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Understanding the polls

RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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9/1/2011 4:59:42 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Yes, it's too early to obsess over the latest political polls. McCain and Clinton were non-entities in the polls this early in their campaigns, and they came back to win their nominations. Nonetheless, there is something to be learned from how well individual Republicans are matching up against President Obama.

Today's poll http://www.realclearpolitics.com... shows Perry ahead of Obama 44 to 41, Obama ahead of Romney 43 to 39, and Obama ahead of Bachmann 46 to 38. That makes the undecideds 15%, 18%, and 16%, respectively.

Dick Morris, once Clinton's pollster and now a Republican, says that in elections for the past 50 years, undecideds have consistently broken 85% against the incumbent. That was even true when the challenger lost by a landslide, as when Goldwater lost to Johnson. Even then the undecideds nearly all went against the incumbent.

That means if the election were held today the likely outcomes would be: Perry wins 57-43, Romney wins 54-46, and Bachmann wins 52-48. It could all be different a week from now, let alone a year from now. What it proves is that the often repeated "No actual Republican can beat Obama." is wrong. Obama has dug himself a deep hole.
inferno
Posts: 10,565
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9/1/2011 5:03:11 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Once the Liberal Assasins put a warrant out on Perry and Romney, none of this will matter. Obama was already been assigned to stay in office for another 4 years.
This is by the Illuminati. You are wasting your time.
PARADIGM_L0ST
Posts: 6,958
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9/1/2011 5:06:46 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 5:03:11 PM, inferno wrote:
Once the Liberal Assasins put a warrant out on Perry and Romney, none of this will matter. Obama was already been assigned to stay in office for another 4 years.
This is by the Illuminati. You are wasting your time.:

Way to go full retard... Never go full retard.
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
PARADIGM_L0ST
Posts: 6,958
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9/1/2011 5:34:56 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 5:32:34 PM, Joseph_Mengele wrote:
I don't understand...where is David Duke's name?:

Hopefully on a headstone, in an obituary, or both! :)
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
Joseph_Mengele
Posts: 388
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9/1/2011 5:39:14 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 5:34:56 PM, PARADIGM_L0ST wrote:
At 9/1/2011 5:32:34 PM, Joseph_Mengele wrote:
I don't understand...where is David Duke's name?:

Hopefully on a headstone, in an obituary, or both! :)

I take it you have never met him in real life or ever considered the policies that he advocates.

I don't blame you though, political correctness is the reason why we don't here David Duke's name anymore.

Hmmm...see anyone else in this predicament who is currently trying to get the Republican nomination? Cough* Ron Paul *Cough
Cerebral_Narcissist
Posts: 10,806
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9/1/2011 5:41:36 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 5:39:14 PM, Joseph_Mengele wrote:
At 9/1/2011 5:34:56 PM, PARADIGM_L0ST wrote:
At 9/1/2011 5:32:34 PM, Joseph_Mengele wrote:
I don't understand...where is David Duke's name?:

Hopefully on a headstone, in an obituary, or both! :)

I take it you have never met him in real life or ever considered the policies that he advocates.

I don't blame you though, political correctness is the reason why we don't here David Duke's name anymore.

Hmmm...see anyone else in this predicament who is currently trying to get the Republican nomination? Cough* Ron Paul *Cough

Though I am not american I still like to believe I'd never vote for a Grand Wizard of the KKK. Now an Imperial Wizard... that's different, but then I am ever the snob!
I am voting for Innomen because of his intelligence, common sense, humility and the fact that Juggle appears to listen to him. Any other Presidential style would have a large sub-section of the site up in arms. If I was President I would destroy the site though elitism, others would let it run riot. Innomen represents a middle way that works, neither draconian nor anarchic and that is the only way things can work. Plus he does it all without ego trips.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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9/1/2011 6:01:26 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 4:59:42 PM, RoyLatham wrote:
Yes, it's too early to obsess over the latest political polls. McCain and Clinton were non-entities in the polls this early in their campaigns, and they came back to win their nominations. Nonetheless, there is something to be learned from how well individual Republicans are matching up against President Obama.

Today's poll http://www.realclearpolitics.com... shows Perry ahead of Obama 44 to 41, Obama ahead of Romney 43 to 39, and Obama ahead of Bachmann 46 to 38. That makes the undecideds 15%, 18%, and 16%, respectively.

Dick Morris, once Clinton's pollster and now a Republican, says that in elections for the past 50 years, undecideds have consistently broken 85% against the incumbent. That was even true when the challenger lost by a landslide, as when Goldwater lost to Johnson. Even then the undecideds nearly all went against the incumbent.

That means if the election were held today the likely outcomes would be: Perry wins 57-43, Romney wins 54-46, and Bachmann wins 52-48. It could all be different a week from now, let alone a year from now. What it proves is that the often repeated "No actual Republican can beat Obama." is wrong. Obama has dug himself a deep hole.

I'll have to mark this thread and bring it back after the election.

1) Perry is popular because he is new. Every time a new person enters the field (be they running or not) they get a major boost until people start to figure them out (see Bachman, see Trump, etc).
2) Obama is not in "campaign" mode yet, so the numbers are going to be different than when he does start campaigning.

But either way, this thread is marked, as with several others (mostly regarding Ron Paul).
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
PARADIGM_L0ST
Posts: 6,958
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9/1/2011 6:05:44 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
I take it you have never met him in real life or ever considered the policies that he advocates.

I don't blame you though, political correctness is the reason why we don't here David Duke's name anymore.:

Yeah, it's about political correctness and not because, you know, he's a psycopath.
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
PARADIGM_L0ST
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9/1/2011 6:07:18 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Though I am not american I still like to believe I'd never vote for a Grand Wizard of the KKK. Now an Imperial Wizard... that's different, but then I am ever the snob!:

Are you people taking notes? THIS ^ is how you troll the troll! Well done, good sir, well done.
"Have you ever considered suicide? If not, please do." -- Mouthwash (to Inferno)
Rockylightning
Posts: 2,862
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9/1/2011 6:43:33 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Trying to get this thread back on track. Roy, have you ever heard of the Sherman effect? I heard lots of people talking about it in election 2008 but now nobody knows what it means (or maybe I got the name wrong?). It was where people would report to polls they would vote for candidate A and then quickly change their decision at the booth to candidate B. Usually occurring when the election is tense.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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9/1/2011 6:52:18 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 6:43:33 PM, Rockylightning wrote:
Trying to get this thread back on track. Roy, have you ever heard of the Sherman effect? I heard lots of people talking about it in election 2008 but now nobody knows what it means (or maybe I got the name wrong?). It was where people would report to polls they would vote for candidate A and then quickly change their decision at the booth to candidate B. Usually occurring when the election is tense.

It was talked about race alot. Rush brought it up quite a bit back in 2008. For that election, it was that people told the pollster that they would vote Obama because they didn't want anyone to think that they were racist for not voting for him, then, in the darkness of the poll both, they would vote McCain.

Rush predicted that Obama was actually going to lose and the poll numbers showing him leading before the election were all false.

This was pretty much shown false, when the RCP average of polls predicted Obama winning by 7.6 points, and he ended up winning by 7.3 points. So if there was any "Sherman effect" it was completely minimal.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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9/1/2011 6:59:37 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 6:01:26 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
1) Perry is popular because he is new. Every time a new person enters the field (be they running or not) they get a major boost until people start to figure them out (see Bachman, see Trump, etc).

True, but irrelevant to my point. Democrats keep saying that the individual matchups in polls show no Republican can defeat him. All three could defeat him now. Bachman has to be the most embarrassing. She's very well "figured out."

2) Obama is not in "campaign" mode yet, so the numbers are going to be different than when he does start campaigning.

Obama has been in full campaign mode for some time. He's already held 36 big-ticket fund raisers. At this point, Bush had one. His speeches are now dominated by personal attacks on opponents; that's abandoning issues in favor of campaigning. Another sign of the campaign is that the liberal media is chorusing personal attacks on the Republican candidates.

But either way, this thread is marked, as with several others (mostly regarding Ron Paul).

What are you talking about? Are you saying you certain that 85% of the undecideds will not go against the incumbent, as in past elections? Why? If that's your claim, I'll mark the thread too.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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9/1/2011 7:06:08 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 6:52:18 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
This [Sherman effect] was pretty much shown false, when the RCP average of polls predicted Obama winning by 7.6 points, and he ended up winning by 7.3 points. So if there was any "Sherman effect" it was completely minimal.

That's my understanding too.

The Rasmussen Poll called the election almost perfectly.

I've heard claims that there is some effect on poll results depending upon demographics. The claim is that college kids tend to be given preferences that people think appeal to the young. I dunno.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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9/1/2011 7:10:09 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 6:59:37 PM, RoyLatham wrote:
At 9/1/2011 6:01:26 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
1) Perry is popular because he is new. Every time a new person enters the field (be they running or not) they get a major boost until people start to figure them out (see Bachman, see Trump, etc).

True, but irrelevant to my point. Democrats keep saying that the individual matchups in polls show no Republican can defeat him. All three could defeat him now. Bachman has to be the most embarrassing. She's very well "figured out."

2) Obama is not in "campaign" mode yet, so the numbers are going to be different than when he does start campaigning.

Obama has been in full campaign mode for some time. He's already held 36 big-ticket fund raisers. At this point, Bush had one. His speeches are now dominated by personal attacks on opponents; that's abandoning issues in favor of campaigning. Another sign of the campaign is that the liberal media is chorusing personal attacks on the Republican candidates.

But either way, this thread is marked, as with several others (mostly regarding Ron Paul).

What are you talking about? Are you saying you certain that 85% of the undecideds will not go against the incumbent, as in past elections? Why? If that's your claim, I'll mark the thread too.

Yes, because they haven't.

2004 (the last time we had an incumbent running).

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...

