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HAVENWOOD MAFIA GAME: Day Phase #8

KRFournier
Posts: 690
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7/9/2009 9:02:47 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Alive

#1. dvhoose
#2. resolutionsmasher
#3. DeadLeaves93
#4. Harlan
#5. Ragnar_Rahl
#6. crackofdawn_Jr
#7. Johnicle
#8. theitalianstallion
#9. I-am-a-Panda
#10. theLwerd
#11. DrumBum1234
#12. SaintNick

Deceased

#1. Clockwork (mafia) - killed by Vigilante on Night Phase 4.

#2. wjmelements (townie), Mason (Can communicate privately with other masons) - killed by Moderator on Day Phase 5 for violating rule 5: no copying and pasting private conversions with moderator.

#3. JBlake (townie), Nightwatch (Can follow a player during each night phase and be told who that person targeted) - killed by Mafia on Night Phase 5.

#4. SportsGuru (mafia), Mafia Assassin (Carries out mafia kills and kills the vigilante if targeted; the mafia always has exactly one assassin) - lynched on Day Phase 6.

#5. AnimeFanTony (townie), Inventor (Can roll the dice to random effect1-Cop, 2-Doctor, 3-Revive, 4-Death) – killed by rolling a 4 on Night Phase 6.

#6. The_Booner (townie), Politician (Can force any player to vote for another player each day phase) – killed by mafia on Night Phase 6.

#7. Logical-Master (mafia) - lynched on Day Phase 7.

#8. usafkid1121 (townie), Doctor (Can select a player at night and keep protect them from a night kill) – killed by mafia on Night Phase 7.

Story

Havenwood Herald
July 9, 2009

HEROIC DOCTOR UNABLE TO SAVE HIMSELF

Usafkid1121 was found dead this morning in his car still parked at the HavenHealth Hospital parking lot. Police believe he was heavily involved in the recent lynchings and may even had played a part in protecting Havenwood citizens from mafia violence. Sadly, his heroism has met its end. He was shot once in the head. Police note that the car window was rolled down, suggesting the perpetrator posed as a citizen in need. With one less citizen looking out for the good of Havenwood, is there any hope of seeing an end to our city's bloodshed?

Day Phase #8 Begins

1. The day phase will expire on Tuesday at 10:00pm PDT, though I reserve the right to extend the deadline due to summer schedules.
2. 12 players remain, so 7 votes are needed for majority decision.
Ragnar_Rahl
Posts: 19,297
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7/9/2009 10:35:26 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Well, on the plus side we now know more or less what happened and don't have to muddle over Usaf's erratic behavior

On the minus side we have no doc, and here I was checking him for a gun just in case he still lived (result negative of course :( )
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.
Harlan
Posts: 1,880
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7/9/2009 11:33:04 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/9/2009 10:54:13 AM, usafkid1121 wrote:
Watch the "citizen in need", imagine who a doctor would help.

The cop...?
Harlan
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7/9/2009 11:54:10 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Oh...saintnick hasn't been online for four days.

He may have not been active to use his night ability.

I vote to lynch Ragnar_Rahl.
resolutionsmasher
Posts: 579
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7/9/2009 6:28:56 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
I have returned and despite my absence I believe that I have sufficiently read through past posts to pick up a few interesting thoughts.

(to Harlan)
While I currently have few suspicions, you interest me. R_R has been an influential player in this game and has benefitted the town greatly in his observations. You on the otherhand are blatently attacking this person for reason I refuse to guess about yet you have failed to provide. This leads me to think, the most intelligent thing for the mafia to do right now is to attack the most helpful members of town. You are attacking R_R who I have indicated as a helpful townie. If you are as I am now thinking, (a mafia), then this pressing attack on R_R is certainly revealing of you. On the other hand if you are a townie and your words become the cause of R_R's death, then if and when we discover his innocence this will placate you as possible mafia and the town does not need you undersuspicion in these troubling times.

Either way I'm still not certain of you alliegences so at the moment I will refuse to cast my vote so prematurely as you have chosen to do.

I'm back
And the town WILL WIN!!!
In the relationship between Obama and the rest of the U.S..... I think the U.S. is getting the short end of the hockey stick.
resolutionsmasher
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7/9/2009 6:29:45 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/9/2009 10:54:13 AM, usafkid1121 wrote:
Watch the "citizen in need", imagine who a doctor would help.

I thought you quit DDO?!?!
In the relationship between Obama and the rest of the U.S..... I think the U.S. is getting the short end of the hockey stick.
Ragnar_Rahl
Posts: 19,297
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7/9/2009 7:17:48 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
I have a significant suspicion it was me Stnick investigated several days ago (Even if he didn't do it this time, which he may have since he may have sent an action before night phase began). I understand what you're after Harlan, I recommend ya'll at least wait for Stnick to say something before stacking up too many votes if ya agree with happen to agree with Harlan on that account :).
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.
Harlan
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7/9/2009 8:23:39 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/9/2009 6:28:56 PM, resolutionsmasher wrote:
I have returned and despite my absence I believe that I have sufficiently read through past posts to pick up a few interesting thoughts.

(to Harlan)
While I currently have few suspicions, you interest me. R_R has been an influential player in this game and has benefitted the town greatly in his observations. You on the otherhand are blatently attacking this person for reason I refuse to guess about yet you have failed to provide. This leads me to think, the most intelligent thing for the mafia to do right now is to attack the most helpful members of town. You are attacking R_R who I have indicated as a helpful townie. If you are as I am now thinking, (a mafia), then this pressing attack on R_R is certainly revealing of you. On the other hand if you are a townie and your words become the cause of R_R's death, then if and when we discover his innocence this will placate you as possible mafia and the town does not need you undersuspicion in these troubling times.

Either way I'm still not certain of you alliegences so at the moment I will refuse to cast my vote so prematurely as you have chosen to do.

I'm back
And the town WILL WIN!!!

Apparently you haven't sufficiently read posts, because I have, in fact, stated my reason for lynching Ragnar_Rahl. He claimed a role which involved knowing whether people "own a gun" or not.

He falsely reported that I have a gun. There was originally a chance that his results were simply inaccurate, but none of his other reports have been inaccurate, which indicates that he was lying.

Additionally, many of his reports are such that the information could easily be deduced by other means, by a mafia member. (i.e. investigating the revealed doctor. Seriously, that's retarded.)

I'd rather not end the day phase yet, but I am casting my vote early to stir things up.
Ragnar_Rahl
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7/9/2009 9:28:05 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Why do you think the mafia has an investigation role? They stir this trouble over one doctor? You'd think they'd have more calls right by now if they had such a role. And if that were true AND I were mafia, both of which you claim, you'd think I'd have perfect results by now (Which as far as anyone but you knows I still do of course).

And I did the investigation because Lwerd among others thought there was some kind of Kill-LM ploy going on, and Usaf was still mafia. It seemed just outrageous enough to be possible. I wanted to be surer we didn't have to worry about that, as LM pointed out in his townie incarnation, Usaf's incompetence is very dangerous if we are at all uncertain about his status

As for none of my other results being inaccurate, note we've confirmed rather few of them, and in any case if it's random statistics doesn't work that way. And, there's another possibility to you know. If you've ever watched Spiderman--- since your claimed role is "hero of the people..." Imagine what sort of person might've registered a gun in the name of the hero of the people.

All three are possibilities, you lying, random numbers, or some unique flavor of your role that gives them a possibility. We really don't have information to find out which.

That said, I can still understand a vote for me from someone else's shoes, and I can't do a whole heck of a lot about it, I don't exactly have another role to reveal. Like I said, wait till we see what SN's got to say.
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.
Harlan
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7/9/2009 10:03:47 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/9/2009 9:28:05 PM, Ragnar_Rahl wrote:
Why do you think the mafia has an investigation role? They stir this trouble over one doctor? You'd think they'd have more calls right by now if they had such a role. And if that were true AND I were mafia, both of which you claim, you'd think I'd have perfect results by now (Which as far as anyone but you knows I still do of course).

I have come to believe that LM was truthful in that he arrived at usafkid's role by deduction.

As for none of my other results being inaccurate, note we've confirmed rather few of them, and in any case if it's random statistics doesn't work that way. And, there's another possibility to you know. If you've ever watched Spiderman--- since your claimed role is "hero of the people..." Imagine what sort of person might've registered a gun in the name of the hero of the people.

I'm afraid I don't follow. If you are suggesting that I do in fact own a gun, I have confirmed via PM that I do not own a gun.

All three are possibilities, you lying, random numbers, or some unique flavor of your role that gives them a possibility. We really don't have information to find out which.

I would not benefit at all if I were a mafia member lying that I did not own a gun, even after an investigative role said that I did. And I have gotten the impression that KRF doesn't like to use roles in which the beholder is not given full information about his role (i.e. paranoid, naive, or insane). Also, there have been no other reports about your "results" being false and the absence of a pattern suggests that your role does not include random inaccuracies. And, like I said, I have confirmed that I do not own a gun.
Ragnar_Rahl
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7/9/2009 10:08:16 PM
Posted: 7 years ago

As for none of my other results being inaccurate, note we've confirmed rather few of them, and in any case if it's random statistics doesn't work that way. And, there's another possibility to you know. If you've ever watched Spiderman--- since your claimed role is "hero of the people..." Imagine what sort of person might've registered a gun in the name of the hero of the people.

I'm afraid I don't follow. If you are suggesting that I do in fact own a gun, I have confirmed via PM that I do not own a gun.
That you don't own a gun, not that someone else doesn't own one in your name. Imagine you're spiderman, someone working at the flavor newspaper we get our story from doesn't like you. Imagine it's socially unacceptable for non-law-enforcement has a gun. What do ya do? Buy a gun, fill in your name. It would still be true that "You don't own a gun."


All three are possibilities, you lying, random numbers, or some unique flavor of your role that gives them a possibility. We really don't have information to find out which.

I would not benefit at all if I were a mafia member lying that I did not own a gun, even after an investigative role said that I did.
Sure you would. It avoids you getting lynched :).

And I have gotten the impression that KRF doesn't like to use roles in which the beholder is not given full information about his role (i.e. paranoid, naive, or insane). Also, there have been no other reports about your "results" being false and the absence of a pattern suggests that your role does not include random inaccuracies.
The lack of correlation in a tiny sample size does such?

I dunno what KRF likes, other than him not liking third parties.
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.
Harlan
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7/9/2009 10:36:14 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
That you don't own a gun, not that someone else doesn't own one in your name. Imagine you're spiderman, someone working at the flavor newspaper we get our story from doesn't like you. Imagine it's socially unacceptable for non-law-enforcement has a gun. What do ya do? Buy a gun, fill in your name. It would still be true that "You don't own a gun."

That's possible, but very unlikely from my point of view.

I would not benefit at all if I were a mafia member lying that I did not own a gun, even after an investigative role said that I did.
Sure you would. It avoids you getting lynched :).

Owning a gun does not indicate "guiltiness". If I were mafia I would have claimed a townie role which possessed a gun. It would be very easy to do, since most of the roles in this game seem to be invented by KRF.

In contrast, I claimed a role which did not have a gun (which would sound like lying on the face of it, since an investigative role said I did own one) and also one which was disadvantageous for the town to kill. If I were mafia I would not have done that, because there has been a precedent for mafia members claiming roles such as the jester and the bomb which backfire when lynched.
Harlan
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7/9/2009 10:39:56 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
KRF, what is your opinion of roles that the beholder does not receive full information about.

I understand if you don't want to answer that. I'm just fishing for information.
Ragnar_Rahl
Posts: 19,297
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7/9/2009 11:28:23 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/9/2009 10:36:14 PM, Harlan wrote:
That you don't own a gun, not that someone else doesn't own one in your name. Imagine you're spiderman, someone working at the flavor newspaper we get our story from doesn't like you. Imagine it's socially unacceptable for non-law-enforcement has a gun. What do ya do? Buy a gun, fill in your name. It would still be true that "You don't own a gun."

That's possible, but very unlikely from my point of view.
Depends how many comix Kr reads :)


I would not benefit at all if I were a mafia member lying that I did not own a gun, even after an investigative role said that I did.
Sure you would. It avoids you getting lynched :).

Owning a gun does not indicate "guiltiness". If I were mafia I would have claimed a townie role which possessed a gun. It would be very easy to do, since most of the roles in this game seem to be invented by KRF.
Owning a gun presumably is statistical guilt, and claiming a role would incur costs over time. Further, it might net you me :)
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.
I-am-a-panda
Posts: 15,380
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7/10/2009 6:30:08 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
I am unsure of the amount of Mafia left. We started with 20 players. That means we have 4-6 Mafia members. 3 are dead, so there are, at most, 3 left. There are also at least 9 Townies left. So, we can stand 2 phases without getting a Mafioso. We have two shouts to pick out 1-3 players (2-3 realistically).

These statistics aren't in the Mafia's favour. Obviously, at this point, they are starting to crack ever so slightly.

Now, let's analyse Harlan's claim of Ragnar's Mafiaship:

Harlan brought up evidence Ragnar used more than 2 day phases ago (Not sure exactly when, but I presume I was M.I.A when it happened). Now, firstly, Harlan should have sprung on that immediately, not brought it up a few Day Phases later. Which meant he was scheming. But Harlan [hopefully] has has better things to do elsewhere, ergo, he schemed with someone else, a Mafia team-mate.

Further evidence is that Harlan brought up this topic without Ragnar doing anything, meaning he is working on a scheme to eliminate the last great thinker from the game which benefits the Townies.

If Harlan is wrong, he will fall back on his faulty assumption that he was working on an idea.

Harlan also is repeatedly claims his role 'Hero of the people', on the basis it is unique and all the roles are thought up by KRF. However, a role known as 'Hero' exists. Harlan either legitimately received this role, which may have occured, or he and his 'team-mates' simply added a few words to a pre-existing role, which I also added in my Blogspot. Also, here's a wiki link to it: http://www.mafiascum.net...

Harlans claim covers all bases, too perfectly, bar the motive. Ragnar did nothing to arose anyone's suspicions, except a 'faulty' claim a few day phases ago.

Now, if Harlan is innocent, we have gained nothing much, or if he's guilty, well, yeay. Yet, if we lynch Ragnar, we lose an investigative role (We have another one), assuming he's innocent. Now, if he's guilty, well then Harlan was right. Good call.

We are at a crossroads. Lynch Ragnar we gain a Mafia either way. Lynch Sportsguru, and it's a 50-50 chance we gain a Mafia role.

So, Vote to lynch Ragnar_Rahl
Pizza. I have enormous respect for Pizza.
resolutionsmasher
Posts: 579
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7/10/2009 7:14:31 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
I understand where you are coming from panda but that reasoning will also work if we lynch Harlan. We get a mafia either way. If Harlan is guilty as I now think, then R_R is basically proven innocent due to Harlan's agressive attack on him. If Harlan is innocent then we know that he was legitamate and so were his claims. Thus we find R_R as mafia. Taking this into account I now believe that Harlan is the place to start because this whole 'hero of the people' buisness seems rather fishy to me. I'm now prepared to cast my vote to VOTE LYNCH HARLAN.
In the relationship between Obama and the rest of the U.S..... I think the U.S. is getting the short end of the hockey stick.
I-am-a-panda
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7/10/2009 10:54:44 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/10/2009 7:14:31 AM, resolutionsmasher wrote:
I understand where you are coming from panda but that reasoning will also work if we lynch Harlan. We get a mafia either way. If Harlan is guilty as I now think, then R_R is basically proven innocent due to Harlan's agressive attack on him. If Harlan is innocent then we know that he was legitamate and so were his claims. Thus we find R_R as mafia. Taking this into account I now believe that Harlan is the place to start because this whole 'hero of the people' buisness seems rather fishy to me. I'm now prepared to cast my vote to VOTE LYNCH HARLAN.

Lynching an innocent Harlan proves nothing. It proves Harlan had a hunch that was wrong. Ragnar only defended himself. He never accused Harlan of being Mafia. You missed the reasoning at the end of my copiously long post, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

Lynch Ragnar. If he's Mafia, well done Harlan.
If he's innocent, Lynch Harlan.
Win-Win

Lynch Harlan. If he's Mafia, he overstepped.
If he's innocent, we've proved nothing.
Win-Lose
Pizza. I have enormous respect for Pizza.
dvhoose
Posts: 223
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7/10/2009 3:14:58 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Forgive my ignorance, but why does either R_R or Harlan have to be a mafia member? Why can't they both be townie? (Or both be mafia?)
Harlan
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7/10/2009 4:18:03 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Harlan brought up evidence Ragnar used more than 2 day phases ago (Not sure exactly when, but I presume I was M.I.A when it happened). Now, firstly, Harlan should have sprung on that immediately, not brought it up a few Day Phases later. Which meant he was scheming. But Harlan [hopefully] has has better things to do elsewhere, ergo, he schemed with someone else, a Mafia team-mate.

