That's not a catch-22 :/

I'm afraid it is a catch 22. XLAV is the only other mafia possibility. This XLAV is the only mislynch you can pull to win this game. Hilariously, you have to kill XLAV to prevent him from tracking you. Catch 22.

killing me (if town) is the best mislynch given my scummy situation.

I like how you never refer to yourself as scummy in this game. I like how you take my five points against you and say the whole post was meaningless. But I especially like how you then refer to your situation as scummy.

If I was a townie, and if I was in your situation, I would think of myself as the WORST mislynch. Feeling guilty Khaos?