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Beginners' Mafia 33.1: DP2

bsh1
Posts: 27,503
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11/23/2014 2:28:56 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
DIED IN THE NIGHT

XLAV - You are the DOCTOR. Each night you may select a player and shield them from lethal actions. You win with the town.

Carrie - You are the ROLE COP. Each night you may select a player. You will learn their role but not their affiliation. You win with the mafia.

LIVING PLAYERS

Rev
Honest
Subutai
MDTL
Yama
Harder
Airmax
Wylted

With 8 players left, it takes 5 votes to lynch.
The DP ends at 1:00am, DDO time, on 11/25/14.


Good luck!
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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ESocialBookworm
Posts: 14,355
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11/23/2014 5:11:06 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 2:28:56 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Airmax is playing O_O
Solonkr~
I don't care about whether an ideology is "necessary" or not,
I care about how to solve problems,
which is what everyone else should also care about.

Ken~
In essence, the world is fucked up and you can either ignore it, become cynical or bitter about it.

Me~
"BAILEY + SOLON = SAILEY
MY SHIP SAILEY MUST SAIL"

SCREW THAT SHIZ #BANNIE = BAILEY & ANNIE

P.S. Shipped Sailey before it was cannon bitches.
RevNge
Posts: 13,835
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11/23/2014 9:29:20 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 9:17:01 AM, Honest_Knife wrote:
VTL airmax. Give us a good reason to not kill you.

VTL Honest

Give us a good reason not to lynch you.

You'd be a much more expendable loss than Max, and as much as he's a tyrant, I read him as Town.
1harderthanyouthink
Posts: 13,098
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11/23/2014 9:41:44 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 9:17:01 AM, Honest_Knife wrote:
VTL airmax. Give us a good reason to not kill you.

Airmax has a lot of experience...that's a nice thing to keep.
"It's awfully considerate of you to think of me here,
And I'm much obliged to you for making it clear - that I'm not here."

-Syd Barrett

DDO Risk King
Honest_Knife
Posts: 68
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11/23/2014 9:47:04 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 9:29:20 AM, RevNge wrote:
At 11/23/2014 9:17:01 AM, Honest_Knife wrote:
VTL airmax. Give us a good reason to not kill you.

VTL Honest

Give us a good reason not to lynch you.

I've been far more active than Max, who I believe has posted twice.

You'd be a much more expendable loss than Max, and as much as he's a tyrant, I read him as Town.

I skimmed a few of his past games, he posts reads like that in all of them, scum or town. So why do you town read him?
Subutai
Posts: 3,168
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11/23/2014 9:47:48 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Well, now we know XLAV was town, but we don't know what his voting strategy was. Carrie was mafia, so it makes me think missdebate may be scum. And Honest just gave a crappy reason for VTLing airmax, so he may be scum as well. The final two potentials are Rev and Harder, but only because XLAV VTLed them during the course of DP1.

VTL Honest_Knife. Explain your actions.
I'm becoming less defined as days go by, fading away, and well you might say, I'm losing focus, kinda drifting into the abstract in terms of how I see myself.
Honest_Knife
Posts: 68
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11/23/2014 9:54:32 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 9:47:48 AM, Subutai wrote:
Well, now we know XLAV was town, but we don't know what his voting strategy was. Carrie was mafia, so it makes me think missdebate may be scum. And Honest just gave a crappy reason for VTLing airmax, so he may be scum as well. The final two potentials are Rev and Harder, but only because XLAV VTLed them during the course of DP1.

VTL Honest_Knife. Explain your actions.

I'm null on Max,and want him to make a few more posts so I can have better reads.
Subutai
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11/23/2014 9:55:51 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 9:54:32 AM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 9:47:48 AM, Subutai wrote:
Well, now we know XLAV was town, but we don't know what his voting strategy was. Carrie was mafia, so it makes me think missdebate may be scum. And Honest just gave a crappy reason for VTLing airmax, so he may be scum as well. The final two potentials are Rev and Harder, but only because XLAV VTLed them during the course of DP1.

VTL Honest_Knife. Explain your actions.

I'm null on Max,and want him to make a few more posts so I can have better reads.

Then don't VTL him yet. VTLing without evidence makes you look like scum, whatever your intentions are.
I'm becoming less defined as days go by, fading away, and well you might say, I'm losing focus, kinda drifting into the abstract in terms of how I see myself.
airmax1227
Posts: 13,233
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11/23/2014 1:01:46 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I don't really understand the NK on XLAV. I suppose he's one of the more experienced players, but unless I missed something, I don't recall him soft claiming a power role. I also thought his play was kind of scummy (though in line with his style) so he was far from a perceived Pro town player. Perhaps the mafia just guessed right on that NK. Mafia may have targeted him as the most active experienced player though - so that can justify the NK.

