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Beginners' Mafia 46.1 DP3

Vaarka
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5/18/2016 1:54:45 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
*calmly walks in, sipping sprite from a can with a bendy straw*
*plops down and opens DDO*
*After checking a few posts, I feel like I'm forgetting something*
"....aw shiiiiiiiiii-"


DIED IN THE NIGHT

Valkrin - You are a Vanilla. You have no special abilities. You win with the Town.

GRAVEYARD

Fire - Vanilla - Town
Famous - Vanilla - Town
Valkrin - Vanilla - Town
Mb8 - Jailkeeper - Town

LIVING PLAYERS

1. Opsianos
2. MattTheDreamer
3. Kescarte_DeJudica
4. Dragon_of_Christ
5. Roukezian

With 5 players alive, it takes 3 votes to lynch.
The DP ends in 72 hours, or at 10:00 pm, EST, on 5/20/16
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
Kescarte_DeJudica
Posts: 183
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5/18/2016 2:37:58 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
Yesterday, was a sad day in Town history. I thought we had the perfect lead, and like Roukezian said, we had already won unofficially. However, this was not the case, and the chances of town pulling out of this are extremely slim.

I don't doubt that many of you want to lynch me because of the results. But before you do, please consider two things:

1. If we mess up the lynch one more time, we'll lose automatically. The mafia will kill another townie during the night, and the sides will be equal, which means they win. Therefore, it is crucial that this next lynch is correct.

2. I didn't know for certain missbailey8 was the mafia. And I originally didn't even think that it was likely based on my tracking results, until she said she had jailed Dragon. Then, I realized she was lying, because she had visited famous. That made it way too big a coincidence to ignore. It was all but certain. And now, I still don't understand it. She was obviously telling the truth when she said she was the jailer, but why did she say she visited Dragon when she really visited famous? That doesn't make any sense. And why didn't she come out and defend herself when we all rushed to lynch her?

Look guys, I know my story sounds like it has a lot of holes in it. But we can't just all go out and lynch someone immediately again. We've been doing that the entire game, and look where it has gotten us. I'm not trying to put the blame on everyone else, I'm as guilty as the rest of you. But I say it's time we do something different. Let's go through the entire history of the game. Let's ask one another direct questions, and let's receive direct answers, and by doing this, we'll get to the bottom of this or die trying (quite literally I might add).

Allow me to ask the first question: Roukezian, you told us you had an "Easter egg" from the first day phase that you would reveal in this one. Pray tell, what is that piece of information?
I'm not sure what to put here yet. Someone please give me some suggestions.
Opsianos
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5/18/2016 2:47:49 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 2:37:58 AM, Kescarte_DeJudica wrote:
I have no idea what the f*ck (for sake of decency) happened yesterday, but what's your role again?
Have no regrets.
Opsianos
Posts: 1,155
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5/18/2016 2:48:20 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 2:37:58 AM, Kescarte_DeJudica wrote:
2. I didn't know for certain missbailey8 was the mafia. And I originally didn't even think that it was likely based on my tracking results, until she said she had jailed Dragon. Then, I realized she was lying, because she had visited famous. That made it way too big a coincidence to ignore. It was all but certain. And now, I still don't understand it. She was obviously telling the truth when she said she was the jailer, but why did she say she visited Dragon when she really visited famous? That doesn't make any sense. And why didn't she come out and defend herself when we all rushed to lynch her?

Wait, so you're Tracker then, I'm assuming.
Have no regrets.
Dragon_of_Christ
Posts: 1,293
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5/18/2016 2:49:06 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
I HAVE BEEN SUSPICIOUS ROUK IS SCUM FOR 2 DPS.

He is next.
Jesus loves you.

////////////

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http://tinyurl.com...

Stupid atheist remarks #: 6
MattTheDreamer
Posts: 1,394
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5/18/2016 11:24:28 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 2:37:58 AM, Kescarte_DeJudica wrote:

One thing. You cannot be tracker. The Matrix 6 set up means that it is impossible for you to be tracker while MB8 is Jail keeper. This means you lied about your role.

Another thing. You also lied about her target NP1. It is impossible that she could've have been a jail keeper as her target was famous. Yet he was dead DP2. The role description for Jailkeeper as per the set up is "Each night you may select a player. This player will be protected from lethal actions but will also be prevented from using their own action, if any, during that night. This includes the mafia"s night kill. You may not self-target. You win with the Town."

This means Famous would have survived NP1 and not died as we saw here. The only conclusion we can make therefore is that you lied about both your role and MB8's target. Your story is not just filled with holes, it is literally impossible.

So here's a direct question. Are you maf? And if you say no then you have to give a very convincing explanation for why you're not. Last day I was too hasty, i'll admit but right now it seems very clear cut to me.
MattTheDreamer
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5/18/2016 11:25:38 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 2:49:06 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
I HAVE BEEN SUSPICIOUS ROUK IS SCUM FOR 2 DPS.

He is next.

Honestly the way Rouk pushed for MB8's lynch really makes me suspect him. Also he owes Valkrin $50.
Dragon_of_Christ
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5/18/2016 11:29:21 AM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 11:25:38 AM, MattTheDreamer wrote:
At 5/18/2016 2:49:06 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
I HAVE BEEN SUSPICIOUS ROUK IS SCUM FOR 2 DPS.

He is next.

Honestly the way Rouk pushed for MB8's lynch really makes me suspect him. Also he owes Valkrin $50.

In DP1 he litterally begged for us not to lynch fire.

Then the next he just conformed and somehow we all lynched the next dude.

Scum to me.
Jesus loves you.

////////////

-Funny Links-
http://tinyurl.com...
http://tinyurl.com...

Stupid atheist remarks #: 6
Kescarte_DeJudica
Posts: 183
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5/18/2016 12:35:26 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 11:29:21 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
At 5/18/2016 11:25:38 AM, MattTheDreamer wrote:
At 5/18/2016 2:49:06 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
I HAVE BEEN SUSPICIOUS ROUK IS SCUM FOR 2 DPS.

He is next.

Honestly the way Rouk pushed for MB8's lynch really makes me suspect him. Also he owes Valkrin $50.

In DP1 he litterally begged for us not to lynch fire.

Then the next he just conformed and somehow we all lynched the next dude.

Scum to me.

Dragon, if you are suspicious of Roukezian please provide a concise, clear argument for your suspicions, in numeric order
I'm not sure what to put here yet. Someone please give me some suggestions.
Kescarte_DeJudica
Posts: 183
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5/18/2016 12:57:29 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 11:24:28 AM, MattTheDreamer wrote:
At 5/18/2016 2:37:58 AM, Kescarte_DeJudica wrote:

One thing. You cannot be tracker. The Matrix 6 set up means that it is impossible for you to be tracker while MB8 is Jail keeper. This means you lied about your role.

Another thing. You also lied about her target NP1. It is impossible that she could've have been a jail keeper as her target was famous. Yet he was dead DP2. The role description for Jailkeeper as per the set up is "Each night you may select a player. This player will be protected from lethal actions but will also be prevented from using their own action, if any, during that night. This includes the mafia"s night kill. You may not self-target. You win with the Town."

This means Famous would have survived NP1 and not died as we saw here. The only conclusion we can make therefore is that you lied about both your role and MB8's target. Your story is not just filled with holes, it is literally impossible.

So here's a direct question. Are you maf? And if you say no then you have to give a very convincing explanation for why you're not. Last day I was too hasty, i'll admit but right now it seems very clear cut to me.

No Matt, I am not the Mafia. And I am the tracker. But even though I didn't lie, I know this whole, very strange scenario is extremely hard to sort out. I do have a few theories, though.

First of all, MB8 really did visit famous. And why isn't he alive today? Well, the only conclusion, other than that I lied, is that mb8 was role blocked. This would mean that although she visited famous, and I tracked her and saw that she had, her role was rendered ineffective. Then, the Mafia killed him. True, this would be an awfully big coincidence, but it is possible.

Secondly, the roles and matrix 6 setup bit is a little harder to prove. And I couldn't figure it out either, so I examined the chart MB8 posted the link to in DP2. I found only one possible, albeit unlikely, solution.

On the chart, you are supposed to pick from either a column or a row, at random, and assign the roles to the players specified in that role or column. That is what is done in a real matrix setup.

My theory is: this game is not a "real" matrix setup.

Instead, the moderaters have fudged on the rules, and instead of selecting a column or a row, they sort of selected both. They took the upper left-hand corner, and went to the right diagonally. Because if you assume this, then it is perfectly possible that MB8 was the jailer and I am the tracker.

That concludes my argument of defense. True, both scenarios don't really seem likely, but I'm that's the best explanation I've got.
I'm not sure what to put here yet. Someone please give me some suggestions.
Kescarte_DeJudica
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5/18/2016 1:01:03 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 11:29:21 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
At 5/18/2016 11:25:38 AM, MattTheDreamer wrote:
At 5/18/2016 2:49:06 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
I HAVE BEEN SUSPICIOUS ROUK IS SCUM FOR 2 DPS.

He is next.

Honestly the way Rouk pushed for MB8's lynch really makes me suspect him. Also he owes Valkrin $50.

In DP1 he litterally begged for us not to lynch fire.

Then the next he just conformed and somehow we all lynched the next dude.

Scum to me.

Actually, I'm rather suspicious of him myself. But I don't want to cast my vote until I am at least partially assured that he is the scum. Again, I think it would be best if we could talk things out a bit first, instead of going for the quick lynch.
I'm not sure what to put here yet. Someone please give me some suggestions.
Vaarka
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5/18/2016 1:05:26 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
VOTE COUNT

Rouke (1/3) - Dragon

Not voting: Opsi, Matt, Kescarte, Rouke

If you believe I have made a mistake, let me know and I will recount
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 1:26:26 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
VTL Kescartes

According to Matrix 6 columns (https://docs.google.com...), there cannot possibly be a jailkeeper and a Tracker, they're from different sets. Mb8 brought this point forward but I didn't read it, when I should have. If there is a Jailkeeper, there needs to be a Bulletproof and a Mafia Roleblocker. Kescartes stupidly lied to us when he shouldn't and got mb8 lynched. As when we lynch him this DP, Mafia will go down to 1, and so we can still win this if we figure out his partner.

Concerning my "Easter Egg," I will hold to that if not pressured. Kescarte has not provided any good reason on his false reading, but just apologized.
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 1:27:24 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 11:33:57 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
VTL Rouk

You're clearly Mafia. You just confirmed that as you've only been targeting me, regardless of any new happenings or evidence. But we'll be lynching your partner Kescartes and then investigating you further.
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 1:28:30 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 2:47:49 AM, Opsianos wrote:
At 5/18/2016 2:37:58 AM, Kescarte_DeJudica wrote:
I have no idea what the f*ck (for sake of decency) happened yesterday, but what's your role again?

Kescartes basically lied at an early stage that he visited Mb8 and realized she visited famous and not Dragon as she claimed. But she actually visited Dragon and was innocent. He is confirmed scum.
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 1:31:30 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 2:37:58 AM, Kescarte_DeJudica wrote:

Allow me to ask the first question: Roukezian, you told us you had an "Easter egg" from the first day phase that you would reveal in this one. Pray tell, what is that piece of information?

You cannot possibly be the "Tracker" when we have the Jailkeeper. You need to revise your scum tactics. Read this (https://docs.google.com...)

Moreover, Mb8 cannot possibly have lied. If she visited Famous, she would have role-blocked his kill as she was the Jailkeeper. If she was role-blocked, she wouldn't have visited anyone to begin this.

Please lynch Kescartes immediately. He tricked us once and shouldn't have as he exposed himself, he won't trick us again.
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 1:36:33 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 11:25:38 AM, MattTheDreamer wrote:
At 5/18/2016 2:49:06 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
I HAVE BEEN SUSPICIOUS ROUK IS SCUM FOR 2 DPS.

He is next.

Honestly the way Rouk pushed for MB8's lynch really makes me suspect him. Also he owes Valkrin $50.

I pushed aggressively for that lynch, as in the back of my head, Kescartes as Mafia wouldn't make a very noobish mistake such as claiming a false visit. He did, but it's okay. This gave him out.

I think his partner is Dragon as he is not even pressuring him or talking with him about it. But trying to move the suspicion to me.

Moreover, adding to what you said, according to this (https://docs.google.com...), it is impossible to have both a Tracker and a Jailkeeper. We know for sure we had a Jailkeeper, so the tracker claim is false.

We can take our time, but it is clear that Kescartes is scum. His story doesn't fit.
Dragon_of_Christ
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5/18/2016 1:38:32 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 1:27:24 PM, Roukezian wrote:
At 5/18/2016 11:33:57 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
VTL Rouk

You're clearly Mafia. You just confirmed that as you've only been targeting me, regardless of any new happenings or evidence. But we'll be lynching your partner Kescartes and then investigating you further.

I was pro kes too...

Not anymore.
Jesus loves you.

////////////

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http://tinyurl.com...

Stupid atheist remarks #: 6
Roukezian
Posts: 1,711
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5/18/2016 1:39:20 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
Plan ahead

1- We lynch Kescartes.

2- Mafia drops to 1. Town drops to 2(one person Nk-ed).

3- Next DP we all role-claim.

We still have a 72% (2/3) chance of winning this, thanks to Kescartes' mistake.
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 1:40:10 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 1:39:20 PM, Roukezian wrote:
Plan ahead

1- We lynch Kescartes.

2- Mafia drops to 1. Town drops to 2(one person Nk-ed).

3- Next DP we all role-claim.

We still have a 72% (2/3) chance of winning this, thanks to Kescartes' mistake.

I meant 66.6%.
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 1:40:56 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 1:38:32 PM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
At 5/18/2016 1:27:24 PM, Roukezian wrote:
At 5/18/2016 11:33:57 AM, Dragon_of_Christ wrote:
VTL Rouk

You're clearly Mafia. You just confirmed that as you've only been targeting me, regardless of any new happenings or evidence. But we'll be lynching your partner Kescartes and then investigating you further.

I was pro kes too...

Not anymore.

Take your time to investigate him further, then. Direct questions toward him so you don't look like his partner.
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 1:44:29 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 2:48:20 AM, Opsianos wrote:
Wait, so you're Tracker then, I'm assuming.

He can't be the Tracker if she was the Jailkeeper (https://docs.google.com...)
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 1:52:25 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
To make things easier, it makes sense for me to role-claim as they have a role-blocker, anyway. So my role won't be of any use.

I am the One Shot Bulletproof. In Dp1, I left a hint (easter egg) in response to Dragon, saying something along the lines of, "I will gladly take the Bullet. You keep accusing Fire_Wings without any Proof." I capitalized both bullet and proof, I can dig up the post if this is questioned. My bet is that they're keeping me alive as they think they can push some of the suspicion on me, so it makes sense to f*ck their plan up even more, even when my role is useless given the presence of the roleblocker.

Now here is where--I--fucked up. And you can blame me in the Endgame for it. When I was deciding on whether Kescartes was a Tracker or Mb8 was a Jailkeeper, I didn't read the Matrix 6(https://docs.google.com...) and see that the bulletproof (myself) is on the same column with Mb8. I actually assumed the opposite based on memory and thought Bulletproof and Tracker came together. This cost us a wrong lynch and so I apologize but I haven't played Mafia for a while and my memory is not so good.
Vaarka
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5/18/2016 1:53:47 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
VOTE COUNT

Rouke (1/3) - Dragon
Kescarte (1/3) - Rouke

Not voting: Opsi, Matt, Kescarte

If you believe I have made a mistake, let me know and I will recount
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
Roukezian
Posts: 1,711
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5/18/2016 2:02:10 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
In any way, Mafia might think they're winning or that they're smart, they're just a noobish scum team. And we have a chance of winning this. This DP is easy, we just need to lynch Kescartes. But the next is more difficult. We need to figure out the partner, I might be dead by then, so I hope whoever is town does figure it out.

I know for sure that all other Townies are vanillas, so it's a number game.

After we lynch Kescartes, the players would be:

Ops
Roukezian
Mat
Dragon

Then the scum will NK one and so there will be a 1/3 chance to get Scum. I was wrong about my 66.6% figure. It's 33.3% chances of winning.
Roukezian
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5/18/2016 2:08:50 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
I just realized, if Kescartes is the role-blocker, then lynching him this DP ensures my survival in the next as I'm bullet-proof, if I didn't claim, there is a chance that I might be NK-ed by mistake, but I don't think so, as I would be considered suspicious enough to be left for the end of the DP due to my mistake last DP.

So I can almost ascertain that I'd be in the last DP, and that there would be another DP, if we get rid of Kescartes.
Kescarte_DeJudica
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5/18/2016 2:20:00 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
At 5/18/2016 1:44:29 PM, Roukezian wrote:
At 5/18/2016 2:48:20 AM, Opsianos wrote:
Wait, so you're Tracker then, I'm assuming.

He can't be the Tracker if she was the Jailkeeper (https://docs.google.com...)

I already explained, the moderators set this up so that it is not a "real" matrix 6 setup. As for you claiming the one shot bulletproof, that is a lie. You've been the hardest pressuring of all of us for a lynch every single day phase. You've been the one to rally the troops, and you've killed anyone on the slightest bit of evidence, whether it be fire, mb8, or me. I think I can safely say now that you have onvinced me you're the true scum. And I think for once, when we're not going along with your ideas, we might just finally get somewhere.

VTL Roukezian
I'm not sure what to put here yet. Someone please give me some suggestions.
Vaarka
Posts: 7,527
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5/18/2016 2:22:58 PM
Posted: 6 months ago
VOTE COUNT

Rouke (2/3) - Dragon, Kescarte
Kescarte (1/3) - Rouke

Not voting: Opsi, Matt

If you believe I have made a mistake, let me know and I will recount
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya