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Nympho's Brief Guide to Playing Mafia

Nymphomaniac
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11/10/2014 1:07:17 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
The purpose of this guide is to improve the quality of play on DDO. This part of the guide will talk about improving your town game.

Introduction

There are objective differences between town and mafia. At bottom, the key to improvement is learning to use (or manipulate) these objective differences.

How are town and mafia different? The mafia are informed; town aren't. The mafia don't need to lynch anyone (they just have to stay alive); town have to lynch mafia to win.

To win as town, you have to find the scum and get the scum lynched. To win as mafia, you have to stay alive in both the DP and NP.

Your vote is a tool, use it.

Towns need information. Votes create the best information. Voting tells every person in the town who your top suspect is, which prevents misunderstandings and allows the town to know where its members stand. The information produced by voting creates a basis for analysis and allows useful patterns/trends for analysis to emerge.

1. Voting increases pressure on your target. The more you pressure someone, the more you learn about them. That's always a good thing, as it helps you evaluate their behaviors. There are people who think voting someone for pressure doesn't work because people know the vote is just for pressure. But the reality is different. If you vote someone to pressure them to post more, or to answer a question, or to get a reaction, and they ignore you, then your "pressure" vote quickly turns into a "lynch" vote. if someone votes you for pressure, it doesn't mean they won't lynch you; it just means there's something you can do to get them to unvote you and you should probably consider doing it.

2. Voting gives the town something to talk about. The "why is your vote on X" inquiry is more informative than the "why do you suspect X" inquiry. The former is more direct, less prone to misunderstanding, and thus leads to more information.

There are only two cases when you shouldn't be voting.The first is LYLO. The second is when your top suspect is already at L-1 and you're waiting for a claim. In all other cases, you should have a vote on someone. Voting is the town's strongest weapon. Please use it.

How to find the scum?

There are three types of evidence you can use to find mafia: (1) behaviors, (2) NP results, and (3) setup/theme. The first kind of evidence -- behaviors -- is the most reliable, because it's based on objective facts (what people have said/done throughout the game). The second kind -- results -- are less reliable because of cop flavors, misdirection roles, and godfather/ninja roles. The third kind -- setup/theme -- is the least reliable because it's just mod psychology. Outguessing the mod is unreliable, especially since most mods try to change up their games to avoid mod psychology. Setup/theme has a place but it should only be used if necessary. When deciding whether to lynch someone, always prefer behavioral evidence to results, and results to setup/theme analysis.

1. There are no hard-and-fast behavioral tells. The trick to using behavioral evidence is tying specific behaviors to the objective differences between mafia and town. You gotta look at the facts -- the relevant behavior (their posts), the player performing the behavior (meta), the context in which the behavior happened (other player's posts), and the player's explanation/justification for the behavior (their responses to your pressure and inquiries). You use these facts to try figuring out the player's intent. Was the player trying to figure out who the scum were or was the player trying to lynch town? Was the player's analysis/emotion fake or was it natural? Was an emotional outburst natural or excessive (i.e. faked/forced). How does the player's certainty square with the game state? Was there a reason for a change in opinion or was the change opportunistic? Why did the player misrepresent someone? Could it have been a cognitive error? Why did the player contradict herself? Is the contradiction just a change in opinion? Was it a cognitive error? Or is it opportunistic? Was there no plausible town motivation? Was there a plausible scum motivation?

These are the sorts of questions that you have to ask. The questions are always about tying specific behaviors to objective differences between mafia and town. It's tough because no behavior alone is gonna be conclusive; it's just persuasive, so it just adds to the probability that someone is scum or town. Also you gotta be sensitive to the specific facts in each case, the circumstances, the player, etc. Experience is the best teacher for this, but you gotta try it out to learn and get better at it.

2. When to use results? If the results line up with behavioral evidence, use them. If the results and behavioral evidence don't conflict (for example, if the behavioral evidence is null), use them. But don't use results when the behavioral evidence conflicts with the results. That's when you should be concerned about the possibility of flavors, misdirection roles, or godfather/ninja roles. So you take the results as relevant to alignment but not conclusive evidence.