As for Carrie, I'm not sure what to think here. Perhaps the death is related to visiting a town/TP role that kills on a visit (PGO etc) or we have a town vig that guessed right. If the latter is true, then that townie really took some serious risks in shooting randomly.

I'm not sure it is in the towns best interests for the reason for this death to be revealed though. So whoever you are that may be responsible for it, give some serious thought if it's worth revealing this information.

I'm going to extend my reads from the previous DP:

Honest seems to be acting in a neutral town way (not really Pro or Anti town), but in such a way that seems is of a genuine town player. His desire to see me post for the sake of getting a better read is pro-town even if his method isn't the most pro town way about going about it. Regardless, I see his actions as a Town move rather than a scum move.

MDTL never replied to my questions and is claiming to be a town roleblocker. For the sake of utility she's still the best lynch target in addition to me reading the lack of response as scummy.

Subutai has been playing in a Pro-town way and has been active. So I town read him.

Honest - Leaning town
MDTL - Leaning scum
Subutai - Leaning town

I'm null on everyone else.

Claims:

Dead:

XLAV - Town DOCTOR.
Carrie - Mafia ROLE COP.

Living:

Honest_Knife - Hunter
MissDebateTeamLeader - Role Blocker

Do we have any other claims that I've missed?

Do we have any results from night actions?
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airmax1227
Posts: 13,233
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11/23/2014 1:07:26 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 9:17:01 AM, Honest_Knife wrote:
VTL airmax. Give us a good reason to not kill you.

The BOP is on you ;)

In all seriousness though, even with my limited activity I have been acting pro-town and I don't think I've done anything the least bit scummy. I think making a case for a lynch on me is going to be very difficult.
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airmax1227
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11/23/2014 1:09:21 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 9:17:01 AM, Honest_Knife wrote:
VTL airmax. Give us a good reason to not kill you.

Can you humor me and explain again what the hunter does?
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Honest_Knife
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11/23/2014 1:18:51 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 1:09:21 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/23/2014 9:17:01 AM, Honest_Knife wrote:
VTL airmax. Give us a good reason to not kill you.

Can you humor me and explain again what the hunter does?

If I'm killed I can choose another player to die with me. Why do you ask?
airmax1227
Posts: 13,233
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11/23/2014 1:19:40 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 1:18:51 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:09:21 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/23/2014 9:17:01 AM, Honest_Knife wrote:
VTL airmax. Give us a good reason to not kill you.

Can you humor me and explain again what the hunter does?

If I'm killed I can choose another player to die with me. Why do you ask?

I have a theory. I'll post it shortly.
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airmax1227
Posts: 13,233
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11/23/2014 1:44:22 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I think I'm going to have to reassess my read on Honest....

Honest simply got unlucky that he was the target for early pressure. It took him a little while to claim, but not an excessive amount of time.

Assuming for a moment that he is scum, this would be the time he used to consider what to claim and consider the odds of getting CC'd. Since we have a list of town roles, it's as simple as him looking through the list and selecting what he thinks is the least likely to be used.

Honest claims: "Hunter - If lynched, may kill another player"

I think this is a relatively safe fake claim. It isn't used that often (I don't recall it much personally at least) and it disincentives town from lynching him since they have to fear retribution for doing so. So ultimately, it's a very good fake claim for both of those reasons - and keep in mind that he had to claim early.

Now, the reason I'm bringing this up now is because of my claim, which for the sake of providing this analysis I will provide.

I am the Super Saint.

"Super Saint - If lynched, kills whoever placed the last vote"

I find it hard to believe that there would be two "anti-lynch" roles in the game.

Yes, it's possible. And yes, this isn't necessarily geared too far in either an anti-town or anti-mafia way, but it doesn't seem plausible to me.

Assuming we are both telling the truth, we have two roles that the town has to be worried about lynching.

The town can't lynch me without losing the player that hammers, and the town can't lynch Honest without the Town losing a player of his choice. This means the town is discouraged from lynching two players out of fear of the consequences from it, which is really advantageous to the mafia.

(On the other hand, we can use a (mis)lynch of Honest strategically, making him agree to kill a particular player if he happens to be claiming his actual role)

So I'm FOSing Honest because I don't believe these claims can co-exist.

I'll consider whether it's worth pushing the lynch though and in the meantime I think we should get some claims.

