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No one will defeat Obama in 2012

Hambone
Posts: 18
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5/24/2011 2:59:47 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Barack Obama is going to be a two-term president, without question. Unless some sort of confluence of disasters occurs that are directly attributable to him, he is going to sail through this election process for three reasons: 1.) A weak field of challengers 2.) Strengthening of weak platform issues and 3.) Personal likeability.

1.) Weak Challengers - While it sounds strange to say it with 18 months left to go before Super Tuesday, there are no viable challengers to Barack Obama at this point in the process. At this point in the 2008 Election, you had frontrunners on each side of the aisle, and each were races to the finish. Newt Gingrich's campaign got off to a terrible start, and he lost any sort of political capital he had, you know, in the 90's, where he belongs. The erstwhile field of nominees is fairly paltry: Mike Huckabee has taken his name out of the ring, as has Mitch Daniels, while Mitt Romney has to rally against a health care system tremendously similar to one he himself instituted in Massachusetts. The likely frontrunner right now, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has all of the appeal of embalming fluid (John Kerry anyone?).

2.) Strengthening His Platform - Barack Obama's weakest arguing point in the 2008 Election that he won was his weak stances and lack of experience with regard to national security. It's fairly safe to say that no one can really challenge him on that anymore, since he seemed to have shot that weakness/Osama bin Laden right in the face. His weakest point now will be the economy that many still blame George W. Bush for.

3.) Personal Likability - The Obama's still got it. His personal approval ratings, while hovering in the 50 percent range for most of his presidency, have been consistent. While those on the Right will still foment and lament his presidency, independents still seem to like him, and his wife Michelle, being in the White House.

Overall, his weakest point is now the aforementioned economy that he can try and stiffarm in debates as Bush-Era-problems. Many will not be so keen to give him a free pass, and in the event that another global recession or worse occurs in the next 18 months, or unemployment rates rise tremendously, or gas is $10/gallon, Obama's campaign would then likely be in trouble. However, most agree that, while gradual, the economy is on the up and up, and shouldn't falter during his first term.

Republicans had better hope for a miracle candidate to come out of the woodwork, or just start preparing for 2016.
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Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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5/24/2011 3:13:39 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Most likely, no one will defeat Obama, with the way things are going right now, but I wouldn't cement in an opinion just yet.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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5/24/2011 3:25:52 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Have you ever heard of this one candidate whose name is, I don't know uh, RON PAUL.

You seriously think Pawlenty will be the front runner?! Ron Paul is beating him in EVERY single poll by more than double!

Ron Paul is also beating EVERY single candidate except Romney in the polls.

How could you forget to mention the MAIN frontrunner are you serious?
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,212
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5/24/2011 3:26:39 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 3:13:39 PM, OreEle wrote:
Most likely, no one will defeat Obama, with the way things are going right now, but I wouldn't cement in an opinion just yet.

Can we defeat Obama?

Yes we can.
belle
Posts: 4,113
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5/24/2011 3:29:18 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
i can't believe people actually think ron paul has a chance o.o
evidently i only come to ddo to avoid doing homework...
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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5/24/2011 3:40:46 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 3:25:52 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Have you ever heard of this one candidate whose name is, I don't know uh, RON PAUL.

You seriously think Pawlenty will be the front runner?! Ron Paul is beating him in EVERY single poll by more than double!

Ron Paul is also beating EVERY single candidate except Romney in the polls.

How could you forget to mention the MAIN frontrunner are you serious?

The mainstream media will destroy Ron Paul if he gets too much support. The polls aren't an accurate depiction of who will win, since it is likely young people who use the internet and those most interested in the campaign, who are voting in the polls. This is something known as the selection bias. It it know way reflects Ron Paul's chances to win. He was also winning the straw man polls in the last election, but didn't win.

I hate to say it, but Barack Obama is likely to win the next election :-(. To think otherwise is just optimistic thinking.
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interrogator
Posts: 1,322
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5/24/2011 3:44:25 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I agree. Noone will defeat Obama. His record is fair and the other party does not
have a legitimate candidate or someone who can bring something of substance
to the table.
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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5/24/2011 3:46:13 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 3:29:18 PM, belle wrote:
i can't believe people actually think ron paul has a chance o.o

- Romney is Mormon and supports government mandate healthcare. Too moderate not Conservative enough for Republicans. A Mormon has historically never won and still won't.

- Gingrich cheated on a dying wife of cancer and broke up with her. He also supports government healthcare. Too moderate not Conservative enough for Republicans.

- Pawlenty, Santorum, Cain barely reach 4% in the polls. No chance.

Who does that leave you with?

