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SURPRISE MAFIA: Day Phase Eight

bsh1
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3/8/2015 4:04:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
LYNCHED LAST DP

7th - You are CIVILITY. While you are important in not ticking off the judges, you aren't enough to win on your own. Thus, you are VANILLA. You win with the Town. Town wins when it has eliminated all other factions.

DIED IN THE NIGHT

You are a SOLID LINK STORY. If what you're saying has literally no connection, no link, it is gonna be really hard to buy your impacts. A solid link story is incredibly important, and can make it nigh impossible to delink your warrants from your impacts or to even touch your case. Thus, you are the 2-shot ROLESTOPPER. At night you may select a player. You will essentially make your target the ascetic; they'll be immune to all non-lethal actions. You win with the Town. Town wins when it has eliminated all other factions.

[Hidden Flavor: You are even-night NAIVE; on even nights, (if you use your role) your role will not work, but you will not be informed.]

GRAVEYARD

Khaos - Powerful Rhetoric, Alarmist - Town
Zaradi - Enunciation, Innocent Child - Town
Yama - Dropped Arguments, JOAT - Mafia
Skep (Kiri) - ??? , ??? - ???
Raisor - Slapdash Presentation, Ninja - Mafia
XLAV - ??? , ??? - ???
Endark - Permutation, Tracker - Town
HPG - Impact Turn, Lobbyist - Town
Bossy - Judge, Cult Leader - Cult
Khaos (2) - Warrant, Alarmist - Town
7th - Civility, Vanilla - Town
Korashk (Rocket/FT/Daytona) - Solid Link Story, Rolestopper - Town

LIVING PLAYERS

TUF
Ford
Solon
Medic
Dalt
Blackvoid
Endark (Danielle)
TN05 (Harder/Wylted)
Beginner

With 9 players remaining, it takes 5 votes to lynch.
The DP will end at 4:00am, DDO time, on 3/11/15.


Good luck!
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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3/8/2015 4:04:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
ATTENTION

I have asked both Korashk and Zaradi if they're willing to replace in. If either of them say yes, I will sub them in for TN05 (and possibly Solon if his activity remains low).
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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3/8/2015 4:07:15 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
EDIT

Korashk died in the night and that is his flip that was posted. I accidentally omitted his name.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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ford_prefect
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3/8/2015 4:29:24 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
That NK makes very little sense to me. Wasn't widely town read and didn't have a strong role... Anyone have a theory explaining the strange kill choices?
ford_prefect
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3/8/2015 4:31:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 4:28:25 PM, Beginner wrote:
VTL Ford

Never again.

Remind me Why you are tunneling me again?
Beginner
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3/8/2015 4:49:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 4:31:04 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
At 3/8/2015 4:28:25 PM, Beginner wrote:
VTL Ford

Never again.

Remind me Why you are tunneling me again?

Remind me of your play up to DP6 and all the time prior to me starting to pressure you again?
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Beginner
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3/8/2015 4:50:01 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 4:31:04 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
Also, remind me why you TR'd seventh again?
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SolonKR
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3/8/2015 4:52:20 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 4:28:25 PM, Beginner wrote:
VTL Ford

Never again.

-_-
His role is confirmed popular. I don't see why you keep going after him.

There are only a few people left that I don't townread, so I think this ought to be a fairly easy game from here on out. I have no idea why they would have killed Korashk, but I do know that the pile of possible scum is pretty thin: TN05, Medic, TUF.

The choice for lynching today is clear.
VTL TN05
SO to Bailey, the love of my life <3
medic0506
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3/8/2015 4:55:25 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 4:29:24 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
That NK makes very little sense to me. Wasn't widely town read and didn't have a strong role... Anyone have a theory explaining the strange kill choices?

I find it hard to see why there is no watcher, yet the cop is still alive. I looked at last DP to see who Korash's suspicions were and found this comment in post 37...

"To me, Beginner and Seventh are the likeliest mafioso in this game."

7th is gone so who's next for him to come after?? It could also have to do with the cop results. He was allegedly copped innocent.
medic0506
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3/8/2015 5:14:10 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 4:52:20 PM, SolonKR wrote:
At 3/8/2015 4:28:25 PM, Beginner wrote:
VTL Ford

Never again.

-_-
His role is confirmed popular. I don't see why you keep going after him.

There are only a few people left that I don't townread, so I think this ought to be a fairly easy game from here on out. I have no idea why they would have killed Korashk, but I do know that the pile of possible scum is pretty thin: TN05, Medic, TUF.

