Total Posts:14|Showing Posts:1-14
Jump to topic:

Russia's Economy

Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,065
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM
Posted: 10 months ago
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
The-Voice-of-Truth
Posts: 6,542
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/14/2016 2:41:49 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?

This is very interesting and concerning. Just knowing Russia like I do, I would not be surprised if Russia would try something stupid -- like a military escalation. I could also see, if not the collapse of the national economy occurring, then I could see it entering a major depression. This could lead to the potential collapse of the nation, much like what happened to the USSR.
Suh dude

"Because we all know who the most important snowflake in the wasteland is... It's YOU, champ! You're a special snowflake." -Vaarka, 01:30 in the hangouts

"Screw laying siege to Korea. That usually takes an hour or so." -Vaarka

"Crap, what is my religion again?" -Vaarka

I'm Rick Harrison and this is my pawn shop. I work here with my old man and my son, Big Hoss, and in 23 years I've learned one thing. You never know what is gonna come through that door.
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,065
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/14/2016 9:41:58 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/14/2016 2:41:49 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?

This is very interesting and concerning. Just knowing Russia like I do, I would not be surprised if Russia would try something stupid -- like a military escalation. I could also see, if not the collapse of the national economy occurring, then I could see it entering a major depression. This could lead to the potential collapse of the nation, much like what happened to the USSR.

Military escalation for what reason? Starting a war may distract the Russian people and boost Putin's approval ratings, but ultimately only two things will help save the Russian economy:
1. A drastic increase in the price of oil
2. Massive reforms for the Russian economy to make it more than an oil shiekhdom of white people
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
j50wells
Posts: 345
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/14/2016 11:56:33 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
Yeah, but they needn't be like this, especially since Russia is almost an exact replica of the USA. Russia has a bread basket. They have metals. They have oil. They could be a powerful nation, but this won't happen because of Putin's mafia, which owns everything. You know what happens when a mafia government owns everything? The people work 20-30% less harder than they do in the USA, that's what happens. So they produce 20-30% less wealth, and less capital, and less food, and less technology. That's what it means.
The-Voice-of-Truth
Posts: 6,542
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 1:13:12 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/14/2016 9:41:58 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/14/2016 2:41:49 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?

This is very interesting and concerning. Just knowing Russia like I do, I would not be surprised if Russia would try something stupid -- like a military escalation. I could also see, if not the collapse of the national economy occurring, then I could see it entering a major depression. This could lead to the potential collapse of the nation, much like what happened to the USSR.

Military escalation for what reason? Starting a war may distract the Russian people and boost Putin's approval ratings, but ultimately only two things will help save the Russian economy:
1. A drastic increase in the price of oil
2. Massive reforms for the Russian economy to make it more than an oil shiekhdom of white people

I was thinking a forceful takeover of other nations' oil reserves. Something like an invasion of Saudi Arabia. That is what I meant by "military escalation."
Suh dude

"Because we all know who the most important snowflake in the wasteland is... It's YOU, champ! You're a special snowflake." -Vaarka, 01:30 in the hangouts

"Screw laying siege to Korea. That usually takes an hour or so." -Vaarka

"Crap, what is my religion again?" -Vaarka

I'm Rick Harrison and this is my pawn shop. I work here with my old man and my son, Big Hoss, and in 23 years I've learned one thing. You never know what is gonna come through that door.
ColeTrain
Posts: 4,291
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 2:17:20 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/15/2016 1:13:12 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/14/2016 9:41:58 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/14/2016 2:41:49 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?

This is very interesting and concerning. Just knowing Russia like I do, I would not be surprised if Russia would try something stupid -- like a military escalation. I could also see, if not the collapse of the national economy occurring, then I could see it entering a major depression. This could lead to the potential collapse of the nation, much like what happened to the USSR.

Military escalation for what reason? Starting a war may distract the Russian people and boost Putin's approval ratings, but ultimately only two things will help save the Russian economy:
1. A drastic increase in the price of oil
2. Massive reforms for the Russian economy to make it more than an oil shiekhdom of white people

I was thinking a forceful takeover of other nations' oil reserves. Something like an invasion of Saudi Arabia. That is what I meant by "military escalation."

Ouch. That wouldn't be good. I gave a speech one time about how Russia's economy is SO enveloped in oil. It's really quite interesting when you begin reading. But, honestly, do you think Russia would try something like that? It would definitely not be looked kindly upon by the international community. We saw what happened when they messed with Ukraine...

Another point -- which is unfortunate -- is that sanctions might become more common for Russia if they were to do so. The problem is, they haven't been empirically effective on Russia in the past. This is a good article about western sanctions on Russia, specifically. [https://www.foreignaffairs.com...]
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
The-Voice-of-Truth
Posts: 6,542
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 2:36:08 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/15/2016 2:17:20 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 1/15/2016 1:13:12 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/14/2016 9:41:58 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/14/2016 2:41:49 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?

This is very interesting and concerning. Just knowing Russia like I do, I would not be surprised if Russia would try something stupid -- like a military escalation. I could also see, if not the collapse of the national economy occurring, then I could see it entering a major depression. This could lead to the potential collapse of the nation, much like what happened to the USSR.

Military escalation for what reason? Starting a war may distract the Russian people and boost Putin's approval ratings, but ultimately only two things will help save the Russian economy:
1. A drastic increase in the price of oil
2. Massive reforms for the Russian economy to make it more than an oil shiekhdom of white people

I was thinking a forceful takeover of other nations' oil reserves. Something like an invasion of Saudi Arabia. That is what I meant by "military escalation."

Ouch. That wouldn't be good. I gave a speech one time about how Russia's economy is SO enveloped in oil. It's really quite interesting when you begin reading. But, honestly, do you think Russia would try something like that? It would definitely not be looked kindly upon by the international community. We saw what happened when they messed with Ukraine...

If you could provide the text, I would read it. And, yes, I really do think Russia would try something like that.

Another point -- which is unfortunate -- is that sanctions might become more common for Russia if they were to do so. The problem is, they haven't been empirically effective on Russia in the past. This is a good article about western sanctions on Russia, specifically. [https://www.foreignaffairs.com...]

Yeah...
Suh dude

"Because we all know who the most important snowflake in the wasteland is... It's YOU, champ! You're a special snowflake." -Vaarka, 01:30 in the hangouts

"Screw laying siege to Korea. That usually takes an hour or so." -Vaarka

"Crap, what is my religion again?" -Vaarka

I'm Rick Harrison and this is my pawn shop. I work here with my old man and my son, Big Hoss, and in 23 years I've learned one thing. You never know what is gonna come through that door.
ColeTrain
Posts: 4,291
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 2:38:27 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/15/2016 2:36:08 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
I was thinking a forceful takeover of other nations' oil reserves. Something like an invasion of Saudi Arabia. That is what I meant by "military escalation."

Ouch. That wouldn't be good. I gave a speech one time about how Russia's economy is SO enveloped in oil. It's really quite interesting when you begin reading. But, honestly, do you think Russia would try something like that? It would definitely not be looked kindly upon by the international community. We saw what happened when they messed with Ukraine...

If you could provide the text, I would read it. And, yes, I really do think Russia would try something like that.

I can't find it, lol. Sorry.

Another point -- which is unfortunate -- is that sanctions might become more common for Russia if they were to do so. The problem is, they haven't been empirically effective on Russia in the past. This is a good article about western sanctions on Russia, specifically. [https://www.foreignaffairs.com...]

Yeah...

That reading is good, if you're interested in that. It mentions quite a bit about oil, but the focus is its correlation to sanctions from the West.
"The right to 360 noscope noobs shall not be infringed!!!" -- tajshar2k
"So, to start off, I've never committed suicide." -- Vaarka
"I eat glue." -- brontoraptor
"I mean, at this rate, I'd argue for a ham sandwich presidency." -- ResponsiblyIrresponsible
"Overthrow Assad, heil jihad." -- 16kadams when trolling in hangout
"Hillary Clinton is not my favorite person ... and her campaign is as inspiring as a bowl of cottage cheese." -- YYW
The-Voice-of-Truth
Posts: 6,542
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 2:50:48 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/15/2016 2:38:27 PM, ColeTrain wrote:
At 1/15/2016 2:36:08 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
I was thinking a forceful takeover of other nations' oil reserves. Something like an invasion of Saudi Arabia. That is what I meant by "military escalation."

