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Mafia Meta analysis

Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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3/14/2015 1:08:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I have long spoken against basing all reads off meta analysis. However, that is not because Meta analysis is inaccurate, in fact, when done right, it is the most accurate reading that can possibly be done. However, it is the hardest to accurately determine, unless players are just poor meta players (by "poor meta player" I mean someone that is not able to play even similar when town and mafia, to make it easy to determine). You have to play with someone a significant number of times, with them as both town and mafia, to understand how they play as each. This requires an immense amount of experience to get to this point.

So, what are some players' meta styles that you have observed? Along with the games that showcase that style? Of course, remember that you cannot use current games. Personally, I'd like to know what my meta is so I can improve it.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,759
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3/14/2015 3:12:07 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I think meta's useful for a couple things. First off, if someone does something as town, then it's not scummy when they do it as scum. That's where I think meta is most useful. Second, meta helps evaluate competency. If someone's good at faking town-tells, then clearing them based on town-tells is harder, because they're good at dropping fake ones. That's when you have to look beyond town-tells, and beyond obvious intent, to how that person's affected the game. If they're very good as town, but they've mislynched 5 times in a row, and all their reads are wrong, hold them to the standard they've set as town. That doesn't mean 1 mislynch means they're scum (everyone makes mistakes), but hold them to hitting at least 1 scum in their lynches. That's the stuff that I think meta helps with.

Where I think meta is bullsh!t is saying someone's scum because they do X as scum. The problem there is that there's no evidence they wouldn't do X as town. For example, people often will say "FT is scum because he's inactive, and as scum he's inactive." But what they don't realize is that sometimes I'm inactive as town. I'm not active/inactive based on alignment but based on how busy I am. Any meta argument that takes the form of "X is scum because he did Y here, and he did Y as scum in a previous game" isn't going to consistently find you scum.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,759
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3/14/2015 3:18:35 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Ore, regarding your meta, I think you show much more restraint emotionally as scum. You'll go through the motions, of course, but there's not the same level of emotion in relation to your positions and actions. Dunno if that helps, but in general, I feel like you show more emotions when pushing a lynch as town -- whether it's excitement, hesitation, etc.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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3/14/2015 3:44:02 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 3:18:35 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Ore, regarding your meta, I think you show much more restraint emotionally as scum. You'll go through the motions, of course, but there's not the same level of emotion in relation to your positions and actions. Dunno if that helps, but in general, I feel like you show more emotions when pushing a lynch as town -- whether it's excitement, hesitation, etc.

Thank you, I will work on that. Though I try to keep emotion out of it in general and have a hard time seeing how emotion gets translated into text. I think it also doesn't help that of the last 8 or so games, I've been scum more often than not.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,759
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3/14/2015 3:51:25 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 3:44:02 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:18:35 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Ore, regarding your meta, I think you show much more restraint emotionally as scum. You'll go through the motions, of course, but there's not the same level of emotion in relation to your positions and actions. Dunno if that helps, but in general, I feel like you show more emotions when pushing a lynch as town -- whether it's excitement, hesitation, etc.

Thank you, I will work on that. Though I try to keep emotion out of it in general and have a hard time seeing how emotion gets translated into text. I think it also doesn't help that of the last 8 or so games, I've been scum more often than not.

That sucks. I hate being scum. I didn't realize you're scum that often. I only remember 2 of your scum games, the recent one where F-16 caught you on D1 and another one where I caught you on D1.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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3/14/2015 8:33:47 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 3:51:25 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:44:02 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:18:35 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Ore, regarding your meta, I think you show much more restraint emotionally as scum. You'll go through the motions, of course, but there's not the same level of emotion in relation to your positions and actions. Dunno if that helps, but in general, I feel like you show more emotions when pushing a lynch as town -- whether it's excitement, hesitation, etc.

Thank you, I will work on that. Though I try to keep emotion out of it in general and have a hard time seeing how emotion gets translated into text. I think it also doesn't help that of the last 8 or so games, I've been scum more often than not.

That sucks. I hate being scum. I didn't realize you're scum that often. I only remember 2 of your scum games, the recent one where F-16 caught you on D1 and another one where I caught you on D1.

Beginner series 34.x was scum, TP, town. Then 35.x was scum, town, scum (well, town killed by scum np1 and replaced in for scum), town. Then the game theory was town, killed np1 and replaced in for scum.

Which games were you thinking of? I haven't played for awhile before I got back in.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
YamaVonKarma
Posts: 7,570
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3/14/2015 8:36:12 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 8:33:47 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:51:25 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:44:02 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:18:35 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Ore, regarding your meta, I think you show much more restraint emotionally as scum. You'll go through the motions, of course, but there's not the same level of emotion in relation to your positions and actions. Dunno if that helps, but in general, I feel like you show more emotions when pushing a lynch as town -- whether it's excitement, hesitation, etc.

Thank you, I will work on that. Though I try to keep emotion out of it in general and have a hard time seeing how emotion gets translated into text. I think it also doesn't help that of the last 8 or so games, I've been scum more often than not.

That sucks. I hate being scum. I didn't realize you're scum that often. I only remember 2 of your scum games, the recent one where F-16 caught you on D1 and another one where I caught you on D1.

