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The most important philosophical question.

MouthWash
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11/14/2012 10:52:40 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Why do we live in this era? Imagine the people that lived before we migrated out of Africa; when the human population was less than 10,000. What were the odds of being one of those people? At least less than winning the lottery. So we can conclude that the likelihood of existing in a specific era is proportional to the amount of consciousness in existence during that time period.

But then what if human civilization spreads to the stars or the entire galaxy? What if quadrillions of humans exist in the future? What if the Singularity turns the entire universe into thinking matter? The odds of existing in this era would be infinitesimal. This is known as the 'Doomsday argument' because, from the conclusions drawn in probability theory, it strongly implies that some sort of event or decline will take place in humanity's future that will wipe out most of the thinking matter.

Some more analysis: [http://lesswrong.com...]
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
bossyburrito
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11/14/2012 10:53:49 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Heat death of the universe.
#UnbanTheMadman

"Some will sell their dreams for small desires
Or lose the race to rats
Get caught in ticking traps
And start to dream of somewhere
To relax their restless flight
Somewhere out of a memory of lighted streets on quiet nights..."

~ Rush
MouthWash
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11/14/2012 10:55:49 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 10:53:49 PM, bossyburrito wrote:
Heat death of the universe.

I hope this isn't serious.
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
thett3
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11/14/2012 10:59:14 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
you're kinda assuming that we could possibly exist in any other era. The thing is that you, mouthwash, only do and only possibly can exist in this era because that is when you were conceived. You did not exist before, your existence started when your parents had sex, and even the slightest change would have led to you not existing. You or anyone, unlike math or possibly God, are not a necessary thing for the univserse, you exist by chance and chance alone
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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
MouthWash
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11/14/2012 11:05:03 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Don't you mean father? And no, the odds of me existing here are not defined by "me" as a person. It is defined by my consciousness.
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
MouthWash
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11/14/2012 11:05:45 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:05:03 PM, MouthWash wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Don't you mean father? And no, the odds of me existing here are not defined by "me" as a person. It is defined by my consciousness.

Wait, scratch that, I wasn't thinking. >.>
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
thett3
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11/14/2012 11:07:36 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:05:03 PM, MouthWash wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Don't you mean father? And no, the odds of me existing here are not defined by "me" as a person. It is defined by my consciousness.

But your consciousness only exists because you do. Unless you can prove that there is some universal consciousness force or that your mind existed before neurons were formed in your brain your question doesnt really make sense. If your parents waited a year to have a child, your consciousness would not exist. Someone else's would
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
phantom
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11/14/2012 11:07:38 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Who knows wtf consciousness is. Maybe every thing you mentioned is just the genetics, moleculer make-up etc...but the same consciousness is there regardless. If you think of consciousness more as something that inhabits the body, than that might lead credence to that view. (But that would probably have to entail dualism and I'm a materialist so why the heck am I making these speculations??)
"Music is a zen-like ecstatic state where you become the new man of the future, the Nietzschean merger of Apollo and Dionysus." Ray Manzarek (The Doors)
thett3
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11/14/2012 11:09:30 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:07:38 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Who knows wtf consciousness is. Maybe every thing you mentioned is just the genetics, moleculer make-up etc...but the same consciousness is there regardless. If you think of consciousness more as something that inhabits the body, than that might lead credence to that view. (But that would probably have to entail dualism and I'm a materialist so why the heck am I making these speculations??)

Lol I dont know either, but I certainly dont think it exists BEFORE conception. That would entail that it has existed forever...wouldnt it? FREEDO's theory (consciousness as a universal force and humans and other sentient beings as concentration points for it) may clear some of this up...but good luck proving that
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
MouthWash
Posts: 2,607
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11/14/2012 11:11:20 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Has anyone clicked on the link?
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
thett3
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11/14/2012 11:12:54 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:11:20 PM, MouthWash wrote:
Has anyone clicked on the link?