Ouch. That wouldn't be good. I gave a speech one time about how Russia's economy is SO enveloped in oil. It's really quite interesting when you begin reading. But, honestly, do you think Russia would try something like that? It would definitely not be looked kindly upon by the international community. We saw what happened when they messed with Ukraine...

If you could provide the text, I would read it. And, yes, I really do think Russia would try something like that.

I can't find it, lol. Sorry.

Another point -- which is unfortunate -- is that sanctions might become more common for Russia if they were to do so. The problem is, they haven't been empirically effective on Russia in the past. This is a good article about western sanctions on Russia, specifically. [https://www.foreignaffairs.com...]

Yeah...

That reading is good, if you're interested in that. It mentions quite a bit about oil, but the focus is its correlation to sanctions from the West.

I'll check it out.
Suh dude

"Because we all know who the most important snowflake in the wasteland is... It's YOU, champ! You're a special snowflake." -Vaarka, 01:30 in the hangouts

"Screw laying siege to Korea. That usually takes an hour or so." -Vaarka

"Crap, what is my religion again?" -Vaarka

I'm Rick Harrison and this is my pawn shop. I work here with my old man and my son, Big Hoss, and in 23 years I've learned one thing. You never know what is gonna come through that door.
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,065
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 7:38:39 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/15/2016 1:13:12 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/14/2016 9:41:58 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/14/2016 2:41:49 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?

This is very interesting and concerning. Just knowing Russia like I do, I would not be surprised if Russia would try something stupid -- like a military escalation. I could also see, if not the collapse of the national economy occurring, then I could see it entering a major depression. This could lead to the potential collapse of the nation, much like what happened to the USSR.

Military escalation for what reason? Starting a war may distract the Russian people and boost Putin's approval ratings, but ultimately only two things will help save the Russian economy:
1. A drastic increase in the price of oil
2. Massive reforms for the Russian economy to make it more than an oil shiekhdom of white people

I was thinking a forceful takeover of other nations' oil reserves. Something like an invasion of Saudi Arabia. That is what I meant by "military escalation."

Nah. Not directly, anyway, though they may ally with the Iranians to do something similar to this.
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
The-Voice-of-Truth
Posts: 6,542
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 7:53:26 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/15/2016 7:38:39 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/15/2016 1:13:12 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/14/2016 9:41:58 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/14/2016 2:41:49 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?

This is very interesting and concerning. Just knowing Russia like I do, I would not be surprised if Russia would try something stupid -- like a military escalation. I could also see, if not the collapse of the national economy occurring, then I could see it entering a major depression. This could lead to the potential collapse of the nation, much like what happened to the USSR.

Military escalation for what reason? Starting a war may distract the Russian people and boost Putin's approval ratings, but ultimately only two things will help save the Russian economy:
1. A drastic increase in the price of oil
2. Massive reforms for the Russian economy to make it more than an oil shiekhdom of white people

I was thinking a forceful takeover of other nations' oil reserves. Something like an invasion of Saudi Arabia. That is what I meant by "military escalation."

Nah. Not directly, anyway, though they may ally with the Iranians to do something similar to this.

It would still be a military escalation of some form.
Suh dude

"Because we all know who the most important snowflake in the wasteland is... It's YOU, champ! You're a special snowflake." -Vaarka, 01:30 in the hangouts

"Screw laying siege to Korea. That usually takes an hour or so." -Vaarka

"Crap, what is my religion again?" -Vaarka

I'm Rick Harrison and this is my pawn shop. I work here with my old man and my son, Big Hoss, and in 23 years I've learned one thing. You never know what is gonna come through that door.
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,065
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 7:56:36 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/15/2016 7:53:26 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/15/2016 7:38:39 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/15/2016 1:13:12 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/14/2016 9:41:58 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/14/2016 2:41:49 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?

This is very interesting and concerning. Just knowing Russia like I do, I would not be surprised if Russia would try something stupid -- like a military escalation. I could also see, if not the collapse of the national economy occurring, then I could see it entering a major depression. This could lead to the potential collapse of the nation, much like what happened to the USSR.

Military escalation for what reason? Starting a war may distract the Russian people and boost Putin's approval ratings, but ultimately only two things will help save the Russian economy:
1. A drastic increase in the price of oil
2. Massive reforms for the Russian economy to make it more than an oil shiekhdom of white people

I was thinking a forceful takeover of other nations' oil reserves. Something like an invasion of Saudi Arabia. That is what I meant by "military escalation."

Nah. Not directly, anyway, though they may ally with the Iranians to do something similar to this.

It would still be a military escalation of some form.

According to the Huffington Post a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran could send oil prices up to $250. Perhaps the Russians will try to start a Saudi-Iranian War?
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid
The-Voice-of-Truth
Posts: 6,542
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 8:25:58 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
At 1/15/2016 7:56:36 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/15/2016 7:53:26 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/15/2016 7:38:39 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/15/2016 1:13:12 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/14/2016 9:41:58 PM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
At 1/14/2016 2:41:49 PM, The-Voice-of-Truth wrote:
At 1/11/2016 1:53:42 AM, Vox_Veritas wrote:
Due to a large-scale weakening of the Chinese industrial machine (which has been largely dependent on oil) and an increased rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran (causing them to refuse to cooperate in lowering production) coupled with the upcoming lifting of sanctions against Iran (allowing them to export more oil) oil prices have crashed and will likely continue to go down for some time. Oil is now, as of January 10, 2016, priced at $32 a barrel, down from the $100 a barrel which was the norm less than 2 year ago; current oil prices are the lowest in 11 years.
Russia, whose economy is very heavily dependent on oil exports, has equivalent to $100 billion dollars in "emergency savings", and one worst-case scenario (which would play out either if oil prices stay where they are now or decrease further) has Russia's emergency savings running out within 1 year (that is, by the time Obama's successor takes office).
Will the end of Obama's term see a final Russian capitulation?

This is very interesting and concerning. Just knowing Russia like I do, I would not be surprised if Russia would try something stupid -- like a military escalation. I could also see, if not the collapse of the national economy occurring, then I could see it entering a major depression. This could lead to the potential collapse of the nation, much like what happened to the USSR.

Military escalation for what reason? Starting a war may distract the Russian people and boost Putin's approval ratings, but ultimately only two things will help save the Russian economy:
1. A drastic increase in the price of oil
2. Massive reforms for the Russian economy to make it more than an oil shiekhdom of white people

I was thinking a forceful takeover of other nations' oil reserves. Something like an invasion of Saudi Arabia. That is what I meant by "military escalation."

Nah. Not directly, anyway, though they may ally with the Iranians to do something similar to this.

It would still be a military escalation of some form.

According to the Huffington Post a war between Saudi Arabia and Iran could send oil prices up to $250. Perhaps the Russians will try to start a Saudi-Iranian War?

I could see that, actually.
Suh dude

"Because we all know who the most important snowflake in the wasteland is... It's YOU, champ! You're a special snowflake." -Vaarka, 01:30 in the hangouts

"Screw laying siege to Korea. That usually takes an hour or so." -Vaarka

"Crap, what is my religion again?" -Vaarka

I'm Rick Harrison and this is my pawn shop. I work here with my old man and my son, Big Hoss, and in 23 years I've learned one thing. You never know what is gonna come through that door.
Vox_Veritas
Posts: 7,065
Add as Friend
Challenge to a Debate
Send a Message
1/15/2016 10:53:59 PM
Posted: 10 months ago
Okay, so...a recap of Putin's options:

1. Do nothing
2. Reform the economy
3. Try to start a Saudi-Iranian war to raise the price of oil
4. Start a war between Russia and somebody else to distract the Russian people
5. Other
Call me Vox, the Resident Contrarian of debate.org.

The DDO Blog:
https://debatedotorg.wordpress.com...

#drinkthecoffeenotthekoolaid