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Chaos Theory Mafia - DP3

Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/4/2014 9:35:18 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
"Just like in the eye of the storm there is always comfort within the chaos. Becoming aware of this however, is your responsibility.""
-"Gary Hopkins

Died in the night:
Niqash-

"In the space between chaos and shape there was another chance.""
R13;"Jeanette Winterson,"The World and Other Places: Stories

Your role is CHAOS. You win with entropy.

Lynched DP2:
Lucky-

"Invention, it must be humbly admitted, does not consist in creating out of void but out of chaos.""
R13;"Mary Shelley

Your role is CHAOS. You win with entropy.

Previously dead:
Lannan - NP1 - CHAOS - Mayhem
XLAV - DP1 - CHAOS - Mayhem

Living Players:
1. Yraelz/FT
2. TN05
3. Bullish
4. Ford
5. bsh1
6. EndarkenedRationalist (replacing yay)
7. josh-B
8. Zaradi
9. SeventhProfessor (replacing Mikal)
10. withers

WIth 10 players alive, it takes six to lynch.
The DP ends in 60 hours. (2130 DDO time, 5/6/14)
My work here is, finally, done.
SeventhProfessor
Posts: 5,079
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5/4/2014 11:23:21 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Apparently I do have an active role, he just forgot to say Confirmed NP1. I did bsh again. Anyway, let's get this done. VTL bsh
#UnbanTheMadman

#StandWithBossy

#BetOnThett

"bossy r u like 85 years old and have lost ur mind"
~mysteriouscrystals

"I've honestly never seen seventh post anything that wasn't completely idiotic in a trying-to-be-funny way."
~F-16

https://docs.google.com...
srehtiw
Posts: 491
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5/4/2014 11:39:33 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Hello I'm back. I've been busy revising for exams recently so I've been inactive. I'm just catching up at the moment but to save me a bit of time why are we lynching bsh?
SeventhProfessor
Posts: 5,079
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5/4/2014 12:30:24 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 11:23:21 AM, SeventhProfessor wrote:
Apparently I do have an active role, he just forgot to say Confirmed NP1. I did bsh again. Anyway, let's get this done. VTL bsh

Actually, Khaos messaged me and told me that he said confirmed to everyone no matte what, and this doesn't necessarily confirm I have an active role.
#UnbanTheMadman

#StandWithBossy

#BetOnThett

"bossy r u like 85 years old and have lost ur mind"
~mysteriouscrystals

"I've honestly never seen seventh post anything that wasn't completely idiotic in a trying-to-be-funny way."
~F-16

https://docs.google.com...
Zaradi
Posts: 14,124
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5/4/2014 12:57:34 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Hmm...

So I targeted myself last night and I didn't get any kind of result back. I know this is wonky because I got a result last night from targeting Mikal/Seventh, so I assume this means my role was xshot, probably one-shot.

This makes me buy the sensor theory Lucky had last DP, because now that I actually remember the role, the only times I've seen it have been when it was one shot...

@FT/Yraelz, what are the odds that Bsh is town? Who would you buy as scum if bsh wasn't scum?
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ford_prefect
Posts: 4,137
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5/4/2014 12:59:28 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 12:57:34 PM, Zaradi wrote:
Hmm...

So I targeted myself last night and I didn't get any kind of result back. I know this is wonky because I got a result last night from targeting Mikal/Seventh, so I assume this means my role was xshot, probably one-shot.

This makes me buy the sensor theory Lucky had last DP, because now that I actually remember the role, the only times I've seen it have been when it was one shot...

@FT/Yraelz, what are the odds that Bsh is town? Who would you buy as scum if bsh wasn't scum?

OP said there are no xshots.
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,137
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5/4/2014 1:01:32 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
NP1 I targeted Lucky and received "Josh" as a result.
NP2 I targeted myself and received "bsh1" as a result.

For what it's worth, I think i'm the dreamer and i think I am receiving names of innocent people. I don't think we should lynch bsh. He did royally eff up, but I believe he is town.

Any other theories as to what my role could be, if not dreamer?
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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5/4/2014 1:09:30 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 12:57:34 PM, Zaradi wrote:
@FT/Yraelz, what are the odds that Bsh is town? Who would you buy as scum if bsh wasn't scum?

I have no idea. Maybe withers? I need to go back and look at the DP2 votes. Gimme a bit.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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5/4/2014 1:11:05 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 1:01:32 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
NP1 I targeted Lucky and received "Josh" as a result.
NP2 I targeted myself and received "bsh1" as a result.

Ah, I wish you had waited to out that result.
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,137
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5/4/2014 1:29:08 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 1:11:05 PM, Yraelz wrote:
At 5/4/2014 1:01:32 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
NP1 I targeted Lucky and received "Josh" as a result.
NP2 I targeted myself and received "bsh1" as a result.

Ah, I wish you had waited to out that result.

sorry, it just felt like we were on track to mislynch bsh1 fairly quickly and I didn't want that to happen
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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5/4/2014 1:45:37 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 1:29:08 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
sorry, it just felt like we were on track to mislynch bsh1 fairly quickly and I didn't want that to happen

Wanted to hear what BSH1 said first.
Zaradi
Posts: 14,124
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5/4/2014 1:52:01 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I'm operating under the assumption that I am a sensor and I learn the number of townies on a lynch. The DP1 lynch where I got my result from had eight people on it.