I havent because I reject your initial thesis that consciousness is anything more than a physical thing but I'll read it since it seems interesting :)
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
phantom
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11/14/2012 11:16:12 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:09:30 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:07:38 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Who knows wtf consciousness is. Maybe every thing you mentioned is just the genetics, moleculer make-up etc...but the same consciousness is there regardless. If you think of consciousness more as something that inhabits the body, than that might lead credence to that view. (But that would probably have to entail dualism and I'm a materialist so why the heck am I making these speculations??)

Lol I dont know either, but I certainly dont think it exists BEFORE conception. That would entail that it has existed forever...wouldnt it? FREEDO's theory (consciousness as a universal force and humans and other sentient beings as concentration points for it) may clear some of this up...but good luck proving that

Well you're Christian right? So I wouldn't have much trouble accepting the viewpoint from your perspective since the soul would be what gives consciousness and Christians often believe heaven/hell exists out of the dimension of time. So there would be no problem with the soul existing prior to conception really. If mind-body dualism is correct, the material body does not decide the mind. Actually it would seem to contradict dualism to say a different conception scenario would arise to a different consciousness.
"Music is a zen-like ecstatic state where you become the new man of the future, the Nietzschean merger of Apollo and Dionysus." Ray Manzarek (The Doors)
phantom
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11/14/2012 11:16:54 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:11:20 PM, MouthWash wrote:
Has anyone clicked on the link?

Yes but I haven't finished reading it.
"Music is a zen-like ecstatic state where you become the new man of the future, the Nietzschean merger of Apollo and Dionysus." Ray Manzarek (The Doors)
thett3
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11/14/2012 11:18:11 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:16:12 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:09:30 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:07:38 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Who knows wtf consciousness is. Maybe every thing you mentioned is just the genetics, moleculer make-up etc...but the same consciousness is there regardless. If you think of consciousness more as something that inhabits the body, than that might lead credence to that view. (But that would probably have to entail dualism and I'm a materialist so why the heck am I making these speculations??)

Lol I dont know either, but I certainly dont think it exists BEFORE conception. That would entail that it has existed forever...wouldnt it? FREEDO's theory (consciousness as a universal force and humans and other sentient beings as concentration points for it) may clear some of this up...but good luck proving that

Well you're Christian right? So I wouldn't have much trouble accepting the viewpoint from your perspective since the soul would be what gives consciousness and Christians often believe heaven/hell exists out of the dimension of time. So there would be no problem with the soul existing prior to conception really. If mind-body dualism is correct, the material body does not decide the mind. Actually it would seem to contradict dualism to say a different conception scenario would arise to a different consciousness.

True, honestly I dont know what my view on that is. Maybe God caused all of us to exist, or maybe not. But from a clearly scientific basis I just dont see any evidence for what MW is saying
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
MouthWash
Posts: 2,607
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11/14/2012 11:20:47 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:18:11 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:16:12 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:09:30 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:07:38 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Who knows wtf consciousness is. Maybe every thing you mentioned is just the genetics, moleculer make-up etc...but the same consciousness is there regardless. If you think of consciousness more as something that inhabits the body, than that might lead credence to that view. (But that would probably have to entail dualism and I'm a materialist so why the heck am I making these speculations??)

Lol I dont know either, but I certainly dont think it exists BEFORE conception. That would entail that it has existed forever...wouldnt it? FREEDO's theory (consciousness as a universal force and humans and other sentient beings as concentration points for it) may clear some of this up...but good luck proving that

Well you're Christian right? So I wouldn't have much trouble accepting the viewpoint from your perspective since the soul would be what gives consciousness and Christians often believe heaven/hell exists out of the dimension of time. So there would be no problem with the soul existing prior to conception really. If mind-body dualism is correct, the material body does not decide the mind. Actually it would seem to contradict dualism to say a different conception scenario would arise to a different consciousness.

True, honestly I dont know what my view on that is. Maybe God caused all of us to exist, or maybe not. But from a clearly scientific basis I just dont see any evidence for what MW is saying

Intuitively, I disagree with you, but I don't know how to put it to words.
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
thett3
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11/14/2012 11:22:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:20:47 PM, MouthWash wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:18:11 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:16:12 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:09:30 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:07:38 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Who knows wtf consciousness is. Maybe every thing you mentioned is just the genetics, moleculer make-up etc...but the same consciousness is there regardless. If you think of consciousness more as something that inhabits the body, than that might lead credence to that view. (But that would probably have to entail dualism and I'm a materialist so why the heck am I making these speculations??)

Lol I dont know either, but I certainly dont think it exists BEFORE conception. That would entail that it has existed forever...wouldnt it? FREEDO's theory (consciousness as a universal force and humans and other sentient beings as concentration points for it) may clear some of this up...but good luck proving that

Well you're Christian right? So I wouldn't have much trouble accepting the viewpoint from your perspective since the soul would be what gives consciousness and Christians often believe heaven/hell exists out of the dimension of time. So there would be no problem with the soul existing prior to conception really. If mind-body dualism is correct, the material body does not decide the mind. Actually it would seem to contradict dualism to say a different conception scenario would arise to a different consciousness.

True, honestly I dont know what my view on that is. Maybe God caused all of us to exist, or maybe not. But from a clearly scientific basis I just dont see any evidence for what MW is saying

Intuitively, I disagree with you, but I don't know how to put it to words.

Yeah this stuff is hard to explain,I feel like I sound like an idiot half the time. If you think of how to explain it I would love to hear it though :)
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Sidewalker
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11/15/2012 3:58:12 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
The argument used flawed reasoning and a misapplication of probability theory.

If you were to apply the same reasoning to a shuffled deck of cards, you could recognize the probability of the particular order of the cards as being infinitesimally small, something like 1 in 10 to the 50 power, and then statistically conclude that because the probability is so low for the particular outcome, there must be some causal reason favoring that particular order of cards. In using this reasoning to predict future outcomes, you would then be arbitrarily assigning a higher probability to that ordering of cards rather than another order based on a presumption that the probability of the initial order was so small, that is must be higher for unknown reasons.

The reasoning of the argument is flawed because it takes a simple average and statistically treats it as a weighted average to arrive at a false outcome, correctly recognizing the average as a weighted average produces a prediction of an infinite number of humans, as below.

To recognize this you would need to apply the doomsday analysis to every point in time since humans have been in existence and then statistically recognize what the series of weighted averages from the analysis tells you. Assuming a series beginning with one human, the first, and then growing to 6 billion, at every point in time the doomsday analysis will give you a doomsday prediction, the earlier on the timeline, the closer the doomsday is because the assumption was that the number of humans at each point in time was statistically speaking, probably the median number that will ever exist. You get a series of outcomes with a doomsday that is constantly receding and accelerating in time, which is to say it is moving out farther with each moment in time. Applying statistical calculus to the series you get a probability of a doomsday ever occurring that approaches zero, and a probability of total human existence that approaches infinity.
"It is one of the commonest of mistakes to consider that the limit of our power of perception is also the limit of all there is to perceive." " C. W. Leadbeater
MouthWash
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11/15/2012 4:28:00 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/15/2012 3:58:12 AM, Sidewalker wrote:
The argument used flawed reasoning and a misapplication of probability theory.

If you were to apply the same reasoning to a shuffled deck of cards, you could recognize the probability of the particular order of the cards as being infinitesimally small, something like 1 in 10 to the 50 power, and then statistically conclude that because the probability is so low for the particular outcome, there must be some causal reason favoring that particular order of cards. In using this reasoning to predict future outcomes, you would then be arbitrarily assigning a higher probability to that ordering of cards rather than another order based on a presumption that the probability of the initial order was so small, that is must be higher for unknown reasons.

The reasoning of the argument is flawed because it takes a simple average and statistically treats it as a weighted average to arrive at a false outcome, correctly recognizing the average as a weighted average produces a prediction of an infinite number of humans, as below.

To recognize this you would need to apply the doomsday analysis to every point in time since humans have been in existence and then statistically recognize what the series of weighted averages from the analysis tells you. Assuming a series beginning with one human, the first, and then growing to 6 billion, at every point in time the doomsday analysis will give you a doomsday prediction, the earlier on the timeline, the closer the doomsday is because the assumption was that the number of humans at each point in time was statistically speaking, probably the median number that will ever exist. You get a series of outcomes with a doomsday that is constantly receding and accelerating in time, which is to say it is moving out farther with each moment in time. Applying statistical calculus to the series you get a probability of a doomsday ever occurring that approaches zero, and a probability of total human existence that approaches infinity.

