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Sword Art Online ENDGAME

Zaradi
Posts: 14,125
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3/5/2015 9:24:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
TOWN WINS!

Role PMs: https://docs.google.com...

Night Actions: https://docs.google.com...

Mod Analysis:

I honestly feel like this was scum's game to lose and lost it they did. It was a series of blunders after blunders and town was able to capitalize on most of them in order to win the game.

To start out the analysis of this game, though, I want to explain how night actions were tallied and the order in which night actions resolved. With transferring between day phases complicating things a little bit, I used the following order of resolution:

Transfer requests came first, then roleblocks, then normal night actions, then kills.

For those of you who received messages like "Your Night Action Failed", it was because you tried to target someone who either transferred out of the day phase you were in, or you targeted someone who wasn't in the same day phase as you to begin with.

The action resolution chain, imo, allowed for the most amounts of counter-play from both sides, giving town ways to capitalize on scum movements and gives them ways to confirm other players who wouldn't have been confirmable before, whereas it gives scum ways to capitalize on town being careless.

A great example of scum being able to use the action resolution to their advantage was Skep's kill onto Daytona while Daytona was in transit, which I found really funny because it created a lot of confusion and almost bought Skep a day.

But scum's play this game was just....absolutely mind-boggling.

Scum had so many tools that they could use to try and get some results in their favor, but waived kills and never used their roles. Skep kept commuting and never doing anything with his role even though there wasn't any kind of suspicion on him for the longest time...like they had freaking Kirito as an option to just strong-man and take out of the game from the get-go. They even had a silence that they could've used to just take Endarkened out of a day phase entirely and try to retake some control over the analysis being thrown out there. But instead they just didn't do anything...

And I'm not even gonna address DP1. Even after having multiple conversations with mikal I'm still not sure what he was trying to go for and how it was even supposed to work.

If I had to give MVPs out, I'd give town MVP out to Endarkened this game. His analysis was spot on his his ability to coordinate the town into pinning down the scum was actually impressive.

And I can't really think of a scum MVP to give out since I really think that scum misplayed the hell out of this game. But yeah....
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YamaVonKarma
Posts: 7,570
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3/5/2015 9:27:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I accept this as a win over Mikal.
I do not accept this as a win against scum.
That was not an honorable way to win at all for us.
People who I've called as mafia DP1:
TUF, and YYW
Zaradi
Posts: 14,125
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3/5/2015 9:30:11 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:28:43 PM, RevNge wrote:
At 3/5/2015 9:24:39 PM, Zaradi wrote:
Asada would have been perfect for PGO in reality.

It wouldn't have been balanced for reality, especially since there weren't really any visiting roles.
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EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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3/5/2015 9:30:38 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I accept MVP for the first half of the game. I don't know what the hell happened to me in the second half. I let Khaos talk me into town-reading him again, but that just ruined my play for the rest of the game. :-/

It was a lot of fun to play! Thanks, Zaradi! Maintaining two separate states can't have been easy.
RevNge
Posts: 13,835
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3/5/2015 9:31:38 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:30:11 PM, Zaradi wrote:
At 3/5/2015 9:28:43 PM, RevNge wrote:
At 3/5/2015 9:24:39 PM, Zaradi wrote:
Asada would have been perfect for PGO in reality.

It wouldn't have been balanced for reality, especially since there weren't really any visiting roles.

True. I just pointed out that it seemed fitting. :3
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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3/5/2015 9:35:55 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:30:38 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
I accept MVP for the first half of the game. I don't know what the hell happened to me in the second half. I let Khaos talk me into town-reading him again, but that just ruined my play for the rest of the game. :-/

It was a lot of fun to play! Thanks, Zaradi! Maintaining two separate states can't have been easy.

I like how getting you to town read me, which I was town, leads you to fall apart.
However, you did convince me that Valkrin was likely scum.

But seriously, Mikal is a bastard and I called him out as scum with his first post, and I can't believe I was being scum read for doing the most pro-town move.
My work here is, finally, done.
daytonanerd
Posts: 6,769
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3/5/2015 9:36:41 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:24:39 PM, Zaradi wrote:
TOWN WINS!

