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SURPRISE MAFIA: Day Phase Ten

bsh1
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3/14/2015 10:40:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
LYNCHED LAST DP

Ford - You are JUDGE ADAPTATION. Being able to adapt to your judge--maybe even schmooze a little--can earn you huge brownie points. If I don't want spreading and you spread, you get on my bad side right off the bat, but if you adapt, then you become POPULAR. It takes 1 extra vote to lynch you. You win with the Town. Town wins when it has eliminated all other factions.

DIED IN THE NIGHT

Medic - You are DOING RESEARCH. This is an essential part of success in this activity. You have to dig up good responses if you want to succeed--you cannot leave any stone un-turned or any idea un-examined. Thus, you are the 1-shot CORONER. Once per game, you may select a player from the graveyard whose information has been redacted. You will un-redact/reveal that information, which will be made public in the OP of the next DP. You win with the Town. Town wins when it has eliminated all other factions.

GRAVEYARD

Khaos - Powerful Rhetoric, Alarmist - Town
Zaradi - Enunciation, Innocent Child - Town
Yama - Dropped Arguments, JOAT - Mafia
Skep (Kiri) - ??? , ??? - ???
Raisor - Slapdash Presentation, Ninja - Mafia
XLAV - ??? , ??? - ???
Endark - Permutation, Tracker - Town
HPG - Impact Turn, Lobbyist - Town
Bossy - Judge, Cult Leader - Cult
Khaos (2) - Warrant, Alarmist - Town
7th - Civility, Vanilla - Town
Korashk (Rocket/FT/Daytona) - Solid Link Story, Rolestopper - Town
TN05 (Harder/Wylted) - Shifting Goalposts, Janitor - Mafia
Solon - Credible Source, Vanilla - Town
Ford - Judge Adaptation, Popular - Town
Medic - Doing Research, Coroner - Town

LIVING PLAYERS

Ford (TUF)
Dalt
BlackVoid
Endark (Danielle)
Beginner

With 5 players remaining, it takes 3 votes to lynch.
The DP will end at 10:00pm, DDO time, on 3/16/15
.

Good luck!
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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3/14/2015 10:40:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
ATTENTION

Ford has replaced TUF.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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EndarkenedRationalist
Posts: 14,201
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3/14/2015 10:49:45 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Not that it'll matter to any of you, but I copped BV innocent. Which means every player alive has been copped innocent. Which means that, if there is a framer, it's combined in another role. A framer/lawyer who alternates could take the place of a GF. Frankly, it makes more sense to me that mafia would have a framer/lawyer over a GF because it counterbalances cop even more.

So obviously the remaining mafia (1 if we're lucky, 2 if not) has been copped innocent. If I'm right about an alternating framer/lawyer, then Dalt and BV are my biggest FOS. However, because of the risk of there still being two mafia, I won't vote for anyone yet. We should all discuss this to prevent a quick hammer.
BlackVoid
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3/14/2015 10:57:37 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
And yet another pro-town NK...I was still thinking between Medic and TUF but leaned more towards Medic during the NP.

So its Endark or TUF. If its Beginner, I'll be very impressed with his play last DP, but I'm not lynching him.

I guess i'd lean towards Ford2, but Beginner seemed to suspect Endark towards the end of the DP, so we should listen to that.
EndarkenedRationalist
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3/14/2015 11:09:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 10:57:37 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
And yet another pro-town NK...I was still thinking between Medic and TUF but leaned more towards Medic during the NP.

So its Endark or TUF. If its Beginner, I'll be very impressed with his play last DP, but I'm not lynching him.

I guess i'd lean towards Ford2, but Beginner seemed to suspect Endark towards the end of the DP, so we should listen to that.

This seems all over the place to me, BlackVoid. There are 5 players left. List them, 1-4 (exclude yourself) from most likely to be town to most likely to be scum.

Mine are:
1 - Beginner
2 - TUF (Ford), Dalt, and BlackVoid.

