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Nightless Mafia DP2

FourTrouble
Posts: 12,777
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5/14/2015 10:13:30 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
== Dead ==

debatability was town. Vanilla.

YYW was mafia. Marksman. Before the game starts, choose a mark. If your mark is lynched, you'll acquire a kill during the next DP. When your mark is lynched, you must choose a new mark.

== Alive ==

1. Ore
2. Xlav
3. BlackVoid
4. Saph
5. drafter
6. Skep
7. Seventh
8. Bullish
9. Yraelz
10. Medic
11. F-16

With 11 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch. The DP ends 72 hours from now.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/14/2015 10:32:31 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Hmmm, YYW went after Bullish hardcore. Could Bullish be the "mark"?

Sorry I was AWOL last night. After that 18 hour day Tuesday, and my typical 13 hour day Wednesday, I could barely see straight, let alone think straight.

What happened to the Bullish lynch, BTW? How did YYW's start? I saw he was being stupid when I left, but to lynch him over Bullish seemed strange, given others' reasonings.

I need to catch up, obviously.
My work here is, finally, done.
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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5/14/2015 11:04:36 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
From YYW's role, we can assume that scum had more incentive than usual to achieve and push hard on a mislynch. This should lend me a lot of town cred. We should pay more attention to those who either aggressively or passively pushed my wagon. Those who did so early on should especially be of suspicion.

Given that scum clearly have 1 day kill, and possibly even more, the scum ratio shouldn't be too high. 4 seems reasonable. I expect all of them to have been on my wagon, or wanted to be. perhaps 1-2 who pushed strongly, and 2-3 who just wanted to lynch me "because of policy." I expect 0 to risk derailing the wagon, especially after so many declared that my lynch was "inevitable."

This should put F16 and BV is the solid town pile.
Khaos's reaction to debate's death was very town.
I add them to my town pile from last DP, XLAV, Saph, and Skep.
http://www.debate.org...

That leaves Ore, drafter, 7th, and Yraelz. I'll lynch them in any order.

I think we have this in the bag.
0x5f3759df
TheGreatAndPowerful
Posts: 3,012
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5/14/2015 11:14:17 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
This doesn't clear Bullish. He had to pick the mark before the game started. Nor do we know Bullish was the target. Again, why would scum kill debate if they were hoping for a lynch on Bullish?

VTL Bullish

Bullish, then F16.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/14/2015 11:17:00 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Awesome. I was kinda nervous that YYW was town and had been right about Bullish this whole time, but I'm glad we made the right decision. Bullish being the mark explains YYW's behavior perfectly.

I agree with Bullish that YYW's flip puts serious doubt on Drafter, Ore, 7th, and Yraelz.
TheGreatAndPowerful
Posts: 3,012
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5/14/2015 11:18:23 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 11:17:00 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
Awesome. I was kinda nervous that YYW was town and had been right about Bullish this whole time, but I'm glad we made the right decision. Bullish being the mark explains YYW's behavior perfectly.

I agree with Bullish that YYW's flip puts serious doubt on Drafter, Ore, 7th, and Yraelz.

No it doesn't. Bullish isn't cleared. and neither you nor F16 are clear for defending him, nor is anyone else condemned for wanting him lynched.

That's bush league nonsense.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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5/14/2015 11:24:43 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 10:36:10 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
WAIT A MINUTE!!!!

Mafia had the potential for TWO DKs?!?

Unless you think Debatability was killed by a Vig, it would appear so. I don't really like the "wait a minute!!!! [states an obvious fact]"
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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5/14/2015 11:26:01 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
VTL TGAP.

His behaviour last DP can be explained by his belief in a quick DP1. But this continued badness is unexplainable.

A long time ago, Yraelz proved that drafter never communicates with his scum mates. Drafter at the time acknowledged that, but innate scum tells die hard. TGAP interacted very little with YYW even though they shared a lot in common in the DP1.

TGAP is being ridiculously stubborn and unreasonable. Both this DP and last. This fits his scum play from Adventure mafia (linked last DP).
0x5f3759df
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/14/2015 11:27:40 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 11:18:23 AM, TheGreatAndPowerful wrote:
At 5/14/2015 11:17:00 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
Awesome. I was kinda nervous that YYW was town and had been right about Bullish this whole time, but I'm glad we made the right decision. Bullish being the mark explains YYW's behavior perfectly.

I agree with Bullish that YYW's flip puts serious doubt on Drafter, Ore, 7th, and Yraelz.

No it doesn't. Bullish isn't cleared. and neither you nor F16 are clear for defending him, nor is anyone else condemned for wanting him lynched.

That's bush league nonsense.

I could believe that if your FOS's last DP made any sort of sense. But they didn't.

Looking through your post history, you FOS'd Bull because he was purposely trolling, and didnt want to claim. Neither of those are scumtells. You played in Action Movies where Medic stalled for pages and paged on his claim, and he was town. You shouldnt scumread that. Trolling early in the DP is also null, and I think you'd be better than to FOS someone for that.