Role PMs: https://docs.google.com...


Night Actions: https://docs.google.com...


Mod Analysis:

I honestly feel like this was scum's game to lose and lost it they did. It was a series of blunders after blunders and town was able to capitalize on most of them in order to win the game.

To start out the analysis of this game, though, I want to explain how night actions were tallied and the order in which night actions resolved. With transferring between day phases complicating things a little bit, I used the following order of resolution:

Transfer requests came first, then roleblocks, then normal night actions, then kills.

For those of you who received messages like "Your Night Action Failed", it was because you tried to target someone who either transferred out of the day phase you were in, or you targeted someone who wasn't in the same day phase as you to begin with.

The action resolution chain, imo, allowed for the most amounts of counter-play from both sides, giving town ways to capitalize on scum movements and gives them ways to confirm other players who wouldn't have been confirmable before, whereas it gives scum ways to capitalize on town being careless.

A great example of scum being able to use the action resolution to their advantage was Skep's kill onto Daytona while Daytona was in transit, which I found really funny because it created a lot of confusion and almost bought Skep a day.

But scum's play this game was just....absolutely mind-boggling.

Scum had so many tools that they could use to try and get some results in their favor, but waived kills and never used their roles. Skep kept commuting and never doing anything with his role even though there wasn't any kind of suspicion on him for the longest time...like they had freaking Kirito as an option to just strong-man and take out of the game from the get-go. They even had a silence that they could've used to just take Endarkened out of a day phase entirely and try to retake some control over the analysis being thrown out there. But instead they just didn't do anything...

And I'm not even gonna address DP1. Even after having multiple conversations with mikal I'm still not sure what he was trying to go for and how it was even supposed to work.

If I had to give MVPs out, I'd give town MVP out to Endarkened this game. His analysis was spot on his his ability to coordinate the town into pinning down the scum was actually impressive.

And I can't really think of a scum MVP to give out since I really think that scum misplayed the hell out of this game. But yeah....

Zaradi, when did you become aware about the DP1 OP error?
#FeeltheFreezerBern
Zaradi
Posts: 14,125
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3/5/2015 9:41:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:36:41 PM, daytonanerd wrote:

About DP3 or 4 whenever it had become irrelevant anyway because Mikal was dead and scum had already basically lost the game. It was confirmation bias and didn't really play as big of a role as you're thinking.

Needless to say I'm still not doing it again but it didn't have that big of an impact in the game overall.
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Zaradi
Posts: 14,125
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3/5/2015 9:41:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:36:41 PM, daytonanerd wrote:

About DP3 or 4 whenever it had become irrelevant anyway because Mikal was dead and scum had already basically lost the game. It was confirmation bias and didn't really play as big of a role as you're thinking.

Needless to say I'm still not doing it again but it didn't have that big of an impact in the game overall.
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Zaradi
Posts: 14,125
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3/5/2015 9:42:45 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Good news is I can finally change my picture away from scantily-clad Asuna and get airmax to raise the banhammer off of the top of my head. .-.
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YamaVonKarma
Posts: 7,570
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3/5/2015 9:43:29 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
So... what was up with Mikal.
Getting nailed so easily as scum DP1 must have been on purpose.
People who I've called as mafia DP1:
TUF, and YYW
YamaVonKarma
Posts: 7,570
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3/5/2015 9:44:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:42:45 PM, Zaradi wrote:
Good news is I can finally change my picture away from scantily-clad Asuna and get airmax to raise the banhammer off of the top of my head. .-.

Weird. I haven't gotten a word for my pic.
People who I've called as mafia DP1:
TUF, and YYW
daytonanerd
Posts: 6,769
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3/5/2015 9:45:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Although it didn't end up having a big impact on the outcome of the game, I think this game is evidence that the SOP for the OP player lists should be the sign-up order.
#FeeltheFreezerBern
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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3/5/2015 9:51:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:45:06 PM, daytonanerd wrote:
Although it didn't end up having a big impact on the outcome of the game, I think this game is evidence that the SOP for the OP player lists should be the sign-up order.

