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Nightless Mafia Endgame

FourTrouble
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5/19/2015 5:50:25 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Town (F-16, BV, debate, Xlav, 7th, Bullish, drafter, Saph, Ore, and Skep) wins.

== Town Roles ==

6 Vanillas -- debate, 7th, drafter, Saph, Skep, F-16

BV was 2-Shot Mason Recruiter. You die if you recruit mafia.

Xlav was politician.

Ore was delusional bulletproof. "Delusional" was a hidden flavor, where Ore was told he was bulletproof, but he was actually just a vanilla.

Bullish was 1-shot Paranoid Tracker. The paranoia caused the tracker to track the target to the player with the most votes.

== Mafia Roles ==

YYW was Marksman. Before the game starts, choose a mark. If your mark is lynched, you'll acquire a kill during the next DP. When your mark is lynched, you must choose a new mark.

Khaos was 1-Shot Silencer. You may silence a player for the rest of the DP.

Yraelz was Hammerer. If your vote is not on anyone at L-1, your role passively hammers them.

== Balancing ==

The probability that mafia wins with random lynches was roughly 55%. This gives the mafia a slight edge when looking at the numbers alone. The roles introduce new imbalances. Mafia was given a 1-shot factional kill, marksman, 1-shot silencer, and hammerer, and another 1-shot factional kill after they were reduced to one member. Town had a 2-shot mason recruiter, politician, delusional bulletproof, 1-shot paranoid tracker, and six vanillas.

I wanted the game to reward good play and punish bad play. If mafia played perfectly and lynched their mark every DP, the mafia only needed 3 mislynches to win. When mafia exercises that much control over a game through skill, they deserve the quick win entirely. On the other hand, for every mistake the mafia made, the game became harder to win. That's the nature of nightless games, since each loss of a member requires two mislynches to overcome.

The hammerer could have been used to frame townies. The mafia could have argued that hammerer always triggers unless the hammerer is voting the guy, and they could have framed that as a soft sensor, which they then could have used to frame townies. The 1-shot silencer allowed mafia to prevent a townie from speaking or voting at all, in effect removing that player's presence from the game. In effect, the silence was like a temporary kill. These were really strong roles that gave mafia the ability to take control of the game, but only if used effectively and strategically. As I said, the game rewarded good play and punished bad play.

The same goes for the town. The 2-shot mason had multiple functions. The mason could confirm alignments and form a powerful town block. Of course, if you recruit mafia, you die. And if you die before you've recruited anyone, then your role is wasted. This makes each recruitment a *high reward high risk* endeavor, which again rewards good play and punishes bad play. I made the role 2-shot to keep things balanced, as an unlimited mason could potentially destroy the mafia without any skill involved (just recruit randomly and chances town wins go up significantly). I also left open the possibility that the mason was flavored or mafia. The 1-shot paranoid tracker was supposed to create some paranoia, which I thought could translate to the mason (and it certainly gave the mafia opportunity to frame the paranoia in that light).

The bulletproof was delusional (i.e. thought he was bulletproof but was actually a vanilla), so the mafia could have killed him. I was curious what would happen with this, because the point of a bulletproof role is to attract kills, so the idea was to create a potential distraction from the mason. If bulletproof played this right, he would have attracted a daykill, and although he would have died, he would have saved the mason from death, which would have been a benefit for town. I also thought bulletproof was a scummy claim so it was still subject to mislynching. Finally, the politician is a role that I don't think has much utility as town but tons of utility as scum, which makes it a scummy role, so I thought that'd be a distraction and potential mislynch without giving town any real utility. Overall, I think the game is balanced so that the best team wins (and I think the result clearly demonstrates this).