3. Like results, setup/theme evidence is relevant but it's never conclusive of alignment. If you're at a point where behavioral evidence isn't helpful (for instance, if both players are strong town or strong scum) and there aren't any results, then setup/theme could be used to decide the lynch. This is only as a last resort, when behavioral evidence has failed. Otherwise, prefer the greater reliability of behavioral evidence and results.

How to get the scum lynched?

Concision and organization are key. Try to explain why X is scum in a single post with 2-3 reasons. Using numbers ("1," "2," "3") helps organize the information. Keep it short, a couple lines per reason. Also, cite specific posts from X that show why X is scum. You gotta show people the facts, and then help them understand why those facts mean X is scum.

Always keep the big picture in mind. You need to convince the town, not your lynch target. So don"t get into a debate with your lynch target. You're not gonna convince them they're scum, and arguing with them just clutters the thread, which causes other players to ignore you. The only reason to argue with someone you think is scum is for clarification about something they said earlier.

How to avoid getting lynched?

When you defend yourself, concision is key. Explain why your behavior wasn't scummy with one post. Then get back to figuring out who the scum are. The best way to avoid getting lynched is to point out why someone else should be lynched instead.

Other important considerations.

1. You never VTNL on D1 because you can't predict ahead-of-time whether the game will reach LYLO or MYLO. Even if you have an even number of players, the game might not reach MYLO because of killing roles and protective roles. There might be a serial killer or vigilante, a bulletproof or a doctor. Those roles can affect how many kills happen each night, which will change whether the town gets to LYLO or MYLO. If you VTNL on D1, the game might reach MYLO, at which point the town will have to VTNL again. When you VTNL twice, you've just wasted a lynch. The town has less mislynches, which means the town has less chance of winning.

2. You should never get claims until players are at L-1. I've noticed this problem where 10 pages are spent trying to get someone's claim when the person isn't even close to L-1. Instead of cluttering the game and drowning out activity with 10 pages about getting someone's claim, keep your attention focused on figuring out who the scum are through behavioral evidence, and convincing the town to vote the scum. You'll get the claim when the lynch target is at L-1. This avoids outing characters/roles unless it's necessary to prevent a lynch on town.
Fill all my holes, please.

http://www.debate.org...

: At 11/17/2014 9:30:55 AM, Wylted wrote:
: I killed Nymph because her reads were incredibly good. I thought it was a result of inside knowledge.
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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11/10/2014 1:13:26 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I might just incorporate this into the beginners' mafia set-up...
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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XLAV
Posts: 13,710
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11/10/2014 2:00:17 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 1:18:08 AM, UchihaMadara wrote:
Dude, you joined a week ago.... how do you already know so much about mafia? 0_0

Guy is probably from mafiascum. Or he's FT.
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,071
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11/10/2014 7:07:31 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
This guy learns extremely quickly. That or he/she used to have another account.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
bsh1
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11/10/2014 2:51:03 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 7:07:31 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
This guy learns extremely quickly. That or he/she used to have another account.

There are other websites, like EpicMafia and MafiaScum that are exclusively mafia-playing sites. He could have come from one of those.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Vox_Veritas
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11/10/2014 2:52:03 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 2:51:03 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 7:07:31 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
This guy learns extremely quickly. That or he/she used to have another account.

There are other websites, like EpicMafia and MafiaScum that are exclusively mafia-playing sites. He could have come from one of those.

Wait... online mafia isn't something that DDO came up with?
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
bsh1
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11/10/2014 2:53:19 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 2:52:03 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 11/10/2014 2:51:03 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 7:07:31 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
This guy learns extremely quickly. That or he/she used to have another account.

There are other websites, like EpicMafia and MafiaScum that are exclusively mafia-playing sites. He could have come from one of those.

Wait... online mafia isn't something that DDO came up with?

Nope. It's existed for long before DDO has...it's been on DDO for around 4 years.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
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Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,102
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11/10/2014 2:57:54 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 2:52:03 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 11/10/2014 2:51:03 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 7:07:31 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
This guy learns extremely quickly. That or he/she used to have another account.

There are other websites, like EpicMafia and MafiaScum that are exclusively mafia-playing sites. He could have come from one of those.

Wait... online mafia isn't something that DDO came up with?

Mafia is a 28 year old game. DDO is only 7 years old. Of course DDO didn't come up with the idea of playing it online.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
ESocialBookworm
Posts: 14,361
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11/10/2014 4:21:18 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 1:13:26 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might just incorporate this into the beginners' mafia set-up...

Bish please.
Solonkr~
I don't care about whether an ideology is "necessary" or not,
I care about how to solve problems,
which is what everyone else should also care about.

Ken~
In essence, the world is fucked up and you can either ignore it, become cynical or bitter about it.

Me~
"BAILEY + SOLON = SAILEY
MY SHIP SAILEY MUST SAIL"

SCREW THAT SHIZ #BANNIE = BAILEY & ANNIE

P.S. Shipped Sailey before it was cannon bitches.
bsh1
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11/10/2014 4:59:19 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 4:21:18 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 1:13:26 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might just incorporate this into the beginners' mafia set-up...

Bish please.

Bish, back on up out of my space.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
ESocialBookworm
Posts: 14,361
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11/10/2014 5:01:52 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 4:59:19 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 4:21:18 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 1:13:26 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might just incorporate this into the beginners' mafia set-up...

Bish please.

Bish, back on up out of my space.

Bish, diz be my forum. Gtfo.
Solonkr~
I don't care about whether an ideology is "necessary" or not,
I care about how to solve problems,
which is what everyone else should also care about.

Ken~
In essence, the world is fucked up and you can either ignore it, become cynical or bitter about it.

Me~
"BAILEY + SOLON = SAILEY
MY SHIP SAILEY MUST SAIL"

SCREW THAT SHIZ #BANNIE = BAILEY & ANNIE

P.S. Shipped Sailey before it was cannon bitches.
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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11/10/2014 5:03:46 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 5:01:52 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 4:59:19 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 4:21:18 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 1:13:26 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might just incorporate this into the beginners' mafia set-up...

Bish please.

Bish, back on up out of my space.

Bish, diz be my forum. Gtfo.

Bish, I be da elite. Itz all ma forumz.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
ESocialBookworm
Posts: 14,361
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11/10/2014 6:06:40 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 5:03:46 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 5:01:52 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 4:59:19 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 4:21:18 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 1:13:26 AM, bsh1 wrote:
I might just incorporate this into the beginners' mafia set-up...

Bish please.

Bish, back on up out of my space.

Bish, diz be my forum. Gtfo.

Bish, I be da elite. Itz all ma forumz.

Bish, why you be lyin fuh? Wah gud dah gonna do yuh? *pats head*
We all know YYW is dah Elitest elite out der' man.
Solonkr~
I don't care about whether an ideology is "necessary" or not,
I care about how to solve problems,
which is what everyone else should also care about.

Ken~
In essence, the world is fucked up and you can either ignore it, become cynical or bitter about it.

Me~
"BAILEY + SOLON = SAILEY
MY SHIP SAILEY MUST SAIL"

SCREW THAT SHIZ #BANNIE = BAILEY & ANNIE

P.S. Shipped Sailey before it was cannon bitches.
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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11/10/2014 6:18:27 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 6:06:40 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 5:03:46 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 5:01:52 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
Bish, diz be my forum. Gtfo.

Bish, I be da elite. Itz all ma forumz.

Bish, why you be lyin fuh? Wah gud dah gonna do yuh? *pats head*

Marry meh to YYW?

We all know YYW is dah Elitest elite out der' man.

That's fo' shuh
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
ESocialBookworm
Posts: 14,361
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11/10/2014 6:19:34 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 6:18:27 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 6:06:40 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 5:03:46 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 5:01:52 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
Bish, diz be my forum. Gtfo.

Bish, I be da elite. Itz all ma forumz.

Bish, why you be lyin fuh? Wah gud dah gonna do yuh? *pats head*

Marry meh to YYW?

We all know YYW is dah Elitest elite out der' man.

That's fo' shuh

lol you are too cute
c'mere: https://plus.google.com...
Solonkr~
I don't care about whether an ideology is "necessary" or not,
I care about how to solve problems,
which is what everyone else should also care about.

Ken~
In essence, the world is fucked up and you can either ignore it, become cynical or bitter about it.

Me~
"BAILEY + SOLON = SAILEY
MY SHIP SAILEY MUST SAIL"

SCREW THAT SHIZ #BANNIE = BAILEY & ANNIE

P.S. Shipped Sailey before it was cannon bitches.
YYW
Posts: 36,282
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11/10/2014 7:41:10 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I would add to this... don't do stupid sh!t. Even if your meta is such that you have a reputation for being audacious, breaking norms is one of the most anti-town things that can be done, and it almost always results in a mislynch if some reckless townie does it.

The reason is because even if something seems like a good idea, and makes perfect sense, players who act out of line are just as harmful to the town as players who have "actual" nefarious motives. The reason is because audacious things have a tendency to look nefarious, especially when someone throws a "hail mary" (if you don't know that reference, google it) when it was (1) unnecessary, (2) when it could have been avoided earlier on, and (3) when it is in effort to stop what you think is a mislynch. Whether you are right or wrong, the *cost* of your doing that audacious thing will NEVER be greater than the benefits unless your *imminent death* is an acceptable cost. Sometimes it is, if you have a death activated role. Most often, it is not. When townies do dumb things, they get killed.

The reason is because (1) behavioral analysis -while the most reliable tool out there- is *highly* subjective, (2) breaking norms -by the virtue of the acts occurrence- inevitably raises suspicion. This is where the dark side of behavioral analysis comes in: policy lynches. I hate them, for many reasons. I think they are bad, unfortunate, etc. etc. etc. But they are there to make the game *playable*. It's a way of managing expectations, so that the rest of us actually *can* analyze your behavior.

Example: if there is wagon on you, and all you have to do to get that wagon off of you is claim and you do not have a death activated role, then claim because not doing so *wastes the town's time*. Time is a scarce resource in mafia because DP's are not really that long. We don't have time to ferret out the specific idiosyncrasies of one stubborn and imprudent player's "principles." The town needs to be *scum hunting*. It's that simple. If a stubborn townie wastes the town's time, he deserves to die. Again, I hate policy lynches, but wasting the town's time hurts the town.

Example, the second: If there is a wagon on someone who, for whatever reason, refuses to claim, and there is no time to do anything else productive because there are hours remaining in the DP, regardless of how strongly you town read someone, taking the pressure off that person in a way that prevents the town from lynching an uncooperative member is EXTREMELY anti-town. It's the equivalent of saying "fvck all of you guys! I do what I want!" And perhaps that's something you like to do, but, whether that's the case or not is inconsequential. What matters is how the *specific actions you take* relate to the town.

The far better thing to do is to, in the course of the game, *participate* and *contribute* rather than doing the "fvck you guys, I do what I want* number -and the reason should be clear! If you, as an individual player, do something like that I can say with almost virtual certainty that it's going to get you lynched almost every time. One time in one game is one thing; but multiple times in several games? This is why there are policy lynches. But now, rather than having a policy lynch on just one person, we've got policy lynches on two people. That said, even if one player "intervenes," that doesn't mean that the player that he intervened to save is not scum. It means that one act of imprudence has caused another.
Tsar of DDO
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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11/10/2014 8:18:52 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 6:19:34 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 6:18:27 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 6:06:40 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 5:03:46 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 5:01:52 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
Bish, diz be my forum. Gtfo.