The choice for lynching today is clear.
VTL TN05

You do realize that the mod confirmed that Zaradi's info would not have been revealed that DP since he was dead, do you not?? So, if I'm not the coroner as I claimed, and I didn't reveal that info, then why was it revealed?? What role other than coroner can reveal janitored information?? Including me on that list is nonsense, as is stating that those are the only 3 that could be scum.
Beginner
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3/8/2015 5:48:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 4:52:20 PM, SolonKR wrote:

-_-
His role is confirmed popular. I don't see why you keep going after him.
I don't get how his being popular means his being town. Sucking up to judges doesn't sound like a role that would be town-oriented. In fact, I was popular mafia in a recent game in G+ hangouts, so I don't believe Ford is town-confirmed to the least. Roles aside, Ford's behavior has been incredibly anti-town to say the least. That he was on the other side of the Yama wagon (but Dalt might be mafia too, so this could be null).

I've been reading some of my past games on mafiascum, and its made me very cynical about players like Dalt who can appear town in every individual post but still ultimately be scum. I'm very happy that people supported me on the seventh lynch (by extension gratitude extends to Dalt) and very unhappy that seventh flipped town. I pretty sure that some of those who aided me last DP on seventh were scum.
I wouldn't be surprised if Dalt were mafia at this point in the game..

The ones who I think are most likely mafia out of that wagon are E.R. and TN05. The reasoning E.R.'s proposed for mafia's not NKing him (potential GF) is one fo the flimsiest and conditional excuses I've ever heard. Also, if our miller claim, TN05, isn't really miller, then what we have to work with is an increased likelihood that a cop either doesn't exist or is one of our janitored deaths.

I'm wary of TUF and BV. BV's pretty much been wrong on everything and denying wagons here and there. Let's look at the fact that scum almost certainly knew bossy was cult leader and yet did not say anything about it for 5 consecutive days. Mafia is pretending to be misinformed to some degree, that much is OBVIOUS. Looking at the way TUF denied Bossy's wagon and the way BV denied Bossy possibly being cult leader (completely ignoring the very GOOD reasoning I've been putting out for Bossy being cult leader) is, imo, extremely hard indicative of likely scum.
That I misread seventh means that Mafia may have been acting the exact opposite of what I expected them to do: namely pretending to be misinformed instead of acting informed, particularly in this case on Bossy.

If not, then Dalt, TN05, and ER are some very possible mafia, but I don't want to split the mafia faction into one behavioral category. THey are, ultimately, individuals. While they can collaborate, they MAY have split off and acted differently from each other. It's really hard to tell.

TN05, justify your role-character. Stupid janitor.. goddamnit.
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Beginner
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3/8/2015 5:49:34 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Solon and Medic are the only people I think are town, In the case of Solon, I'd like to say with certainty that I know he is town. In the case of medic, I fully believe he is what he claims to be and that it is town-aligned.
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Beginner
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3/8/2015 5:54:19 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ford falls in the BV-TUF category.
I'm not liking the way BV-TUF refrained from voting at all last DP.

The only people on the Seventh wagon I do not trust at this point in time is Dalt and Endark.. especially endark. Dalt might be a passing fancy. I'm not sure.
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bsh1
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3/8/2015 5:57:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
VOTE COUNT

Ford (1/5) - Beginner
TN05 (1/5) - Solon
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Beginner
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3/8/2015 6:01:38 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'm just confusing myself at this point.. so many theories and possibilities.. Someone (preferably solon/medic) help me sort out my ideas (post #13) and maybe give me something definite.
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Beginner
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3/8/2015 6:40:40 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Based on wikihow (http://www.wikihow.com...)
The ratio of mafia-to-town is 1:3 rounded down. I counted a total of 21 players in our initial setup. That means that there, wait, taking cult into account, we shouldn't have had 7 mafia to start with. I'd say we had 6 if I'm pessimistic, so there COULD BE four mafia members alive, meaning that the ratio could be 4:5 among living players. I'm really unsure on how many mafia players should be in a game with cultists alive, but I'm really hoping bsh deducted one extra mafia member for cult, meaning we could be 3:6 instead of 4:5.

So we're either at LYLO if pessimistic and have a free ML if not. We need to tread carefully and lynch who we are sure is mafia.
With that said, I haven't really narrowed down on my theories yet, but looking at the DP2 wagon, it's really clear that Danielle, Dalt and TUF aside, everyone else on the Yama wagon are confirmed town. That's 7/10 who we know are town that were on Yama's wagon. I don't think mafia, with at most 6 members, 5, considering yama doesn't count, would split 3/5 of their votes on the right wagon unless they were making a MASSIVE MASSIVE bus. As we can see, there was some traction on the dalt wagon, and Raisor is, in fact one of those on that wagon. Ok so, I think, if Dalt is town, we can imagine that mafia didn't have many reservations for placing true-mislynch votes early on.
Medic Solon and Bossy were on the Dalt wagon, and so were BV, Yama and Ford.
Bossy was cultist and cultists are obviously more antimafia than anti-town (town recruitable, mafia not recruitable, so Bossy was plain wrong. Medic and Solon were also plain wrong, but Solon is confirmed via Endark's role, and medic's coroner role and character makes sense (and coroner is obviously town).