VTL Wylted for claim
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airmax1227
Posts: 13,233
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11/23/2014 1:46:11 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Claims:

Dead:

XLAV - Town DOCTOR.
Carrie - Mafia ROLE COP.

Living:

Honest_Knife - Hunter (can choose a player to kill if lynched)
MissDebateTeamLeader - Role Blocker (Role blocks)
Airmax - Super Saint (Kills whoever hammers)

No claim:

Rev
Subutai
Yama
Harder
Wylted
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Honest_Knife
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11/23/2014 1:52:01 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 1:44:22 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
I think I'm going to have to reassess my read on Honest....

Honest simply got unlucky that he was the target for early pressure. It took him a little while to claim, but not an excessive amount of time.

Assuming for a moment that he is scum, this would be the time he used to consider what to claim and consider the odds of getting CC'd. Since we have a list of town roles, it's as simple as him looking through the list and selecting what he thinks is the least likely to be used.

Honest claims: "Hunter - If lynched, may kill another player"

I think this is a relatively safe fake claim. It isn't used that often (I don't recall it much personally at least) and it disincentives town from lynching him since they have to fear retribution for doing so. So ultimately, it's a very good fake claim for both of those reasons - and keep in mind that he had to claim early.

Now, the reason I'm bringing this up now is because of my claim, which for the sake of providing this analysis I will provide.

I am the Super Saint.

"Super Saint - If lynched, kills whoever placed the last vote"

I find it hard to believe that there would be two "anti-lynch" roles in the game.

Yes, it's possible. And yes, this isn't necessarily geared too far in either an anti-town or anti-mafia way, but it doesn't seem plausible to me.

Assuming we are both telling the truth, we have two roles that the town has to be worried about lynching.

The town can't lynch me without losing the player that hammers, and the town can't lynch Honest without the Town losing a player of his choice. This means the town is discouraged from lynching two players out of fear of the consequences from it, which is really advantageous to the mafia.

(On the other hand, we can use a (mis)lynch of Honest strategically, making him agree to kill a particular player if he happens to be claiming his actual role)

So I'm FOSing Honest because I don't believe these claims can co-exist.

I'll consider whether it's worth pushing the lynch though and in the meantime I think we should get some claims.

VTL Wylted for claim

In any other game that would be a solid reason to FOS me, but according to bsh's second post in DP1,
"Roles have been generated randomly, and have been randomly assigned."
airmax1227
Posts: 13,233
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11/23/2014 1:56:52 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 1:52:01 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:

In any other game that would be a solid reason to FOS me, but according to bsh's second post in DP1,
"Roles have been generated randomly, and have been randomly assigned."

While I'd to think that BSH may have adjusted things for the sake of balance, we have no choice but to assume it's accurate... so fair enough.

Who are your top scum reads?
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Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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11/23/2014 2:29:00 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
If honest and airmax are town this game is pretty much in the bag for town. I'm oracle. I'd consider lynching me this DP since I'm more beneficial dead right now. My reads aren't particularly good this game.

VTL Wylted
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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11/23/2014 2:32:29 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
I'm going to reread DP1 to see if the XLAV NK makes sense but I just don't see it right now. We probably got a really inexperienced mafia.
Honest_Knife
Posts: 68
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11/23/2014 2:36:52 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 1:56:52 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:52:01 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:

In any other game that would be a solid reason to FOS me, but according to bsh's second post in DP1,
"Roles have been generated randomly, and have been randomly assigned."

While I'd to think that BSH may have adjusted things for the sake of balance, we have no choice but to assume it's accurate... so fair enough.

Who are your top scum reads?

1harder could have been scumhunting or helping town when he was on, instead of making one post and then leaving. Other than that, no big scum reads.

But, we do have one potentially confirmed town, since there's no TP. Whoever caused carrie's death please claim.
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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11/23/2014 2:38:36 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 2:36:52 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:56:52 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:52:01 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:

In any other game that would be a solid reason to FOS me, but according to bsh's second post in DP1,
"Roles have been generated randomly, and have been randomly assigned."

While I'd to think that BSH may have adjusted things for the sake of balance, we have no choice but to assume it's accurate... so fair enough.

Who are your top scum reads?

1harder could have been scumhunting or helping town when he was on, instead of making one post and then leaving. Other than that, no big scum reads.

But, we do have one potentially confirmed town, since there's no TP. Whoever caused carrie's death please claim.