A Libertarian who is preaching all the foreign policy and economic policy that everyone else is calling for. A Protestant. Has no baggage. He was voted by CNN poll to have better chance than ANYBODY in GOP to beat Obama. He draws support from the Democrats Liberals, both sides. Bill Maher, John Stewart, Steve Colbert, Sean Hannity, and Bill O'Reilly support him. Has the full backing of the Tea Party who nearly pushed Harry Reid out and Angle in. The same people who elected Rand Paul into the SENATE.

RON PAUL.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,212
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5/24/2011 3:46:50 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 3:40:46 PM, darkkermit wrote:
It it know way reflects Ron Paul's chances to win. He was also winning the straw man polls in the last election, but didn't win.

I hate to say it, but Barack Obama is likely to win the next election :-(. To think otherwise is just optimistic thinking.

STRAWMAN!
brian_eggleston
Posts: 3,347
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5/24/2011 3:48:55 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 2:59:47 PM, Hambone wrote:
Barack Obama is going to be a two-term president, without question. Unless some sort of confluence of disasters occurs that are directly attributable to him, he is going to sail through this election process for three reasons: 1.) A weak field of challengers 2.) Strengthening of weak platform issues and 3.) Personal likeability.

1.) Weak Challengers - While it sounds strange to say it with 18 months left to go before Super Tuesday, there are no viable challengers to Barack Obama at this point in the process. At this point in the 2008 Election, you had frontrunners on each side of the aisle, and each were races to the finish. Newt Gingrich's campaign got off to a terrible start, and he lost any sort of political capital he had, you know, in the 90's, where he belongs. The erstwhile field of nominees is fairly paltry: Mike Huckabee has taken his name out of the ring, as has Mitch Daniels, while Mitt Romney has to rally against a health care system tremendously similar to one he himself instituted in Massachusetts. The likely frontrunner right now, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty has all of the appeal of embalming fluid (John Kerry anyone?).

2.) Strengthening His Platform - Barack Obama's weakest arguing point in the 2008 Election that he won was his weak stances and lack of experience with regard to national security. It's fairly safe to say that no one can really challenge him on that anymore, since he seemed to have shot that weakness/Osama bin Laden right in the face. His weakest point now will be the economy that many still blame George W. Bush for.

3.) Personal Likability - The Obama's still got it. His personal approval ratings, while hovering in the 50 percent range for most of his presidency, have been consistent. While those on the Right will still foment and lament his presidency, independents still seem to like him, and his wife Michelle, being in the White House.

Overall, his weakest point is now the aforementioned economy that he can try and stiffarm in debates as Bush-Era-problems. Many will not be so keen to give him a free pass, and in the event that another global recession or worse occurs in the next 18 months, or unemployment rates rise tremendously, or gas is $10/gallon, Obama's campaign would then likely be in trouble. However, most agree that, while gradual, the economy is on the up and up, and shouldn't falter during his first term.

Republicans had better hope for a miracle candidate to come out of the woodwork, or just start preparing for 2016.

I hope you are right, but I fear you underestimate the influence of American TV and newspapers, which are increasingly controlled by tax-evading, pro-Republican media moguls such as Rupert Murdoch.
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darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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5/24/2011 3:52:14 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 3:46:13 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 5/24/2011 3:29:18 PM, belle wrote:
i can't believe people actually think ron paul has a chance o.o

- Romney is Mormon and supports government mandate healthcare. Too moderate not Conservative enough for Republicans. A Mormon has historically never won and still won't.

- Gingrich cheated on a dying wife of cancer and broke up with her. He also supports government healthcare. Too moderate not Conservative enough for Republicans.

- Pawlenty, Santorum, Cain barely reach 4% in the polls. No chance.

Who does that leave you with?

A Libertarian who is preaching all the foreign policy and economic policy that everyone else is calling for. A Protestant. Has no baggage. He was voted by CNN poll to have better chance than ANYBODY in GOP to beat Obama. He draws support from the Democrats Liberals, both sides. Bill Maher, John Stewart, Steve Colbert, Sean Hannity, and Bill O'Reilly support him. Has the full backing of the Tea Party who nearly pushed Harry Reid out and Angle in. The same people who elected Rand Paul into the SENATE.

RON PAUL.

Check how Ron Paul is doing on the gallup poll.
http://www.gallup.com...

Herman Cain is destroying everyone. I might buy intrade prediction stocks in him.
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PARADIGM_L0ST
Posts: 6,958
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5/24/2011 3:57:50 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 3:31:24 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
Actually I am looking forward to this Obama future. A little civil war makes life exciting.



That clip was beautiful! Whoopsie!!! I like the people laughing in the background the best while she struggles to refine her choice in words.
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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5/24/2011 4:01:58 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 3:52:14 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 5/24/2011 3:46:13 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 5/24/2011 3:29:18 PM, belle wrote:
i can't believe people actually think ron paul has a chance o.o

- Romney is Mormon and supports government mandate healthcare. Too moderate not Conservative enough for Republicans. A Mormon has historically never won and still won't.

- Gingrich cheated on a dying wife of cancer and broke up with her. He also supports government healthcare. Too moderate not Conservative enough for Republicans.

- Pawlenty, Santorum, Cain barely reach 4% in the polls. No chance.

Who does that leave you with?

A Libertarian who is preaching all the foreign policy and economic policy that everyone else is calling for. A Protestant. Has no baggage. He was voted by CNN poll to have better chance than ANYBODY in GOP to beat Obama. He draws support from the Democrats Liberals, both sides. Bill Maher, John Stewart, Steve Colbert, Sean Hannity, and Bill O'Reilly support him. Has the full backing of the Tea Party who nearly pushed Harry Reid out and Angle in. The same people who elected Rand Paul into the SENATE.

RON PAUL.

Check how Ron Paul is doing on the gallup poll.
http://www.gallup.com...

Herman Cain is destroying everyone. I might buy intrade prediction stocks in him.

HAHAHAHA!!

Are we reading the same poll??? LOL.

Ron Paul is slamming Herman Cain.

Recognizability

Ron Paul: 76 (Third place)
Herman Cain: 33 (real low rank)

Ballot Support

Ron Paul: 6 (Second place)
Herman Cain: 0 (Last place)

Positive intensity is the only thing Cain is winning, but what does that mean and how do they gauge that?
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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5/24/2011 4:10:56 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
@rob1billion

You'd pick Obama over Paul???

I'd pick Paul, Herman Cain, or Gary Johnson over Obama any day. You can't be serious. I thought you went Anarcho-Left? Obama supports Patriot Act. Definitely not Anarcho anything. It's global fascist dictatorship. Why do you support that?
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Greyparrot
Posts: 14,212
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5/24/2011 4:12:15 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 4:10:56 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
@rob1billion

You'd pick Obama over Paul???

I'd pick Paul, Herman Cain, or Gary Johnson over Obama any day. You can't be serious. I thought you went Anarcho-Left? Obama supports Patriot Act. Definitely not Anarcho anything. It's global fascist dictatorship. Why do you support that?

Because he believes in hope through fiat.
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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5/24/2011 4:22:20 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 4:01:58 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 5/24/2011 3:52:14 PM, darkkermit wrote:
At 5/24/2011 3:46:13 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 5/24/2011 3:29:18 PM, belle wrote:
i can't believe people actually think ron paul has a chance o.o

- Romney is Mormon and supports government mandate healthcare. Too moderate not Conservative enough for Republicans. A Mormon has historically never won and still won't.

- Gingrich cheated on a dying wife of cancer and broke up with her. He also supports government healthcare. Too moderate not Conservative enough for Republicans.

- Pawlenty, Santorum, Cain barely reach 4% in the polls. No chance.

Who does that leave you with?

A Libertarian who is preaching all the foreign policy and economic policy that everyone else is calling for. A Protestant. Has no baggage. He was voted by CNN poll to have better chance than ANYBODY in GOP to beat Obama. He draws support from the Democrats Liberals, both sides. Bill Maher, John Stewart, Steve Colbert, Sean Hannity, and Bill O'Reilly support him. Has the full backing of the Tea Party who nearly pushed Harry Reid out and Angle in. The same people who elected Rand Paul into the SENATE.

RON PAUL.

Check how Ron Paul is doing on the gallup poll.
http://www.gallup.com...

Herman Cain is destroying everyone. I might buy intrade prediction stocks in him.

HAHAHAHA!!

Are we reading the same poll??? LOL.

Ron Paul is slamming Herman Cain.

Recognizability

Ron Paul: 76 (Third place)
Herman Cain: 33 (real low rank)

Ballot Support

Ron Paul: 6 (Second place)
Herman Cain: 0 (Last place)

Positive intensity is the only thing Cain is winning, but what does that mean and how do they gauge that?

Herman Cain can easily gain mass media support quickly. The media is much more likely to favor him than Ron Paul. He's a dark horse. He has the black advantage. Tea parties are constantly falsely referred to as racist. Herman Cain can change all that.

