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Escalation or more of the same?

innomen
Posts: 10,052
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7/21/2010 2:13:24 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
http://edition.cnn.com...

Increased US sanctions toward N. Korea, can much good come from this? We've tried the carrot and the stick, and i really think neither makes much difference in changing the course of that country. They grab the carrot, and use the stick as propaganda and justification.
Anacharsis
Posts: 139
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7/21/2010 9:01:47 AM
Posted: 6 years ago
It's rather more of the same. This kind of limited sanction is really only intended to send a diplomatic message and doesn't hurt N. Korea or its leadership significantly. Of greater significance is the upcoming joint military exercises to be carried out with the U.S. and S. Korea. This is a stronger message that says unequivocally, we are prepared to fight you. N. Korea tends to take messages like this very seriously. I don't see this path turning out well, but it may be the best one open. Our interests, economic and moral, in S. Korea are arguably much greater than they were in the 1950s and China is just as big of a complication. I'm not sure N. Korean leaders think the U.S. would actively come and defend S. Korea on the ground again. So, the military exercises tells them that we will. We'll have to see how they take it.
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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7/21/2010 2:29:53 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 7/21/2010 9:01:47 AM, Anacharsis wrote:
It's rather more of the same. This kind of limited sanction is really only intended to send a diplomatic message and doesn't hurt N. Korea or its leadership significantly. Of greater significance is the upcoming joint military exercises to be carried out with the U.S. and S. Korea. This is a stronger message that says unequivocally, we are prepared to fight you. N. Korea tends to take messages like this very seriously. I don't see this path turning out well, but it may be the best one open. Our interests, economic and moral, in S. Korea are arguably much greater than they were in the 1950s and China is just as big of a complication. I'm not sure N. Korean leaders think the U.S. would actively come and defend S. Korea on the ground again. So, the military exercises tells them that we will. We'll have to see how they take it.

Well, i agree with most of that except, i think that China is a bigger complication (not necessarily militarily, but just more complicated) than in the 50's, and i do think that N.Korea believes we will come to the aid of S.Korea or else they would have invaded. I'm pretty sure they knew we would come to the aid of S. Korea, but now they are testing our resolve, and see how far they can go. A game of chicken.
cjl
Posts: 1,073
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7/21/2010 2:44:21 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 7/21/2010 2:13:24 AM, innomen wrote:
http://edition.cnn.com...

Increased US sanctions toward N. Korea, can much good come from this? We've tried the carrot and the stick, and i really think neither makes much difference in changing the course of that country. They grab the carrot, and use the stick as propaganda and justification.

NK deserves it. They are like Nazi Germany reborn.
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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7/21/2010 2:45:12 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 7/21/2010 2:44:21 PM, cjl wrote:
At 7/21/2010 2:13:24 AM, innomen wrote:
http://edition.cnn.com...

Increased US sanctions toward N. Korea, can much good come from this? We've tried the carrot and the stick, and i really think neither makes much difference in changing the course of that country. They grab the carrot, and use the stick as propaganda and justification.

NK deserves it. They are like Nazi Germany reborn.

Minus that little Jewish thing.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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7/23/2010 2:57:18 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
There is an outside chance that snctions might have some effect. Kim leads lavish lifestyle, said to consume tens of millions of dollars of luxury goods per year. There are also about 5000 Party members whose loyalty is ensured by lavish payoffs. A previous round of sanctions targeted the import of luxury goods from Hong Kong, and it seemed to have an effect. tThe current approach includes again targeting luxury goods. However, it's likely that by this time they have figured out an import route through China.

North Korea depends completely on China, and NK would crumble quickly if the Chinese decided to let them. Neither the Chinese nor the North Koreans have an respect for the US, so it's unlikely that US will be able to do anything. The Chinese and North Koreans still fear the Japanese. I therefore think that the US policy ought to be to transfer the problem of North Korea to the Japanese, including a public offer to give the Japanese nuclear weapons. (It is unlikely the Japanese would take nukes, but the standing offer would suffice.) I think that diplomatic moves in that direction wold prompt Chinese action to reign in the North Koreans.

Nixon said that when he met foreign adversaries he deliberately wated to leave the impression that we was nuts and might do anything. He said that helped in negotiations. Of course, for bipolar Nixon, this was easy, but the tip is sound.
lovelife
Posts: 14,629
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7/23/2010 3:06:54 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 7/23/2010 2:57:18 PM, RoyLatham wrote:

Nixon said that when he met foreign adversaries he deliberately wated to leave the impression that we was nuts and might do anything. He said that helped in negotiations. Of course, for bipolar Nixon, this was easy, but the tip is sound.

Thinking of Nixon like that makes him seem like a genius. Come to think of it, almost all of what I actually know about him comes from Futerama, and I don't trust that, so safe to say, I knew nothing about him really, other then he was a president.
Without Royal there is a hole inside of me, I have no choice but to leave
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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7/23/2010 10:32:42 PM
Posted: 6 years ago
At 7/23/2010 3:06:54 PM, lovelife wrote:

Thinking of Nixon like that makes him seem like a genius. Come to think of it, almost all of what I actually know about him comes from Futerama, and I don't trust that, so safe to say, I knew nothing about him really, other then he was a president.

Nixon was brilliant, but dishonest, paranoid, and subject to flying into intemperate rages. Among other things, he was a Quaker, founded the Environmental Protection Agency and the Occupational Health and Safety Agency, opened diplomatic relations with China, tried imposing wage and price controls, and negotiated the de facto surrender to North Vietnam that ended the war. Interesting character.