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Beginner Mafia Game Day Phase 2

wamba
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1/4/2011 1:13:42 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Active Players

1. OreEle
2. gavin.ogden
3. M.Torres
4. bluesteel
5. Charr

Dead Players:

1. JKenyon - townie - killed by the mafia on night phase 1
2. Annhasle - Townie - lynched day phase 1

Same rules apply, begin the game
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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1/4/2011 1:16:40 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
A few notes:

M.Torres is exonerated of any suspicion because he didn't log on until just now and wamba posted right now (remember wamba's rule about us all logging on). So M.Torres had NO time to confirm the night kill.

Note 2: if a townie nominates another townie, the game will end because both mafia will jump on board the vote (with no risk cuz the game ends).

Lastly, really sorry annhasle, if you're reading this. I really thought it was you or I wouldn't have been so adamant. That really sucks.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 1:21:01 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 1:19:02 AM, wamba wrote:
15 minutes is not enough time to say "Kill ___"?

No it is not. >=P
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 1:21:12 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 1:19:02 AM, wamba wrote:
15 minutes is not enough time to say "Kill ___"?

lol, I didn't know you were allowed to participate... I guess you're right. But I don't think you'd call me out like that if I was mafia because you'd know I was bluffing. Thanks wamba.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 1:22:15 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 1:16:40 AM, bluesteel wrote:
A few notes:

M.Torres is exonerated of any suspicion because he didn't log on until just now and wamba posted right now (remember wamba's rule about us all logging on). So M.Torres had NO time to confirm the night kill.

Note 2: if a townie nominates another townie, the game will end because both mafia will jump on board the vote (with no risk cuz the game ends).

Lastly, really sorry annhasle, if you're reading this. I really thought it was you or I wouldn't have been so adamant. That really sucks.

fyi, I didn't mean nominates, I meant votes for, so be careful about starting votes during this day phase, cuz one single wrong vote could end the game. We can't start votes just to apply pressure anymore.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 1:24:02 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
This sucks. Sucks sucks sucks sucks sucks.

Bluesteel, whether or not you're Mafia, I hope you know you're back under the radar now. There is NO WAY you can lead that lynch and NOT be suspected now.

And I'm pissed. Everyone ended up VTLing Ann. What's with that?! I guess the order of votes will be important in finding Mafia?

At least the good news... Chances of lynching Mafia are 40%.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 1:25:44 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 1:22:15 AM, bluesteel wrote:
At 1/4/2011 1:16:40 AM, bluesteel wrote:
A few notes:

M.Torres is exonerated of any suspicion because he didn't log on until just now and wamba posted right now (remember wamba's rule about us all logging on). So M.Torres had NO time to confirm the night kill.

Note 2: if a townie nominates another townie, the game will end because both mafia will jump on board the vote (with no risk cuz the game ends).

Lastly, really sorry annhasle, if you're reading this. I really thought it was you or I wouldn't have been so adamant. That really sucks.

fyi, I didn't mean nominates, I meant votes for, so be careful about starting votes during this day phase, cuz one single wrong vote could end the game. We can't start votes just to apply pressure anymore.

Yeah! Hell, I can't even VTNL anymore!! This sucks. >=(
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
bluesteel
Posts: 12,301
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1/4/2011 1:32:39 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 1:24:02 AM, M.Torres wrote:
This sucks. Sucks sucks sucks sucks sucks.

Bluesteel, whether or not you're Mafia, I hope you know you're back under the radar now. There is NO WAY you can lead that lynch and NOT be suspected now.

Yeah I know. It'd be ridiculous for you not to suspect me. At the same time, don't give in to the "curse of knowledge" (hindsight is different than present sight). At the time, I really believed my own evidence against her and thought I kept finding new evidence/suspicious behavior. It's weird that I acted in good faith, but somehow something I couldn't control (i.e. whether annhasle was or wasn't mafia) either exonerates me or makes me look guilty. You have to admit that a lot of her behavior was really suspicious, and it was tough since she hadn't played much before, so there wasn't much evidence to exonerate her.

I was definitely the most disappointed out of all of us when I was wrong. But whatever, you can't believe me. Just for the record.

And wamba's recent mistake was pretty funny. If he knew I was mafia, why would he contradict me? He would know it was a trick of some sort.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 1:41:00 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 1:24:02 AM, M.Torres wrote:

And I'm pissed. Everyone ended up VTLing Ann. What's with that?! I guess the order of votes will be important in finding Mafia?

Weird huh, but didn't you say you'd vote for her too?
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 1:44:23 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
wamba, can we assume that whatever team gavin.ogden is on was not punished for his late post?
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
wamba
Posts: 688
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1/4/2011 1:52:08 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 1:44:23 AM, bluesteel wrote:
wamba, can we assume that whatever team gavin.ogden is on was not punished for his late post?

It's a beginners game and wasn't a big deal so his team was not punished. In normal games teams are only punished after multiple infringements as in:

Player 1 - VTL John
Moderator - Day Phase over no posts
Player 1 - this sucks i can't believe John was townie, the doctor should protect me tonight
Moderator - Please no posts or there will be a penalty as stated above
Player 1 - Also the vig should kill Fred because he clearly is mafia
Moderator - Penalty for Player 1's team
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 1:55:22 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 1:41:00 AM, bluesteel wrote:
At 1/4/2011 1:24:02 AM, M.Torres wrote:

And I'm pissed. Everyone ended up VTLing Ann. What's with that?! I guess the order of votes will be important in finding Mafia?

Weird huh, but didn't you say you'd vote for her too?

I did not want to VTL Ann. I said I might, just to see what would happen in the NP. But ultimately, I wanted Charr to decide (by voicing why he would VTL or not). He did not. I did not want to be quick to VTL either.

Now the NP is done. With J.Kenyon out, I have no reasonable conclusions about who is Mafia, based on him being lynched. Seriously, I feel we're back to the beginning, because our two inactive players (from last game) are now out. Only, the stakes are higher this time.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 2:01:42 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
So OreEle cast the killing vote at 9:03:22 PM. Charr followed with a VTL at 9:04:46.

OreEle justified his VTL by stating he wanted to use the night kill as a clue. I originally thought Charr's quick vote after was to try and latch on before he was singled out. But Charr's vote is close enough to OreEle's that we can assume he was not aware of OreEle's post.

If you read his post, though, I think it's odd he went against his "replacement theory" so suddenly. He also states that the vote was specifically to throw off suspicion on him (since someone suggested Charr and Ann might be partners). Then he goes on to say OreEle and I are likely suspects, and my VTNL is suspicious.

Any insight on this? With two Mafia in the game, we STILL have to strongly consider not only who is Mafia, but also who would be Mafia TOGETHER.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 2:08:38 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Gah, it's late... But I still feel like I need to voice all my opinions now before I forget them...

Anyway... To the J.Kenyon killing. He came across to me as a pretty innocent guy last game. Not too accusatory, and not very suspicious. His behavior of agreeing with Bluesteel easily made me suspect the two as partners, but he ended up being Townie... So... I guess bluesteel can be strongly suspected, but in all reality, who would want to take out J.Kenyon? Was it just a random thing? I don't think it was to any real strategy or reason. More like a, "well, he's a townie so let's take him out just because it's a townie!" Right now I guess we have to think opponent wise. Bluesteel and I have been the most accusatory imo, so I think we were spared to avoid using OUR kills as clues.

Which means those we opposed most probably are Mafia (e.g., OreEle and Charr). I think this is because if Gavin, say, were Mafia, he would take us out to make Orele or Charr look guilty. However, this is NOT a solid theory. It needs more input.

This is, however, so far my insight involving J.Kenyon's night-time death. Feel free to read into it as you wish.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 2:12:01 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Here's my newest theory. The deductions are based on me and M.Torres not being mafia (dude, if he turns out to be mafia, I'm gonna be soo pissed). But anyway, M.Torres is exonerated in my mind because he unvoted me for no reason, even though I was really close to being lynched and because I think he recently logged on, wamba purposely waited 15 min, then posted the kill. I don't think M.Torres was part of it. He in theory could have confirmed (if mafia had already decided), but not further discussed (if discussion was necessary), the kill. So he's unlikely. Also, see recent evidence in my favor: wamba called me out on my theory, which he wouldn't do if he knew I was saying my theory just to screw with the townies.

I also think that it's unlikely that if gavin.ogden were mafia, he would be so intent on figuring out the game that he would naively post after the day phase was over. This evidence is weak, but it seems like someone who has more to lose would be more careful.

My newest theory on OreEle/Charr is that they coordinated in some way their "accidental" double-final vote on annhasle, so neither could be pinned with the guilt. That would be pretty smart.

I could be wrong though, but if I'm right about me (which obviously I know I am) and M.Torres, then 2 of the remaining 3 must be mafia, so it must be either OreEle, Charr, or both.

Personally, I'm more suspicious of Charr at this point. He needs to explain why he pushed so hard for annhasle's innocence, then proceeded to vote what he supposedly thought was the last vote on her, without much justification. At the time, his justification seemed to be that her innocence would exonerate him, which would be convenient if he were mafia. His original "replacement theory" showing it couldn't be annhasle would be an interesting mafia defense if she got lynched.

BUT, then again, it would be a weird theory to advance, since it would mean Kenyon and annhasle were not mafia. If Charr were mafia, that would narrow the field to be more likely to put suspicion on him. But I guess that could be useful, if he intended to kill one of them in the night phase, since it would point to his innocence. Actually, yeah, that would be really convenient.

Mafia (before annhasle logged on ever): "let's lynch annhasle since she's never been online, so she's the least suspicious (leaving only "suspicious" people makes getting a lynch vote easier later in the game)"
Charr: okay, I'm gonna advance a theory now though that it can't be her, so I can use that to point to my own innocence
other mafia: "okay"

But then when annhasle was about to be lynched (and it didn't seem they could get someone else) that was even more convenient, since they already wanted her dead, they could get another free kill.

Charr also has zero accusations, which would be expected from at least one mafia member, since they should try to fly under the radar the whole game.

Thoughts?
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 2:21:41 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 2:08:38 AM, M.Torres wrote:
Gah, it's late... But I still feel like I need to voice all my opinions now before I forget them...

Anyway... To the J.Kenyon killing. He came across to me as a pretty innocent guy last game. Not too accusatory, and not very suspicious. His behavior of agreeing with Bluesteel easily made me suspect the two as partners, but he ended up being Townie... So... I guess bluesteel can be strongly suspected, but in all reality, who would want to take out J.Kenyon? Was it just a random thing? I don't think it was to any real strategy or reason. More like a, "well, he's a townie so let's take him out just because it's a townie!" Right now I guess we have to think opponent wise. Bluesteel and I have been the most accusatory imo, so I think we were spared to avoid using OUR kills as clues.

I guess I didn't explain my explanation for why I'm pretty certain Kenyon was selected. Remember his first post? He quoted OreEle's vote for him and begged others not to vote for him, but he seemed completely unaware that there were actually THREE votes for him (which were on previous pages). It made me almost certain he wasn't mafia because 1) a mafia, with a partner PMing him, wouldn't be dumb enough to stay away for a full day - too much suspicion and 2) would know that 3 votes were against him - no need to quote someone who voted for you. So it seemed he FINALLY went to the last page, saw a vote for himself, and got dismayed. Thus, he was the most innocent looking.

The mafia need the guilty-looking to remain so they can convince townies to lynch each other.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 2:33:38 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
http://www.debate.org...

This is interesting. Following my original VTL against you, Charr and OreEle quickly hopped on board together (keep in mind Gavin had a VTL on you as well).
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 2:38:33 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 2:33:38 AM, M.Torres wrote:
http://www.debate.org...

This is interesting. Following my original VTL against you, Charr and OreEle quickly hopped on board together (keep in mind Gavin had a VTL on you as well).

And whoa whoa whoa. Even after VTLing, Charr rights a few posts later: "I propose we wait until Bluesteel gets a chance to defend himself. However, I don't mind either way."

Why would Charr advocate we wait for you to defend yourself if he already VTL'ed you?

Also, OreEle later claims the only reason he VTL'ed was to check my claim from earlier about unvoting. He then unvotes, and says this:

"Either way, mafia would target you now, because if they off you over the night, everyone will point at me, thus giving them a kill. If I was mafia, I would not target you because of the attention it would draw to me."

Any conclusions we can make from this? (just for everyone's sake, I am going to check all major voting stages for clues; be aware I am ONLY at the first bluesteel one, so all my thoughts only revolve on this time frame, so far.)
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 2:49:04 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
OreEle and Gavin have VTLed in every major lynch movement (bluesteel, J.Kenyon, and Ann).

I have also noticed... Charr's "replacement theory" seems more sincere as I go back and look at old posts. I think he may be a townie who legitimately believed this theory. And he was right. I mean... Come on. If he was really Mafia, he would have never put forward that theory. He could've VTl'ed J.Kenyon when there were three votes on him but didn't because of his theory. I think this points to innocence.

Also, I think we may be making a mistake in not suspecting Gavin. Like I said, it is VERY suspicious that he and OreEle VTL'ed in every major lynch movement. He was also quick to VTL throughout the entire DP1, regardless of how frequent he was on.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 2:49:30 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 2:33:38 AM, M.Torres wrote:
http://www.debate.org...

This is interesting. Following my original VTL against you, Charr and OreEle quickly hopped on board together (keep in mind Gavin had a VTL on you as well).

Hm, fyi, you're making us look suspicious by converging on Charr/OreEle so quickly. For the record, I was still writing my very long post when you posted your theory.

Also, I'm not sure if that evidence exonerates at least one of them, or makes them look guilty. It'd be dumb for them to act together in an obvious way. But it was also so early in the game that if the lynch happened, there would be no suspicion really cast on anyone (except maybe the initial accuser?). Who was the initial accuser? Was it gavin? I guess they could have blamed it on him.

Lol, checked back through the thread after typing the above - M.Torres you were the first vote for me. Forgot that. What was your justification for that again? Mixing things up? Cuz you did unvote me while others were trying to lynch before I even logged back online.

Looking back, I remember my old OreEle/gavin.ogden theory, which was OreEle told gavin to vote him to allay suspicion.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 2:50:50 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 2:49:04 AM, M.Torres wrote:
OreEle and Gavin have VTLed in every major lynch movement (bluesteel, J.Kenyon, and Ann).

lol, dude seriously, wtf
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 2:55:06 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 2:49:30 AM, bluesteel wrote:
At 1/4/2011 2:33:38 AM, M.Torres wrote:
http://www.debate.org...

This is interesting. Following my original VTL against you, Charr and OreEle quickly hopped on board together (keep in mind Gavin had a VTL on you as well).

Hm, fyi, you're making us look suspicious by converging on Charr/OreEle so quickly. For the record, I was still writing my very long post when you posted your theory.

Also, I'm not sure if that evidence exonerates at least one of them, or makes them look guilty. It'd be dumb for them to act together in an obvious way. But it was also so early in the game that if the lynch happened, there would be no suspicion really cast on anyone (except maybe the initial accuser?). Who was the initial accuser? Was it gavin? I guess they could have blamed it on him.

Lol, checked back through the thread after typing the above - M.Torres you were the first vote for me. Forgot that. What was your justification for that again? Mixing things up? Cuz you did unvote me while others were trying to lynch before I even logged back online.

Looking back, I remember my old OreEle/gavin.ogden theory, which was OreEle told gavin to vote him to allay suspicion.

I voted against you because you moved quickly against Gavin without voting against him. I thought it was suspicious at the time. Like, trying to band us together against him without looking suspicious yourself. Eventually, I rethought my strategy (with the whole VTNL thing) and looking back, your move was not suspicious. I realize this now, because people who ARE Mafia are more likely to VTL (I did not realize this entering the game).
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 2:55:48 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 2:50:50 AM, bluesteel wrote:
At 1/4/2011 2:49:04 AM, M.Torres wrote:
OreEle and Gavin have VTLed in every major lynch movement (bluesteel, J.Kenyon, and Ann).

lol, dude seriously, wtf

Is there confusion? I have merely stated a fact.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 2:56:40 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 2:50:50 AM, bluesteel wrote:
At 1/4/2011 2:49:04 AM, M.Torres wrote:
OreEle and Gavin have VTLed in every major lynch movement (bluesteel, J.Kenyon, and Ann).

lol, dude seriously, wtf

This is kind of making me doubt my "same time" theory, esp. since Charr's post was somewhat long, so he was likely still typing while OreEle posted. I guess they could have tried to coordinate their times, but this would have been hard. But it's still really random.

If this theory is wrong, it doesn't exonerate one or the other, but just them working together (so I guess it couldn't be both?). But I'm kind of wary still, since this would be a good gambit.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 2:59:22 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 1/4/2011 2:55:48 AM, M.Torres wrote:
At 1/4/2011 2:50:50 AM, bluesteel wrote:
At 1/4/2011 2:49:04 AM, M.Torres wrote:
OreEle and Gavin have VTLed in every major lynch movement (bluesteel, J.Kenyon, and Ann).

lol, dude seriously, wtf

Is there confusion? I have merely stated a fact.

No I meant, you type this and then again, while I'm still typing my post, I write about my old OreEle/gavin theory at the same time. It's just the same exact randomness that makes us look suspicious together. If I'm right about you, then the mafia will try to make it look like WE'RE working together and thus are the two mafia. We'd basically be competing with the two mafia to convince the one unaligned townie.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
bluesteel
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1/4/2011 3:00:51 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Ok enough, this is getting confusing. We need to hear from the other players. Although it'd still be nice M.Torres if you posted a play-by-play voting/accusation history from Day 1.
You can't reason someone out of a position they didn't reason themselves into - Jonathan Swift (paraphrase)
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 3:02:29 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
http://www.debate.org...

http://www.debate.org...

This is interesting I believe. Remember when we thought OreEle and Ann were working together? I pressured OreEle to VTL Ann to remove suspicion. If Ann was not Mafia, why would OreEle NOT have VTL'ed Ann (assuming he is Mafia)? This doesn't make sense to me. Ann had two VTL's, OreEle could've been the third, then bam. Her partner could have punched Ann out. It doesn't make sense!

If OreEle is Mafia, why did she not take out Ann???
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
M.Torres
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1/4/2011 3:12:24 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
http://www.debate.org...

On this page, Charr advocates prolonging the DP (just as I had earlier). It seems sincere, so this could point to Townie behavior. HOWEVER, it could also just be a cover. I'm not sure, it just stuck out to me.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.