Bsh, did you give mafia fake claims

I don't believe that not a single mafia was on the Dalt wagon. Based on behavior, stances taken in various motions in proceeding day phases, and my theoretical model of mafia's behavior, I think that of the players in the Dalt wagon, it is exceedingly likely that BV and Ford are mafia.
As for the raisor wagon, the evidence of him being mafia was nigh insurmountable in addition to raisor's claiming mafia personally, so it's no brainer there to vote on raisor (free town cred), so this wagon is harder to analyze based on votes alone (more on behavior surrounding the vote).
But TUF's opportunistic 10th vote for the 10/9 lynch is noteworthy here.
Ford was on this wagon.
BV did not vote.
Ford and BV were again on the HPG mislynch wagon (although BV gave indications of scumreading HPG early on).

THat wagon consisted in majority of town and a cult (so bossy was wrong again).

And.. medic and solon.........well they're town.

I think it's possible that mafia has simply been refraining from voting in general. That would put TUF, TN05 and Endark (Danielle) on the forefront. But again, mafia is a team of individuals, so it's possible SOME scum played without voting and SOME scum played with voting. Of those who ARE voting, I'd say BV and Ford are MAFIA. And those who aren't voting as much I'd say TUF, TN05 and Endark. Of course, not all five of these guys are mafia, but I'd say if we can narrow down from this list, we can probably catch mafia.

Back to theory on Dalt: I still think it's very possible that mafia crafted the roadmap fake claim in the scum chat and then two mafia members accidentally cc'd each other in light of not ascertaining who to assume ownership of the claim. But Dalt's behavior.. it's so beautiful T^T

I'll refrain from Endark for now.
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Beginner
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3/8/2015 6:44:38 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
BV, TUF and TN05 need to give role claims and justifications if they haven't. If they have, they need to provide more detail to them.
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SolonKR
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3/8/2015 6:48:29 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 5:48:16 PM, Beginner wrote:
At 3/8/2015 4:52:20 PM, SolonKR wrote:

-_-
His role is confirmed popular. I don't see why you keep going after him.
I don't get how his being popular means his being town. Sucking up to judges doesn't sound like a role that would be town-oriented. In fact, I was popular mafia in a recent game in G+ hangouts, so I don't believe Ford is town-confirmed to the least. Roles aside, Ford's behavior has been incredibly anti-town to say the least. That he was on the other side of the Yama wagon (but Dalt might be mafia too, so this could be null).

Dalt is almost certainly vanilla or goon. I tracked him and he visited no one NP1. Endark's report is believable to me.
I did not realize his claim was sucking up to judges. That changes things, because it definitely doesn't sound like a town character, as you say. I think being on the wrong side of the Yama wagon is null, because it was a tough call.

I've been reading some of my past games on mafiascum, and its made me very cynical about players like Dalt who can appear town in every individual post but still ultimately be scum. I'm very happy that people supported me on the seventh lynch (by extension gratitude extends to Dalt) and very unhappy that seventh flipped town. I pretty sure that some of those who aided me last DP on seventh were scum.
I wouldn't be surprised if Dalt were mafia at this point in the game..

See above.

The ones who I think are most likely mafia out of that wagon are E.R. and TN05. The reasoning E.R.'s proposed for mafia's not NKing him (potential GF) is one fo the flimsiest and conditional excuses I've ever heard. Also, if our miller claim, TN05, isn't really miller, then what we have to work with is an increased likelihood that a cop either doesn't exist or is one of our janitored deaths.

What I don't get is why Endark would come up with all innocents and failures. We know the failure was truthful, and the innocents would more suggest a flavored cop, which eliminates the possibility for framing a townie later. In any case, I think we should go after TN05 first.

I'm wary of TUF and BV. BV's pretty much been wrong on everything and denying wagons here and there. Let's look at the fact that scum almost certainly knew bossy was cult leader and yet did not say anything about it for 5 consecutive days. Mafia is pretending to be misinformed to some degree, that much is OBVIOUS. Looking at the way TUF denied Bossy's wagon and the way BV denied Bossy possibly being cult leader (completely ignoring the very GOOD reasoning I've been putting out for Bossy being cult leader) is, imo, extremely hard indicative of likely scum.

According to my tracking, he's vanilla. Mafia would have to have several goons, but we know there's a janitor and (probably) GF, in addition to the deceased members. It doesn't add up to me.