Your suspicion of F-16 wasn't much better. Even if what you accused him of was scummy (it wasn't), I have a hard time believing that you would be willing to straight up declare a player like F-16 as today's lynch target off something so flimsy. With elite players, we usually want to get a solid case against them before doing that.

Your unwillingness to reconsider your reads in light of new information is also throwing me off.
TheGreatAndPowerful
Posts: 3,012
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5/14/2015 11:29:16 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 11:27:40 AM, BlackVoid wrote:

Your unwillingness to reconsider your reads in light of new information is also throwing me off.

The new information CONDEMNS Bullish, not exonerates him.

WHY KILL DEBATE? If they were counting on a Bullish lynch, why off one of the people on that wagon?! WHY

Explain it or shut up.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/14/2015 11:32:36 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 11:29:16 AM, TheGreatAndPowerful wrote:
At 5/14/2015 11:27:40 AM, BlackVoid wrote:

Your unwillingness to reconsider your reads in light of new information is also throwing me off.

The new information CONDEMNS Bullish, not exonerates him.

WHY KILL DEBATE? If they were counting on a Bullish lynch, why off one of the people on that wagon?! WHY

Explain it or shut up.

Because she was widely townread. Jesus.
TheGreatAndPowerful
Posts: 3,012
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5/14/2015 11:33:36 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 11:32:36 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 5/14/2015 11:29:16 AM, TheGreatAndPowerful wrote:
At 5/14/2015 11:27:40 AM, BlackVoid wrote:

Your unwillingness to reconsider your reads in light of new information is also throwing me off.

The new information CONDEMNS Bullish, not exonerates him.

WHY KILL DEBATE? If they were counting on a Bullish lynch, why off one of the people on that wagon?! WHY

Explain it or shut up.

Because she was widely townread. Jesus.

...

Like I said, you can't explain it. They could have killed her today, for example. Why derail as mislynch when they were depending on it?

YOU
CANT
EXPLAIN
IT
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/14/2015 11:40:20 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 11:24:43 AM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 5/14/2015 10:36:10 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
WAIT A MINUTE!!!!

Mafia had the potential for TWO DKs?!?

Unless you think Debatability was killed by a Vig, it would appear so. I don't really like the "wait a minute!!!! [states an obvious fact]"

No, I have a hard time believing a town vig would shoot Debate, plus, no one took credit.
An, SK, maybe. Do we know if there is a TP? Do we know if there is NOT one?
However, WAIT A MINUTE!!!, assume it was mafia. In what game does mafia get an NP0 night kill? Mafia rarely has the ability to do anything DP1, and if we assume YYW was trying to lynch the mark, that shows desperation for a kill (i.e. the reward for the lynch). I don't know what to make of this....

Why was Bullish not lynched yesterday by those who were going to before Debate was shot? Or, were they all on the lynch?
Why was YYW lynched? Or rather, why the turn from Bullish to YYW?

Why did you respond to this post, and not the other? Why did you imply a statement I had already addressed last DP? What is wrong with stating something plainly and drawing attention to it?

If mafia have two DKs, they are likely smaller than normal. That is something to consider.
My work here is, finally, done.
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
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5/14/2015 11:40:36 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
This post directly responds to TGAP: http://www.debate.org...

He failed to respond to it after being asked twice.

My wagon was derailed because it was a shiity wagon on its own right.

I'm am fairly confident he is now just BSing as a last straw before being busted.
0x5f3759df
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/14/2015 11:43:52 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Saph defended both Bullish and YYW. Her uncertainty felt genuine, imo. I like that when, even though she was nervous about it, she limited her hammer offer to only YYW and did not ever say she would put her vote on Bull. Give YYW's flip and the current position of all the votes, I don't see the scum motivation for that if Bullish was indeed the mark.

I was kinda nervous when the reasons she gave for doubting YYW were basically the exact same things I said posted a few minutes after I posted them myself. Felt like she could be copying. But I'm willing to go town there for now.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/14/2015 11:50:05 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
7th could be scum. Look through his post history. His posts are 90% on Bullish, 10% on YYW. The only time he gives his opinions on anyone else is when Liz specifically asks him for his reads. Other than that, he tunnels in on Bullish/YYW and makes no attempt to figure out the affiliation of anyone else. I feel like a townie would be trying to read a multitude of other players, even as the Bullish wagon was going on.

It is 7th, though. So who knows.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/14/2015 11:56:25 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Blegh. It may not be scummy after all. I took a look through Surprise DP2 where 7th was town, and he did kinda the same thing where he focused on one player and gave minimal reads on anyone else.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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5/14/2015 12:06:52 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 11:32:36 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 5/14/2015 11:29:16 AM, TheGreatAndPowerful wrote:
At 5/14/2015 11:27:40 AM, BlackVoid wrote:

Your unwillingness to reconsider your reads in light of new information is also throwing me off.