I'm no longer confident Beginner is town. He's FOS'd everyone this game. His reads shift abruptly with little reasoning behind them. But he's still higher on my town list than anyone else. TUF mainly for inactivity, I'll admit, and the inside knowledge he seemed to have on Danielle's (my) affiliation.
BlackVoid
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3/14/2015 11:13:15 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
To review:

Dalt - town. His reaction to Yama's CC makes no sense as scum-scum interaction. Also, FT and Xlav townread him hardcore.

Beginner - town. He pushed TN. And last DP, the multitude of theories and scenarios we discussed shows that he's legitimately trying to figure out the game. His overall play last DP was extremely similar to mine.

Endark - slight town. Still don't get why you'd bus your buddy, then fake a guilty to lose every ounce of credibility you gained from the bus. Danielle's cop hints are also something I'd be very impressed by if she were scum.

There's also something else I'm gonna check on what she did in a couple minutes.

TUF - admittedly, there are some posts from TUF that I think are townish too, but not as strong as the others. He's the best candidate right now.
BlackVoid
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3/14/2015 11:14:02 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 11:09:04 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
I'm no longer confident Beginner is town. He's FOS'd everyone this game. His reads shift abruptly with little reasoning behind them.

Didn't you town-read him earlier for the exact same reason?
EndarkenedRationalist
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3/14/2015 11:15:28 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 11:14:02 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 3/14/2015 11:09:04 PM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
I'm no longer confident Beginner is town. He's FOS'd everyone this game. His reads shift abruptly with little reasoning behind them.

Didn't you town-read him earlier for the exact same reason?

For the former, yes. For the latter, no. (I realize that seems contradictory, but I've played with Beginner before. He usually tunnels on someone (see Code Geass, where he tunneled on FT).
As I said, though, he's still the most likely to be town, in my book.
BlackVoid
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3/14/2015 11:17:19 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Like, it would be so much easier for scum-Endark to just investigate everyone inno and rely on the presumable existence of a GF to get him off with that. Faking a guilty would be a huge risk, especially since it was 2 DPs away from MYLO (I'm guessing). I just dont get the idea of doing what he did as maf.
Beginner
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3/14/2015 11:54:49 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Medic is the only player aside from ford who wasn't 'cop-checked'
I'd expected scum to kill BV and check medic, but they did not do that.

I want to note that E.R. never even considered the possibility of a framer-lawyer for a single second. E.R.'s motive for last DP was pretty clear: Push ford, get him lynched. Endark didn't care to scum-hunt. He didn't care whether his results were right or not despite good reason to suspect that his results might be false. If he were real cop, which I firmly doubt, his discourse should have covered more than his guilty check.

Anywho, I'm pretty set on scum being E.R.
GG.
VTL ER.
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BlackVoid
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3/15/2015 12:02:25 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 11:54:49 PM, Beginner wrote:
Medic is the only player aside from ford who wasn't 'cop-checked'
I'd expected scum to kill BV and check medic, but they did not do that.

I want to note that E.R. never even considered the possibility of a framer-lawyer for a single second. E.R.'s motive for last DP was pretty clear: Push ford, get him lynched. Endark didn't care to scum-hunt. He didn't care whether his results were right or not despite good reason to suspect that his results might be false. If he were real cop, which I firmly doubt, his discourse should have covered more than his guilty check.

Anywho, I'm pretty set on scum being E.R.
GG.
VTL ER.

Thats true, I didnt think about that. Endark never engaged us in the discussing of other possibilities, whereas everyone else did.
Beginner
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3/15/2015 12:07:47 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 12:02:25 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
Thats true, I didnt think about that. Endark never engaged us in the discussing of other possibilities, whereas everyone else did.

Neither did I. It came to me as I was reading through E.R.'s posts earlier this morning. It looked singularly odd that he never participated in our discussion.
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EndarkenedRationalist
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3/15/2015 12:12:44 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 12:02:25 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 3/14/2015 11:54:49 PM, Beginner wrote:
Medic is the only player aside from ford who wasn't 'cop-checked'
I'd expected scum to kill BV and check medic, but they did not do that.

