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North Korea shuffles leadership

Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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6/7/2010 3:03:43 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
http://www.cbc.ca...

Apparently the DPRK held one of its rare parliamentary sessions in order to approve changes in the leadership of the government, though they haven't replaced Kim yet. Instead, they're promoting Kim's brother-in-law, who is a backer of Kim's third son, Jong Un, who is expected to succeed Kim after his death.

The question, of course, is how long does Kim have, and what happens after his death? I personally believe this Jong Un won't be able to reign in competing generals and administrators, and there will pretty much be chaos in the little country - not something that is exactly good in relation to those nuclear weapons.

What does everyone else think?
I-am-a-panda
Posts: 15,380
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6/7/2010 3:09:59 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/7/2010 3:03:43 PM, Volkov wrote:
http://www.cbc.ca...

Apparently the DPRK held one of its rare parliamentary sessions in order to approve changes in the leadership of the government, though they haven't replaced Kim yet. Instead, they're promoting Kim's brother-in-law, who is a backer of Kim's third son, Jong Un, who is expected to succeed Kim after his death.

The question, of course, is how long does Kim have, and what happens after his death? I personally believe this Jong Un won't be able to reign in competing generals and administrators, and there will pretty much be chaos in the little country - not something that is exactly good in relation to those nuclear weapons.

What does everyone else think?

That's what I hope happens. Jong Un is the front runner after the eldest disgraced them by secretly visiting Disneyland a couple of years back, and the second son is "a little girl" in Kim's eye. I'm guessing anarchy, followed by U.N. intervention, followed by an unstable democracy filled with problems.
Pizza. I have enormous respect for Pizza.
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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6/7/2010 3:13:18 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/7/2010 3:09:59 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
That's what I hope happens. Jong Un is the front runner after the eldest disgraced them by secretly visiting Disneyland a couple of years back, and the second son is "a little girl" in Kim's eye. I'm guessing anarchy, followed by U.N. intervention, followed by an unstable democracy filled with problems.

Lol "little girl."

I agree. It'll be pure hell, especially for the civilians caught in between. Both China and South Korea will have to deal with hordes and hordes of refugees. UN intervention, maybe, but I suspect regional intervention before that. I think the US will stay away from any true combat role and possibly advise ROK and other regional forces.

This is all speculation, of course. It could very well happen though due to the threat of nuclear weapons getting into the wrong hands, especially for the regional powers where those weapons could hit easiest. Or, God forbid, one of the warring generals uses it on another North Korean enemy.
I-am-a-panda
Posts: 15,380
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6/7/2010 3:27:34 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/7/2010 3:13:18 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 6/7/2010 3:09:59 PM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
That's what I hope happens. Jong Un is the front runner after the eldest disgraced them by secretly visiting Disneyland a couple of years back, and the second son is "a little girl" in Kim's eye. I'm guessing anarchy, followed by U.N. intervention, followed by an unstable democracy filled with problems.

Lol "little girl."

And furthermore it's absolutely true.


I agree. It'll be pure hell, especially for the civilians caught in between. Both China and South Korea will have to deal with hordes and hordes of refugees. UN intervention, maybe, but I suspect regional intervention before that. I think the US will stay away from any true combat role and possibly advise ROK and other regional forces.

Meh, either the U.S. ill over or underplay it's hand as usual. Overplaying includes being directly involved, which will p*ss everyone off, or underplaying by staying out of it and missing a glorious chance to spread democracy in the heart of Red Asia.

As for refugees, it's going to have a big impact on North Korea. Huge areas could become depopulated quickly, which will mean workers will want a decent wage for their work. I don't think Koreans will face too much prospective abuse when they flee, which is good, and many will see it as a chance to start a new life.


This is all speculation, of course. It could very well happen though due to the threat of nuclear weapons getting into the wrong hands, especially for the regional powers where those weapons could hit easiest. Or, God forbid, one of the warring generals uses it on another North Korean enemy.

Regardless of how headstrong a warring general may be, they are definitely not stupid enough to use a nuclear weapon outside of North Korean borders. However, I can definitely see it happening.

The best case scenario is that the ROK doesn't do anything more than mobilise it's military for eventual combat and secure that border like crazy until one faction eventually wins out. Then, and only then, should they attempt to retake Korea in one foul swoop. Of course, China will definitely fund resistance movements, but I can see most Korea coming willingly into ROK's hands. With no Big Brother around, very few Koreans will be loyal to the North Korean regime.

Of course, if a nuclear weapon is used within North Korea, I see that as motive enough to sanction and use military force against that nation, regardless of their enemies.
Pizza. I have enormous respect for Pizza.
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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6/11/2010 2:03:07 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/7/2010 3:03:43 PM, Volkov wrote:
http://www.cbc.ca...

Apparently the DPRK held one of its rare parliamentary sessions in order to approve changes in the leadership of the government, though they haven't replaced Kim yet. Instead, they're promoting Kim's brother-in-law, who is a backer of Kim's third son, Jong Un, who is expected to succeed Kim after his death.

The question, of course, is how long does Kim have, and what happens after his death? I personally believe this Jong Un won't be able to reign in competing generals and administrators, and there will pretty much be chaos in the little country - not something that is exactly good in relation to those nuclear weapons.

What does everyone else think?

Hmmm. Total speculation on my part, but internal alliances tend to build slowly and then when there is a likely leader everything changes quickly. Those on the wrong side abandon their ambitions very fast out of fear of retribution, and the leader will gain strength quickly so that any opposition is quashed easily.
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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6/12/2010 4:34:07 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/12/2010 1:32:10 AM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
What I want to know is will this affect the World Cup?

Ha, its always possible. If Kim is dead before July 11th, who knows? I dunno if there is such a precedent.
I-am-a-panda
Posts: 15,380
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6/12/2010 7:55:21 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 6/12/2010 4:34:07 AM, Volkov wrote:
At 6/12/2010 1:32:10 AM, I-am-a-panda wrote:
What I want to know is will this affect the World Cup?

Ha, its always possible. If Kim is dead before July 11th, who knows? I dunno if there is such a precedent.

Lol, I'm watching North Korea vs. Ivory Coast, their last game, to see how many players make a break for it on the 90th minute :P.
Pizza. I have enormous respect for Pizza.