Bish, I be da elite. Itz all ma forumz.

Bish, why you be lyin fuh? Wah gud dah gonna do yuh? *pats head*

Marry meh to YYW?

We all know YYW is dah Elitest elite out der' man.

That's fo' shuh

lol you are too cute
c'mere: https://plus.google.com...

Can't. My regular laptop's broken, and my mom's (which I am borrowing) can't handle the bandwidth.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
YYW
Posts: 36,282
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11/10/2014 9:12:29 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 6:18:27 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 6:06:40 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
At 11/10/2014 5:03:46 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 5:01:52 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
Bish, diz be my forum. Gtfo.

Bish, I be da elite. Itz all ma forumz.

Bish, why you be lyin fuh? Wah gud dah gonna do yuh? *pats head*

Marry meh to YYW?

I do.

We all know YYW is dah Elitest elite out der' man.

That's fo' shuh
Tsar of DDO
bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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11/10/2014 9:14:43 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 9:12:29 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/10/2014 6:18:27 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 6:06:40 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
Bish, why you be lyin fuh? Wah gud dah gonna do yuh? *pats head*

Marry meh to YYW?

I do.

I do too. I love you so much.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
YYW
Posts: 36,282
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11/10/2014 9:17:19 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 9:14:43 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 9:12:29 PM, YYW wrote:
At 11/10/2014 6:18:27 PM, bsh1 wrote:
At 11/10/2014 6:06:40 PM, ESocialBookworm wrote:
Bish, why you be lyin fuh? Wah gud dah gonna do yuh? *pats head*

Marry meh to YYW?

I do.

I do too. I love you so much.

<3
Tsar of DDO
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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11/10/2014 10:39:35 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/10/2014 7:41:10 PM, YYW wrote:
I would add to this... don't do stupid sh!t. Even if your meta is such that you have a reputation for being audacious, breaking norms is one of the most anti-town things that can be done, and it almost always results in a mislynch if some reckless townie does it.

Actually as a liberal I'd expect you to not advocate for sticking to norms just because it's the norm. Sticking to norms is no different than just playing like a robot. It also makes town extremely easy to manipulate. Sticking to norms is saying town should act in an extremely predictable manner. Town can't win by having a list of standard operating procedures and ruthlessly sticking by them.

This is why I prefer being scum there is no expectation of SOP. There is with some stuff like killing the cops and doctors first etc., but it's not as bad. When I lead scum I like to do it by manipulating town in a social way such as killing any clear leader so the voting is more fragmented.

The reason is because even if something seems like a good idea, and makes perfect sense, players who act out of line are just as harmful to the town as players who have "actual" nefarious motives.

Your goal as town should be to scum hunt. Only scum need to worry about not seeming scummy and in fact when you have players who don't care if they look towny or not it can make reading scum a little easier. You got those not afraid to look scummy (typically town) and those trying not to get lynched (typically scum).

The reason is because audacious things have a tendency to look nefarious, especially when someone throws a "hail mary" (if you don't know that reference, google it) when it was (1) unnecessary, (2) when it could have been avoided earlier on, and (3) when it is in effort to stop what you think is a mislynch.

It definitely was a mislynch and you shouldn't be bringing up other games outside of that game, even if you do attempt to thinly veil it. If somebody has the power to stop a town member from getting lynched they should clearly do so. Even if it is DP1. On top of that it is my personal philosophy to use X shot abilities early. I'd rather use them early if it is a positive EV (expected value) play because at least you know they'll be used.

Whether you are right or wrong, the *cost* of your doing that audacious thing will NEVER be greater than the benefits unless your *imminent death* is an acceptable cost. Sometimes it is, if you have a death activated role. Most often, it is not. When townies do dumb things, they get killed.

It actually shouldn't be seen as audacious to prevent a mislynch and with literally 6 hours left in a DP and not many players online at the time my guess is that 90% of the time the DP would end in a no lynch and even if not lynching a player who is now vanilla instead of a town asset is a good trade off. overall a plus EV play.

Often times the person who was most scum read on DP1 is now a clear town read on DP2 so buying an extra day so town has a chance to cool their head and make correct decisions is a good route to go.

The reason is because (1) behavioral analysis -while the most reliable tool out there- is *highly* subjective, (2) breaking norms -by the virtue of the acts occurrence- inevitably raises suspicion. This is where the dark side of behavioral analysis comes in: policy lynches. I hate them, for many reasons. I think they are bad, unfortunate, etc. etc. etc. But they are there to make the game *playable*. It's a way of managing expectations, so that the rest of us actually *can* analyze your behavior.

I don't disagree with policy lynches altogether but they are over used quite a bit. Here is the correct way to scum hunt, please compare to the incorrect way.

Did The person break norm?

Yes= they are scum

No= They are town

Here is another incorrect way?

Is what they did anti town?

Yes= scum

no= town

Here is the correct way to analyze

What is the person's motivation?

This can sometimes be answered by asking them.

Is it town or scum motivated?

If it's scum motivated (seemingly) than you just look for possible alternate explanations and assign those explanations some sort of value, then you look at all their behaviors not just a few in a vacuum.

Example: if there is wagon on you, and all you have to do to get that wagon off of you is claim and you do not have a death activated role, then claim because not doing so *wastes the town's time*.

There are plenty of reasons why claiming on DP1 can be antitown, especially with a mass claim preceding that pressure. Sometimes it might be better just to refuse claiming. If your role is useless after claiming you might as well let yourself get lynched. If I'm a bomb or something under that kind of pressure I'll just fake claim some power role and hope not to get CCed but some people don't believe in lying to town and will just get lynched on principal. Just because you don't agree with another town members approach to the game, doesn't mean they should be lynched.

Just take a breath and a step back and look at the game in a dispassionate state. The goal is to keep town alive and lynch scum, it's not to try and alter somebody's behavior through policy lynches. people just need to get used to playing with people who have a wide variety of approaches to the game.

Time is a scarce resource in mafia because DP's are not really that long. We don't have time to ferret out the specific idiosyncrasies of one stubborn and imprudent player's "principles." The town needs to be *scum hunting*. It's that simple. If a stubborn townie wastes the town's time, he deserves to die. Again, I hate policy lynches, but wasting the town's time hurts the town.

That can be avoided if you simplify it to looking at motivations instead of looking at how well somebody falls into line with what everybody else does. There is too much

x behavior= scum

Y behavior= town

Again look at motivation instead of what specific behaviors mean

Example, the second: If there is a wagon on someone who, for whatever reason, refuses to claim, and there is no time to do anything else productive because there are hours remaining in the DP, regardless of how strongly you town read someone, taking the pressure off that person in a way that prevents the town from lynching an uncooperative member is EXTREMELY anti-town.

No it's not. It's simple, keep as many of town as possible alive while killing as many scum as possible.

The far better thing to do is to, in the course of the game, *participate* and *contribute* rather than doing the "fvck you guys, I do what I want* number -and the reason should be clear! If you, as an individual player, do something like that I can say with almost virtual certainty that it's going to get you lynched almost every time. One time in one game is one thing; but multiple times in several games? This is why there are policy lynches. But now, rather than having a policy lynch on just one person, we've got policy lynches on two people. That said, even if one player "intervenes," that doesn't mean that the player that he intervened to save is not scum. It means that one act of imprudence has caused another.

The second player in your example won't get lynched. If it was policy lynches why state that you're 100% sure both people are scum?

You can't tell people to forget about principals and go with the flow (something that makes town extremely easy to manipulate by scum) and then policy lynch them on principal.

There are always going to be varying styles of play and this is why you should focus on what's motivating people instead of focusing who falls in line real well.

As a matter of fact trying to fit in is something scum want to do. Scum just need to survive so all they need to do is fit in.

Town has to scum hunt. focusing on trying to fit in or analyzing whether people act within