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Mafia Theory 101: Doctor and Watcher Basics

Nymphomaniac
Posts: 665
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12/1/2014 11:28:26 PM
Posted: 2 years ago
Doctors and watchers should target important roles and confirmed townies. Important roles include cops, JOATs, and vigilantes. Doctors should prioritize protecting these roles, as these roles usually have a high potential for confirmation, pose a significant threat to the mafia, and are rarely if ever lynched. Watchers should prioritize these roles too, because the chance mafia will target these roles is high, and watcher functions as a protective role by discouraging mafia from targeting these roles, and by imposing significant consequences if they choose to sacrifice a member to take out a cop.

Doctors and watchers should rarely (if ever) target negative utility roles. Negative utility roles are unlikely to be killed, and they hinder the town rather than posing a threat to mafia. They are also hard to confirm. Negative utility roles include roleblocker, rolestopper, miller, and even redirector.

When there isn't an important role to target, doctors and watchers should be on confirmed townies. Mod-confirmed townies are a priority for mafia to take out, because those townies will never be lynched. Other townies who have confirmed their status as town (through a combination of results, theme, role, and/or behavior) are also a priority to protect. You can tell if a townie is confirmed by the overall outlook on that player. If that player has 0% chance of getting lynched, the mafia are likely to try killing that player.

Finally, if none of the above are present, then doctors and watchers should be on the best player in the game. Why? Because in the absence of the above, the mafia will target the best townie, because they view that townie as the biggest threat.
Fill all my holes, please.

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: At 11/17/2014 9:30:55 AM, Wylted wrote:
: I killed Nymph because her reads were incredibly good. I thought it was a result of inside knowledge.
XLAV
Posts: 13,713
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12/2/2014 1:42:37 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
I got a couple of questions.

Which is more important, important roles or important townies?

If there are no important roles or important townies, why should we protect the best player? The best player could be scum feeding town BS and lead mislynches from one DP to another. Why not your town read?
Nymphomaniac
Posts: 665
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12/2/2014 9:58:06 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
Your goal is to predict the night-kill. Mafia want to take out the biggest threats. The order depends on the threat a player poses. Cops are a priority. Confirmed townies are at LYLO but cops are more of a threat unless it's just a godfather left.

The best player, if town, is likely the night-kill if there aren't any important roles or confirmed town. Of course, this depends on how you define "confirmed," so you have to weigh the two based on what you think the mafia will do, given the current game state. You're right that sometimes the best player is mafia but given random probability, that chance is low. Unless you think that player is mafia, he probably isn't and mafia want to kill her.
Fill all my holes, please.

http://www.debate.org...

: At 11/17/2014 9:30:55 AM, Wylted wrote:
: I killed Nymph because her reads were incredibly good. I thought it was a result of inside knowledge.
Smithereens
Posts: 5,512
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12/4/2014 5:12:41 AM
Posted: 2 years ago
At 12/2/2014 1:42:37 AM, XLAV wrote:
I got a couple of questions.

Which is more important, important roles or important townies?

If there are no important roles or important townies, why should we protect the best player? The best player could be scum feeding town BS and lead mislynches from one DP to another. Why not your town read?

It's generally a bad idea to trust your own reads, as that reflects confirmation bias. There is no such thing as an important townie per se. A townie may be important due to his roles or his contribution, neither of which actually confirm him as town. If his role has made him a confirmed townie, then he is the most important person in the game, however, game contribution should always be valued higher than role contribution in my opinion for the sake of developing a stronger mafia community.
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