Bsh
Yraelz
Niquash - Town
TN05
Lannan - Scum
Zaradi - Town
Yay
Josh

I received the number 7, so that means 7 townies were in the 8 man wagon. If I'm right, then that means Lannan was the one scum, and everyone else on that wagon is town.

For me I find this hard to believe, because bsh and josh were the top two on my scum list. But if it is true, then it means that the people not on the wagon should be who we're looking at.

XLAV - Scum
Mestari - Town
Bullish
Ford
Seventh
Withers

Which means if we're still operating under the assumption of four scum team, then we have a 50% shot of hitting right between bullish, ford, seventh and withers. I'd be most down for lynching someone like Ford or withers, but I want imput from others, namely Yraelz and FT before I do anything.
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Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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5/4/2014 3:15:01 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 1:52:01 PM, Zaradi wrote:
I'm operating under the assumption that I am a sensor and I learn the number of townies on a lynch. The DP1 lynch where I got my result from had eight people on it.

Whelp. Your and Ford's results independently suggest that BSH1 is innocent. I'm a little concerned though that you AND Ford both have very powerful affiliation style roles. And then there is BSH1 with what appears to be a watcher/dreamer. Though, XLAV and Lannan both died, maybe the mafia had powerful roles as well. It's hard to make balance analysis without knowing what they had.

Let's go in on withers. VTL Withers. I don't have good analysis for why. He posted once last DP and once this DP.
Zaradi
Posts: 14,124
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5/4/2014 3:18:41 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 3:15:01 PM, Yraelz wrote:

I mean, do you have any other idea about what I could be? :/ I mean....I'm open to suggestions about what else I can be.
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Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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5/4/2014 3:19:57 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 3:18:41 PM, Zaradi wrote:
At 5/4/2014 3:15:01 PM, Yraelz wrote:

I mean, do you have any other idea about what I could be? :/ I mean....I'm open to suggestions about what else I can be.

I read this before making my response: http://wiki.epicmafia.com...

I have no clue. I've seen the role you've suggested in game. I can't think of something else that would return a number.
Yraelz
Posts: 4,056
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5/4/2014 3:23:52 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Zaradi, if your role is legit I think we will win this game by default. Here's what I see:

10 players left, either 2 mafia and 8 townie or 1 mafia and 9 townie.

Here is the worst case scenario:

1. There are 2 mafia left in the group of 4.
2. We mislynch today and they NK, leaving: 2 mafia + 6 townie.
3. There are 2 mafia left in the group of 3.
4. We mislynch tomorrow and they NK, leaving: 2 mafia + 4 townie.
5. There are 2 mafia left in the group of 2.
6. We correct lynch on DP5 and they NK, leaving: 1 mafia + 3 townie.
7. There is 1 mafia left in the group of 1.
8. We correct lynch on DP6 for the win.
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,137
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5/4/2014 3:48:36 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
VTL Zaradi

You ignored me when I said there are no xshot roles. That combined with your ability seeming really OP makes you look scummy. I admit it's possible that you got rb'd though
Zaradi
Posts: 14,124
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5/4/2014 4:04:16 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Whelp, ford just confessed to being scum lel.

Let's confirm my results from DP1's lynch and then we can lynch ford.

VTL Withers
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ford_prefect
Posts: 4,137
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5/4/2014 5:39:51 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 4:04:16 PM, Zaradi wrote:
Whelp, ford just confessed to being scum lel.

Let's confirm my results from DP1's lynch and then we can lynch ford.

VTL Withers

Are you kidding me? How did I confess to being scum? I don't have a problem with lynching withers due to inactivity, but why do you keep ignoring the fact that THERE ARE NO XSHOT ROLES in this game?
Zaradi
Posts: 14,124
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5/4/2014 5:47:41 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 5:39:51 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
At 5/4/2014 4:04:16 PM, Zaradi wrote:
Whelp, ford just confessed to being scum lel.

Let's confirm my results from DP1's lynch and then we can lynch ford.

VTL Withers

Are you kidding me? How did I confess to being scum? I don't have a problem with lynching withers due to inactivity, but why do you keep ignoring the fact that THERE ARE NO XSHOT ROLES in this game?

1. Simple solution: I'm not xshot. What's your problem now?
2. Why isn't your vote on him then?
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Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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5/4/2014 6:13:05 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 5:08:38 PM, Josh_b wrote:
At 5/4/2014 9:47:39 AM, Bullish wrote:
VTL bsh1.

Bullish, who did you target last night?

Bsh1. Not really surprised he isn't dead though. They probably used a roleblocker on me.
0x5f3759df
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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5/4/2014 6:18:59 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 5:08:38 PM, Josh_b wrote:
At 5/4/2014 9:47:39 AM, Bullish wrote:
VTL bsh1.

Bullish, who did you target last night?

What about you?

@Zaradi: what number this time?
0x5f3759df
Zaradi
Posts: 14,124
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5/4/2014 6:21:44 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 6:18:59 PM, Bullish wrote:
At 5/4/2014 5:08:38 PM, Josh_b wrote:
At 5/4/2014 9:47:39 AM, Bullish wrote:
VTL bsh1.

Bullish, who did you target last night?

What about you?

@Zaradi: what number this time?

Didn't get a number.
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Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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5/4/2014 6:21:46 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 5/4/2014 12:57:34 PM, Zaradi wrote:
Hmm...

So I targeted myself last night and I didn't get any kind of result back. I know this is wonky because I got a result last night from targeting Mikal/Seventh, so I assume this means my role was xshot, probably one-shot.

Nvm.
0x5f3759df