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Hist. Figures Mafia - Day Phase 3

JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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9/24/2009 7:56:35 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
ACTIVE PLAYERS

1. KRFournier -- Vote Stolen
2. TheSkeptic
3. Cody_Franklin
4. Clockwork
5. Logical-Master
6. leet4A1
7. Vi_Veri
8. wjmelements
9. philosophical
10. mongeese
11. Big_Mac2
12. LeafRod
13. Rezzealaux
14. I-am-a-Panda
15. Ragnar_Rahl
16. ToastOfDestiny
17. AFT

Nine votes required for a majority.

===============

Deceased
theLwerd: Jesus Christ (Cult Leader) -- no formal abilities. Cult recruitment doubles upon death. Lynched on Day Phase 1.

pcmbrown: Louis Antoine Léon de Saint-Just (mafia regular). Killed by the vigilante on Night Phase 1.

mongoose: Eugène François Vidocq (Novice Cop) -- Could investigate two players throughout the entirety of the game. Killed by the mafia on Night Phase 1.

Sportsguru: Maximilian Robespierre (Godfather) -- Appeared innocent to investigation, had a one-shot kill ability. Lynched on Day Phase 2

Nags: Leslie William Coffelt (Bodyguard) -- Could protect a player in the night phase, but would die in the process. Killed by the mafia on Night Phase 2.

============

VOTE COUNT

KRFournier: (KRFournier) -- 1/9 votes required for a lynch
KRFournier
Posts: 690
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9/24/2009 8:51:39 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Ragnar_Rahl is taking us for a ride. It's all too convenient that his once-every-three-days shot nailed the GodFather. It's rather convenient that SportsGuru just up and stopped posting. I knew from the get-go he was lying, and while I was sure to express my doubts, I let it fly. After all, if he's willing to kill a mafia for us, why stop him.

Lynch Ragnar_Rahl
Ragnar_Rahl
Posts: 19,297
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9/24/2009 10:42:46 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Well, this is a predictable action given what was happening to KR at the end of last day phase for obstructing the lynch of the godfather.
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.
Ragnar_Rahl
Posts: 19,297
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9/24/2009 10:48:49 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
"Convenience" does not establish anything anyway.

But what do I know. If you'd rather throw away a useful role, lynch instead of cop investigating me. I can't hurt you if you refuse to believe anything I say until the results of said investigation come out.

You'll note that Guru stopped posting because he wasn't online before the lynch, as far as I can tell. I observed his posting patterns and worked out the plan from there.
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.
KRFournier
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9/24/2009 10:59:06 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 10:48:49 AM, Ragnar_Rahl wrote:
"Convenience" does not establish anything anyway.

Circumstantial evidence is not as valuable as direct evidence, but it is evidence nonetheless.

But what do I know. If you'd rather throw away a useful role, lynch instead of cop investigating me.

There is no loss, the role is phony.

I can't hurt you if you refuse to believe anything I say until the results of said investigation come out.

Except turn our attention to another townie today and kill another townie tonight.

You'll note that Guru stopped posting because he wasn't online before the lynch, as far as I can tell. I observed his posting patterns and worked out the plan from there.

Lol. SportsGuru's last post was on 9/21/2009 at 8:34:05 PM. Your post was less than two hours later on 9/21/2009 at 10:15:18 PM. Man, that's some pretty good pattern observations. I know, I know, you just got lucky, right?
I-am-a-panda
Posts: 15,380
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9/24/2009 11:03:08 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 8:51:39 AM, KRFournier wrote:
Ragnar_Rahl is taking us for a ride. It's all too convenient that his once-every-three-days shot nailed the GodFather. It's rather convenient that SportsGuru just up and stopped posting. I knew from the get-go he was lying, and while I was sure to express my doubts, I let it fly. After all, if he's willing to kill a mafia for us, why stop him.

Lynch Ragnar_Rahl

Krf, you've been very suspicious to me now, what with the delaying of your lynching Sportsguru. Most Mafia hesitate when someone, especially someone as important as the Godfather, is on the chopping block.

Ragnar is obviously not Mafia. The bodyguard obviously protected him, and the bodyguard obviously got shot up protecting him. Nags wasn't particularly vocal either.

The above comment makes me believe your trying to distort our view this day phase. Sportsguru was Mafia, so I'm willing to wait for another investigation from Ragnar.

However, it is clear on the reasons of why to lynch you. Vote to lynch Krfournier

And Ragnar, can you explain your ability (e.g. what restrictions)
Pizza. I have enormous respect for Pizza.
KRFournier
Posts: 690
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9/24/2009 11:09:04 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Panda, so you don't find it at all suspicious that Ragnar_Rahl posted this statement a less than two hours after SportGuru's last post:

Alright, Sportsguru seems to be offline, here's hoping he'll stay that way until enough show up to lynch.

Doesn't that strike you as at least somewhat conspiratorial? Isn't at least a little too convenient that SportsGuru never showed up to defend himself again?
KRFournier
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9/24/2009 11:10:33 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Logical_Master is a confirmed innocent according to the Novice Cop's report on Day Phase 1. I'm very interested in his assessment on this.
Logical-Master
Posts: 2,538
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9/24/2009 11:18:01 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 11:10:33 AM, KRFournier wrote:
Logical_Master is a confirmed innocent according to the Novice Cop's report on Day Phase 1. I'm very interested in his assessment on this.

Sure, why not. We've got plenty of time to assess the situation.

Ragnar, why haven't you voted to lynch KRFournier?
Logical-Master
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9/24/2009 11:23:20 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 11:09:04 AM, KRFournier wrote:
Panda, so you don't find it at all suspicious that Ragnar_Rahl posted this statement a less than two hours after SportGuru's last post:

Alright, Sportsguru seems to be offline, here's hoping he'll stay that way until enough show up to lynch.

Doesn't that strike you as at least somewhat conspiratorial? Isn't at least a little too convenient that SportsGuru never showed up to defend himself again?

Nah, Guru had the ability to kill someone during the day. It would be in his best interest to show up and take someone down before he died.
ToastOfDestiny
Posts: 990
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9/24/2009 11:33:26 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Which would lend even more strength to RR's innocence. If the mafia were plotting to save RR, I think the least they could do would be to have Sports re-emerge and kill a prominent player (LM, KRF, Vi etc.) so as to cripple the town. The fact that he didn't means (at least to me, right now) that RR is innocent.

KRF, how did you miss an analysis so basic that I came up with it? I'm going to hold back on putting in a lynch vote right now, but you better provide a good explanation.
At 10/11/2009 8:28:18 PM, banker wrote:
Our demise and industrial destruction
At 10/11/2009 10:00:21 PM, regebro wrote:
Only exists in your head, as already shown.

At 10/11/2009 8:28:18 PM, banker wrote:
reveal why you answer with a question mark
At 10/11/2009 10:00:21 PM, regebro wrote:
Because it was a question.

RFDs Pl0x:
http://www.debate.org...
KRFournier
Posts: 690
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9/24/2009 11:48:26 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Alright, I thought I could lay low and help you guys see reason. If the mafia have a roleblocker, then I'm screwed. I am the cop. The reason I have suspected Ragnar_Rahl all along is because I investigated him on Night Phase 1 (you might recall theLwerd's instistence on this). He is GUILTY.

When R_R came out with this story (using a never-before-seen role no less), I expressed my concern but didn't come right out with my findings. I wanted to see who would bandwagon with him. Once he willingly confessed how silly it would be to lie if SportsGuru was innocent, I concluded he was sacrificing one of his own. So, I let it play out. After all, if I had revealed my role then, we wouldn't have bagged SportsGuru as a bonus.

Last night I investigated Cody, but he is INNOCENT. He seemed too quick to side with Ragnar_Rahl for my liking, but this hunch unfortunately led to a dead end.

Now, I am almost certain Ragnar_Rahl will assert that I'm faking. The only way to confirm this is if there is a counter-claim. So, I submit the following options.

1. If there is no counter-claim, then you should have every reason to believe I'm really the cop. In this case, we should lynch Ragnar_Rahl and put the Doctor on me tonight. Hopefully I won't be role blocked. (And hopefully there's a doctor).

2. If there is a counter-claim, then you must choose between me, the counter-claim, or R_R to lynch. I recommend R_R, since the cop role is more important. Killing R_R will confirm my role power and condemn the counter-claim.

There you have it.
Logical-Master
Posts: 2,538
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9/24/2009 11:54:00 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
If there is a "real cop", don't come out just yet. If you claim, KRF may get lynched, but the mafia will know who to roleblock or kill. I'll be back to sort this mess out later I have class to attend.
ToastOfDestiny
Posts: 990
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9/24/2009 12:22:33 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Alright, litmus test.

Lynch RR.
At 10/11/2009 8:28:18 PM, banker wrote:
Our demise and industrial destruction
At 10/11/2009 10:00:21 PM, regebro wrote:
Only exists in your head, as already shown.

At 10/11/2009 8:28:18 PM, banker wrote:
reveal why you answer with a question mark
At 10/11/2009 10:00:21 PM, regebro wrote:
Because it was a question.

RFDs Pl0x:
http://www.debate.org...
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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9/24/2009 12:24:52 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
VOTE COUNT

KRFournier: (KRFournier) -- 1/9 votes required for a lynch
Ragnar Rahl: (ToastofDestiny) -- 1/9 votes required for a lynch
Ragnar_Rahl
Posts: 19,297
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9/24/2009 12:44:14 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Circumstantial evidence is not as valuable as direct evidence, but it is evidence nonetheless.
If being useful in catching a mafia were "Evidence" everyone would be guilty since not being useful is an even greater grounds for suspicion

Lol. SportsGuru's last post was on 9/21/2009 at 8:34:05 PM. Your post was less than two hours later on 9/21/2009 at 10:15:18 PM. Man, that's some pretty good pattern observations. I know, I know, you just got lucky, right?
Actually, I observed the night before that he made his post about the same time, and was offline for about 24 hours. I figured 23 was plenty. Guru doesn't lack for inactive times, the probability was kind of high I'd get out without him coming aboard.

And Ragnar, can you explain your ability (e.g. what restrictions)
Copypasta:

"
I am Nathan Hale, the Spy. Every three nights, starting with the first, I can target a player and be privy to the pm in which they notify the moderator of their action-- Obviously I am not permitted to quote this information exactly."

Ragnar, why haven't you voted to lynch KRFournier
Because I wanted to see what he'd say first.

1. If there is no counter-claim, then you should have every reason to believe I'm really the cop.

See the Murder Mansion Mafia game, where I explained specifically why there should not be a counter claim even to a mafia cop. I was a townie in that game :).

Hopefully I won't be role blocked.
I know you won't due to your not being the cop, but that is of course irrelevant to those not privy to that information so I won't waste anyone's time. Given the things independently known:

-KR himself considers "convenience" proof. By his standard of evidence he is certainly guilty. This is not my standard, so, if I were not myself and I did not know his role, I would have to conclude that, because the odds we chase down the person who is actually the cop are about 1 in 17, and the odds (presuming, say, a 4 man mafia left), are 4 in 17, but any townie we're dealing with who isn't the cop is discarded from the sample by his claim, there is a one in 5 chance we happened to go hounding after the fellow who happened to be the cop.

-If he were he cop, he will definitely be roleclaimed.

-The bodyguard dying when panda ordered protection to me is what it is, so you have that evidence in my favor, additionally, my roleclaim was not a response to a chase down so there is no "improbability in having chased me down."

-Since his role, if he were the cop, is certain to be roleblocked, it's useless now except as a roleblock occupier (unless the mafia is large enough that the mod thinks it could work without a roleblocker, which lowers the odds of KR teling the truth further)-- whereas the mafia would have to decide whether they want me or some other fellow roleblocked once I get my next use back, and may make a mistake in the confusion that works to our advantage since they have uncertain information about what sort of roles remain to us.

Whichever of us you kill, you learn something about the other and something about Cody, the probabilities and role nuances are laid out here. If you kill the wrong one, you kill the right one shortly after, either way, so we both have the same degree of motivation. I'm gonna vote KRfournier obviously as now it won't affect what he says and I'm one of the two of us who knows for sure who is telling the truth. What you decide to do, on the other hand, you'll have to do with more limited information. Of course, you could also make use of the information about whoever's analysis you want to have a chance of surviving for another day, but that information about your desires is yours.

Keep in mind, too, that whichever innocent survives, if you pick correctly is likely to be recruited by the cult, as will any "confirmed innocents" throughout the game.
It came to be at its height. It was commanded to command. It was a capital before its first stone was laid. It was a monument to the spirit of man.
I-am-a-panda
Posts: 15,380
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9/24/2009 1:17:55 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
VOTE COUNT

KRFournier: (KRFournier, I-am-a-Panda, ToastofDestiny, Ragnar_Rahl) -- 4/9 votes required for a lynch
Ragnar Rahl: (ToastofDestiny) -- 1/9 votes required for a lynch
Pizza. I have enormous respect for Pizza.
I-am-a-panda
Posts: 15,380
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9/24/2009 1:20:07 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 1:14:37 PM, theLwerd wrote:
*sits back and eats bread and wine*

Fix'd ;)
Pizza. I have enormous respect for Pizza.
ToastOfDestiny
Posts: 990
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9/24/2009 1:22:57 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 1:17:55 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
VOTE COUNT

KRFournier: (KRFournier, I-am-a-Panda, *removed self* Ragnar_Rahl) -- 4/9 votes required for a lynch
Ragnar Rahl: (ToastofDestiny) -- 1/9 votes required for a lynch

Fix'd. Panda why are you voting for KRF? If he's the Cop, it's better to nix the spy (who can operate every 3 days). If we end up lynching an innocent spy, we can get rid of KRF tomorrow, or the vigilante can get him.

*stares suspiciously at Panda*
At 10/11/2009 8:28:18 PM, banker wrote:
Our demise and industrial destruction
At 10/11/2009 10:00:21 PM, regebro wrote:
Only exists in your head, as already shown.

At 10/11/2009 8:28:18 PM, banker wrote:
reveal why you answer with a question mark
At 10/11/2009 10:00:21 PM, regebro wrote:
Because it was a question.

RFDs Pl0x:
http://www.debate.org...
KRFournier
Posts: 690
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9/24/2009 1:45:00 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Town, we still have a Vigilante on our side, right? So, we start by lynching the lesser or two roles: the spy--which can only be allegedly used every three nights versus my nightly investigative role. If R_R turns out to be the spy, then the Vigilante kills me. If not, then you know I'm the cop and we have something going for us.
Cody_Franklin
Posts: 9,483
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9/24/2009 1:51:59 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 1:45:00 PM, KRFournier wrote:
Town, we still have a Vigilante on our side, right? So, we start by lynching the lesser or two roles: the spy--which can only be allegedly used every three nights versus my nightly investigative role. If R_R turns out to be the spy, then the Vigilante kills me. If not, then you know I'm the cop and we have something going for us.

Alright, I see it in a similar light - right now, we get rid of R_R; worst-case scenario, he is a townie, and a once-every-3-days role; assuming that we lose R_R, and he turns out to be innocent, I agree that we can easily have KRF's head lopped off. I say we go with what little (admittedly circumstantial) evidence we have.

Lynch Ragnar_Rahl.
Logical-Master
Posts: 2,538
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9/24/2009 1:56:29 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 11:48:26 AM, KRFournier wrote:
Alright, I thought I could lay low and help you guys see reason. If the mafia have a roleblocker, then I'm screwed. I am the cop. The reason I have suspected Ragnar_Rahl all along is because I investigated him on Night Phase 1 (you might recall theLwerd's instistence on this). He is GUILTY.

KRF, would you mind answering a question within one minute of me posting?
ToastOfDestiny
Posts: 990
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9/24/2009 1:57:17 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 1:49:40 PM, KRFournier wrote:
D'oh. I just saw that Toast said the exact same thing. Didn't mean to steal your thunder, there.

Yay! Note that I am not completely incompetent!
At 10/11/2009 8:28:18 PM, banker wrote:
Our demise and industrial destruction
At 10/11/2009 10:00:21 PM, regebro wrote:
Only exists in your head, as already shown.

At 10/11/2009 8:28:18 PM, banker wrote:
reveal why you answer with a question mark
At 10/11/2009 10:00:21 PM, regebro wrote:
Because it was a question.

RFDs Pl0x:
http://www.debate.org...
KRFournier
Posts: 690
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9/24/2009 2:02:58 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 9/24/2009 1:56:29 PM, Logical-Master wrote:

KRF, would you mind answering a question within one minute of me posting?

Assuming I refresh quickly enough, sure.
Logical-Master
Posts: 2,538
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9/24/2009 2:05:24 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
What is your character name?

Why did you not reveal yourself to be the cop at the start of today?

Do not elaborate; answer within one minute. Go!