I am going to be up all night now lol.
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
Lordknukle
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11/15/2012 8:39:27 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Why can't most of philosophy be something a tad more useful and not completely and utterly irrelevant to life?
"Easy is the descent to Avernus, for the door to the Underworld lies upon both day and night. But to retrace your steps and return to the breezes above- that's the task, that's the toil."
phantom
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11/15/2012 9:35:58 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/15/2012 8:39:27 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
Why can't most of philosophy be something a tad more useful and not completely and utterly irrelevant to life?

Not everything is based on practicality, like casual sex. Philosophy is mind sex, k?
"Music is a zen-like ecstatic state where you become the new man of the future, the Nietzschean merger of Apollo and Dionysus." Ray Manzarek (The Doors)
Sidewalker
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11/16/2012 6:59:31 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/15/2012 4:28:00 PM, MouthWash wrote:
At 11/15/2012 3:58:12 AM, Sidewalker wrote:
The argument used flawed reasoning and a misapplication of probability theory.

If you were to apply the same reasoning to a shuffled deck of cards, you could recognize the probability of the particular order of the cards as being infinitesimally small, something like 1 in 10 to the 50 power, and then statistically conclude that because the probability is so low for the particular outcome, there must be some causal reason favoring that particular order of cards. In using this reasoning to predict future outcomes, you would then be arbitrarily assigning a higher probability to that ordering of cards rather than another order based on a presumption that the probability of the initial order was so small, that is must be higher for unknown reasons.

The reasoning of the argument is flawed because it takes a simple average and statistically treats it as a weighted average to arrive at a false outcome, correctly recognizing the average as a weighted average produces a prediction of an infinite number of humans, as below.

To recognize this you would need to apply the doomsday analysis to every point in time since humans have been in existence and then statistically recognize what the series of weighted averages from the analysis tells you. Assuming a series beginning with one human, the first, and then growing to 6 billion, at every point in time the doomsday analysis will give you a doomsday prediction, the earlier on the timeline, the closer the doomsday is because the assumption was that the number of humans at each point in time was statistically speaking, probably the median number that will ever exist. You get a series of outcomes with a doomsday that is constantly receding and accelerating in time, which is to say it is moving out farther with each moment in time. Applying statistical calculus to the series you get a probability of a doomsday ever occurring that approaches zero, and a probability of total human existence that approaches infinity.

I am going to be up all night now lol.

But I refuted the argument that doomsday is around the corner, that should make you sleep better.

That is, unless you meant you will be up all night partying in celebration of the fact that Sidewalker has gone and saved the human race from extinction.

You're welcome.
"It is one of the commonest of mistakes to consider that the limit of our power of perception is also the limit of all there is to perceive." " C. W. Leadbeater
Sidewalker
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11/16/2012 4:24:30 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Sheesh, I go and save the human race from extinction and not so much as a thank you even.

Ungrateful bastards.
"It is one of the commonest of mistakes to consider that the limit of our power of perception is also the limit of all there is to perceive." " C. W. Leadbeater
MouthWash
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11/16/2012 5:14:32 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 11/16/2012 4:24:30 PM, Sidewalker wrote:
Sheesh, I go and save the human race from extinction and not so much as a thank you even.

Ungrateful bastards.

Thank you?
"Well, that gives whole new meaning to my assassination. If I was going to die anyway, perhaps I should leave the Bolsheviks' descendants some Christmas cookies instead of breaking their dishes and vodka bottles in their sleep." -Tsar Nicholas II (YYW)
Eitan_Zohar
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2/23/2013 10:37:02 PM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 11/14/2012 11:22:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:20:47 PM, MouthWash wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:18:11 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:16:12 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:09:30 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:07:38 PM, phantom wrote:
At 11/14/2012 11:00:44 PM, thett3 wrote:
It isnt as if you were randomly selected to appear in any set era or whatever, you COULD ONLY exist here and now. Your existence is defined by the times you live in. If your parents waited even a second to have sex you would not exist because a different sperm would have reached your mother, creating a different child.