Why would you want to out the vig?
MissDebateTeamLeader
Posts: 13
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11/23/2014 2:41:05 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Hello everyone! I'm sorry for my absence, I've been getting ready for a trip to my home country, so I haven't had much time on here.
((P.S. This means weird posting times, be warned.))
Also, I might not post for the reason of observation. My big mouth got me into a lot if trouble last time, so I want to observe so that I don't jump to conclusions.
"Imaaaagination!"-Spongebob
"Do you what you want, 'cause a pirate is free! YOU ARE A PIRATE!"-Me
Honest_Knife
Posts: 68
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11/23/2014 2:41:09 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 2:38:36 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:36:52 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:56:52 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:52:01 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:

In any other game that would be a solid reason to FOS me, but according to bsh's second post in DP1,
"Roles have been generated randomly, and have been randomly assigned."

While I'd to think that BSH may have adjusted things for the sake of balance, we have no choice but to assume it's accurate... so fair enough.

Who are your top scum reads?

1harder could have been scumhunting or helping town when he was on, instead of making one post and then leaving. Other than that, no big scum reads.

But, we do have one potentially confirmed town, since there's no TP. Whoever caused carrie's death please claim.

Why would you want to out the vig?

To limit lynch targets, and I don't think it's a vig. A vig would normally waive NP1, so we probably have a granny.
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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11/23/2014 2:43:14 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 2:41:09 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:38:36 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:36:52 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:56:52 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:52:01 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:

In any other game that would be a solid reason to FOS me, but according to bsh's second post in DP1,
"Roles have been generated randomly, and have been randomly assigned."

While I'd to think that BSH may have adjusted things for the sake of balance, we have no choice but to assume it's accurate... so fair enough.

Who are your top scum reads?

1harder could have been scumhunting or helping town when he was on, instead of making one post and then leaving. Other than that, no big scum reads.

But, we do have one potentially confirmed town, since there's no TP. Whoever caused carrie's death please claim.

Why would you want to out the vig?

To limit lynch targets, and I don't think it's a vig. A vig would normally waive NP1, so we probably have a granny.

no we don't that role isn't even on the list. It's a vig.
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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11/23/2014 2:44:14 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 2:41:05 PM, MissDebateTeamLeader wrote:
Hello everyone! I'm sorry for my absence, I've been getting ready for a trip to my home country, so I haven't had much time on here.
((P.S. This means weird posting times, be warned.))
Also, I might not post for the reason of observation. My big mouth got me into a lot if trouble last time, so I want to observe so that I don't jump to conclusions.

What were your actions last NP?
Honest_Knife
Posts: 68
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11/23/2014 2:48:35 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 2:43:14 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:41:09 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:38:36 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:36:52 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:56:52 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:52:01 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:

In any other game that would be a solid reason to FOS me, but according to bsh's second post in DP1,
"Roles have been generated randomly, and have been randomly assigned."

While I'd to think that BSH may have adjusted things for the sake of balance, we have no choice but to assume it's accurate... so fair enough.

Who are your top scum reads?

1harder could have been scumhunting or helping town when he was on, instead of making one post and then leaving. Other than that, no big scum reads.

But, we do have one potentially confirmed town, since there's no TP. Whoever caused carrie's death please claim.

Why would you want to out the vig?

To limit lynch targets, and I don't think it's a vig. A vig would normally waive NP1, so we probably have a granny.

no we don't that role isn't even on the list. It's a vig.

Sorry, I meant Paranoid Gun Owner.
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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11/23/2014 2:58:15 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 11/23/2014 2:48:35 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:43:14 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:41:09 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:38:36 PM, Wylted wrote:
At 11/23/2014 2:36:52 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:56:52 PM, airmax1227 wrote:
At 11/23/2014 1:52:01 PM, Honest_Knife wrote:

In any other game that would be a solid reason to FOS me, but according to bsh's second post in DP1,
"Roles have been generated randomly, and have been randomly assigned."

While I'd to think that BSH may have adjusted things for the sake of balance, we have no choice but to assume it's accurate... so fair enough.

Who are your top scum reads?

1harder could have been scumhunting or helping town when he was on, instead of making one post and then leaving. Other than that, no big scum reads.

But, we do have one potentially confirmed town, since there's no TP. Whoever caused carrie's death please claim.

Why would you want to out the vig?

To limit lynch targets, and I don't think it's a vig. A vig would normally waive NP1, so we probably have a granny.

no we don't that role isn't even on the list. It's a vig.

Sorry, I meant Paranoid Gun Owner.

I guess you could be righf. I think town doesn't have many visiting roles so it shouldn't be too much of a problem.