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2012 GOP Nomination

FREEDO
Posts: 21,057
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5/2/2011 11:56:13 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Ron Paul will probably win the GOP nomination. It is, however, unlikely for him to win the general election.
GRAND POOBAH OF DDO

fnord
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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5/2/2011 11:59:26 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Election day is a year away, hopefully this triumph for Obama fizzles out in a month and everyone will realize the the U.S. is still crumbling, more civil liberties being taken away, the devaluation of the dollar, etc.

Plus, Ron Paul is a smart guy, he may be able to put a dagger in the coffin of Obama's undeserved credit for capturing Osama. He may be able to use it as a talking point and use it against Obama.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
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"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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5/3/2011 12:07:23 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Right now Romney is the likely candidate, but it's really too soon to tell.

Ron Paul's isolationist foreign policy is not well known, but if he starts to look like a serious contender, his opponents will attack that with great effect. He's also embraced some conspiracy theories. It's not clear to me if he just doesn't want to alienate any support group or whether he's really into it, but he's left himself open to being attacked as a nutcase. Nonetheless, the debates would benefit from a dose of his libertarian economics.
GeoLaureate8
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5/3/2011 12:30:10 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/3/2011 12:07:23 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Right now Romney is the likely candidate, but it's really too soon to tell.

Ron Paul's isolationist foreign policy

He's not an isolationist. He's just against aggressive war. He supports trade and commerce with other countries and even helping them. He just doesn't want to fight other people's wars.

is not well known,

A lot of his policies aren't well known, and many of them will probably remain not well known.

but if he starts to look like a serious contender,

He is a serious contender, if not the top contender.

his opponents will attack that with great effect.

Yeah, and to his benefit, the "isolationist" attack is about the only thing his opponents ever bring to light against him. I could think of a whole bunch of radical policies to pit against him that his opponents fail to bring up.

He's also embraced some conspiracy theories. It's not clear to me if he just doesn't want to alienate any support group or whether he's really into it, but he's left himself open to being attacked as a nutcase.

Yes, he believes them. He doesn't support things just to maintain popularity. If that were the case, then he'd also support 9/11 conspiracy theories just to keep their support, yet he doesn't.

Nonetheless, the debates would benefit from a dose of his libertarian economics.

The debates will be rather one sided because he always wins.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
J.Kenyon
Posts: 4,194
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5/3/2011 12:32:07 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/3/2011 12:07:23 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Right now Romney is the likely candidate, but it's really too soon to tell.

I will be very, very upset if Romney wins. I'm surprised he's even considered viable given his total lack of principles. He was for abortion before he was against abortion, he was for TARP before he was against TARP, he was for the auto bailout before he was against the auto bailout, he was for gay marriage before he as against gay marriage, he was for ObamaCare Lite in Massachusetts before he opposed it at the national level. What an absolute joke. How pathetic. He's like TAA, it's all a fashion show with him. And yet, the polls show Americans are really dumb enough to vote for him.

Ron Paul's isolationist foreign policy is not well known, but if he starts to look like a serious contender, his opponents will attack that with great effect.

He hasn't exactly been quiet about it. His exchange with Giuliani is what really started bringing him nationwide attention. He's repeatedly said the first thing he would do as president would be to bring all the troops home. Sometimes during the '08 campaign I wished he would just keep mum about the foreign policy stuff the way Rand does in order to appeal more to the GOP base.
meowmixxx
Posts: 68
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5/3/2011 12:38:01 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Another problem for Ron Paul is also that he can't really move the base when push comes to shove, like other orators can. Other orators "get" the republican base way better than Ron Paul does. While I don't necessarily agree with all of his ideas, Ron Paul is intelligent, but he also comes off as intelligent. That can be off putting to a lot of the base. People want candidates that remind them of themselves, except more charismatic and with "ideas". The truth is that a lot of candidates pretend to be simpler than they actually are, in order to win the "I'd have a beer with 'im" vote. I'm not sure Ron Paul could do that.
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GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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5/3/2011 12:42:34 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/3/2011 12:38:01 AM, meowmixxx wrote:
Another problem for Ron Paul is also that he can't really move the base when push comes to shove, like other orators can. Other orators "get" the republican base way better than Ron Paul does. While I don't necessarily agree with all of his ideas, Ron Paul is intelligent, but he also comes off as intelligent. That can be off putting to a lot of the base. People want candidates that remind them of themselves, except more charismatic and with "ideas". The truth is that a lot of candidates pretend to be simpler than they actually are, in order to win the "I'd have a beer with 'im" vote. I'm not sure Ron Paul could do that.

