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SURPRISE MAFIA: Day Phase Nine

bsh1
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3/11/2015 5:10:58 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
LYNCHED LAST DP

TN05 - You are SHIFTING THE GOALPOSTS. When you've made a really bad argument, sometimes the best way to clean up the mess is to morph it into something else entirely. Because that is your MO, you are the 4-shot JANITOR. Each night you may select a player. If they die that NP, their character, justification, role, and affiliation will be hidden from view in all subsequent DPs. You win with the mafia. Mafia wins when it is impossible for any other faction to win.

[Mod Note: Mafia may, during DP1, choose to exchange one janitor shot for a safe, fake character claim.]

DIED IN THE NIGHT

Solon - You are a CREDIBLE SOURCE. All good empirical claims should be traced back to you, and anyone who wants to be good at this event should totally waste their lives in pursuit of your illusory self. You are VANILLA. You have no role. You win with the Town. Town wins when it has eliminated all other factions.

GRAVEYARD

Khaos - Powerful Rhetoric, Alarmist - Town
Zaradi - Enunciation, Innocent Child - Town
Yama - Dropped Arguments, JOAT - Mafia
Skep (Kiri) - ??? , ??? - ???
Raisor - Slapdash Presentation, Ninja - Mafia
XLAV - ??? , ??? - ???
Endark - Permutation, Tracker - Town
HPG - Impact Turn, Lobbyist - Town
Bossy - Judge, Cult Leader - Cult
Khaos (2) - Warrant, Alarmist - Town
7th - Civility, Vanilla - Town
Korashk (Rocket/FT/Daytona) - Solid Link Story, Rolestopper - Town
TN05 (Harder/Wylted) - Shifting Goalposts, Janitor - Mafia
Solon - Credible Source, Vanilla - Town

LIVING PLAYERS

TUF
Ford
Medic
Dalt
Blackvoid
Endark (Danielle)
Beginner

With 7 players remaining, it takes 4 votes to lynch.
The DP will end at 5:00pm, DDO time, on 3/13/15.
The DP is back to being 48 hours.


Good luck!
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Beginner
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3/11/2015 5:23:11 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ford, basically a Janitor without coroner is OP is what you're saying. Yet that happens all the time.
Such scrub-logic.
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BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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3/11/2015 5:24:42 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Based on TN's flip, I retract the FOS on Beginner.

From TN's mod note, and the fact that they only got 3 janitor shots out of possible 4, they got a free character claim on DP1. Its possible that one of the people who claimed that DP is scum. I know Yama, Raisor, and Wylted didn't claim that phase, so its plausible that the one who did is still alive. I'll take a look and see who did what that DP.
BlackVoid
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3/11/2015 5:26:32 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ford has to be town now. As mafia, he could have waited to see if someone else would switch their vote to Beginner in the last 4 hours. It was possible. If Beginner got ML'd, I would have been ML'd next immediately after. Him passing up that opportunity and ending the DP himself seems townish.
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,138
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3/11/2015 5:27:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 5:23:11 PM, Beginner wrote:
Ford, basically a Janitor without coroner is OP is what you're saying. Yet that happens all the time.
Such scrub-logic.

omfg you developmentally challenged mound of weasel dung there is literally no way to explain the fact that zaradi's role was revealed unless there's a town coroner. Medic claimed coroner. Nobody counterclaimed him. This means Medic must be the coroner, doofus
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,138
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3/11/2015 5:36:31 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Is there an up to date claims list? Also, where in the name of Merlin's saggy ballsack is TUF?? I don't think I've seen him post this century
Beginner
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3/11/2015 5:40:10 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 5:27:09 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
At 3/11/2015 5:23:11 PM, Beginner wrote:
Ford, basically a Janitor without coroner is OP is what you're saying. Yet that happens all the time.
Such scrub-logic.

omfg you developmentally challenged mound of weasel dung there is literally no way to explain the fact that zaradi's role was revealed unless there's a town coroner. Medic claimed coroner. Nobody counterclaimed him. This means Medic must be the coroner, doofus

That's why the theory is 3 shot janitor 1 shot coroner, but now that janitor is flipped, the theory is put to rest. Doofus.

Throw away role-analysis for a second and really scrutinize medic. He's the ultimate sheeple and his votes have been very consistently wrong except for the raisor lynch.
Considering that it generally is in mafia's best interests to vote in favor of mafia when possible, medic's actual and voting behavior is a giant neon sign with the word 'SCUM' plastered on to his face.
If the coroner was janitored the night he/she used his role, then it's entirely possible that medic is mafia. I would take role-based confirmation of alignment with a lot of trepidation here.
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BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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3/11/2015 5:42:28 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Eh, the character thing probably isn't that big a deal after all. The mafia may have asked for one after Beginner started pushing the mass claim, but since it never gained traction, they may not have needed it.