Note: the game was originally designed for 16 players. The mafia had 4 players and the town had 12. I decided to take out one of the mafia and two of the town. I believed that would balance the game. I'm not sure if that made it more balanced or less balanced, but in retrospect, I think it might have been less balanced. If you look at the numbers alone, it should be roughly equal chances for winning, but numbers don't tell the whole story in mafia. I may have underestimated the collective power of 4 mafia versus the collective power of 3 -- and more specifically the effect of losing a mafia member when you have 3 as compared with when you have 4. Still, not sure how much of impact this had on the game; balance issues never mattered since town completely dominated the game.

== Analysis ==

I'm gonna write this up tomorrow after getting some sleep. Suffice to say, this was a disaster for the mafia from the start. The game's outcome reflects how well town played and how badly mafia played very well. BV and F-16 had one of the best town performances I've ever seen from either of them. Xlav, as usual, was great. The others also managed to make themselves transparently town enough to avoid getting lynched, and they were smart enough to let BV and F-16 lead them to victory. Anyway, I'm about to fall asleep, so I'll say more tomorrow, as there's a lot of stuff I want to comment on.
XLAV
Posts: 13,715
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5/19/2015 7:30:23 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I decided not to use my role unless it was LyLo or even MyLo. Though I might use it if townies were voting at the wrong people. I knew some people would go ape sh*t and ruin my town read so it was a good thing I never used it.

@BV, who did you target?
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/19/2015 7:33:49 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
A mason, really?!?
Like I said, on paper it may have been balanced, but not in execution.

Why, oh why, did I replace in this game? Replacing Medic was about a 50% chance of being scum by my reads.

This game was annoying as hell to play as scum for Khaos, when no one listens to me.
Shame on town for not divulging information to players. Shame on town for misrepresenting me (e.g. F-16 saying my first substantial post was actually my second post, and just says "it was a vote on Bullish"). Shame on reading me as scum for null reads. Arghh!!!!

My plan DP4 was to act as silenced, to try to frame Bullish. That backfired, as you all ought to know that, as scum, I don't give up (see Zelda and Game Theory).
I'd say nearly everything I said I would likely have done as town, except put more pressure on my scum reads DP1. This appeared to be a classic case of confirmation bias, or at least, egocentric, because, just because you wouldn't do something as town, doesn't mean I wouldn't.

Also, the scum PM sucked. There was no discussion, no planning, and YYW got upset with me for FOSing him DP1. There was also a bit of confusion, and wasting the 1x kill on Debate just before a mislynch was stupid; however, we were all informed of this 1x DK mid-DP1, so we were a bit excited as well.

For the record, Skep was the mark.
My work here is, finally, done.
XLAV
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5/19/2015 7:36:46 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 7:33:49 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:

For the record, Skep was the mark.

Wtf, why Skep?
Ore , Bullish, maybe even Saph would have made more sense.
Skep is easy to read if you ask me.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/19/2015 7:39:10 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
And, as a spectator, my reads when I replaced in:
Honestly, I town read Ore, XLAV, Bullish, Saph
Lean town on Skep and BV
I was suspect of YYW, Drafter, and Yraelz.
Null on Debate, Medic, 7th, and F-16.
Believe me or not, it doesn't matter.

Which REALLY sucked replacing into scum like that.

Saph, you did fine, and you were right about me, but for the wrong reasons. Posting a list of posts is fine, but you dropped the reasoning given, and seemed to not think about motivation, for those posts.
Welcome to the fray.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/19/2015 7:40:56 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 7:36:46 AM, XLAV wrote:
At 5/19/2015 7:33:49 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:

For the record, Skep was the mark.

Wtf, why Skep?
Ore , Bullish, maybe even Saph would have made more sense.
Skep is easy to read if you ask me.

1. I don't know, I wasn't there. I replaced in.
2. IT WAS BEFORE THE GAME BEGAN, which, loses all tactical maneuvering. Hell, if the mark was masoned, there goes any chance. Oh, and we couldn't DK the mark, either.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/19/2015 8:04:35 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'd also like to say that, if that PM stated there was no recruiting, the inclusion of a mason is bastard modding.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/19/2015 9:00:39 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 8:49:28 AM, XLAV wrote:
At 5/19/2015 8:07:36 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 5/19/2015 7:22:15 AM, XLAV wrote:
Were you in the mason?
Who was?

No
idk

This doesn't terribly surprise me, but I would wager BV was, and DP1 at that.
My work here is, finally, done.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
Posts: 18,324
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5/19/2015 10:26:07 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Awesome. Thanks for the game FT.

I only ever voted scum and never voted a townie for the entire span of the game so that's sweet.

Nice job town. It was great playing with all of you.

On balance: I have to say I'd have disliked being scum in this game, FT. Most recent DDO games I've played, I always look at the scumteam at endgame and think I wouldn't have liked to have been scum because they didn't have much of a chance. Being town is already fun. I feel that if you are going to skew the game some way, skew it towards the scum. And if scum picked the Mason or recruit for their mark, they are likely not getting that lynch. It would have been more balanced if you had added an extra player to the scum while leaving everything else the same - and changed the Mason recruiter into a neighborizer (can recruit anyone).

I was BV's recruit midway through DP1. It was a ton of fun playing this game.
Bullish
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5/19/2015 10:38:57 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 10:26:07 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:

I was BV's recruit midway through DP1. It was a ton of fun playing this game.

I thought you two were unnaturally attached to each other and was paranoiding a F16/BV bus split with YYW and Yraelz by DP3.
0x5f3759df
Khaos_Mage
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5/19/2015 10:54:21 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 10:38:57 AM, Bullish wrote:
At 5/19/2015 10:26:07 AM, F-16_Fighting_Falcon wrote:

I was BV's recruit midway through DP1. It was a ton of fun playing this game.

I thought you two were unnaturally attached to each other and was paranoiding a F16/BV bus split with YYW and Yraelz by DP3.

Agreed, and I was going to use this inside info against them. LOL
I was thinking they were lovers.
I did find it annoying that F-16 would use this inside knowledge of BV's being town against me for FOS'ing him. Like any other townie would know BV was town. They were clearly tied together somehow.

And, I liked how it wasn't considered that the mason could be flavored as well LOL
My work here is, finally, done.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/19/2015 11:47:07 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Yes!

I was kind of with F-16 in that after we hammered Khaos, I kind of felt like it wasn't him after all. But now I feel a lot better about defending Saph. I'm really glad we didn't lynch he because I would have felt awful MLing her with all the effort she put in.

It was just too hard envisioning a scumteam that didn't include Khaos.

This was one of the best town performances I've ever seen. My mason PM with F-16 might even be longer than the goddang mafia PM. This was teamwork at its finest : F-16 helped drive the lynch away from Ore, and I helped drive it away from Saph. We both worked together to get YYW and Yraelz. Working with him in this game made it one of the most fun games I've played in.

But @Khaos and Bull, me and F-16 would have known each other were town even without the mason PM. Especially after the Yraelz lynch that we were both a part of. We were obvtown.

Xlav also did great with his FOS's of YYW and Yraelz, and the townread on Saph. Props.

And...the mark was Skep? Thats hilarious.

GG.
BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/19/2015 11:51:04 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Skep being the mark means that YYW pushed Bullish's lynch for basically no reason. I'd like to hear from him on what was going on there.
Maikuru
Posts: 9,112
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5/19/2015 11:56:18 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 7:33:49 AM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
A mason, really?!?
Like I said, on paper it may have been balanced, but not in execution.

Why, oh why, did I replace in this game? Replacing Medic was about a 50% chance of being scum by my reads.

This game was annoying as hell to play as scum for Khaos, when no one listens to me.
Shame on town for not divulging information to players. Shame on town for misrepresenting me (e.g. F-16 saying my first substantial post was actually my second post, and just says "it was a vote on Bullish"). Shame on reading me as scum for null reads. Arghh!!!!

My plan DP4 was to act as silenced, to try to frame Bullish. That backfired, as you all ought to know that, as scum, I don't give up (see Zelda and Game Theory).
I'd say nearly everything I said I would likely have done as town, except put more pressure on my scum reads DP1. This appeared to be a classic case of confirmation bias, or at least, egocentric, because, just because you wouldn't do something as town, doesn't mean I wouldn't.

Also, the scum PM sucked. There was no discussion, no planning, and YYW got upset with me for FOSing him DP1. There was also a bit of confusion, and wasting the 1x kill on Debate just before a mislynch was stupid; however, we were all informed of this 1x DK mid-DP1, so we were a bit excited as well.

For the record, Skep was the mark.

I couldn't understand scum's play in this game at all. Skep was the mark? That is crazy, considering the other mislynchable players on the list. The DK of debate? Whose idea was that? I messaged FT and was like, how is BV not dead before the game even starts? I would have daykilled him before he posted once lol
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
- lamerde

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Maikuru
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5/19/2015 11:58:10 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 11:51:04 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
Skep being the mark means that YYW pushed Bullish's lynch for basically no reason. I'd like to hear from him on what was going on there.

I loved your soft claim when talking about F-16, "If he were scum, I'd have killed myself, lol."
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
- lamerde

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BlackVoid
Posts: 9,170
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5/19/2015 12:04:09 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 11:58:10 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/19/2015 11:51:04 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
Skep being the mark means that YYW pushed Bullish's lynch for basically no reason. I'd like to hear from him on what was going on there.

I loved your soft claim when talking about F-16, "If he were scum, I'd have killed myself, lol."

Lol. FT liked it too.

So he told you we were masons?

And yeah, I'll post the mason PM at some point.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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5/19/2015 12:06:56 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 11:56:18 AM, Maikuru wrote:

I couldn't understand scum's play in this game at all. Skep was the mark? That is crazy, considering the other mislynchable players on the list. The DK of debate? Whose idea was that? I messaged FT and was like, how is BV not dead before the game even starts? I would have daykilled him before he posted once lol

PAY ATTENTION!!! ;)

I replaced in for Medic around post 100, so decisions were made.
YYW and Yraelz were both not really talking in the PM, so that didn't help.
FT messed up a bit, IMO, and didn't tell us how the game worked. The DP1 DK could be used anytime, but was given after I was replaced in, as a mod error (which further confused us, as it was a set-up error). So, they wanted to use it right away, and I did as well, but normally I would have waited, but I was being ignored in both the PM and the DP, so, yeah....tons of fun.

Mafia also were informed, after Yraelz was lynched, that we got a 1x DK when we go down to one player. This info at game start would have been helpful to plan out the game, as it seemed the only thing scum could do was lynch townies, which made the game super hard, and why I came out swinging for Yraelz.

It also didn't help that I, and mafia (even though they ought to have) and town, did not know there was no TP or anything, so that further confused me.

We screwed up big DP1, and never really recovered due to YYW's obvious scumminess and misuse of our DK. I wanted to shot Drafter, because I thought it would be funny and confusing, but in my saying that, and the conversation that ensued, I lost focus on waiting, and didn't push waiting. They were bloodthirsty.
My work here is, finally, done.
Maikuru
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5/19/2015 12:09:35 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 12:04:09 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
At 5/19/2015 11:58:10 AM, Maikuru wrote:
At 5/19/2015 11:51:04 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
Skep being the mark means that YYW pushed Bullish's lynch for basically no reason. I'd like to hear from him on what was going on there.

I loved your soft claim when talking about F-16, "If he were scum, I'd have killed myself, lol."

Lol. FT liked it too.

So he told you we were masons?

And yeah, I'll post the mason PM at some point.

He and I talked about the game in-progress. Someone suggested a while ago (maybe you or Yraelz?) that mods make spectator pms for people following the game. It's so much fun to follow along.
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
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Maikuru
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5/19/2015 12:11:47 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 12:06:56 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 5/19/2015 11:56:18 AM, Maikuru wrote:

I couldn't understand scum's play in this game at all. Skep was the mark? That is crazy, considering the other mislynchable players on the list. The DK of debate? Whose idea was that? I messaged FT and was like, how is BV not dead before the game even starts? I would have daykilled him before he posted once lol

PAY ATTENTION!!! ;)

I replaced in for Medic around post 100, so decisions were made.
YYW and Yraelz were both not really talking in the PM, so that didn't help.
FT messed up a bit, IMO, and didn't tell us how the game worked. The DP1 DK could be used anytime, but was given after I was replaced in, as a mod error (which further confused us, as it was a set-up error). So, they wanted to use it right away, and I did as well, but normally I would have waited, but I was being ignored in both the PM and the DP, so, yeah....tons of fun.

Mafia also were informed, after Yraelz was lynched, that we got a 1x DK when we go down to one player. This info at game start would have been helpful to plan out the game, as it seemed the only thing scum could do was lynch townies, which made the game super hard, and why I came out swinging for Yraelz.

It also didn't help that I, and mafia (even though they ought to have) and town, did not know there was no TP or anything, so that further confused me.

We screwed up big DP1, and never really recovered due to YYW's obvious scumminess and misuse of our DK. I wanted to shot Drafter, because I thought it would be funny and confusing, but in my saying that, and the conversation that ensued, I lost focus on waiting, and didn't push waiting. They were bloodthirsty.

lol I probably wouldn't have enjoyed it either. You know I like a chatty mafia pm.

Drafter would have been a better kill. Or BV or F-16.
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
- lamerde

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Khaos_Mage
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5/19/2015 12:13:31 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 11:47:07 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
Yes!

I was kind of with F-16 in that after we hammered Khaos, I kind of felt like it wasn't him after all. But now I feel a lot better about defending Saph. I'm really glad we didn't lynch he because I would have felt awful MLing her with all the effort she put in.

It was just too hard envisioning a scumteam that didn't include Khaos.
The funny thing is that there was no scumteam with me.
Twice, I've been lynched on this thinking :/

This was one of the best town performances I've ever seen. My mason PM with F-16 might even be longer than the goddang mafia PM. This was teamwork at its finest : F-16 helped drive the lynch away from Ore, and I helped drive it away from Saph. We both worked together to get YYW and Yraelz. Working with him in this game made it one of the most fun games I've played in.

I can guarantee it is longer. Hell, I think FT spoke to me directly more than my scummates. LOL

But @Khaos and Bull, me and F-16 would have known each other were town even without the mason PM. Especially after the Yraelz lynch that we were both a part of. We were obvtown.
Yeah, but you two were too sure.

Xlav also did great with his FOS's of YYW and Yraelz, and the townread on Saph. Props.

And...the mark was Skep? Thats hilarious.

GG.

You two, and town, played well, and mafia played awfully, and, I was being ignored/misrepresented most of the game, so, yeah, town clearly deserved the win.
I will always be left wondering, what would have happened if I played DP4...
My work here is, finally, done.
FourTrouble
Posts: 12,769
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5/19/2015 12:19:32 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
@F-16

I completely disagree with your comments on balance. Most games on DDO are unfairly skewed towards mafia. 2/3 of the games have ratios like 4 mafia, 8 town, night-kills, thus giving the town 2 available mislynches. Town's are generally given less room for error on DDO than mafia, which makes no sense, since the mafia is informed, town isn't. Mikal's game isn't an exception: the outcome was totally random. Anybody could have won, and nobody had any control over the game's outcome. That's not fun. But neither is playing as town and losing after 2 mislynches, only to find out that mafia had 4 members.

The idea behind the balance in my game was to give each side control over their destiny, and to create a game that was still balanced probability-wise. The numbers alone give mafia an edge -- 13 players, 10 town, 3 mafia gives mafia 55% chance of winning through random lynches. The mason gives town more control over their destiny; it functions as a neighborizer and investigator, with opportunity costs to playing each way. That flexibility and control over the outcome is what I wanted my game to have. It's why you and BV completely dominated. But note, the mafia could have dominated the game in the same fashion you guys did. They could have won in 3 mislynches.

If I added a fourth mafioso, then we're back in a situation where mafia only need 2 mislynches to win. I will never mod a game where there's 4 mafia, and mafia only need 2 mislynches to win. That's bullsh!t, as far as I'm concerned, and it removes all the fun from the town after-the-fact. I hate those games so much, and I've experienced the from both sides. I've won something like 70% of my games as scum on this site solely because the balance favored my team, not because of skill, and everyone on this site should know this, because I don't do sh!t as mafia and still win mostly. I hate that feeling. But I also hate the feeling where I play perfectly as town and still lose. This game tries to mitigate that somewhat. I'm sure if mafia had steamrolled the town and won after 3 mislynches, nobody would say the game was skewed towards town. Probability-wise, adding a fourth

Also, note, Khaos still had chances of winning this game. If BV recruited him, Khaos would have seen BV's flip and -- if he had any sort of intelligence -- immediately shot you. If Khaos could get to 4 players left, he'd have won automatically, because of the 1-shot kill and 1-shot silencer. He could kill, silence, force a no-lynch, and win. So, even after losing two members, and even with a mason recruiter, mafia still had a chance of winning. I think that makes the game quite balanced. As mafia fvcks up, the game gets harder to win. That's how it should be. I hate games where mafia fvcks up, all their members die and play like sh!t, the team doesn't deserve to win, but they still win, because the game doesn't actually get harder to win for them when they're lynched. This game made it harder to win as mafia got lynched, and it made it harder for town to win as town got lynched. That's the central mechanism underlying the balance.

Town played exceedingly well, and mafia played TERRIBLY, so completely TERRIBLE, that it made the game look skewed towards town. But I guarantee if mafia steamrolled the town, there'd be a different feeling about the balance. The game's result reflects great player by the town, and some bad play by the mafia.
FourTrouble
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5/19/2015 12:23:58 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 11:47:07 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
This was one of the best town performances I've ever seen. My mason PM with F-16 might even be longer than the goddang mafia PM. This was teamwork at its finest : F-16 helped drive the lynch away from Ore, and I helped drive it away from Saph. We both worked together to get YYW and Yraelz. Working with him in this game made it one of the most fun games I've played in.

This is the story of this game. The town played so well; the mafia didn't do anything to counter town's play.

Your mason PM was a delight to read. It was longer than the mafia PM, and it showed what teamwork looks like. You guys systematically analyzed every post in the game, read through games for meta, and figured out everyone's alignment. It was beautiful. I saw this happening when you got mason recruiter -- I knew you'd recruit F-16 -- but dam it was even more beautiful than I expected.
FourTrouble
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5/19/2015 12:30:07 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Talking about the game with Maikuru was fun... it was painful seeing the mafia fail so hard, so I needed someone to talk about things with.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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5/19/2015 12:45:17 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 12:19:32 PM, FourTrouble wrote:

I agree with the notion that DDO games have too few mislynches before town loses. Usually though the town has too many roles. Your game was a lot different. I feel that a 10-3 ratio with regular nightkills is balanced so I think the lack of them frustrated the mafia.

But I think town did play well and in a nightless game, that increases the margin of victory. Not lynching Bullish after he got paranoid results was a masterstroke. Instead we got two scum back to back. I think most towns would have lynched Bullish after that happened.
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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5/19/2015 12:52:36 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 5/19/2015 11:47:07 AM, BlackVoid wrote:
I'm really glad we didn't lynch he because I would have felt awful MLing her with all the effort she put in.

This too. For some reason her posts all seemed scummy to me but you did well convincing me otherwise. Working with you in Mason PM was pretty cool. Probably one of my best efforts as well - analysis wise.

And XLAV's instincts in this game were incredible.