Obama is intelligent and quite eloquent and he still got elected. I don't see why an intelligent speaker like Ron Paul can't either.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
meowmixxx
Posts: 68
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5/3/2011 12:48:55 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
That's why I was so surprised at Obama's election, but I think in his case, there were other circumstances that led to his election. Obama also wasn't as nuanced in his public speaking as he could have been, and he definitely dumbed himself down. The man was a senior lecturer at U. Chicago law school. But something is interesting: You never heard that touted around. It was as though he wanted to avoid being known as a professor, and instead he tried to focus himself more as an everyman; a strategy that works pretty often (Bush and Gore is an example that I can think of, though Gore has the personality of balsa wood.) I might have been too strong in saying that because he's smart, he won't win, but I think it can be played against him, because of the nuance of his positions.
People want bumper sticker positions (War on Terror, Change, blah blah blah), and I feel like Ron Paul's positions are more focused in the realities of how things are. To put it more clearly, I don't know if he'd be willing to compromise the specifics of his goals in order to make them more "clear."
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BennyW
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5/3/2011 1:05:53 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/2/2011 11:56:13 PM, FREEDO wrote:
Ron Paul will probably win the GOP nomination. It is, however, unlikely for him to win the general election.

You think so? I am a fan of Ron Paul and would vote for him in the primary. If he makes it in the general election I think many people would just vote for whoever was against Obama, of course if "his victory" against terrorism still has not fizzled then Obama would be hard to beat by anyone.
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It's pretty lazy to quote things you disagree with, call it stupid and move on, rather than arguing with the person. -000ike
jat93
Posts: 1,440
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5/3/2011 9:12:56 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/3/2011 12:38:01 AM, meowmixxx wrote:
The truth is that a lot of candidates pretend to be simpler than they actually are, in order to win the "I'd have a beer with 'im" vote. I'm not sure Ron Paul could do that.

It's funny you mention that, because, nevermind the fact that I'm underage, if I could see myself having a beer with one politician, it would be Ron Paul. He's just the most genuine and honest politician out there, sometimes when he gets really into a debate or speech I can see him saying the same thing to someone in a one-on-one political conversation. I cannot say that about most politicians.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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5/3/2011 9:38:22 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
Here's a sample of Ron Paul's apparent embrace of conspiracy theory:

"The CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) and the Trilateral Commission exist….there is a move toward a North American union…" Paul said in response to a YouTube questioner that wondered if Paul really believes this stuff.
http://www.postonpolitics.com...

Paul is a frequent guest on a talk show run by Alex Jones, who is IMHO a conspiracy theory nutcase.

Again, I don't know to what extent Paul really believes in conspiracy theories. He may be just hesitant to alienate any support group.
RoyLatham
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5/3/2011 9:58:19 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/3/2011 12:48:55 AM, meowmixxx wrote:
"The man was a senior lecturer at U. Chicago law school. But something is interesting: You never heard that touted around. It was as though he wanted to avoid being known as a professor, and instead he tried to focus himself more as an everyman; a strategy that works pretty often "

Obama was heavily touted as a genius by his supporters, a tactic that Kerry used against Bush. The liberal model of government is that commoners need to be led by a philosopher-elite who takes care of them, in return for the commoners surrendering their economic freedom.

It turned out that Kerry and Bush had about the same IQ test scores, around 125, and both had about the same grades at Yale. Kerry concealed his test scores during the campaign. Obama has concealed all his test scores, but we know he did not make the list of National Merit Scholarship qualifiers, which requires an IQ of 130. It's likely that Obama, Bush, and Kerry are all about the same IQ, in the mid-120s. That's certainly good enough to get a person through a good grad school, and to be president.

Being president mainly requires intellectual skills other than intelligence, given some minimum level around that of Obama, Kerry, and Bush. Nixon and Carter were among our most intelligent presidents. Both failed.
anarcho-capitalist
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5/5/2011 2:46:10 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/3/2011 9:38:22 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Here's a sample of Ron Paul's apparent embrace of conspiracy theory:

"The CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) and the Trilateral Commission exist….there is a move toward a North American union…" Paul said in response to a YouTube questioner that wondered if Paul really believes this stuff.
http://www.postonpolitics.com...

Paul is a frequent guest on a talk show run by Alex Jones, who is IMHO a conspiracy theory nutcase.

Again, I don't know to what extent Paul really believes in conspiracy theories. He may be just hesitant to alienate any support group.

He has denied being a Truther or a Birther. No one denies the existence of the CFR or the Trilateral Commision. They have their own websites if you care to check. There was a successful move toward a European Union, and many politicians calling for a global government would obviously need an American union to accomplish that.
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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5/5/2011 3:17:16 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/3/2011 9:38:22 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Here's a sample of Ron Paul's apparent embrace of conspiracy theory:

"The CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) and the Trilateral Commission exist….there is a move toward a North American union…" Paul said in response to a YouTube questioner that wondered if Paul really believes this stuff.
http://www.postonpolitics.com...

The North American Union is a very plausible theory. I can't say for certain if there is a move towards a north american union, but it's a more plausible theory then reptilians or 9/11 being an inside job.

Paul is a frequent guest on a talk show run by Alex Jones, who is IMHO a conspiracy theory nutcase.


Alex Jones is also a libertarian, so it would make sense if Ron Paul was on it. I actually agree with a lot o what Alex Jones says: except of course the Illuminati taking over.
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GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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5/5/2011 4:05:02 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/5/2011 3:17:16 AM, darkkermit wrote:
At 5/3/2011 9:38:22 AM, RoyLatham wrote:
Here's a sample of Ron Paul's apparent embrace of conspiracy theory:

"The CFR (Council on Foreign Relations) and the Trilateral Commission exist….there is a move toward a North American union…" Paul said in response to a YouTube questioner that wondered if Paul really believes this stuff.
http://www.postonpolitics.com...

The North American Union is a very plausible theory. I can't say for certain if there is a move towards a north american union, but it's a more plausible theory then reptilians or 9/11 being an inside job.

Paul is a frequent guest on a talk show run by Alex Jones, who is IMHO a conspiracy theory nutcase.


Alex Jones is also a libertarian, so it would make sense if Ron Paul was on it. I actually agree with a lot o what Alex Jones says: except of course the Illuminati taking over.

To be fair, "Illuminati" is not a word that ever comes out of Alex Jones' mouth. He never talks about the "Illuminati" at all and is hesitant to even use that word when he has a guest who come to speak on the topic of the Illuminati.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Extremely-Far-Right
Posts: 248
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5/5/2011 7:12:17 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/2/2011 11:56:13 PM, FREEDO wrote:
Ron Paul will probably win the GOP nomination. It is, however, unlikely for him to win the general election.

Actually, its quite the other way around.
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,240
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5/5/2011 12:57:17 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/5/2011 7:12:17 AM, Extremely-Far-Right wrote:
At 5/2/2011 11:56:13 PM, FREEDO wrote:
Ron Paul will probably win the GOP nomination. It is, however, unlikely for him to win the general election.

Actually, its quite the other way around.

I agree.
kelly224
Posts: 952
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5/5/2011 1:43:38 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/2/2011 11:53:32 PM, jat93 wrote:
Who's the most likely candidate? Palin is probably not running and Huckabee is on the fence.

Someone serious please.
jat93
Posts: 1,440
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5/5/2011 3:10:15 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Tell me about it. And I think I'd rather Romney than Huckabee. Huckabee hates the fact that Conservatives/Republicans are ACTUALLY calling to focus on fiscal stuff and "compromise", as he put it, on the social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage. I think this guy wants to inject his personal Christian values into America more so than he wants to fix our economy.