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WW3 Scenario

Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,065
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4/21/2016 11:47:55 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
I'm working on a WW3 scenario. Here's what I've done so far:
http://future.wikia.com...
Thoughts?
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PetersSmith
Posts: 5,811
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4/21/2016 11:59:55 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/21/2016 11:47:55 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I'm working on a WW3 scenario. Here's what I've done so far:
http://future.wikia.com...
Thoughts?

I kind of disagree with this. I believe the international system is Tripolarity. I think that Russia and China just have too many differences to agree to fight for power projection and resources with each other. I think Russia would take a CSTO route and form their own "bloc", while China would try to mobilize their own allies, of which they don't have many by themselves. There is also no way in hell Iran would ever side with China and/or Russia. Syria maybe with Russia, but Iran wants its own Shia theocracy and would likely be its own subpower and have something like an Arab Union. I think with recent US-Cuba relations, Cuba would try to remain neutral or even side with the US this time. I also think you're largely excluding the possibility of Brazil (A BRIC nation) as wanting power projection as well. I think with these blocs the UN would probably not be around anymore and replaced with something else since it would be completely fractured. There's also a chance NATO nations might not be too keen on assisting the US (especially Turkey) and Germany, with its control over the EU, may also try something. Africa also doesn't seem to be involved here, and by 2018 or whatever I think they could play a significant role, since historically China and the US fought for dominance over it. I do agree there wouldn't be a nuclear war though.
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Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,065
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4/22/2016 12:08:59 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/21/2016 11:59:55 PM, PetersSmith wrote:
At 4/21/2016 11:47:55 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I'm working on a WW3 scenario. Here's what I've done so far:
http://future.wikia.com...
Thoughts?

I kind of disagree with this. I believe the international system is Tripolarity. I think that Russia and China just have too many differences to agree to fight for power projection and resources with each other. I think Russia would take a CSTO route and form their own "bloc", while China would try to mobilize their own allies, of which they don't have many by themselves. There is also no way in hell Iran would ever side with China and/or Russia. Syria maybe with Russia, but Iran wants its own Shia theocracy and would likely be its own subpower and have something like an Arab Union. I think with recent US-Cuba relations, Cuba would try to remain neutral or even side with the US this time. I also think you're largely excluding the possibility of Brazil (A BRIC nation) as wanting power projection as well. I think with these blocs the UN would probably not be around anymore and replaced with something else since it would be completely fractured. There's also a chance NATO nations might not be too keen on assisting the US (especially Turkey) and Germany, with its control over the EU, may also try something. Africa also doesn't seem to be involved here, and by 2018 or whatever I think they could play a significant role, since historically China and the US fought for dominance over it. I do agree there wouldn't be a nuclear war though.

The central idea behind the Shanghai Powers is that united they have the best chances of overthrowing the US-led western hegemony over the planet. The U.S. and its allies are maintaining the current system of "countries don't go around invading one another". If they defeat the U.S. they can each carve out regional spheres of influence where the U.S. has no power. They have mutual interests, Central Asia would appear to be the only point of conflicting interests between Russia and China, so I don't see why they wouldn't ally. They've done so in the recent past (mostly in the UN).
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Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,065
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4/22/2016 12:26:46 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/22/2016 12:19:00 AM, EndarkenedRationalist wrote:
It's a fun game. Not terribly realistic (China can't afford to go to war with the US, and they know it). But fun.

I'd appreciate it if you read the whole thing (it's really long, I know).
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

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famousdebater
Posts: 3,934
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5/2/2016 6:32:02 PM
Posted: 7 months ago
At 4/21/2016 11:47:55 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
I'm working on a WW3 scenario. Here's what I've done so far:
http://future.wikia.com...
Thoughts?

It's very detailed and extensive. Though this is very contingent on everything playing out as you state it does. It's possible but unlikely in my opinion given that there are so many things that have to go a certain way in order to reach the outcome of a WW3.
"Life calls the tune, we dance."
John Galsworthy
MasonicSlayer
Posts: 2,281
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5/6/2016 3:52:04 AM
Posted: 7 months ago
If only I had a TV to watch the snooze, I'd tell a vision of WW3 too, but his story sounds fun.