Total Posts:275|Showing Posts:1-30|Last Page
Jump to topic:

Nightless Mafia DP4

FourTrouble
Posts: 12,759
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 7:19:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
== Dead ==

Seventh was town. Vanilla.

debatability was town. Vanilla.

YYW was mafia. Marksman. Before the game starts, choose a mark. If your mark is lynched, you'll acquire a kill during the next DP. When your mark is lynched, you must choose a new mark.

Yraelz was mafia. Hammerer. If your vote is not on anyone at L-1, your role passively hammers them.

== Alive ==

1. Ore
2. Xlav
3. BlackVoid
4. Saph
5. drafter
6. Skep
7. Bullish
8. Khaos
9. F-16

With 9 alive, it takes 6 votes to lynch. The DP ends 72 hours from now.
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,285
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 7:36:02 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Well, it seems like the anti-Bullish block is more scummy than I anticipated. I really want Drafter's reads now.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 7:46:10 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Doesn't change the fact that he threatened to leave the site which makes him likely town. Btw, Happy Birthday drafter.

I think it should be fairly obvious by now that scum's agenda was to get Bullish lynched DP1.

I don't really have any scumreads I feel confident in, my townblock is largely unchanged except I want Skep's in-depth reasoning for townreading Yraelz.

Saph also had a weird Yraelz townread which needs explanation.

It is about time I get a read on Khaos but he's still null to me unfortunately. Going to re-read DP1 before posting more analysis.

Ore, I'm still not sure on. I still believe that he's a bulletproof no matter his alignment.

Also, I was thinking this through. I think there are likely four scum. They can't be five because a single mislynch on the mark would be enough for scum to win which is too OP for FT's modding style. There may be less than four but I'll assume four to be the safe side.
XLAV
Posts: 13,715
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:00:15 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 7:46:10 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Doesn't change the fact that he threatened to leave the site which makes him likely town. Btw, Happy Birthday drafter.
Is that the only reason you town read him?
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,285
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:01:03 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 7:46:10 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
I don't really have any scumreads I feel confident in, my townblock is largely unchanged except I want Skep's in-depth reasoning for townreading Yraelz.

I told you already, YYW's brusque request that he remove his vote from Drafter seemed to indicate that he didn't know Yraelz's role. That's why I town read him. If you recall, I was willing to lynch him this DP. Now I'm leaning town on Drafter, because this could have also have just been a way for YYW to suck up to him.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:02:50 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 8:00:15 PM, XLAV wrote:
At 5/16/2015 7:46:10 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
Doesn't change the fact that he threatened to leave the site which makes him likely town. Btw, Happy Birthday drafter.
Is that the only reason you town read him?

There's more context to that which is hard to explain. Me, drafter, and BV played a lot of mafia together before you joined the site and know each other as well you can know someone online.

Saying he'll leave the site isn't a threat that drafter would make lightly, and especially not if he's scum.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:03:52 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 8:01:03 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 5/16/2015 7:46:10 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
I don't really have any scumreads I feel confident in, my townblock is largely unchanged except I want Skep's in-depth reasoning for townreading Yraelz.

I told you already, YYW's brusque request that he remove his vote from Drafter seemed to indicate that he didn't know Yraelz's role. That's why I town read him. If you recall, I was willing to lynch him this DP. Now I'm leaning town on Drafter, because this could have also have just been a way for YYW to suck up to him.

Who are you leaning scum on then?
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,285
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:04:37 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 8:03:52 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 5/16/2015 8:01:03 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 5/16/2015 7:46:10 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
I don't really have any scumreads I feel confident in, my townblock is largely unchanged except I want Skep's in-depth reasoning for townreading Yraelz.

I told you already, YYW's brusque request that he remove his vote from Drafter seemed to indicate that he didn't know Yraelz's role. That's why I town read him. If you recall, I was willing to lynch him this DP. Now I'm leaning town on Drafter, because this could have also have just been a way for YYW to suck up to him.

Who are you leaning scum on then?

My scum pool right now is Ore/Saph/Bull
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,285
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:05:05 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
And Khaos. Khaos probably even more than Saph.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,285
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:05:59 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Town
BV
XLAV
F-16
.
Drafter
.
Saph
Ore
Khaos
Ore
Scum
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,285
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:07:10 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
>.> Damn gin.

Town
BV
XLAV
F-16
.
Drafter
.
Saph
Bull
Khaos
Ore
Scum
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:12:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Sorry for not being more active recently. I'm still gonna be almost completely inactive for today and tomorrow because of the play (yesterday was our first of three shows).

Right now, I'm willing to lynch TGAP, Khaos, Skep, and Saph (I don't care on the order). I'll explain why for each of them, then address myself.

TGAP - The "Bullish being the mark" idea is only getting stronger and seems to be trying some people together. Also, I don't like the "lynch me so I can quit the site." I doubt that he is going to stay on DDO just because we don't lynch him. He is either leaving or staying, regardless of the outcome of this game. And if he wants to leave, he can request a replacement and leave. I'd like him to stay, but that is his choice and has no baring on if he is town or scum. His "my way or the highway" attitude is anti-town. Especially for this game, where it is almost 100% behavior based and interactions are the key to figuring it out. Trying to get in the way of that or force it out is harmful.

Khaos - based on a thread he recently created, it seems he is trying to post less, which was something that I noticed different from Wild West. So that is only null. But he has also been dead set on Bullish and has offered some pretty bad theories. I know that I am also a "theory player," I think of different theories that might be going on. Is that something I would try as scum? Would these people try that as scum? The one that jumped out was when Khaos stated that TGAP could be cop and have a guilty result on Bullish and not want to out himself. Well, there are two cases for that. He is X shot (let's assume 1 shot). There is no reason to not out after the shot is used. And definitely no reason to allow the tracker bit to lynch 7th if he had a guilty on Bullish. If he was a normal cop, then we could assume that he got his guilty on Bullish on DP1 and so should have 2-3 more results for us right now. I think this is pretty clearly not the case and not even worth assuming TGAP might be the cop. But he used this to justify a vote on Bullish while avoiding have to scum read bullish himself.

Saph - her read flip on Yaz as well as her inactivity is cause for worry.

Skep - just general inactivity. I was thinking of my reads around the start of DP3 and for the life of me, could not remember who our 10th player was. I would prefer to see TGAP or Khaos lynched first but am fine with anyone on the list.

Now, on to myself. I am town BP, I can't prove it. I am sorry that I can't prove it, but that is not anything I can help. Last DP we went just as long time wise and post wise to the point of the kill in DP1, so we can assume that mafia is not hampered by "you can't kill until 24 hours" or anything like that. And if YYW is the only marker, that makes my role seem highly unlikely. As said, I can't prove it other than being lynched. If you want to lynch me, I understand. My playing style is not idea for this game. I prefer to stay null to slight town read. I don't like to have people have a strong town read on me (unless I am scum of course, but even then, I'll say that I don't just for consistency), because scum like to kill those that they don't believe they can get a mislynch on. If I can keep them thinking they can mislynch me, I can stay alive longer and get more use out of any roles I have. With the mafia having no killing power, that makes my play style rather poor. So I have an unconfirmable role and aim for just a null read. I can understand town wants to lynch me from a POE perspective.

I'll be leaving for the play here shortly and will try to be on my phone between numbers for quick comments and vote changes, but at this point, I see no reason for super long, overly discussed DPs. We should have all the behaviors we need and can proceed.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,285
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:13:01 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 8:10:44 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 5/16/2015 8:07:10 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:

You still think Bullish is likely scum despite scum gunning for him from the start of the game till now?

Stranger things have happened. I just haven't seen anything worth moving him up the ladder that I don't think that he's capable of faking.

Ore and Khaos are definitely my preferred lynches though.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
XLAV
Posts: 13,715
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:13:27 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 8:10:44 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 5/16/2015 8:07:10 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:

You still think Bullish is likely scum despite scum gunning for him from the start of the game till now?

Its possible that they wanted to buss him.
Last time I played with Yraelz, he likes bussing his scummates for town cred.

Though, behaviorly I town read Bullish, so I see that as unlikely.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:25:18 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 8:13:27 PM, XLAV wrote:

Ore's last post felt town to me. There are several things from Ore that have felt town actually so I think it is probably best we take the time to re-evaluate all reads.

Why is Khaos town?

And I'm not overly impressed with Saph either. I'd like to see what this detailed analysis is that she wanted to provide.

My best guess for scum at this point would be Khaos/Saph.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 8:27:11 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I like the whole "I can't prove my role and if you want to lynch me through POE, I get it." It seemed genuine. I guess he could pulling a really good manipulation but it doesn't feel like that.
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 9:16:40 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 8:25:18 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 5/16/2015 8:13:27 PM, XLAV wrote:

Ore's last post felt town to me. There are several things from Ore that have felt town actually so I think it is probably best we take the time to re-evaluate all reads.

Aww hell naw.

...
0x5f3759df
Bullish
Posts: 3,527
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 9:19:53 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'm still on Ore and drafter..

I'd say there very unlikely to be more than 2 scum left, so we can afford 4 mislynches barring more scum kills.

Khaos and Saph are up there for reevaluation for me too, bur preferably after both Ore and drafter are dead.
0x5f3759df
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 9:23:04 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'd bet the game on XLAV, F-16, and BV being town, so we can lynch everyone else. It doesn't matter the order. We don't have to get scum with this and the next lynch. We just need to hit the scum eventually and we will win.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 9:38:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 9:27:58 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 5/16/2015 9:01:35 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
F-16. Right now, would you bet the game on BV and XLAV being town?

Absolutely.

Okay, so we lynch the rest. The order doesn't matter. We don't need to spend 400 posts and 48 hours each and every DP. Just put the people in an order and lynch us until the last scum falls.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Sapphique
Posts: 4,119
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 9:46:22 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 9:38:09 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 5/16/2015 9:27:58 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 5/16/2015 9:01:35 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
F-16. Right now, would you bet the game on BV and XLAV being town?

Absolutely.

Okay, so we lynch the rest. The order doesn't matter. We don't need to spend 400 posts and 48 hours each and every DP. Just put the people in an order and lynch us until the last scum falls.

I'm okay with this, if we have enough mislynches. As long as town wins I'm happy.

@F-16 and ore: I'm getting there...the DPs are longer and occur more quickly (since this is nightless) than I'm used to.
@ore: I've explained my inactivity several times now. In short, I had a large project that I needed to finish Thursday night and which I stayed up until 3 am doing. This probably affected my thinking. As a general rule I'm also not going to be online until after 3 pm EST because I can't go on DDO at school.
DDO Beginners' Mafia Moderator -- PM me if you'd like to learn how to play mafia!

"We wondered what happiness would look like if we could give it a physical form...the shape of happiness might resemble glass...even though you don't usually notice it, it's still definitely there. You merely have to change your point of view slightly, and then that glass will sparkle when it reflects the light. I doubt that anything else could argue its own existence more eloquently." ~Lelouch
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 9:56:55 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 9:23:04 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
I'd bet the game on XLAV, F-16, and BV being town, so we can lynch everyone else. It doesn't matter the order. We don't have to get scum with this and the next lynch. We just need to hit the scum eventually and we will win.

I would advise against complacence. We don't know what other abilities mafia has and nobody has been able to speculate an elegant game design which explains everything that's happened so far.

Do mafia have daykills? How many? What if they just have a 2X or 3X daykill in addition to the kills they get by lynching the mark? Of which they used up one during DP1.

I'm willing to meet you halfway and speed up my re-read of the game but I'm wary of being complacent. Reading the re-reading the game is how I get my best reads.

The game would be pretty townsided if the mafia only have that 1X kill in the event that YYW was lynched early before he got his first mark lynched (he was).

This plan does make me a little more confident you are town though so that's helpful.

How do you feel about lynching from Saph or Khaos today?
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 9:58:58 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 9:19:53 PM, Bullish wrote:
I'm still on Ore and drafter..

I'd say there very unlikely to be more than 2 scum left, so we can afford 4 mislynches barring more scum kills.

Khaos and Saph are up there for reevaluation for me too, bur preferably after both Ore and drafter are dead.

I don't think Ore as scum would propose the plan he did.

Unless he and Yraelz cooked it up together in their scum PM to mislead the town and get a bunch of quick lynches in. This would make most sense if someone widely townread is scum - like Skep.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
5/16/2015 10:15:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/16/2015 9:56:55 PM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:
At 5/16/2015 9:23:04 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
I'd bet the game on XLAV, F-16, and BV being town, so we can lynch everyone else. It doesn't matter the order. We don't have to get scum with this and the next lynch. We just need to hit the scum eventually and we will win.

I would advise against complacence. We don't know what other abilities mafia has and nobody has been able to speculate an elegant game design which explains everything that's happened so far.

Do mafia have daykills? How many? What if they just have a 2X or 3X daykill in addition to the kills they get by lynching the mark? Of which they used up one during DP1.

I'm willing to meet you halfway and speed up my re-read of the game but I'm wary of being complacent. Reading the re-reading the game is how I get my best reads.

The game would be pretty townsided if the mafia only have that 1X kill in the event that YYW was lynched early before he got his first mark lynched (he was).

This plan does make me a little more confident you are town though so that's helpful.

How do you feel about lynching from Saph or Khaos today?

Mafia have been lynched 2 out of 3 days so far and the only mislynch was because of a bad role result. I highly doubt that they are sitting on some special role powers with how the game appears to be going. Unless they think they are in most town read side of a list we propose. If they can get it set so that they are the last two on the list (so it is the three I'm betting are town and the two of them) so they can sneak in a hidden day kill. But technically without an everyday kill, even if it is two mafia and two town, that is a draw. Either way, if you want to go over the game, I can't stop you.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"