I want to note that E.R. never even considered the possibility of a framer-lawyer for a single second. E.R.'s motive for last DP was pretty clear: Push ford, get him lynched. Endark didn't care to scum-hunt. He didn't care whether his results were right or not despite good reason to suspect that his results might be false. If he were real cop, which I firmly doubt, his discourse should have covered more than his guilty check.

Anywho, I'm pretty set on scum being E.R.
GG.
VTL ER.

Thats true, I didnt think about that. Endark never engaged us in the discussing of other possibilities, whereas everyone else did.

That's not remotely true. I wasn't particularly active, but almost every one of my posts detailed an alternate possibility.
EndarkenedRationalist
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3/15/2015 12:16:53 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 12:07:47 AM, Beginner wrote:
At 3/15/2015 12:02:25 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
Thats true, I didnt think about that. Endark never engaged us in the discussing of other possibilities, whereas everyone else did.

Neither did I. It came to me as I was reading through E.R.'s posts earlier this morning. It looked singularly odd that he never participated in our discussion.

As I told BV, plenty of my posts opened the doors to alternate possibilities. Ultimately, they didn't matter. A guilty on a popular is a risk I couldn't afford to take because it means town loses a day earlier if it was accurate. It turns out it wasn't, but I had no way of knowing that at the time. For me to assume a framer/lawyer last DP would indicate inside knowledge. I can't operate with information I don't have. It wasn't until we saw Ford's flip that framer/lawyer became a legitimate possibility.

Going after me for being relatively inactive is just stupid when TUF is sitting right there. Plus, you can see Game Theory as well. I was inactive there too. Why? Because I genuinely have other things going on.
BlackVoid
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3/15/2015 12:29:45 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 12:16:53 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
At 3/15/2015 12:07:47 AM, Beginner wrote:
At 3/15/2015 12:02:25 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
Thats true, I didnt think about that. Endark never engaged us in the discussing of other possibilities, whereas everyone else did.

Neither did I. It came to me as I was reading through E.R.'s posts earlier this morning. It looked singularly odd that he never participated in our discussion.

As I told BV, plenty of my posts opened the doors to alternate possibilities.

Name one. I just reread every single post you made last DP, and the only thing you ever said about a framer is that the idea of it was "silly" - in one post out of like, 15-20. Other than that, you said nothing. The majority of your posts were "i got guilty, lynch him".
Beginner
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3/15/2015 12:30:56 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 12:16:53 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
As I told BV, plenty of my posts opened the doors to alternate possibilities. Ultimately, they didn't matter. A guilty on a popular is a risk I couldn't afford to take because it means town loses a day earlier if it was accurate.
Alternately, announcing a guilty on popular town gives you an excuse to your having checked Ford, as if you actually had a cop-motive.
It turns out it wasn't, but I had no way of knowing that at the time. For me to assume a framer/lawyer last DP would indicate inside knowledge.
And yet both BV and I were able to converse extensively on the idea. Would you say that BV and I had inside knowledge? That's ludicrous. A framer-lawyer was definitely possible, but you never even considered it for one second. Now you're sitting here trying to excuse yourself for your misstep. Nope.
I can't operate with information I don't have.
This is how town plays.. "I can't operate on info I don't have" is a really bad excuse.
It wasn't until we saw Ford's flip that framer/lawyer became a legitimate possibility.
Framer/lawyer was always a legitimate possibility. So much so that quite a number of us have seriously considered it.

Going after me for being relatively inactive is just stupid when TUF is sitting right there.
That's not why we're going after you and you know it.
Plus, you can see Game Theory as well. I was inactive there too. Why? Because I genuinely have other things going on.

There are only two possibilities for Ford flipping inno:
You're a liar.
There's a framer/lawyer.
And now you're sitting here doing exactly what BV said you would.
"TROLOLOLOLOL THERE'S A FRAMER-LAWYER TROLOLOLOLOL."
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BlackVoid
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3/15/2015 12:31:11 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Also, there were reasons to suspect Framer even without the lynch because Ford's behavior was town as hell. My meta-comparison was one example of that.
BlackVoid
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3/15/2015 12:38:55 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'm starting to think that maybe the problem I've had in this game is over-relying on the thinking of "mafia would or wouldn't do this, so X player is town/scum". If Endark really is scum, thats gonna be my main takeaway. Focus less on that, more on overall behavior and thought process.