Look at Ron Paul's unfavorable ranking. 24%. That's quite significant.
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PARADIGM_L0ST
Posts: 6,958
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5/24/2011 4:25:27 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Herman Cain can easily gain mass media support quickly. The media is much more likely to favor him than Ron Paul. He's a dark horse. He has the black advantage. Tea parties are constantly falsely referred to as racist. Herman Cain can change all that.

Look at Ron Paul's unfavorable ranking. 24%. That's quite significant.:

But would you, personally, choose Cain over Paul?
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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5/24/2011 4:29:20 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 4:17:27 PM, Rob1_Billion wrote:
Geo I'm amused that you are responding to me and I haven't even commented yet. I would support Paul over Obama.

LMAO! Yeah, I somehow saw rob1billion when reading Brians post, lol.

*Edit: Previous post directed @ Brian Eggleston. Though, I suppose he's just liberal, not libertarian leaning idk though.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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5/24/2011 4:29:40 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 4:25:27 PM, PARADIGM_L0ST wrote:
Herman Cain can easily gain mass media support quickly. The media is much more likely to favor him than Ron Paul. He's a dark horse. He has the black advantage. Tea parties are constantly falsely referred to as racist. Herman Cain can change all that.

Look at Ron Paul's unfavorable ranking. 24%. That's quite significant.:

But would you, personally, choose Cain over Paul?

Of course I would choose Ron Paul. That doesn't mean I think he'll win.

I also think he has a much better chance of beating Barack Obama then Ron Paul. Ron Paul supporters would also likely vote for Cain. He might not be the ideal candidate, but he's a better choice then Barack Obama.
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GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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5/24/2011 4:33:28 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
@darkkermit

False. Ron Paul's unfavorable is 21, Gingrich is 24.

Ron Paul's favorable rank is 50 which makes him second place for most favorable.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Charles0103
Posts: 523
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5/24/2011 4:33:58 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
You have to remember that Bush Sr. lost reelection, too. He had like a 75% approval rating and very low unemployment rate. Obama has like a 50% approval rating and a 9.5% unemployment rate. However, Bush Sr. had to go up against Bill Clinton who is very beast. Bill Clinton pwned because he's like Chuck Norris in politican form. Obama only has to compete with a bunch of right wing loonies.

All in all, Obama should be a 2 termer unless Dwight Eisenhower, Teddy Roosevelt, Abe Lincoln, or some other Republican candidate who owns a brain comes back from the dead and decides to run.

But still, Teddy Roosevelt and Abraham Lincoln were progressives, and Ike was a moderate, so I doubt any of them could get through the teabagger controlled primaries. :D
"And so I tell you, keep on asking, and you will receive what you ask for. Keep on seeking, and you will find. Keep on knocking, and the door will be opened to you. For everyone who asks, receives. Everyone who seeks, finds. And to everyone who knocks, the door will be opened." Jesus in Luke 11:9-10
darkkermit
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5/24/2011 4:34:23 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I'm also going to be horribly incorrect and state that Barack Obama would more likely capture the black vote then any other president. However, if Barack Obama is up against another black man, then the black vote would either be split or lean towards Herman Cain (since he's 100% black instead of half black :p).
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darkkermit
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5/24/2011 4:43:47 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 4:33:28 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
@darkkermit

False. Ron Paul's unfavorable is 21, Gingrich is 24.

Ron Paul's favorable rank is 50 which makes him second place for most favorable.

Wow, when did I ever say I thought Grignrich had a chance? And in no way is Ron Paul ranked second for most favorable. Just look at the numbers. Positive intenstiy score is (percent in favor - percent not in favor). Based on Positive intensity, Ron Paul is the third worst, and 8 candidates are ahead. I already told you why the polls are flawed.

Gallup is a much more reputable organization. Also, look at intrade. This site uses prediction markets to forecast the future. He is ranked at 2% chance, even though he is ranked 30% chance of winning the straw poll:
http://www.intrade.com...
http://www.intrade.com...
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GeoLaureate8
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5/24/2011 4:44:52 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 5/24/2011 4:34:23 PM, darkkermit wrote:
I'm also going to be horribly incorrect and state that Barack Obama would more likely capture the black vote then any other president. However, if Barack Obama is up against another black man, then the black vote would either be split or lean towards Herman Cain (since he's 100% black instead of half black :p).

Ron Paul has a lot of support from blacks and minorities. He may have one of the biggest black bases in the GOP. I don't see why any black would support Cain over Paul. Why?

Herman Cain: Supports enslaving millions of blacks and minorities by supporting the Drug War and not speaking out against it.

Ron Paul: Will abolish the racist Drug War that targets and enslaves mostly minorities. All the minorities should rejoice at not being incriminated for peaceful activity and the husbands can come home from prison and be with their wives.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat