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Miller discussion

TUF
Posts: 21,310
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7/22/2015 12:15:43 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I don"t know how often this idea comes up these days in mafia games, but I remember the argument in the past was always the same as I would imagine it is now. I would like to talk about how people react to miller claims, and discuss some ideas on how we deal should with them.

Now before this inevitably comes up, I am not starting this thread as an argument to a specific game or person, even though this can be related to a current game. I am hoping to clear some Meta discussion here as opposed to clogging up a game thread with it, and I will promise to be as objective as I can.

I am going to address some arguments concerning common reactions to miller claims, but would like to hear other opinions as well.

1.Should Millers SOP claim DP1? If they don"t should we lynch them?

In Game of Thrones Mafia, we had a case of this happening to Subutai, who did not SOP claim his miller role in DP1. This led to his eventual lynching in DP2 despite his rock solid character claim and justification to go with it. I can understand why the SOP claim is necessary. First because having a miller in the game is almost a confirmation of a cop being in the game as well. By not outing, you are potentially allowing the cop to waste an investigation on you. And obviously after you are revealed to be guilty, someone buying that you are miller is going to be a little more hard to believe. In subutai"s case I think he was okay though, because he outed his role before knowing if he was copped or not, which seems marginally better than claiming after knowing you"re in deep crap.

2.It"s a good safe mafia fake claim, and hard to dis-prove.

I actually dis-agree with this. This argument itself is almost self-defeating, because any mafia member should expect this logic to be used when claiming miller. People will always be weary of millers because of the "It is a good fake claim" Logic. Not only that, but I feel like a policy lynch for this reason is unfair to the player and the mod. Millers are used for balance purposes, as a cop is a pretty powerful town role (I don"t think people realize often how powerful it is). Raisor was a 3x cop only in my game and even with mis-information roles in the game, still made great use of his investigations that I think ultimately put the mafia in a tough space. Lynching someone just for claiming miller is abusive to the player who had no choice in the matter of his role, and serves no purpose as mod"s won"t just stop making them. Lynching someone solely for the basis of them claiming miller and nothing else, seems pretty bad reasoning to me.

What are your thoughts? How should we react to miller claims?
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
XLAV
Posts: 13,719
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7/22/2015 12:25:05 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
There was one game where I didn't claim miller in DP1. Funny thing is, I just forgot what my role was so I forgot to SOP claim it.

Luckily, my behavior was so obviously town for FT that he saved me from getting lynched.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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7/22/2015 12:28:23 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I disagree with SOP miller claims. It aids the mafia much more than aids the town, and, frankly, it depends on the timing, as the later the miller is claimed (i.e. depends on how active the player pool is relative to the miller) the more suspect the claim.

My defense is this: if we don't care about cop results when we lynch cleared innocents due to lawyers and godfathers, then we shouldn't SOP lynch a guilty cop result, either. It is hypocritical to say "well, we'll analyze behavior in one case, and in the other, let's go with policy".

If the player is someone who is likely to be investigated in general, or due to strong town vibes in DP1, then claiming is much more prudent. Someone like me should very much consider SOP claiming miller DP1, while someone like XLAV or Yama should not.

A miller claim gives up one role to mafia, and aids PoE for power roles and manipulation targets.
My work here is, finally, done.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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7/22/2015 12:31:55 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
Keeping in mind the miller is liability ONLY if they are investigated by a cop, and if the player plays pro-town, there is no need for the cop to investigate said player.
My work here is, finally, done.
XLAV
Posts: 13,719
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7/22/2015 12:33:14 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/22/2015 12:31:55 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
Keeping in mind the miller is liability ONLY if they are investigated by a cop, and if the player plays pro-town, there is no need for the cop to investigate said player.

Thats what I did, but I still got cop'd by a noob, lol.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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7/22/2015 12:48:46 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/22/2015 12:33:14 PM, XLAV wrote:
At 7/22/2015 12:31:55 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
Keeping in mind the miller is liability ONLY if they are investigated by a cop, and if the player plays pro-town, there is no need for the cop to investigate said player.

Thats what I did, but I still got cop'd by a noob, lol.

First, I shouldn't say pro-town, but plays to their town meta.
Second, sub par play is sub par play.
My work here is, finally, done.
XLAV
Posts: 13,719
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7/22/2015 12:52:32 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
I'd say Miller should be an SOP claim is most cases, but it shouldn't be a policy lynch.

Khaos does has a good point that players that have good strong vibes in DP1 shouldn't claim since the likeliness of a cop to cop them is low. However, we should also take in to account the experience of whoever gets the cop role. The problem with making people who have strong town vibes skip POE, is the cop. Who's the cop? Is the cop good or bad at reading people? Who knows.

The game that I mentioned where I didn't claim Miller in DP1, but got cop'd in NP1 is a good example. If it weren't for FT or a few good other peeps, I would have been lynch. The person who cop'd me was a noob (I think) who thought I was scum in DP1, despite being town read by the majority.

That experience made me pro-miller SOP claim. There are some good things when it comes to SOP claiming miller. For one, you will most likely be at the bottom of the list of the mafia's kill list. Another is, you won't waste a cop's role.

Even though SOP has some cons, like giving mafia lesser targets for hitting potential power roles. The pros out weight the cons. There may be some exceptions in some games, but most of the time, I'd say SOP claim Miller.
Khaos_Mage
Posts: 23,214
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7/22/2015 12:58:29 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/22/2015 12:52:32 PM, XLAV wrote:
I still and forever stand by my "lynch all town liabilities DP1 if there is nothing better" policy.
My work here is, finally, done.
TUF
Posts: 21,310
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7/22/2015 4:36:20 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/22/2015 12:28:23 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
I disagree with SOP miller claims. It aids the mafia much more than aids the town, and, frankly, it depends on the timing, as the later the miller is claimed (i.e. depends on how active the player pool is relative to the miller) the more suspect the claim.

My defense is this: if we don't care about cop results when we lynch cleared innocents due to lawyers and godfathers, then we shouldn't SOP lynch a guilty cop result, either. It is hypocritical to say "well, we'll analyze behavior in one case, and in the other, let's go with policy".

If the player is someone who is likely to be investigated in general, or due to strong town vibes in DP1, then claiming is much more prudent. Someone like me should very much consider SOP claiming miller DP1, while someone like XLAV or Yama should not.

A miller claim gives up one role to mafia, and aids PoE for power roles and manipulation targets.

I'll admit, you do have a point about the cop results hypocrisy thing.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
TUF
Posts: 21,310
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7/22/2015 4:37:39 PM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/22/2015 12:58:29 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 7/22/2015 12:52:32 PM, XLAV wrote:
I still and forever stand by my "lynch all town liabilities DP1 if there is nothing better" policy.

I tried doing this to Yama, and almost got lynched for it myself. Wish you were there to help me not sound so crazy.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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7/23/2015 4:35:14 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
Millers should not claim DP1, and they should be SOP lynched if they do in my opinion. The Miller is a common fake claim for mafia and there really is very little advantage to claiming it DP1.

I think Ideally you should try to get NKed with that role. If there is a cop and say 15 players you have less than a 15% chance of getting investigated, so no big chance of a mislynch as a result of that. As long as you don't come across as scummy, you should hold off on claiming it, until it's time for a mass claim or something.
YamaVonKarma
Posts: 7,570
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7/23/2015 8:16:31 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/22/2015 4:37:39 PM, TUF wrote:
At 7/22/2015 12:58:29 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 7/22/2015 12:52:32 PM, XLAV wrote:
I still and forever stand by my "lynch all town liabilities DP1 if there is nothing better" policy.

I tried doing this to Yama, and almost got lynched for it myself. Wish you were there to help me not sound so crazy.

We had better, we had you.
People who I've called as mafia DP1:
TUF, and YYW
TUF
Posts: 21,310
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7/23/2015 8:21:43 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/23/2015 8:16:31 AM, YamaVonKarma wrote:
At 7/22/2015 4:37:39 PM, TUF wrote:
At 7/22/2015 12:58:29 PM, Khaos_Mage wrote:
At 7/22/2015 12:52:32 PM, XLAV wrote:
I still and forever stand by my "lynch all town liabilities DP1 if there is nothing better" policy.

I tried doing this to Yama, and almost got lynched for it myself. Wish you were there to help me not sound so crazy.

We had better, we had you.

I'm flattered.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
TUF
Posts: 21,310
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7/23/2015 8:26:25 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/23/2015 4:35:14 AM, Wylted wrote:
Millers should not claim DP1, and they should be SOP lynched if they do in my opinion. The Miller is a common fake claim for mafia and there really is very little advantage to claiming it DP1.

I think Ideally you should try to get NKed with that role. If there is a cop and say 15 players you have less than a 15% chance of getting investigated, so no big chance of a mislynch as a result of that. As long as you don't come across as scummy, you should hold off on claiming it, until it's time for a mass claim or something.

I agree with most of this except for the "They should be SOP lynched if they do" part. Especially when many people accept the standard as it is that millers should SOP claim and if they don't, they should be lynched. When a majority of people believe one thing, even if you dis-agree with that way, you still have to follow suit with it or be lynched.

And be honest here: If someone copped a guilty result on someone who later outted that they were miller, would you be likely to believe the miller claim or think that it is scum using an excuse out of a guilty result?
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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7/23/2015 9:44:44 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/23/2015 8:26:25 AM, TUF wrote:
At 7/23/2015 4:35:14 AM, Wylted wrote:
Millers should not claim DP1, and they should be SOP lynched if they do in my opinion. The Miller is a common fake claim for mafia and there really is very little advantage to claiming it DP1.

I think Ideally you should try to get NKed with that role. If there is a cop and say 15 players you have less than a 15% chance of getting investigated, so no big chance of a mislynch as a result of that. As long as you don't come across as scummy, you should hold off on claiming it, until it's time for a mass claim or something.

I agree with most of this except for the "They should be SOP lynched if they do" part. Especially when many people accept the standard as it is that millers should SOP claim and if they don't, they should be lynched. When a majority of people believe one thing, even if you dis-agree with that way, you still have to follow suit with it or be lynched.

And be honest here: If someone copped a guilty result on someone who later outted that they were miller, would you be likely to believe the miller claim or think that it is scum using an excuse out of a guilty result?

I don't think that the miller claim should be automatically believed if people stop claiming it as SOP and then get copped. I think they should be looked at with a lot Of suspicion. I agree with you about the beliefs of others dictating your play to a certain extent. When SOP is to lynch late miller claims it makes the route I suggested higher risk, and players that tend to get mis lynched should probably claim it right away.

I'm not going to claim Miller DP1 though, unless a lot of attention is on me, and it will likely be late into DP1. It's a risk I'm willing to take, but I think is a positive game. As it is now, claiming and not claiming Miller are probably close in expectation (if thinking mathematically), but my gut tells me the not claiming is slightly better positive expectations for me personally, and I try to talk about my personal philosophy on Millers as much as possible, so peopl know not to just insta lynch me when they know I'm playing in accordance with my philosophy.
TUF
Posts: 21,310
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7/23/2015 11:12:43 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/23/2015 9:44:44 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/23/2015 8:26:25 AM, TUF wrote:
At 7/23/2015 4:35:14 AM, Wylted wrote:
Millers should not claim DP1, and they should be SOP lynched if they do in my opinion. The Miller is a common fake claim for mafia and there really is very little advantage to claiming it DP1.

I think Ideally you should try to get NKed with that role. If there is a cop and say 15 players you have less than a 15% chance of getting investigated, so no big chance of a mislynch as a result of that. As long as you don't come across as scummy, you should hold off on claiming it, until it's time for a mass claim or something.

I agree with most of this except for the "They should be SOP lynched if they do" part. Especially when many people accept the standard as it is that millers should SOP claim and if they don't, they should be lynched. When a majority of people believe one thing, even if you dis-agree with that way, you still have to follow suit with it or be lynched.

And be honest here: If someone copped a guilty result on someone who later outted that they were miller, would you be likely to believe the miller claim or think that it is scum using an excuse out of a guilty result?

I don't think that the miller claim should be automatically believed if people stop claiming it as SOP and then get copped. I think they should be looked at with a lot Of suspicion. I agree with you about the beliefs of others dictating your play to a certain extent. When SOP is to lynch late miller claims it makes the route I suggested higher risk, and players that tend to get mis lynched should probably claim it right away.

I don't think miller claim's should automatically be believed either, but I also don't think they deserve a higher standard of suspicion. Miller claim is relatively easy to prove through means other than a cop. Watcher or tracker can prove easily that this person is not visiting people at night, and you can judge the player's behavior to see how it coordinates with their claim. My point is that miller claims should be null, though it depends on the context of the game.

I'm not going to claim Miller DP1 though, unless a lot of attention is on me, and it will likely be late into DP1. It's a risk I'm willing to take, but I think is a positive game. As it is now, claiming and not claiming Miller are probably close in expectation (if thinking mathematically), but my gut tells me the not claiming is slightly better positive expectations for me personally, and I try to talk about my personal philosophy on Millers as much as possible, so people know not to just insta lynch me when they know I'm playing in accordance with my philosophy.

I think millers should in the very least leave some vague soft claim about it that they can refer to later when they do reveal.
"I've got to go and grab a shirt" ~ Airmax1227
Wylted
Posts: 21,167
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7/23/2015 11:44:21 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/23/2015 11:12:43 AM, TUF wrote:
At 7/23/2015 9:44:44 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/23/2015 8:26:25 AM, TUF wrote:
At 7/23/2015 4:35:14 AM, Wylted wrote:
Millers should not claim DP1, and they should be SOP lynched if they do in my opinion. The Miller is a common fake claim for mafia and there really is very little advantage to claiming it DP1.

I think Ideally you should try to get NKed with that role. If there is a cop and say 15 players you have less than a 15% chance of getting investigated, so no big chance of a mislynch as a result of that. As long as you don't come across as scummy, you should hold off on claiming it, until it's time for a mass claim or something.

I agree with most of this except for the "They should be SOP lynched if they do" part. Especially when many people accept the standard as it is that millers should SOP claim and if they don't, they should be lynched. When a majority of people believe one thing, even if you dis-agree with that way, you still have to follow suit with it or be lynched.

And be honest here: If someone copped a guilty result on someone who later outted that they were miller, would you be likely to believe the miller claim or think that it is scum using an excuse out of a guilty result?

I don't think that the miller claim should be automatically believed if people stop claiming it as SOP and then get copped. I think they should be looked at with a lot Of suspicion. I agree with you about the beliefs of others dictating your play to a certain extent. When SOP is to lynch late miller claims it makes the route I suggested higher risk, and players that tend to get mis lynched should probably claim it right away.

I don't think miller claim's should automatically be believed either, but I also don't think they deserve a higher standard of suspicion. Miller claim is relatively easy to prove through means other than a cop. Watcher or tracker can prove easily that this person is not visiting people at night, and you can judge the player's behavior to see how it coordinates with their claim. My point is that miller claims should be null, though it depends on the context of the game.

I'm not going to claim Miller DP1 though, unless a lot of attention is on me, and it will likely be late into DP1. It's a risk I'm willing to take, but I think is a positive game. As it is now, claiming and not claiming Miller are probably close in expectation (if thinking mathematically), but my gut tells me the not claiming is slightly better positive expectations for me personally, and I try to talk about my personal philosophy on Millers as much as possible, so people know not to just insta lynch me when they know I'm playing in accordance with my philosophy.

I think millers should in the very least leave some vague soft claim about it that they can refer to later when they do reveal.

That's a good ideal.
XLAV
Posts: 13,719
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7/23/2015 11:46:16 AM
Posted: 1 year ago
At 7/23/2015 11:44:21 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/23/2015 11:12:43 AM, TUF wrote:
At 7/23/2015 9:44:44 AM, Wylted wrote:
At 7/23/2015 8:26:25 AM, TUF wrote:
At 7/23/2015 4:35:14 AM, Wylted wrote:
Millers should not claim DP1, and they should be SOP lynched if they do in my opinion. The Miller is a common fake claim for mafia and there really is very little advantage to claiming it DP1.

I think Ideally you should try to get NKed with that role. If there is a cop and say 15 players you have less than a 15% chance of getting investigated, so no big chance of a mislynch as a result of that. As long as you don't come across as scummy, you should hold off on claiming it, until it's time for a mass claim or something.

I agree with most of this except for the "They should be SOP lynched if they do" part. Especially when many people accept the standard as it is that millers should SOP claim and if they don't, they should be lynched. When a majority of people believe one thing, even if you dis-agree with that way, you still have to follow suit with it or be lynched.

And be honest here: If someone copped a guilty result on someone who later outted that they were miller, would you be likely to believe the miller claim or think that it is scum using an excuse out of a guilty result?

I don't think that the miller claim should be automatically believed if people stop claiming it as SOP and then get copped. I think they should be looked at with a lot Of suspicion. I agree with you about the beliefs of others dictating your play to a certain extent. When SOP is to lynch late miller claims it makes the route I suggested higher risk, and players that tend to get mis lynched should probably claim it right away.

I don't think miller claim's should automatically be believed either, but I also don't think they deserve a higher standard of suspicion. Miller claim is relatively easy to prove through means other than a cop. Watcher or tracker can prove easily that this person is not visiting people at night, and you can judge the player's behavior to see how it coordinates with their claim. My point is that miller claims should be null, though it depends on the context of the game.

I'm not going to claim Miller DP1 though, unless a lot of attention is on me, and it will likely be late into DP1. It's a risk I'm willing to take, but I think is a positive game. As it is now, claiming and not claiming Miller are probably close in expectation (if thinking mathematically), but my gut tells me the not claiming is slightly better positive expectations for me personally, and I try to talk about my personal philosophy on Millers as much as possible, so people know not to just insta lynch me when they know I'm playing in accordance with my philosophy.

I think millers should in the very least leave some vague soft claim about it that they can refer to later when they do reveal.

That's a good ideal.

I agree.
That's another thing the saved my @ss in that game besides FT.