Who knows wtf consciousness is. Maybe every thing you mentioned is just the genetics, moleculer make-up etc...but the same consciousness is there regardless. If you think of consciousness more as something that inhabits the body, than that might lead credence to that view. (But that would probably have to entail dualism and I'm a materialist so why the heck am I making these speculations??)

Lol I dont know either, but I certainly dont think it exists BEFORE conception. That would entail that it has existed forever...wouldnt it? FREEDO's theory (consciousness as a universal force and humans and other sentient beings as concentration points for it) may clear some of this up...but good luck proving that

Well you're Christian right? So I wouldn't have much trouble accepting the viewpoint from your perspective since the soul would be what gives consciousness and Christians often believe heaven/hell exists out of the dimension of time. So there would be no problem with the soul existing prior to conception really. If mind-body dualism is correct, the material body does not decide the mind. Actually it would seem to contradict dualism to say a different conception scenario would arise to a different consciousness.

True, honestly I dont know what my view on that is. Maybe God caused all of us to exist, or maybe not. But from a clearly scientific basis I just dont see any evidence for what MW is saying

Intuitively, I disagree with you, but I don't know how to put it to words.

Yeah this stuff is hard to explain,I feel like I sound like an idiot half the time. If you think of how to explain it I would love to hear it though :)

OK, let me try and explain this. I am not saying that I, Ethan Zohar, could have been born in 200 BC to a Gallic tribe, nor am I saying my "mind" is free and untied to my current body and could have wound up attached to any person in history. What I am saying is that we are ignorant of our position within human existence, and only by calculating how many humans have lived, how many there were at all different periods of history, and where population trends appear to be headed can we figure out the odds of us being born in any particular era. Understand now?

Here is the Wikipedia page on the Doomsday argument: [http://en.wikipedia.org...] There is quite a lot of math and probability theory involved. I can't begin to understand it (or Sidewalker's response) but maybe somebody can.

Also, the DA made it to Cracked, which automatically makes it legit and me a genius for having beat them to their material: [http://www.cracked.com...]
"It is my ambition to say in ten sentences what others say in a whole book."
natoast
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2/24/2013 10:53:15 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 11/14/2012 10:52:40 PM, MouthWash wrote:
Why do we live in this era? Imagine the people that lived before we migrated out of Africa; when the human population was less than 10,000. What were the odds of being one of those people? At least less than winning the lottery. So we can conclude that the likelihood of existing in a specific era is proportional to the amount of consciousness in existence during that time period.

But then what if human civilization spreads to the stars or the entire galaxy? What if quadrillions of humans exist in the future? What if the Singularity turns the entire universe into thinking matter? The odds of existing in this era would be infinitesimal. This is known as the 'Doomsday argument' because, from the conclusions drawn in probability theory, it strongly implies that some sort of event or decline will take place in humanity's future that will wipe out most of the thinking matter.

Some more analysis: [http://lesswrong.com...]

This is pointless. From this, the first homo sapiens could conclude that they would be extinct in the next 100 years.
natoast
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2/24/2013 11:00:37 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
This does bring up an interesting question. Why do I exist as an individual? If I hadn't been conceived at the exact minute I was, and if my parents hadn't been conceived at the exact minute they where, and on and on, I wouldn't exist. The probability is unfathomably low that I exist. Therefore, I can conclude that I don't. Dang.
dylancatlow
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2/24/2013 11:02:44 AM
Posted: 3 years ago
At 2/24/2013 11:00:37 AM, natoast wrote:
This does bring up an interesting question. Why do I exist as an individual? If I hadn't been conceived at the exact minute I was, and if my parents hadn't been conceived at the exact minute they where, and on and on, I wouldn't exist. The probability is unfathomably low that I exist. Therefore, I can conclude that I don't. Dang.

But don't you see, there was nothing to come from. You simply are, for if you weren't, you wouldn't be.