For what its worth, the people who character claimed DP1 were Beginner, TUF, me, Khaos, Medic. Medic's the only one we don't have a paraphrase from, so he should give that.

If we assume that Ford and Beginner are town from their pushes on TN, then that leaves me, Medic, TUF, Dalt, Endark.

On DP1, TUF said that his role had a poor justification. When the mafia give soft-claims like that on DP1, the purpose is to get towncred. However, the mafia in this game could have gotten a free character claim whenever they wanted. So, the best way to get towncred for soft-claiming would have been to use that free character. That would be much more reliable than making up parts of your role imo. So him soft-claiming his role even before he gave his character seems somewhat town.

TUF also defended Bossy. Although I was apparently wrong that the people who would push his death heavily were likely scum, it still makes sense that they wouldn't defend him if they knew what he was.

So I narrow it to: me, Endark, Medic, Dalt.
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,138
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3/11/2015 5:45:38 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 5:40:10 PM, Beginner wrote:
At 3/11/2015 5:27:09 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
At 3/11/2015 5:23:11 PM, Beginner wrote:
Ford, basically a Janitor without coroner is OP is what you're saying. Yet that happens all the time.
Such scrub-logic.

omfg you developmentally challenged mound of weasel dung there is literally no way to explain the fact that zaradi's role was revealed unless there's a town coroner. Medic claimed coroner. Nobody counterclaimed him. This means Medic must be the coroner, doofus

That's why the theory is 3 shot janitor 1 shot coroner, but now that janitor is flipped, the theory is put to rest. Doofus.
What??? The janitor flipped 3-4 shot, so how does that put to the rest the idea of medic being 1 shot coroner? It doesn't at all.
Throw away role-analysis for a second and really scrutinize medic. He's the ultimate sheeple and his votes have been very consistently wrong except for the raisor lynch.
Considering that it generally is in mafia's best interests to vote in favor of mafia when possible, medic's actual and voting behavior is a giant neon sign with the word 'SCUM' plastered on to his face.
If the coroner was janitored the night he/she used his role, then it's entirely possible that medic is mafia. I would take role-based confirmation of alignment with a lot of trepidation here.

Oh my god I already addressed why this is implausible: if skep was the coroner, then Raisor's doc claim is ridiculously reckless. Raisor claimed doc at a time when there was only one janitored death, and skep can't have been both coroner and doctor. If he was coroner, then how did Raisor know he wouldn't be fake claimed as doctor? So this proves skep must have been the doctor, which means he can't have been the coroner, which means medic has to be.
Beginner
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3/11/2015 5:47:55 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 5:45:38 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
What??? The janitor flipped 3-4 shot, so how does that put to the rest the idea of medic being 1 shot coroner? It doesn't at all.
The theory was that medic was the janitor AND coroner.
Never mind. I'm putting a stop to this convo right here.

Medic's claiming D1 changes everything..
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Beginner
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3/11/2015 5:50:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
So town would be, if I'm generous:
Medic
Ford
BV
Me

That leaves:
Dalt
E.R.
TUF

I am giving Ford a LOT of leeway for that hammer, but a bus ploy, unlikely thought it is, is possible.
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ford_prefect
Posts: 4,138
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3/11/2015 5:50:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 5:47:55 PM, Beginner wrote:
At 3/11/2015 5:45:38 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
What??? The janitor flipped 3-4 shot, so how does that put to the rest the idea of medic being 1 shot coroner? It doesn't at all.
The theory was that medic was the janitor AND coroner.
Never mind. I'm putting a stop to this convo right here.
Medic's claiming D1 changes everything..

Ok as long as we both agree that Medic is basically mod confirmed town coroner
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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3/11/2015 5:50:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Dalt should probably be added to the town pile too. We know that the CC between him and Yama was an accident, but I don't think its likely that this accident happened between 2 people messing up in the mafia PM. If Yama accidentally CC'd his scumbuddy, the logical response would be for Dalt to be extremely aggressive in FOS'd Yama in order to distance themselves even further if Dalt got lynched and flipped scum. But thats not what happened - he was just kind of "eh, whatever, I barely even care". I think a scum would be a bit more freaked out if their buddy CC'd them by accident.

Me, Medic, Endark.

Beginner, I'm gonna lol if you were right about Danielle this whole time.
Beginner
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3/11/2015 5:50:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 5:50:09 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
Ok as long as we both agree that Medic is basically mod confirmed town coroner
At this point.. we do.
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BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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3/11/2015 5:53:44 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ford, I don't agree with your Doc analysis, unless the meta you've been playing in is different from the one I'm used to.

Back when I played, Doctor was not a guaranteed role, and it wasn't even common by the last few games I was in. Is the meta the same now, or is Doctor in virtually every game? If its not an extremely common role, Raisor could have just thrown it out there hoping it stuck and got people to second-guess him.

Even barring that, its possible Xlav is the Doc and didn't feel the need to CC because there was plenty of stuff against Raisor already.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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3/11/2015 6:01:33 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Actually, Endark opened last DP with a VTL on TN, said he was the best lynch, refused to lynch Beginner, and never wavered on any of that. So he's actually one of the stronger town reads.
ford_prefect
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3/11/2015 6:08:16 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 5:53:44 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
Ford, I don't agree with your Doc analysis, unless the meta you've been playing in is different from the one I'm used to.

Back when I played, Doctor was not a guaranteed role, and it wasn't even common by the last few games I was in. Is the meta the same now, or is Doctor in virtually every game? If its not an extremely common role, Raisor could have just thrown it out there hoping it stuck and got people to second-guess him.

Even barring that, its possible Xlav is the Doc and didn't feel the need to CC because there was plenty of stuff against Raisor already.

Doctor is in almost every game nowadays.
ford_prefect
Posts: 4,138
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3/11/2015 6:11:22 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
As I see it

Certain town: Medic, Ford
Probable town: Dalt
Could be town or scum: Blackvoid, Endark, Beginner
Likely scum: TUF

Does Endark have an innocent on anyone other than Beginner right now?
Beginner
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3/11/2015 6:14:26 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 5:50:17 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
Dalt should probably be added to the town pile too. We know that the CC between him and Yama was an accident, but I don't think its likely that this accident happened between 2 people messing up in the mafia PM. If Yama accidentally CC'd his scumbuddy, the logical response would be for Dalt to be extremely aggressive in FOS'd Yama in order to distance themselves even further if Dalt got lynched and flipped scum. But thats not what happened - he was just kind of "eh, whatever, I barely even care". I think a scum would be a bit more freaked out if their buddy CC'd them by accident.

I still don't know about TUF being BP. His activity is nearly non-existent to say the least. Raisor's claim, if Yama did in fact rolecop bossy, basically tells bossy that he's been rolecopped (unless bsh gave mafia the cult wincon). Logically, bossy can come to the conclusion that mafia will try to kill him right before he wins, saving his commuting for the NP5. Meaning TUF did not get shot. Meaning TUF might be an opportunistic liar.
I'm looking back to the Day that Danielle claimed to have checked Bossy (to no results), and, based on bossy's response, it looks as if bossy did in fact commute that night. This actually lends a little bit of credibility in favor of Danielle. There was also indication that bossy commuted the night before (as he promised since he specifically asked to be checked via night actions).
But then, bossy's contradicting TUF when TUF outed as BP, claiming himself to have possibly been the one shot as a commuter, means that of the three nights in which he claimed to have commuted, one of them is a lie. If the DP6-commute claim was false, then Danielle might really have checked bossy.
If bossy didn't really commute NP3, Danielle's failed check would be a lie.
If Bossy's NP2 commute is a lie, then his asking to be Night-Actioned that NP and not following through with the commute is a bold move.

But if Danielle was scum and knew that bossy was CL, she could have faked a fail-check and bossy wouldn't know any better. He might simply assume that Danielle was roleblocked. Korashk might have rolestopped Danielle. Danielle might have been some mafia role who got role-stopped, thus her claim on fail-check essentially gives her credibility in its consistency with the rolestop.
There might be a GF/Lawyer
I feel like I'm spinning in circles... .--.