Beginner, I'm down. VTL Endark.
bsh1
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3/15/2015 12:44:22 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
VOTE COUNT

Endark (2/3) - Beginner, BV
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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Daltonian
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3/15/2015 9:04:13 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/14/2015 11:13:15 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
Endark - slight town. Still don't get why you'd bus your buddy, then fake a guilty to lose every ounce of credibility you gained from the bus. Danielle's cop hints are also something I'd be very impressed by if she were scum.
Why did you go from this to putting Endark at L-1?
F _ C K
All I need is "u", baby
Daltonian
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3/15/2015 9:11:16 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I am worried about BV again. I have scum read Dani for almost the entirety of the game during the time she was in it - so did ER1. Beginner, as part of his general behaviour, seems to flip from lynch to lynch a lot, but BV hopped on to the Ford lynch after pretty clearly outlying that he thought TUF was a better lynch, and Ford was town.

He just did the same thing with ER, except his position is a total 360 of what it was before Beginner hard-lined his vote for Endark.
F _ C K
All I need is "u", baby
Daltonian
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3/15/2015 9:26:55 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
If Endark is actually town, I am banking on there being only one mafia framer/lawyer left, maybe for balance reasons.

I'm going to revert to what my instinct was on Dani and Endark himself, rather than let myself become paranoid with behaviour of other players towards ER himself.

All of Dani's early posts are hyperdefensive, and go out of their way to dismiss suspicion against her, rather than actively engage in pro-town analysis. This might be something that could be associated with being a town cop, but upon rethinking, Dani is a good player. I'm not sure she would fall to that as a town PR Upon rethinking, I think it's actually possible she was begging for investigation - defensive, semi-active players whose activity consists half of posts with votes in them are perfect cop targets.

Consider this, though: FT town read Danielle. This is what really trips me up. BV's entire justification for his town read on me is that "FT liked my behaviour, so he must be town", whereas he town read Danielle even more strongly whilst he was alive. That's where my dilemma is, up until now, I've seen town incentive and rationale behind BV's thought process, but skipping over something like that worries me as possibly selectively choosing who he town reads for inconsistent reasons.
F _ C K
All I need is "u", baby
Daltonian
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3/15/2015 9:33:11 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Screw it, no one is online and probably no one will be before I have to leave.

VTL Endark

FOS BV if he flips town, or even if the game is still going.. sorry if I screwed this up.
F _ C K
All I need is "u", baby
Beginner
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3/15/2015 10:44:44 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Dalt is clearly town. Whoever is alive tomorrow, If Dalt is there with you, do not choose Dalt.
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Beginner
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3/15/2015 10:45:30 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Unless E.R. is the last maf, then GJ everyone, this has been a great game. XD
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Beginner
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3/15/2015 10:58:10 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 9:26:55 AM, Daltonian wrote:
I've been pretty paranoid about BV too, but DP9 really showed him to be figuring out the game. BV gives me warm fuzzy feelings. If he isn't town, I'd be surprised and kind of sad. I really think he's town. If Endark isn't the last scum, and you end up with BV tomorrow, don't lynch him.

I'm a bit paranoid about your constantly telling us that you're going to be inactive and heading out and whatnot.. I really do want to believe you, but it sounds more like an excuse for inactivity.
However, your recent posts seem to show that you're trying to figure out the game too, as do a number of your other posts.

I don't want to spread too much bias on anyone's alignment, but I think that if E.R. isn't last mafia, then it's definitely Ford(2), and that's who I think will win us the game. If not, this last mafioso has played a genuinely great game.
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BlackVoid
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3/15/2015 11:15:44 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 3/15/2015 9:26:55 AM, Daltonian wrote:

I'll respond to this next DP, if there is one. No use writing a defense if the game is over.