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MAFIA GAME 3: Day phase 4

burningpuppies101
Posts: 1,268
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2/9/2009 4:51:25 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
We are in the final stretches of the game!

DAY PHASE 4.
ACTIVE:
1. Deadleaves93
2. Johnicle
3. mrbullfrog11
4. SportsGuru
5. Harlan
6. I-am-a-panda
7. Ournamestoolong
8. JBlake
9. Chestertonian
10. crackofdawn_Jr
11. theitalianstallion

DECEASED:
1.TheLwerd (Beloved Princess)
2.Dvhoose (Paranoid Cop)
3.YonRoku (Prostitute Mafia)
4.Logical Master (Townie Viligante)
5.KRFournier (Townie Doctor Paranoid)
6.Diabloschaosbroker (Mafia Goon)

Have at it!
Omnes te moriturum amant 

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ournamestoolong
Posts: 1,059
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2/9/2009 4:56:20 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
crackofdawn, at the end of day to you wanted to say something to LM but the night phaase ended. What was it?
I'll get by with a little help from my friends.

Ournamestoolong

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Harlan
Posts: 1,880
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2/9/2009 5:17:26 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Interesting, Our vigilante is dead, and yet a mafia was killed last night. That means that there is either a serial killer, another townie killing role I don't know about, or more than one mafia.
ournamestoolong
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2/9/2009 5:27:03 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 2/9/2009 5:17:26 PM, Harlan wrote:
Interesting, Our vigilante is dead, and yet a mafia was killed last night. That means that there is either a serial killer, another townie killing role I don't know about, or more than one mafia.

My guess is theres more than one mafia.
I'll get by with a little help from my friends.

Ournamestoolong

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DeadLeaves93
Posts: 591
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2/9/2009 5:31:12 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
That would make sense,
a question about serial killers though -

do they always have to kill at night, or can they choose not to?
"At last, my arm is complete again!"
burningpuppies101
Posts: 1,268
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2/9/2009 5:47:05 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 2/9/2009 5:31:12 PM, DeadLeaves93 wrote:
That would make sense,
a question about serial killers though -

do they always have to kill at night, or can they choose not to?

no.
Omnes te moriturum amant 

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theitalianstallion
Posts: 1,109
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2/9/2009 5:55:29 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Even with the possibility of a serial killer, I think it is much more likely that DCB got killed by another mafia.
When Reach fell, I came.
Johnicle
Posts: 888
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2/9/2009 6:17:32 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Here is my case for suspecting SportsGuru.

He said in the last day phase: "Wow... this game took an interesting turn while I was gone. With all things considered, I must vote Lynch Chestertonian."

It seems mafiaish (for some reason) that he would say odd things have happened but fails to offer any analysis. But MORE importantly, he voted for Chestertonian. It would make extreme sense that he did this to try to clear his name for voting for a mafia member, but he KNEW that this lynch would be blocked. So we can assume, that of the people that voted for Chestonian, there is at LEAST a few mafia in there. But SportsGuru sticks out for some reason (you know, one of those things where you have a gut feeling but have trouble saying exactly why)
crackofdawn_Jr
Posts: 1,350
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2/9/2009 6:20:23 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
crackofdawn, at the end of day to you wanted to say something to LM but the night phaase ended. What was it?

It was about who I'd kill I believe, not really sure now.

@Johnicle,

I understand what you mean by a gut feeling, but I'm not sure if we should go blindly off of one of those. If you can make a stronger case for it I'll consider voting. However, today I think we need to lynch somebody somehow.
There are three types of lies: lies, damn lies, and statistics"
-Mark Twain

"If at first you don't succeed, redefine success"

"Therefore love moderately. Long love doth so.
Too swift arrives as tardy as too slow."
- William Shakespeare

"There must be no majority decisions, but only responsible persons, and the word 'council' must be restored to its original meaning. Surely every man will have advisers by his side, but the decision will be made by one man."
- Adolf Hitler
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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2/9/2009 6:27:58 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Before casting my vote I would like to ask everyone who their top two or three suspects. If they have any reason and would like to share it, that would be helpful as well.

My top suspects currently are
Johnicle
CrackofDawn
theitalianstallion
Posts: 1,109
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2/9/2009 6:46:00 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 2/9/2009 6:27:58 PM, JBlake wrote:
Before casting my vote I would like to ask everyone who their top two or three suspects. If they have any reason and would like to share it, that would be helpful as well.

My top two are
I-am-a-panda
SportsGuru

Panda because he has been very inactive, which is uncharacteristic of him as he has over 1,000 posts.

SportsGuru because of Johnicle's logic.
When Reach fell, I came.
SportsGuru
Posts: 1,648
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2/9/2009 6:49:55 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
To respond to Johnicle:

1. Why I was vague: I had not been able to log on since Thursday because of a debate tournament (Texas City). When I finally logged on, I saw the mistake puppies made with the accidental role reveal, and proceeded to read through the remaining pages. I simply thought it was pretty obvious the the "interesting turn" would be the role reveal and the cancellation of the resulting lynch vote because of a death. I mean, what more analysis could I of offered? What happened happened, and while we certainly need to learn from past day phases, wasting space retelling what everybody knows has no benefit. I will try to be more specific with my posts next time.

2. My voting for Chestertonian: So, because I vote for the mafia to die, I am a mafia? This analysis, while valid, applies to every single other person who voted for Chestertonian, and one could make the counter argument stating that the mafia would expect this response and NOT vote, effectively bringing us to the already known conclusion that anyone could be a mafia. Regardless of who is under fire, we certainly need to have better proof than this before lynching

in response to JBlake:

Johnicle's recent attack on me brings him to my number two suspect, since I have no reason to suspect anyone else.

My number one suspect, no offense, is you JBlake. At the very beginning of the game, you showed very erratic behavior that seemed to attempt to add an element of chaos that would benefit the mafia voting to lynch 4 consecutive people. DvHoose questioned this, and he was the 1st person to die. You then answered to Logical-Master that if you were the mafia, he would be the one you killed first, and L-M was in fact one of the first people killed. It seems entirely possible to me that there was a deviation from the rest of your list to keep suspicion off yourself. And finally, according to Johnicle's logic, your voting for Chestertonian puts another strike against you.
SportsGuru
Posts: 1,648
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2/9/2009 7:05:05 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
JBlake's blatant refusal to give his reasoning behind his two suspects and his subsequent voting for a lynch he has provided no reasoning for have pushed my suspicions far enough. For these reasons and those listed in my last post, until new evidence/reasoning come into play, I vote: Lynch JBlake
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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2/9/2009 7:10:05 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
What do we know now?

We know there is likely two mafias. Two mafia members are dead (DiablosChaosBroker, YonRoku) and we have confirmation on a third one (Chestertonian). Chestertonian has confirmed there is at least one more mafia member (a mafia doctor). That makes four total mafia members we have confirmed. It seems more likely that there will be 6 total mafia members - or 3 mafia members per family.

The way I see it, there are 5 possible suspects, 3 of which are mafia. Here is my list of potential mafiosi:
1. crackofdawn_Jr
2. I-am-a-panda
3. Johnicle
4. Harlan
5. SportsGuru

Three of that list are definately mafia. Additionally, I have ranked them in order of mafia likelihood.
Johnicle
Posts: 888
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2/9/2009 7:33:25 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
The way I see it, there are 5 possible suspects, 3 of which are mafia. Here is my list of potential mafiosi:
1. crackofdawn_Jr
2. I-am-a-panda
3. Johnicle
4. Harlan
5. SportsGuru

um........... why?
SportsGuru
Posts: 1,648
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2/9/2009 7:35:52 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
I presume my addition to the list is my argumentation for your guilt (which has not been rebutted). if there are any other reasons, I also ask what these reasons are.
Johnicle
Posts: 888
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2/9/2009 7:43:25 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 2/9/2009 7:35:53 PM, JBlake wrote:
Burningpuppies101
If one mafia is fully destroyed (ie by the other mafia) will you announce that?

How can we even be sure that there is another mafia? This suspicion could very well be a Serial Killer. I know I urged BP to make one back in the origin of him suggesting to running a game.
JBlake
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2/9/2009 7:51:12 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 2/9/2009 7:35:52 PM, SportsGuru wrote:
I presume my addition to the list is my argumentation for your guilt (which has not been rebutted). if there are any other reasons, I also ask what these reasons are.

I can't fully explain why, because to do so would likely result in my death in the night phase, although I will probably be killed in the night phase anyway by the mafia. You are not added to that list because you have suspected me. You are on that list because you do not fit certain criteria.

If a rebuttal to your suspicion is necessary, here is it:

Your reasoning
My number one suspect, no offense, is you JBlake. At the very beginning of the game, you showed very erratic behavior that seemed to attempt to add an element of chaos that would benefit the mafia voting to lynch 4 consecutive people. DvHoose questioned this, and he was the 1st person to die. You then answered to Logical-Master that if you were the mafia, he would be the one you killed first, and L-M was in fact one of the first people killed. It seems entirely possible to me that there was a deviation from the rest of your list to keep suspicion off yourself. And finally, according to Johnicle's logic, your voting for Chestertonian puts another strike against you.

Rebuttal
I was displaying erratic behavior to see how some people would respond; to see if anyone would do something that might suggest their guilt; to see if I could somehow notice any blocs; to see if anyone would blindly follow my illogical behavior. This sort of behavior is not unknown, and has a precedent in the past few games.
I honestly thought DVhoose to be mafia based on his behavior. I didn't mind that he suggested my actions might be mafia-esk.
I answered LM because honestly. LM would be the biggest threat to the mafia because of his experience. Killing him early would leave no trail. It is highly unfortunate that he was killed so early because now we don't get to see what his questioning was leading to.
As to voting for Chestertonian, that does not suggest my guilt any more than it suggests yours. In fact, Johnicle moved up on my list of five because he tried to point the finger at you in such a slightly logical, but mostly illogical manner. In that way he could seem like he was contributing while he was pointing people toward an innocent. That is exactly what I did in the last game and what Johnicle did in the first game. Quite notably he did not exihibit this behavior in the last game - he was very logical.
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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2/9/2009 7:57:14 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 2/9/2009 7:43:25 PM, Johnicle wrote:
At 2/9/2009 7:35:53 PM, JBlake wrote:
Burningpuppies101
If one mafia is fully destroyed (ie by the other mafia) will you announce that?

How can we even be sure that there is another mafia? This suspicion could very well be a Serial Killer. I know I urged BP to make one back in the origin of him suggesting to running a game.

It isn't necessarily that there are two mafias that matters, per se. It is the number of mafiosi we are looking for. We have 4 confirmed (see my above post). 4 vs. 14 does not seem well weighted, so we can presume 5 if there is only 1 mafia. That would also make sense because it would be logical for there to be a godfather. In that case then 2 out of my list of 5 are mafia. If there are two mafias, then 6 is the logical number, meaning 3 of those 5 are mafia.

I believe there to be two mafias based on bp's statements before beginning the game. The way he has spoken about the game once it began suggest to me that there are two mafias.