I think figuring out which night bossy might have lied about commuting would be good info to have. Psychology: I don't think bossy would waste both commutes 2 nights in a row. I surmise that he got it in his head that consecutive use, particularly NP3, the NP after the NP he expected to be examined, would be a waste.
Based on the premise that bossy didn't commute NP3 (meaning any check should have gone through with a guilty), I think it's very likely that Danielle was either
1) rolestopped by korashk (which would be evident if Korashk had a prevailing TR on Danielle since DP3, I'll go check later) and fake claiming to be consistent
2) Not role-stopped by korashk but didn't check bossy anyway (since not really cop).
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Beginner
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3/11/2015 6:15:57 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 6:11:22 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
NP1 - investigated Skeps. Innocent.
NP 2 - investigated Beginner. Innocent.
NP 3 - investigated Bossy. Failed.
NP 4 - investigated Rocket. Innocent.
NP 5 - investigated Daltonian. Innocent.
NP 6 - forfeited
NP 7 - TUF inno
NP 8 - pending..
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ford_prefect
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3/11/2015 6:18:42 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 6:15:57 PM, Beginner wrote:
At 3/11/2015 6:11:22 PM, ford_prefect wrote:
NP1 - investigated Skeps. Innocent.
NP 2 - investigated Beginner. Innocent.
NP 3 - investigated Bossy. Failed.
NP 4 - investigated Rocket. Innocent.
NP 5 - investigated Daltonian. Innocent.
NP 6 - forfeited
NP 7 - TUF inno
NP 8 - pending..

Thanks, that's super helpful.

Also, holy crap he has innocent results on you, TUF, and Dalt. If we buy him as town and his results as correct, that leaves scum very little wiggle room. Those are big ifs though. Probably best to wait for his result from last night
Beginner
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3/11/2015 6:20:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Based on the 3:1 ratio (rounded down), the game should've started with 5 scum:
4 mafia
1 cult leader
We've gotten the cult leader and three mafia.
There's only one mafia left.
Meaning if ER is mafia, his inno's that we have right now can't possibly be fake inno's. Taking that into consideration, Dalt and TUF might be town. This literally leaves only E.R. as mafia, but that's circular since this entire premise depends on E.R. being mafia.
The innos are however consistent (since mafia don't want to guilty own team members too much or fake guilty).
And I know this has been said a lot of times, but if E.R. were real cop, shouldn't he have been killed by now?
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BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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3/11/2015 6:29:44 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 6:14:26 PM, Beginner wrote:

I think Korashk said that both his roles were used up before he even joined the game. I'll go try and find the exact quote.

I think if there was one commute Bossy lied about, it was NP2. From cult perspective, there's no reason to waste it that early because given the high number of players, the chances of being NK'd are low. You're right though that itd be a bold move to ask people to target him.

I buy that Bossy would commute NP3 because Danielle, you, and Raisor all accused him of being CL that day.

So either the NP2 or 5 were lies. Meh.

If we're buying that either Skep or Xlav was Doc, then it may not be plausible for mafia to have to deal with that, a BP, and a cult commuter. So...maybe its TUF after all.
BlackVoid
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3/11/2015 6:31:12 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 6:20:27 PM, Beginner wrote:
Based on the 3:1 ratio (rounded down), the game should've started with 5 scum:
4 mafia
1 cult leader
We've gotten the cult leader and three mafia.
There's only one mafia left.
Meaning if ER is mafia, his inno's that we have right now can't possibly be fake inno's. Taking that into consideration, Dalt and TUF might be town. This literally leaves only E.R. as mafia, but that's circular since this entire premise depends on E.R. being mafia.
The innos are however consistent (since mafia don't want to guilty own team members too much or fake guilty).
And I know this has been said a lot of times, but if E.R. were real cop, shouldn't he have been killed by now?

Problem is, we haven't found the GF. Endark really should be town from his behavior last DP. My theory about him being alive because the only 2 scum alive at the time were the GF and claimed miller is looking pretty good.
Daltonian
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3/11/2015 6:38:43 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Sorry.. this has been a bad game for me. I should have gone with my instinct at the start of the DP to lynch TN05. That being said, what I said about Beginner was still true - he needs to calm down with his reads. He was acting scummy at the end of DP8, perhaps out of annoyance or spite, enough to trigger my paranoia.

I've actually only been nightkilled in a mafia game once, and that's because I have bad reads as town and am easily manipulated.. which leads me to think that, with the odd NK choices, that mafia are selecting who they're killing based on behaviour and reads.

No offense to anyone, but I think myself, Beginner, Medic, and Solon (who is obviously dead now) are or were people someone would dismiss killing even if town read because of a perceived lack of skill.

Probable town (in order): Daltonian, Beginner, Medic, Ford
Lynch pile: BV, Endark, TUF

I'm pretty much willing to lynch any of the bottom three. I'd vote ER, but it's 4 vote lynch and I'd like his results first.
F _ C K
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medic0506
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3/11/2015 7:49:10 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/11/2015 5:21:08 PM, Beginner wrote:
Medic, are you town?

Yes, I'm the town 1-shot coroner and I was the one who revealed Zaradi's info. I am still town and was never recruited by cult. That should cover everything.