I actively tried to ignore this, which is why I refused to claim and actively tried to obfuscate my character claim DP1.
Plus, Skep wasn't giving up, so I am impressed that he fought that hard, which is largely why I was reluctant to lynch him.
My work here is, finally, done.
Valkrin
Posts: 2,046
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3/5/2015 10:38:35 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ah well.
First mafia game on DDO I played like sh!t, lol. I pretty much have myself away DP2 then it was just a downhill spiral from there. We probably would have done a lot better had I stayed alive, so I take a lot of the blame for scum's failure.

Regardless, good job to town on capitalizing. Hope I get better in the future :P
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." - Vaarka
Valkrin
Posts: 2,046
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3/5/2015 10:39:00 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 10:38:35 PM, Valkrin wrote:
Ah well.
First mafia game on DDO I played like sh!t, lol. I pretty much gave myself away DP2 then it was just a downhill spiral from there. We probably would have done a lot better had I stayed alive, so I take a lot of the blame for scum's failure.

Regardless, good job to town on capitalizing. Hope I get better in the future :P

Fixed
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." - Vaarka
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,285
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3/6/2015 10:11:58 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:41:14 PM, Zaradi wrote:
At 3/5/2015 9:36:41 PM, daytonanerd wrote:

About DP3 or 4 whenever it had become irrelevant anyway because Mikal was dead and scum had already basically lost the game. It was confirmation bias and didn't really play as big of a role as you're thinking.

Needless to say I'm still not doing it again but it didn't have that big of an impact in the game overall.

I disagree with this. As town players were killed, it became increasingly obvious that Daytona was right about the list theory. If one of the scum team died, it would all but confirm it. This meant that as scum killed/lynched people, the likelihood of them being pinned as scum by people following list theory increased, making reaching end game in the traditional way almost impossible. This is why I played as cautiously as I did; the list was always a Sword of Damocles hanging over our heads, and the only way to really discredit it was to build as much towncred as possible to the point that I could argue against the prospect of myself being scum. Otherwise, my lynch could easily be justified as a 'test' of the theory, and then when I flipped scum they would have moved to Valk, or vice versa. This is why, after being pretty strongly town read by most players, I was outright lynched over Valkrin's flip. It wasn't due to behavioral analysis or results, the lynchpin of Daytona's argument was role list theory. Everything else was either illogical or outright fabrication.

This is also why I saved the strongman and silence; because no matter how well confirmed I was, when it got down to four players people would still have a strong incentive to lynch me due to there being three unknowns, from their perspective, and a largely filled player list which fit Daytona's theory. I planned to close the game by silencing one player during that DP to seal a mislynch, travel to the Game DP, and use my strongman to kill one of the two townies who followed me, thus sealing the game.

It is incredibly awkward as scum to play in a situation in which one action which is the goal of the game for you (kill townies) undermines your other goal (stay hidden). This isn't how I usually play as scum. I usually don't waive nightkills. We did it because of the huge negative utility of one of us dying and flipping, verifying the list, which warranted caution, and the low payoff of lynches in the in game DP (the person doesn't die), and of the higher risk of killing people in the lower player pool in the in game DP, since it would make PoE easier to use.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,285
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3/6/2015 10:14:03 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/5/2015 9:51:56 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 3/5/2015 9:45:06 PM, daytonanerd wrote:
Although it didn't end up having a big impact on the outcome of the game, I think this game is evidence that the SOP for the OP player lists should be the sign-up order.

I actively tried to ignore this, which is why I refused to claim and actively tried to obfuscate my character claim DP1.
Plus, Skep wasn't giving up, so I am impressed that he fought that hard, which is largely why I was reluctant to lynch him.

Thanks, Khaos. There are good ways to win a mafia game, and exploiting a moderator error isn't one of them. Kudos for the sportsmanship.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -