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---Wildlife Mafia: DP4---

bsh1
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9/21/2016 10:39:28 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
LYNCHED LAST DP

Think - You are the HUMPBACK WHALE. Gregarious, you enjoy hanging out with other species and are incredibly friendly. You've mastered the arts of gladhanding and schmoozing. Therefore, you are the LOBBYIST. You votes in the DP count for two. You win with the town.

GRAVEYARD

Fire - Snow Leopard, Ascetic - Town
Solon - Meerkat, Guard - Town
7th - Zombie Fungus, Alien/Mind-controller - TP
Rouk - Grey Wolf, Tracker - Town
Smithers - Giant Panda, Popular - Town
Think - Humpback Whale, Lobbyist - Town

LIVING PLAYERS

Solon (Miss)
Voice
XLAV/Saph
Butter
Disc
Breaking
Vaar
Matt (Lannan)
Shab

With 9 players alive, it takes 4 votes to lynch.
The DP ends at 6:30pm, Eastern Time, on 9/24/16.


Good luck!
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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9/21/2016 10:39:53 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Attention

Solon has replaced in for Miss.

Matt has replaced in for Lannan.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

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Vaarka
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9/21/2016 10:55:29 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Just putting this out here, in case TB is still reading.

What you did last DP was very anti-town. I said I had slight suspicion, and DD had suspicion too, but neither of us were VTLing you. When you VTL'd yourself, it was practically a death sentence, especially when you were the first one to do it. Not only did you do that, but you encouraged us to do it as well.

Finally, putting the bill in the wallet, you looked like you had given up, like you were saying "GG guys, I tried, but you caught me," and even I, a player who didn't vote for you (I wasn't on), thought you were scum for it. While catching up, everything pointed towards you being scum that had simply given up, so when you flipped innocent, I actually had to read the flip a few times to make sure my eyes weren't just making it up. It was unbelievably anti-town play, and I hope you learn to take a lesson from this, noob or not.
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
bsh1
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9/21/2016 10:55:44 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
Attention

Just noticed a small mistake in the OP. Since the game now has fewer than 10 players, this and all future DPs will be 48 hours, and all future NPs will be 24 hours.

The DP ends at 6:30pm, EST, on the 23rd.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
SolonKR
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9/21/2016 10:57:33 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
I can't read through the game until tonight; I'll post thoughts then. For now, my bae was and I am the Echidna, and the miller.
SO to Bailey, the love of my life <3
Vaarka
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9/21/2016 11:20:19 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/21/2016 10:57:33 PM, SolonKR wrote:
I can't read through the game until tonight; I'll post thoughts then. For now, my bae was and I am the Echidna, and the miller.

Now, Solon could have easily gone and saw the first posts from Bailey, but in the case that he didn't, I find this more believable. Anyone else?
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
ShabShoral
Posts: 3,236
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9/21/2016 11:37:41 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/21/2016 10:57:33 PM, SolonKR wrote:
I can't read through the game until tonight; I'll post thoughts then. For now, my bae was and I am the Echidna, and the miller.

Please keep this filth out of the game, please.
"This site is trash as a debate site. It's club penguin for dysfunctional adults."

~ Skepsikyma <3

"Your idea of good writing is like Spinoza mixed with Heidegger."

~ Dylly Dylly Cat Cat

"You seem to aspire to be a cross between a Jewish hipster, an old school WASP aristocrat, and a political iconoclast"

~ Thett the Mighty

"fvck omg ur face"

~ Liz
ShabShoral
Posts: 3,236
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9/21/2016 11:38:22 PM
Posted: 2 months ago
So, the issue of Saph and Breaking...

Anyone have results that make a difference?
"This site is trash as a debate site. It's club penguin for dysfunctional adults."

~ Skepsikyma <3

"Your idea of good writing is like Spinoza mixed with Heidegger."

~ Dylly Dylly Cat Cat

"You seem to aspire to be a cross between a Jewish hipster, an old school WASP aristocrat, and a political iconoclast"

~ Thett the Mighty

"fvck omg ur face"

~ Liz
breakingamber
Posts: 1,422
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9/22/2016 12:00:11 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
I'm starting to think I'm insane.

Butters is guilty.

But first:

VTL XLApph
MAY THE WRATH OF THE MODS BE UPON YOU!
- Master Elodin

"When will [Obliteration] learn that Funtimes' plan of saving/destroying the world with pancakes is the only way? "
"She wouldn't even have to make real pancakes! Just the batter, and Obliteration could cook it with his powers! OBLITERATION, YOU'RE WASTING YOUR TALENTS"
- Voidus and TwiLyghtSansSparkles

"An Epic stage magician and a zombie dinosaur? She sure as Braize won"t pull the line there!"
- Edgedancer
ShabShoral
Posts: 3,236
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9/22/2016 12:03:07 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:00:11 AM, breakingamber wrote:
I'm starting to think I'm insane.

Butters is guilty.

But first:

VTL XLApph

Lol, two guilties in a row?

Why would you investigate Butters, anyway? Explain.
"This site is trash as a debate site. It's club penguin for dysfunctional adults."

~ Skepsikyma <3

"Your idea of good writing is like Spinoza mixed with Heidegger."

~ Dylly Dylly Cat Cat

"You seem to aspire to be a cross between a Jewish hipster, an old school WASP aristocrat, and a political iconoclast"

~ Thett the Mighty

"fvck omg ur face"

~ Liz
bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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9/22/2016 12:09:03 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
Attention

Because I can't math, I wrote that 4 instead of 5 votes were needed to lynch. It is 5 votes.
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

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bsh1
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9/22/2016 12:09:24 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
VOTE COUNT

XLAV/Saph (1/5) - Breaking
Live Long and Prosper

I'm a Bish.


"Twilight isn't just about obtuse metaphors between cannibalism and premarital sex, it also teaches us the futility of hope." - Raisor

"[Bsh1] is the Guinan of DDO." - ButterCatX

Follow the DDOlympics
: http://www.debate.org...

Open Debate Topics Project: http://www.debate.org...
Vaarka
Posts: 7,631
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9/22/2016 12:11:36 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:09:03 AM, bsh1 wrote:
Attention

Because I can't math, I wrote that 4 instead of 5 votes were needed to lynch. It is 5 votes.

Cmon bsh,
*slaps hands against each other between each word*
GET
WITH
THE
PROGRAM
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
XLAV
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9/22/2016 12:14:06 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/21/2016 10:55:29 PM, Vaarka wrote:
Just putting this out here, in case TB is still reading.

What you did last DP was very anti-town. I said I had slight suspicion, and DD had suspicion too, but neither of us were VTLing you. When you VTL'd yourself, it was practically a death sentence, especially when you were the first one to do it. Not only did you do that, but you encouraged us to do it as well.

Finally, putting the bill in the wallet, you looked like you had given up, like you were saying "GG guys, I tried, but you caught me," and even I, a player who didn't vote for you (I wasn't on), thought you were scum for it. While catching up, everything pointed towards you being scum that had simply given up, so when you flipped innocent, I actually had to read the flip a few times to make sure my eyes weren't just making it up. It was unbelievably anti-town play, and I hope you learn to take a lesson from this, noob or not.

Anti-town =/=Scum
Vaarka
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9/22/2016 12:14:34 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
So, regarding XLApphique and Breaking, I HIGHLY doubt that they are both scum, and I HIGHLY doubt they are both town, so one is lying and one is truthing. Unless something comes up, I'd say one of them should be our lynch target for today, at the very least to get information about which is lying.
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
Vaarka
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9/22/2016 12:15:26 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:14:06 AM, XLAV wrote:
At 9/21/2016 10:55:29 PM, Vaarka wrote:
Just putting this out here, in case TB is still reading.

What you did last DP was very anti-town. I said I had slight suspicion, and DD had suspicion too, but neither of us were VTLing you. When you VTL'd yourself, it was practically a death sentence, especially when you were the first one to do it. Not only did you do that, but you encouraged us to do it as well.

Finally, putting the bill in the wallet, you looked like you had given up, like you were saying "GG guys, I tried, but you caught me," and even I, a player who didn't vote for you (I wasn't on), thought you were scum for it. While catching up, everything pointed towards you being scum that had simply given up, so when you flipped innocent, I actually had to read the flip a few times to make sure my eyes weren't just making it up. It was unbelievably anti-town play, and I hope you learn to take a lesson from this, noob or not.

Anti-town =/=Scum

Yes, but his posts began to mirror what looked like scum giving up, so I thought he was scum for sure when catching up.
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
XLAV
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9/22/2016 12:16:34 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:14:34 AM, Vaarka wrote:
So, regarding XLApphique and Breaking, I HIGHLY doubt that they are both scum, and I HIGHLY doubt they are both town, so one is lying and one is truthing. Unless something comes up, I'd say one of them should be our lynch target for today, at the very least to get information about which is lying.

Can you explain to me how one is town and the other is scum when both are cop'd as guilty?
Vaarka
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9/22/2016 12:18:16 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:16:34 AM, XLAV wrote:
At 9/22/2016 12:14:34 AM, Vaarka wrote:
So, regarding XLApphique and Breaking, I HIGHLY doubt that they are both scum, and I HIGHLY doubt they are both town, so one is lying and one is truthing. Unless something comes up, I'd say one of them should be our lynch target for today, at the very least to get information about which is lying.

Can you explain to me how one is town and the other is scum when both are cop'd as guilty?

As far as I remember, only one was copped guilty, and that was you. Do you have information that says otherwise?
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
XLAV
Posts: 13,715
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9/22/2016 12:19:15 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:15:26 AM, Vaarka wrote:
At 9/22/2016 12:14:06 AM, XLAV wrote:
At 9/21/2016 10:55:29 PM, Vaarka wrote:
Just putting this out here, in case TB is still reading.

What you did last DP was very anti-town. I said I had slight suspicion, and DD had suspicion too, but neither of us were VTLing you. When you VTL'd yourself, it was practically a death sentence, especially when you were the first one to do it. Not only did you do that, but you encouraged us to do it as well.

Finally, putting the bill in the wallet, you looked like you had given up, like you were saying "GG guys, I tried, but you caught me," and even I, a player who didn't vote for you (I wasn't on), thought you were scum for it. While catching up, everything pointed towards you being scum that had simply given up, so when you flipped innocent, I actually had to read the flip a few times to make sure my eyes weren't just making it up. It was unbelievably anti-town play, and I hope you learn to take a lesson from this, noob or not.

Anti-town =/=Scum

Yes, but his posts began to mirror what looked like scum giving up, so I thought he was scum for sure when catching up.

Nah, lol.
Usually if it is scum giving up, they'd say they're scum. TB didn't. In fact TB did a town tell(the one where you thought it was a scum tell.) when he said "town is gonna lose". Like I said, I've only seen town do that.
breakingamber
Posts: 1,422
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9/22/2016 12:19:28 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/21/2016 11:38:22 PM, ShabShoral wrote:
So, the issue of Saph and Breaking...

Anyone have results that make a difference?

Vote XLApph
MAY THE WRATH OF THE MODS BE UPON YOU!
- Master Elodin

"When will [Obliteration] learn that Funtimes' plan of saving/destroying the world with pancakes is the only way? "
"She wouldn't even have to make real pancakes! Just the batter, and Obliteration could cook it with his powers! OBLITERATION, YOU'RE WASTING YOUR TALENTS"
- Voidus and TwiLyghtSansSparkles

"An Epic stage magician and a zombie dinosaur? She sure as Braize won"t pull the line there!"
- Edgedancer
XLAV
Posts: 13,715
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9/22/2016 12:20:13 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:18:16 AM, Vaarka wrote:
At 9/22/2016 12:16:34 AM, XLAV wrote:
At 9/22/2016 12:14:34 AM, Vaarka wrote:
So, regarding XLApphique and Breaking, I HIGHLY doubt that they are both scum, and I HIGHLY doubt they are both town, so one is lying and one is truthing. Unless something comes up, I'd say one of them should be our lynch target for today, at the very least to get information about which is lying.

Can you explain to me how one is town and the other is scum when both are cop'd as guilty?

As far as I remember, only one was copped guilty, and that was you. Do you have information that says otherwise?

Butter was copd guilty according to break.
breakingamber
Posts: 1,422
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9/22/2016 12:21:29 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
Lol, two guilties in a row?

Why would you investigate Butters, anyway? Explain.

He wanted to lynch me.

I'm starting to think my sanity is questionable, as I just got 2 guilties in a row, as Shab said. What are the chances?

So: I'll test myself. Vote XLApph.
MAY THE WRATH OF THE MODS BE UPON YOU!
- Master Elodin

"When will [Obliteration] learn that Funtimes' plan of saving/destroying the world with pancakes is the only way? "
"She wouldn't even have to make real pancakes! Just the batter, and Obliteration could cook it with his powers! OBLITERATION, YOU'RE WASTING YOUR TALENTS"
- Voidus and TwiLyghtSansSparkles

"An Epic stage magician and a zombie dinosaur? She sure as Braize won"t pull the line there!"
- Edgedancer
ShabShoral
Posts: 3,236
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9/22/2016 12:27:08 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:14:34 AM, Vaarka wrote:
So, regarding XLApphique and Breaking, I HIGHLY doubt that they are both scum, and I HIGHLY doubt they are both town, so one is lying and one is truthing. Unless something comes up, I'd say one of them should be our lynch target for today, at the very least to get information about which is lying.

It's POSSIBLE that both are scum. The thing is that, if we lynch Saph and she flips guilty, we have no way of telling if it was a bus or not - and it's a real possibility, considering the circumstances around Breaking's claim. Thus, we still would have to take a gamble on Breaking being town, and, since it's presumably near MYLO, if they ARE both scum and we take Saph's flip as a confirmation of Breaking being town, he would essentially just... win.

However, the second guilty result makes this much easier in my mind. Here's why lynching Breaking will win the game:

1. If Breaking is town, we have two confirmed mafiosos to get rid of consecutively, and there will be NO DOUBT in MYLO/LYLO scenarios.

2. If Breaking is scum, we know that one of these is true:

Saph is scum, Butters is scum;
Saph is scum, Butters is town;
Saph is town, Butters is town;
Saph is town, Butters is scum.

Now, consider that, if Breaking's guilty result was a last-minute attempt to save himself, two things are true: 1. He likely has a role worth going to great lengths to save, and 2. the guilty result would be ON a mafioso, so that the flip "confirms" Breaking's townness.

2. is incredibly important here. It means that, if Breaking is scum, Saph is likely scum too. We can determine whether this is the case or not through retroactive behavioural analysis once we know Breaking's flip.

Butters could be dealt with in the same way, but without the info that he was likely being bussed.

-----

BOTH of these scenarios will play out more favourably for town than the one in which we lynch Saph first, precisely because bussing would have made perfect sense given Breaking's wagon. Lynching Breaking first would give us a much better chance of lynching scum next DP and the DP after that, even if Breaking himself is innocent.

So, with that being said, VTL Breaking.
"This site is trash as a debate site. It's club penguin for dysfunctional adults."

~ Skepsikyma <3

"Your idea of good writing is like Spinoza mixed with Heidegger."

~ Dylly Dylly Cat Cat

"You seem to aspire to be a cross between a Jewish hipster, an old school WASP aristocrat, and a political iconoclast"

~ Thett the Mighty

"fvck omg ur face"

~ Liz
ShabShoral
Posts: 3,236
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9/22/2016 12:27:13 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:14:06 AM, XLAV wrote:
At 9/21/2016 10:55:29 PM, Vaarka wrote:
Just putting this out here, in case TB is still reading.

What you did last DP was very anti-town. I said I had slight suspicion, and DD had suspicion too, but neither of us were VTLing you. When you VTL'd yourself, it was practically a death sentence, especially when you were the first one to do it. Not only did you do that, but you encouraged us to do it as well.

Finally, putting the bill in the wallet, you looked like you had given up, like you were saying "GG guys, I tried, but you caught me," and even I, a player who didn't vote for you (I wasn't on), thought you were scum for it. While catching up, everything pointed towards you being scum that had simply given up, so when you flipped innocent, I actually had to read the flip a few times to make sure my eyes weren't just making it up. It was unbelievably anti-town play, and I hope you learn to take a lesson from this, noob or not.

Anti-town =/=Scum

besides the point
"This site is trash as a debate site. It's club penguin for dysfunctional adults."

~ Skepsikyma <3

"Your idea of good writing is like Spinoza mixed with Heidegger."

~ Dylly Dylly Cat Cat

"You seem to aspire to be a cross between a Jewish hipster, an old school WASP aristocrat, and a political iconoclast"

~ Thett the Mighty

"fvck omg ur face"

~ Liz
ShabShoral
Posts: 3,236
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9/22/2016 12:28:56 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:21:29 AM, breakingamber wrote:
Lol, two guilties in a row?

Why would you investigate Butters, anyway? Explain.

He wanted to lynch me.
I want to lynch you, and I'm essentially confirmed.
I'm starting to think my sanity is questionable, as I just got 2 guilties in a row, as Shab said. What are the chances?

So: I'll test myself. Vote XLApph.
No.
"This site is trash as a debate site. It's club penguin for dysfunctional adults."

~ Skepsikyma <3

"Your idea of good writing is like Spinoza mixed with Heidegger."

~ Dylly Dylly Cat Cat

"You seem to aspire to be a cross between a Jewish hipster, an old school WASP aristocrat, and a political iconoclast"

~ Thett the Mighty

"fvck omg ur face"

~ Liz
Vaarka
Posts: 7,631
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9/22/2016 12:29:37 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:19:15 AM, XLAV wrote:
At 9/22/2016 12:15:26 AM, Vaarka wrote:
At 9/22/2016 12:14:06 AM, XLAV wrote:
At 9/21/2016 10:55:29 PM, Vaarka wrote:
Just putting this out here, in case TB is still reading.

What you did last DP was very anti-town. I said I had slight suspicion, and DD had suspicion too, but neither of us were VTLing you. When you VTL'd yourself, it was practically a death sentence, especially when you were the first one to do it. Not only did you do that, but you encouraged us to do it as well.

Finally, putting the bill in the wallet, you looked like you had given up, like you were saying "GG guys, I tried, but you caught me," and even I, a player who didn't vote for you (I wasn't on), thought you were scum for it. While catching up, everything pointed towards you being scum that had simply given up, so when you flipped innocent, I actually had to read the flip a few times to make sure my eyes weren't just making it up. It was unbelievably anti-town play, and I hope you learn to take a lesson from this, noob or not.

Anti-town =/=Scum

Yes, but his posts began to mirror what looked like scum giving up, so I thought he was scum for sure when catching up.

Nah, lol.
Usually if it is scum giving up, they'd say they're scum. TB didn't. In fact TB did a town tell(the one where you thought it was a scum tell.) when he said "town is gonna lose". Like I said, I've only seen town do that.

Usually, when it happened, it was followed by a quick apology, tho ;_;
You're probably thinking right now "haha I'm a genius". Well you're not -Valkrin

inferno: "I don't know, are you attracted to women?"
ButterCatX: "No, Vaarka is mine!"

All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

"Vaarka, I've been thinking about this for a long time now," (pulls out small box made of macaroni) "W-will you be my noodle buddy?" -Kirigaya
bsh1
Posts: 27,504
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9/22/2016 12:32:21 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
VOTE COUNT

XLAV/Saph (1/5) - Breaking
Breaking (1/5) - Shab
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Vaarka
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9/22/2016 12:35:45 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:27:08 AM, ShabShoral wrote:
At 9/22/2016 12:14:34 AM, Vaarka wrote:
So, regarding XLApphique and Breaking, I HIGHLY doubt that they are both scum, and I HIGHLY doubt they are both town, so one is lying and one is truthing. Unless something comes up, I'd say one of them should be our lynch target for today, at the very least to get information about which is lying.

It's POSSIBLE that both are scum. The thing is that, if we lynch Saph and she flips guilty, we have no way of telling if it was a bus or not - and it's a real possibility, considering the circumstances around Breaking's claim. Thus, we still would have to take a gamble on Breaking being town, and, since it's presumably near MYLO, if they ARE both scum and we take Saph's flip as a confirmation of Breaking being town, he would essentially just... win.
While this is possible, I would question the bus. There was slight pressure on XLApphique before, but it settled down once she started posting (at least, that's what I thought). So if he's scum, I could see it being an effort to lynch them. If he's town, then confirmed scum.

However, the second guilty result makes this much easier in my mind. Here's why lynching Breaking will win the game:

1. If Breaking is town, we have two confirmed mafiosos to get rid of consecutively, and there will be NO DOUBT in MYLO/LYLO scenarios.

2. If Breaking is scum, we know that one of these is true:

Saph is scum, Butters is scum;
Saph is scum, Butters is town;
Saph is town, Butters is town;
Saph is town, Butters is scum.

Now, consider that, if Breaking's guilty result was a last-minute attempt to save himself, two things are true: 1. He likely has a role worth going to great lengths to save, and 2. the guilty result would be ON a mafioso, so that the flip "confirms" Breaking's townness.

2. is incredibly important here. It means that, if Breaking is scum, Saph is likely scum too. We can determine whether this is the case or not through retroactive behavioural analysis once we know Breaking's flip.

Butters could be dealt with in the same way, but without the info that he was likely being bussed.

-----

BOTH of these scenarios will play out more favourably for town than the one in which we lynch Saph first, precisely because bussing would have made perfect sense given Breaking's wagon. Lynching Breaking first would give us a much better chance of lynching scum next DP and the DP after that, even if Breaking himself is innocent.

So, with that being said, VTL Breaking.

I can kinda get behind this
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All hail scum Vaarka, wielder of the bastard sword, smiter of nations, destroyer of spiders -VOT

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ButterCatX
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9/22/2016 12:37:46 AM
Posted: 2 months ago
At 9/22/2016 12:21:29 AM, breakingamber wrote:
Lol, two guilties in a row?

Why would you investigate Butters, anyway? Explain.

He wanted to lynch me.

I'm starting to think my sanity is questionable, as I just got 2 guilties in a row, as Shab said. What are the chances?

So: I'll test myself. Vote XLApph.

I think that you're scum, calling me guilty for calling the incongruity of your claim when you could have done more for town by investigating people that are more under question. Now, for one moment, I'm going to pretend that you are town and that you are in fact the cop. In an 13 person game, you choose 2 people randomly. Assuming 4 scum you have a 4/13 chance then a 3/11 chance of hitting scum again for a total of 12/169 chance of hitting scum twice in a row. The odds point towards insanity. I don't trust you, and I trust your results even less.
I bet fanfics are already being posted on random blogs about us.-Vaarka

Butters preformed his duty to the town and died with honor, he helped us kill scum, so we know have to go and make sure his death wasn't in vain and win this game for him.-lannan13

All hail the great and mighty Butters, who died for our inactive cause.-Vaarka

fuckith offith, lol.-Ore(talking to me)

And guess what happened to FT? He got raped to death.-Xlav

You are so obviously town I love you man.-VOT