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Multiple Choice question

DanT
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3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
cybertron1998
Posts: 5,818
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3/26/2013 5:51:28 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%
Epsilon: There are so many stories where some brave hero decides to give their life to save the day, and because of their sacrifice, the good guys win, the survivors all cheer, and everybody lives happily ever after. But the hero... never gets to see that ending. They'll never know if their sacrifice actually made a difference. They'll never know if the day was really saved. In the end, they just have to have faith.
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,280
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3/26/2013 6:06:43 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%

There is no correct answer, not even 0%. If we choose 25% because there are four option, then that is obviously not the case because we have a 50% chance of choosing 25% due to two instances of it occurring. If we choose 50% then we are wrong because we have only a 25% chance of choosing the answer 50%. From this could then conclude that there is no correct answer, and thus choose 0%, but we would still be incorrect because we have a 25% chance of choosing 0% in that case, thus making 25% the correct answer. Whichever answer you prove decides which answer is correct, which decides which answer you choose, and so on and so on.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
THEVIRUS
Posts: 1,321
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3/26/2013 6:12:04 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 6:06:43 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%

There is no correct answer, not even 0%. If we choose 25% because there are four option, then that is obviously not the case because we have a 50% chance of choosing 25% due to two instances of it occurring. If we choose 50% then we are wrong because we have only a 25% chance of choosing the answer 50%. From this could then conclude that there is no correct answer, and thus choose 0%, but we would still be incorrect because we have a 25% chance of choosing 0% in that case, thus making 25% the correct answer. Whichever answer you prove decides which answer is correct, which decides which answer you choose, and so on and so on.

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
"So you want me to go to the judge with 'unit, corps, God, country'?" - A Few Good Men

"And the hits just keep on comin'." -A Few Good Men
phantom
Posts: 6,774
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3/26/2013 9:13:21 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%

Well generally there should be a 25% chance since there's four options, however there's two 25%'s so the answer should be 50%. But if the answer's 50%, then there's only a 25% chance you'll get it right and we're back at the beginning. So it's a paradox which means it's impossible to get right, so there's a 0% chance of getting it right. Except 0% is one of the options which brings us back to a 25% chance. Sh!t. Double paradox.
"Music is a zen-like ecstatic state where you become the new man of the future, the Nietzschean merger of Apollo and Dionysus." Ray Manzarek (The Doors)
bossyburrito
Posts: 14,075
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3/26/2013 9:16:00 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%

B?
#UnbanTheMadman

"Some will sell their dreams for small desires
Or lose the race to rats
Get caught in ticking traps
And start to dream of somewhere
To relax their restless flight
Somewhere out of a memory of lighted streets on quiet nights..."

~ Rush
YYW
Posts: 36,289
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3/26/2013 9:27:49 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%

I choose E. Yes. E. That is my answer.
Tsar of DDO
YYW
Posts: 36,289
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3/26/2013 9:29:00 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%

Oh fvck... variable change... I can't believe I forgot this sh!t. B. I choose B.
Tsar of DDO
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.
phantom
Posts: 6,774
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3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.
"Music is a zen-like ecstatic state where you become the new man of the future, the Nietzschean merger of Apollo and Dionysus." Ray Manzarek (The Doors)
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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3/26/2013 10:14:39 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 9:16:00 PM, bossyburrito wrote:
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%


B?

So, there are 3 answers listed, and thus only three possibilities, but there are still 4 choices in a random draw, so the answer is somewhere between 25-33%, but the arithmetic of how to get to the exact right answer escapes me at the moment.
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
dylancatlow
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3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.
phantom
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3/26/2013 10:23:06 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.

Yes, that's why it's a paradox.
"Music is a zen-like ecstatic state where you become the new man of the future, the Nietzschean merger of Apollo and Dionysus." Ray Manzarek (The Doors)
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,287
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3/26/2013 10:24:33 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%

A or D
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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3/26/2013 10:27:28 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:23:06 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.

Yes, that's why it's a paradox.

Yes, but there's still a zero percent chance the answer is correct because there is no correct answer at all, so the answer is C (there is a zero percent chance you are correct).
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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3/26/2013 10:28:18 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:23:06 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.

Yes, that's why it's a paradox.

It's not a paradox, it's a trick question.

The answer doesn't lie within the actual answers to the question.

3 possibilities but 1 of them occurs twice, so the answer is neither 25%, nor is it 33.3%, but it is somewhere between those two points.

Someone had to have taken calculus recently who can remember how to do this kind of sh!t. It's 20 years in my rear view mirror and I didn't even like it then.
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
Skepsikyma
Posts: 8,280
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3/26/2013 10:35:21 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:28:18 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:23:06 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.

Yes, that's why it's a paradox.

It's not a paradox, it's a trick question.

The answer doesn't lie within the actual answers to the question.

3 possibilities but 1 of them occurs twice, so the answer is neither 25%, nor is it 33.3%, but it is somewhere between those two points.

Someone had to have taken calculus recently who can remember how to do this kind of sh!t. It's 20 years in my rear view mirror and I didn't even like it then.

I think it would be lim x -> 0. Basically, as close as you can get to zero without touching it.
"The Collectivist experiment is thoroughly suited (in appearance at least) to the Capitalist society which it proposes to replace. It works with the existing machinery of Capitalism, talks and thinks in the existing terms of Capitalism, appeals to just those appetites which Capitalism has aroused, and ridicules as fantastic and unheard-of just those things in society the memory of which Capitalism has killed among men wherever the blight of it has spread."
- Hilaire Belloc -
phantom
Posts: 6,774
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3/26/2013 10:36:00 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:27:28 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:23:06 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.

Yes, that's why it's a paradox.

Yes, but there's still a zero percent chance the answer is correct because there is no correct answer at all, so the answer is C (there is a zero percent chance you are correct).

The answer isn't anything because all answers are paradoxical
"Music is a zen-like ecstatic state where you become the new man of the future, the Nietzschean merger of Apollo and Dionysus." Ray Manzarek (The Doors)
phantom
Posts: 6,774
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3/26/2013 10:37:05 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:28:18 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:23:06 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.

Yes, that's why it's a paradox.

It's not a paradox, it's a trick question.

The answer doesn't lie within the actual answers to the question.

3 possibilities but 1 of them occurs twice, so the answer is neither 25%, nor is it 33.3%, but it is somewhere between those two points.

Someone had to have taken calculus recently who can remember how to do this kind of sh!t. It's 20 years in my rear view mirror and I didn't even like it then.

I guess that's one way of looking at it.
"Music is a zen-like ecstatic state where you become the new man of the future, the Nietzschean merger of Apollo and Dionysus." Ray Manzarek (The Doors)
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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3/26/2013 10:39:22 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:35:21 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:28:18 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:23:06 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.

Yes, that's why it's a paradox.

It's not a paradox, it's a trick question.

The answer doesn't lie within the actual answers to the question.

3 possibilities but 1 of them occurs twice, so the answer is neither 25%, nor is it 33.3%, but it is somewhere between those two points.

Someone had to have taken calculus recently who can remember how to do this kind of sh!t. It's 20 years in my rear view mirror and I didn't even like it then.

I think it would be lim x -> 0. Basically, as close as you can get to zero without touching it.

OK...let's try this more simply.

If the answer is 25%, my chances of being right are 50%
if it's 0%, 25%
and 50%, 25%

50+25+25=100
100/3=33.3%

Maybe it is 1/3 since there are 3 answers, but that doesn't seem right.
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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3/26/2013 10:40:49 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:36:00 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:27:28 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:23:06 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.

Yes, that's why it's a paradox.

Yes, but there's still a zero percent chance the answer is correct because there is no correct answer at all, so the answer is C (there is a zero percent chance you are correct).

The answer isn't anything because all answers are paradoxical

Yes, 'paradoxicalness' cannot be correct, so it's zero :) I know it's a mindfuck either way. I choose zero, you can do what you want.
YYW
Posts: 36,289
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3/26/2013 10:43:48 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:39:22 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:35:21 PM, Skepsikyma wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:28:18 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:23:06 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:17:37 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:49:48 PM, phantom wrote:
At 3/26/2013 9:45:21 PM, dylancatlow wrote:
I choose C, because there is no correct answer, so my answer has a zero percent chance of being correct in the OVERALL sense.

But there's a 25% chance of getting C which means a 25% chance of getting it right instead of zero. It's a paradox.

Then it wouldn't be correct (0 wouldn't be, I mean). See what I mean? It's right because it's wrong.

Yes, that's why it's a paradox.

It's not a paradox, it's a trick question.

The answer doesn't lie within the actual answers to the question.

3 possibilities but 1 of them occurs twice, so the answer is neither 25%, nor is it 33.3%, but it is somewhere between those two points.

Someone had to have taken calculus recently who can remember how to do this kind of sh!t. It's 20 years in my rear view mirror and I didn't even like it then.

I think it would be lim x -> 0. Basically, as close as you can get to zero without touching it.

OK...let's try this more simply.

If the answer is 25%, my chances of being right are 50%
if it's 0%, 25%
and 50%, 25%

50+25+25=100
100/3=33.3%

Maybe it is 1/3 since there are 3 answers, but that doesn't seem right.

That's because the answer is B.
Tsar of DDO
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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3/26/2013 10:44:50 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:37:05 PM, phantom wrote:

I guess that's one way of looking at it.

and since it's a statistics question (what are the odds of?), I'm gonna go out on a limb and say it's the right one, since when asked the question, "what are the odds of randomly choosing 10, 4 answer multiple choice answers in a row correctly?", the answer in independent of the random multiple choice answers from which your subjects would be choosing.
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
malcolmxy
Posts: 2,855
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3/26/2013 10:46:39 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:43:48 PM, YYW wrote:

That's because the answer is B.

the answer to a coin toss odds question isn't even B (heads comes up 50.3% of the time because of the extra weight on that side of the coin...)
War is over, if you want it.

Meet Dr. Stupid and his assistants - http://www.debate.org...
YYW
Posts: 36,289
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3/26/2013 10:49:14 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:46:39 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:43:48 PM, YYW wrote:

That's because the answer is B.

the answer to a coin toss odds question isn't even B (heads comes up 50.3% of the time because of the extra weight on that side of the coin...)

You're actually close to the reason why B is the right answer, believe it or not.

At 3/26/2013 10:45:15 PM, Brony wrote:
mind f*ck

It is, because without knowing the question, evaluating the probability of selecting the correct answer, on the basis of presented options is impossible. Moreover, the question asks the probability of my being correct. On that basis, there are two options: either I will be correct, or I won't be correct. My odds, therefore, are 50%.

If you want me to explain it from the variable change aspect, though, I'd be happy to do that too.
Tsar of DDO
F-16_Fighting_Falcon
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3/26/2013 10:49:50 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 5:39:37 PM, DanT wrote:
If you choose an answer to this question at random, what is the chance you will be correct?

A. 25%
B. 50%
C. 0%
D. 25%

C
YYW
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3/26/2013 10:50:20 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:49:14 PM, YYW wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:46:39 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:43:48 PM, YYW wrote:

That's because the answer is B.

the answer to a coin toss odds question isn't even B (heads comes up 50.3% of the time because of the extra weight on that side of the coin...)

You're actually close to the reason why B is the right answer, believe it or not.

At 3/26/2013 10:45:15 PM, Brony wrote:
mind f*ck

It is, because without knowing the question, evaluating the probability of selecting the correct answer, on the basis of presented options is impossible with any degree of certainty beyond 25% -but that misses the point. Moreover, the question asks the probability of my being correct. On that basis, there are two options: either I will be correct, or I won't be correct. My odds, therefore, are 50%.

If you want me to explain it from the variable change aspect, though, I'd be happy to do that too.

*edit.
Tsar of DDO
dylancatlow
Posts: 12,245
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3/26/2013 10:55:34 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 3/26/2013 10:49:14 PM, YYW wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:46:39 PM, malcolmxy wrote:
At 3/26/2013 10:43:48 PM, YYW wrote:

That's because the answer is B.

the answer to a coin toss odds question isn't even B (heads comes up 50.3% of the time because of the extra weight on that side of the coin...)

You're actually close to the reason why B is the right answer, believe it or not.

At 3/26/2013 10:45:15 PM, Brony wrote:
mind f*ck

It is, because without knowing the question, evaluating the probability of selecting the correct answer, on the basis of presented options is impossible. Moreover, the question asks the probability of my being correct. On that basis, there are two options: either I will be correct, or I won't be correct. My odds, therefore, are 50%.

If you want me to explain it from the variable change aspect, though, I'd be happy to do that too.

". Moreover, the question asks the probability of my being correct. On that basis, there are two options: either I will be correct, or I won't be correct. My odds, therefore, are 50%."

Why are the odds 50-50 if there are two outcomes? Does that apply to the lottery?