The new information CONDEMNS Bullish, not exonerates him.

WHY KILL DEBATE? If they were counting on a Bullish lynch, why off one of the people on that wagon?! WHY

Explain it or shut up.

Because she was widely townread. Jesus.

That really only works if Bullish is not the mark. Getting two kills next DP far out weighs killing a common town read. I'm more interested in why the mafia kill was so late and why they haven't used theirs yet today. If I was mafia, I would have killed someone (probably F-16, assuming he wasn't scum with me) as soon as possible, before a doctor could protect or a watcher could see, and before town could really get any info from behavior. It is odd that they didn't.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/14/2015 12:26:00 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
13 players, and FT has a thing about allowing town mislynches, so we assume 10:3, giving town three mislynches, one for each scum player.

However, with a 2x DK mafia, if we balance that at 1.3333 DKs, that is 4 death by DP4.
10:3, plus 4 deaths and two mislynches is LYLO at end of DP3, and DP4 it is game over.
Two mislynches for town? I don't think so.

Think about this: if mafia just claimed DP1 cop, and guiltied the mark, that is the following:
10:3 - DK plus mark - 8:3
DP2 - 8:3 (mark mafia), DK x2 and lynch mark - 6:2
DP3 - 6:2, 2x DK, it is 4:2 and MYLO

So, what is more likely:
1. Bullish is the mark
2. Mafia have no DK, and there is an SK.
3. Mafia is only two players.

I think it is two, and that puts my vote back on Bullish.
Is mafia going to waive an NK to secure a mislynch? Doubtful.

VTL Bullish
I'm also thinking Drafter is not mafia, since YYW seemed to be buddying him.
My work here is, finally, done.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/14/2015 12:30:22 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 12:26:00 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
I'm also thinking Drafter is not mafia, since YYW seemed to be buddying him.

Yeah, thats one of the doubts I'm having on him.

This conversation in particular:

Drafter: "Being too agreeable with me is hazardous to your health."

YYW: "lol then say something dumb and I'll disagree."

...feels like extremely overt buddying, the type thats so obvious it may not even come from scum.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/14/2015 12:35:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 12:06:52 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:

That really only works if Bullish is not the mark. Getting two kills next DP far out weighs killing a common town read.

Your argument assumes that killing Liz would have prevented Bullish from being lynched. I don't think it would have. The sensible people last DP acknowldged that from a town perspective, Liz dying has no bearing on Bullish's affiliation. So in a way, it could be argued that YYW kind of slipped when he unvoted afterward, acting like it mattered somehow.

The point is, if Bullish was looking like he was gonna be lynched, and killing Liz shouldnt change people's attitude towards him, then it still would look like Bullish was gonna be lynched. The only difference is that they would need an extra vote to finish him off. Thats not very hard to do.
TheGreatAndPowerful
Posts: 3,012
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5/14/2015 12:50:52 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/14/2015 12:35:09 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 5/14/2015 12:06:52 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:

That really only works if Bullish is not the mark. Getting two kills next DP far out weighs killing a common town read.

Your argument assumes that killing Liz would have prevented Bullish from being lynched. I don't think it would have. The sensible people last DP acknowldged that from a town perspective, Liz dying has no bearing on Bullish's affiliation. So in a way, it could be argued that YYW kind of slipped when he unvoted afterward, acting like it mattered somehow.

The point is, if Bullish was looking like he was gonna be lynched, and killing Liz shouldnt change people's attitude towards him, then it still would look like Bullish was gonna be lynched. The only difference is that they would need an extra vote to finish him off. Thats not very hard to do.

Except... It didn't happen. He wasn't lynched. He didn't die.

And you can't get around that extra vote thing. However trivial or negligible you're trying to get us to believe it was, it was still a nonzero negative impact on that wagon. So they chose to harm a mislynch wagon while at the same time extending the DP (since the wagon needed more votes) instead of just killing someone not on that wagon, not harming that wagon and keeping the wagon at L-1 and thus keeping the DP near its end.

Brilliant.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/14/2015 12:53:08 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Assuming there is an SK, I am thinking XLAV, Ore, or Drafter.
XLAV seems a bit too quiet to be town, but, maybe he's posted where I haven't read.
I don't think XLAV or Drafter are mafia, though.
Ore's unvote before Debate's death may have been to ensure his SK went through. The timing was bad all around, but, it could be coincidence.

Ore, I am recanting my solid town read on him, but that's mostly because he seems to not be thinking about my posts, yet commenting on them. I'd expect better from him, but, in Wild West mafia, I, too, expected better of him. So, I'm not sure. I'd be willing to lynch him, but would rather not at this point with other suspects.

I still like Skep and Saph as town, though. I'm leaning town on BV, Yraelz, XLAV, Ore, and F-16 (although, TP's usually fall in this category).
I'd be willing to lynch everyone else.
My work here is, finally, done.