Panda, misinformation is not helpful. I brought up that evidence AS SOON as ragnar reported I had a gun. I then roleclaimed, per others' requests. This is not something new, it's just something that has been forgotten a bit, and I am bringing up again.

Further evidence is that Harlan brought up this topic without Ragnar doing anything, meaning he is working on a scheme to eliminate the last great thinker from the game which benefits the Townies.

Once more, this evidence has been "up" for a long time. I am putting more emphasis on it now because...

1. after a while of observing Ragnar's "results" and the reaction to those, there is no discernable pattern of inaccuracies, which leads me to believe that his role does not include random inaccuracies. He was simply lying.

2. Last day phase we were focusing on LM and usafkid, so I waited until this phase to return the conversation to Ragnar_Rahl.
Harlan
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7/10/2009 4:21:36 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/10/2009 3:14:58 PM, dvhoose wrote:
Forgive my ignorance, but why does either R_R or Harlan have to be a mafia member? Why can't they both be townie? (Or both be mafia?)

The only way we could both be townie is if RR has a role that is inaccurate in some strange way that it is only very rarely inaccurate.

If we were both mafia, then I would go along with Ragnar's report by claiming a role which owned a gun, or better yet: Ragnar would report that I did not have a gun and therefore I was innocent.
Ragnar_Rahl
Posts: 19,297
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7/10/2009 6:01:00 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
When is Nick's vacation over Lwerd?
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.
resolutionsmasher
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7/10/2009 6:32:21 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/10/2009 10:54:44 AM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
At 7/10/2009 7:14:31 AM, resolutionsmasher wrote:
I understand where you are coming from panda but that reasoning will also work if we lynch Harlan. We get a mafia either way. If Harlan is guilty as I now think, then R_R is basically proven innocent due to Harlan's agressive attack on him. If Harlan is innocent then we know that he was legitamate and so were his claims. Thus we find R_R as mafia. Taking this into account I now believe that Harlan is the place to start because this whole 'hero of the people' buisness seems rather fishy to me. I'm now prepared to cast my vote to VOTE LYNCH HARLAN.

Lynching an innocent Harlan proves nothing. It proves Harlan had a hunch that was wrong. Ragnar only defended himself. He never accused Harlan of being Mafia. You missed the reasoning at the end of my copiously long post, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.

Lynch Ragnar. If he's Mafia, well done Harlan.
If he's innocent, Lynch Harlan.
Win-Win

Lynch Harlan. If he's Mafia, he overstepped.
If he's innocent, we've proved nothing.
Win-Lose

Thank you for that considertation. I think I will move with less brashness this time. For now I will VOTE UNLYNCH HARLAN

My suspicions stand but panda's logic is reasonable.
In the relationship between Obama and the rest of the U.S..... I think the U.S. is getting the short end of the hockey stick.
Harlan
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7/10/2009 9:14:42 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Lynch Ragnar. If he's Mafia, well done Harlan.
If he's innocent, Lynch Harlan.
Win-Win

I feel that Ragnar's incorrect report is reason enough to lynch him (along with his other somewhat suspicious investigations), but I do not see how his innocence would prove my guilt.

I see Ragnar being mafia as the most likely scenario, but we must keep in mind that there are other possibilities. KRF has set up this game in such a way that there are many unknown possibilities, making the game less predictable and conclusions more difficult to make.

Hopefully Saintnick investigated Ragnar last night, and if he didn't, it might even be a good idea to wait a night so can investigate RR.
resolutionsmasher
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7/11/2009 10:53:27 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/10/2009 9:14:42 PM, Harlan wrote:

I feel that Ragnar's incorrect report is reason enough to lynch him (along with his other somewhat suspicious investigations), but I do not see how his innocence would prove my guilt.

If this is true then why are some voting to lynch him. If by your idea there is no win-win situation then we have a plethora of win-lose situations to choose from other than lynching R_R. Let's consider them all.
In the relationship between Obama and the rest of the U.S..... I think the U.S. is getting the short end of the hockey stick.