Beginner series 34.x was scum, TP, town. Then 35.x was scum, town, scum (well, town killed by scum np1 and replaced in for scum), town. Then the game theory was town, killed np1 and replaced in for scum.

Which games were you thinking of? I haven't played for awhile before I got back in.
I find it funny I've led most of your recent deaths at the hands of town.
Not bad for a long day's work.
People who I've called as mafia DP1:
TUF, and YYW
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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3/14/2015 9:00:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 8:36:12 PM, YamaVonKarma wrote:
At 3/14/2015 8:33:47 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:51:25 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:44:02 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:18:35 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Ore, regarding your meta, I think you show much more restraint emotionally as scum. You'll go through the motions, of course, but there's not the same level of emotion in relation to your positions and actions. Dunno if that helps, but in general, I feel like you show more emotions when pushing a lynch as town -- whether it's excitement, hesitation, etc.

Thank you, I will work on that. Though I try to keep emotion out of it in general and have a hard time seeing how emotion gets translated into text. I think it also doesn't help that of the last 8 or so games, I've been scum more often than not.

That sucks. I hate being scum. I didn't realize you're scum that often. I only remember 2 of your scum games, the recent one where F-16 caught you on D1 and another one where I caught you on D1.

Beginner series 34.x was scum, TP, town. Then 35.x was scum, town, scum (well, town killed by scum np1 and replaced in for scum), town. Then the game theory was town, killed np1 and replaced in for scum.

Which games were you thinking of? I haven't played for awhile before I got back in.
I find it funny I've led most of your recent deaths at the hands of town.
Not bad for a long day's work.

When was the last time I was lynched by the town?

In game theory (my most resent game), I was killed by NP1 (then subbed into mafia) and NP2 (can't speculate on how though while game is running).

35.4 - killed NP1 (frustratingly, because there was the biggest wagon on me with 2 votes when the DP expired so there was no reason for the mafia to think townies town read me)
35.3 - survived to the end (correction, this game I did not sub into mafia, I was mafia the entire time).
35.2 - lynched DP2 as town (which prompted the thread on LAL)
35.1 - survived to the end (as mafia).
34.3 - killed NP2 (as 3rd party)
34.2 - killed NP1 (as town)
34.1 - lynched DP4 (as mafia, my scum mate suicide bombed the only non-confirmed town and left me holding the bag. Pissed Rev off because I wouldn't continue trying to fight, lol).

So of the last 8 games (9 roles if you count the 1 sub ins after first death), I've been lynched 2 times, night killed 5 times, and survived to the end 2 times. And one of the lynches, you were my dead scum mate, lol.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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3/15/2015 3:29:47 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 2:01:44 AM, XLAV wrote:
I used to have a list of metas from everyone, lol. But I had to reformat my computer. :(

I'm actually starting one of these.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,280
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3/15/2015 10:45:47 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 3:51:25 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:44:02 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 3/14/2015 3:18:35 PM, FourTrouble wrote:
Ore, regarding your meta, I think you show much more restraint emotionally as scum. You'll go through the motions, of course, but there's not the same level of emotion in relation to your positions and actions. Dunno if that helps, but in general, I feel like you show more emotions when pushing a lynch as town -- whether it's excitement, hesitation, etc.

Thank you, I will work on that. Though I try to keep emotion out of it in general and have a hard time seeing how emotion gets translated into text. I think it also doesn't help that of the last 8 or so games, I've been scum more often than not.

That sucks. I hate being scum. I didn't realize you're scum that often. I only remember 2 of your scum games, the recent one where F-16 caught you on D1 and another one where I caught you on D1.

What are my scum tells? You're one of the few people that ALWAYS catches me. I was so mad when you vigged me in Castle in the Sky, lol.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,759
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3/15/2015 11:10:11 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 10:45:47 AM, Skepsikyma wrote:
What are my scum tells? You're one of the few people that ALWAYS catches me. I was so mad when you vigged me in Castle in the Sky, lol.

Castle in the Sky -- you spent D1 speculating about theme and setup without taking any positions that mattered. This is what we wrote about you in the game:

At 4/30/2013 12:04:14 AM, FlippantBuoyancy wrote:
Skeps spends the first 11 pages of this DP presenting a cumulative 14 posts which are supremely easy to contrive. Each of his posts is literally a new theory on how the game might or might not work. Or OP analysis. He does absolutely no scum hunting, he asks no questions related to player motivations, and he engages in no conversation of substance.

Compare your play as town in Surprise, where you hunted scum, focused on behaviors, took positions, and then did an umprompted meta dive. That meta dive was such a massive town-tell because it showed an engagement with behaviors that simply didn't square with your play as scum.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,759
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3/15/2015 11:16:13 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 8:33:47 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Which games were you thinking of? I haven't played for awhile before I got back in.

I don't even know what the games were called, but it wasn't any of the Beginner ones.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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3/15/2015 12:51:06 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 11:16:13 AM, FourTrouble wrote:
At 3/14/2015 8:33:47 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
Which games were you thinking of? I haven't played for awhile before I got back in.

I don't even know what the games were called, but it wasn't any of the Beginner ones.

Yeah, they must have been awhile ago. I haven't played with you or F-16 in years.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"