That I misread seventh means that Mafia may have been acting the exact opposite of what I expected them to do: namely pretending to be misinformed instead of acting informed, particularly in this case on Bossy.

TUF claimed a believable character pretty early for scum.

If not, then Dalt, TN05, and ER are some very possible mafia, but I don't want to split the mafia faction into one behavioral category. THey are, ultimately, individuals. While they can collaborate, they MAY have split off and acted differently from each other. It's really hard to tell.

One step at a time; there's no need to rush.

TN05, justify your role-character. Stupid janitor.. goddamnit.
SO to Bailey, the love of my life <3
Beginner
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3/8/2015 6:53:19 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Actually with a janitor and a theme like this, there's no reason to give out fake claims. Nvm.
Solon, bossy's misplaced vote (as cult leader) proves that it may or may not have been a tough call on Dalt, but I already brought that up. People can be wrong, but of those who are wrong, which of those may have KNOWN that they were wrong? Which are mafia because town can be wrong all the time, but bad lynchwagons inevitably harbor some mafia. Narrowing down from that gives good information. So no it's not null.
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Beginner
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3/8/2015 6:57:00 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I can understand why the players here have been left alive. Many of us have either been playing badly or are seen by mafia to be potential scumreads to some degree.
Ok, TN05 is a really really good lynch imo. I was talking to him as recently as this morning. He's intentionally not speaking in the DP. Same reasons I put up for Danielle except Danielle may have been legitimately refusing to play (so maybe endark is town and mafia expected her to be mislynched? re: ford's vote on Danielle).

If I can strike Endark and TUF off the scum list we have:
BV, Ford and TN05.

This is starting to look better.

VTL TN05
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medic0506
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3/8/2015 6:58:34 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 6:01:38 PM, Beginner wrote:
I'm just confusing myself at this point.. so many theories and possibilities.. Someone (preferably solon/medic) help me sort out my ideas (post #13) and maybe give me something definite.

The only way Dalt is scum is if they decided to sacrifice one of their own, early in the game, for no apparent reason. He was CC'd by Yama who flipped scum. While that bussing scenario is not totally impossible, it is highly unlikely that early in the game. That means that with Raisor on that scumteam, they planned that gambit with the potential for Yama to be alive late in the game. I just don't see it, I think he and Solon are town, though I strongly disagree with Solon's earlier post. Everyone else is up for grabs.

I say we just chillax until Endark posts his results, then we can get serious.
Beginner
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3/8/2015 6:59:46 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ok I admit that i'm LITERALLY using medic's role and character to give thumbs up on his alignment, but really considering that mafia is intentionally killing off our best and leaving alive our worst, we need to give some grounds for certain behavioral cues. I'd say medic is town, but I could be horrendously and blatantly wrong.

Confusing ourselves isn't going to make this any easier.

EVeryone needs to full claim and justify at this point in the game.
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Beginner
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3/8/2015 7:02:33 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 6:58:34 PM, medic0506 wrote:
I don't think we can do that because we don't even know if endark (danielle) is actually cop. I can certainly see a Danielle motive for not playing this game, but that is no confirmation for Endark. Add to the fact that the cop HAS NOT BEEN TARGETED for this many nights in a row. That's either bad scum-strategy (or wifom good scum strategy in getting the slot mislynched), or Endark/Dani is literally mafia.
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SolonKR
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3/8/2015 7:04:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 6:58:34 PM, medic0506 wrote:
I say we just chillax until Endark posts his results, then we can get serious.

He did, last DP.

"So...screw Danielle again, cause her night actions are terrible.

NP1 - investigated Skeps. Innocent.
NP 2 - investigated Beginner. Innocent.
NP 3 - investigated Bossy. Failed.
NP 4 - investigated Rocket. Innocent.
NP 5 - investigated Daltonian. Innocent.
NP 6 - forfeited

I don't know why mafia haven't killed me yet. My guess is that there's still a godfather around.

I still town-read Beginner and Solon, and there's a healthy scum pile in TUF, 7th, and TN05. I'm perfectly happy lynching any of them."

I pasted the last two sentences as well because they're relevant to today.
SO to Bailey, the love of my life <3
SolonKR
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3/8/2015 7:04:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/8/2015 7:04:09 PM, SolonKR wrote:
At 3/8/2015 6:58:34 PM, medic0506 wrote:
I say we just chillax until Endark posts his results, then we can get serious.

He did, last DP.

Oh, wait, I'm stupid. You meant today.
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Beginner
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3/8/2015 7:08:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ford is definitely mafia. Considering that this might be LYLO, I'm more comfortable lynching Ford than TN05 (who might possibly actually be miller).

Unvote VTL Ford
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