Bush was given a 48.9 - 47.4 (with 0.9% to Nader) lead over Kerry. This means that 2.8% undecided. If 85% of those go to Kerry (or 2.4) and 15% go to Bush (or .4), then Kerry should have won 49.3 - 49.8. Instead, he lost, by about the same margine predicted.

The actual numbers turned out as 50.0 - 48.5 (1.0 Nader). So of the 2.8% undecided, 1.1 (or 39.3%) went to Bush, 1.1 (or 39.3%) went to Kerry, and 0.1 (or 3.6%) went to Nader, with 17.9% going to someone else.

But between the two main candidates, the undecides were evenly split.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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9/1/2011 7:11:47 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
If anything, I'd believe that the main difference is not because of undicides going against the incumbents, but because pollsters are not completely objective and so take bad polls.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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9/1/2011 7:14:52 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
If history repeats itself, Barack Obama is the modern day FDR, and we know what happened then (although thank goodness for 2 term presidency).
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Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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9/1/2011 7:26:06 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 7:14:52 PM, darkkermit wrote:
If history repeats itself, Barack Obama is the modern day FDR, and we know what happened then (although thank goodness for 2 term presidency).

lol, Obama is nothing on FDR (regardless if you like FDR or not, Obama is barely FDR lite, and that I would doubt). Though it's likely that Obama will not have a major dust bowl to go through, since the farms are better regulated this time around.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Rockylightning
Posts: 2,862
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9/1/2011 7:44:18 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 7:26:06 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:14:52 PM, darkkermit wrote:
If history repeats itself, Barack Obama is the modern day FDR, and we know what happened then (although thank goodness for 2 term presidency).

lol, Obama is nothing on FDR (regardless if you like FDR or not, Obama is barely FDR lite, and that I would doubt). Though it's likely that Obama will not have a major dust bowl to go through, since the farms are better regulated this time around.

*Ahem* did you forget the great depression?
Rockylightning
Posts: 2,862
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9/1/2011 7:48:50 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 7:11:47 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
If anything, I'd believe that the main difference is not because of undicides going against the incumbents, but because pollsters are not completely objective and so take bad polls.

I find polls to be an unreliable source, especially when on the news.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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9/1/2011 7:49:27 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 7:44:18 PM, Rockylightning wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:26:06 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:14:52 PM, darkkermit wrote:
If history repeats itself, Barack Obama is the modern day FDR, and we know what happened then (although thank goodness for 2 term presidency).

lol, Obama is nothing on FDR (regardless if you like FDR or not, Obama is barely FDR lite, and that I would doubt). Though it's likely that Obama will not have a major dust bowl to go through, since the farms are better regulated this time around.

*Ahem* did you forget the great depression?

No, are you suggesting that Obama is going to ride the economic crisis as his pony to 2012? He's not going to get that unless he's got numbers to show, 1.9 million is progress, but not enough. I think he'll need at least 4.5 million come next November, probably 5 million.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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9/1/2011 7:53:01 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 7:50:59 PM, Rockylightning wrote:
Skip over this guy's commentary.

The stats at the 40 second mark or later?
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Rockylightning
Posts: 2,862
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9/1/2011 11:38:07 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 7:53:01 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:50:59 PM, Rockylightning wrote:
Skip over this guy's commentary.

The stats at the 40 second mark or later?

*50% own a microwave blah blah* I dont care what the turkish guy has to say.
Rockylightning
Posts: 2,862
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9/1/2011 11:39:01 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 7:49:27 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:44:18 PM, Rockylightning wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:26:06 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:14:52 PM, darkkermit wrote:
If history repeats itself, Barack Obama is the modern day FDR, and we know what happened then (although thank goodness for 2 term presidency).

lol, Obama is nothing on FDR (regardless if you like FDR or not, Obama is barely FDR lite, and that I would doubt). Though it's likely that Obama will not have a major dust bowl to go through, since the farms are better regulated this time around.

*Ahem* did you forget the great depression?

No, are you suggesting that Obama is going to ride the economic crisis as his pony to 2012? He's not going to get that unless he's got numbers to show, 1.9 million is progress, but not enough. I think he'll need at least 4.5 million come next November, probably 5 million.

I'm not saying that. I thought you were using the dustbowl as saying "Obama has less sh*t to deal with".
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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9/2/2011 12:49:16 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 9/1/2011 7:49:27 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:44:18 PM, Rockylightning wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:26:06 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 9/1/2011 7:14:52 PM, darkkermit wrote:
If history repeats itself, Barack Obama is the modern day FDR, and we know what happened then (although thank goodness for 2 term presidency).

lol, Obama is nothing on FDR (regardless if you like FDR or not, Obama is barely FDR lite, and that I would doubt). Though it's likely that Obama will not have a major dust bowl to go through, since the farms are better regulated this time around.

*Ahem* did you forget the great depression?

No, are you suggesting that Obama is going to ride the economic crisis as his pony to 2012? He's not going to get that unless he's got numbers to show, 1.9 million is progress, but not enough. I think he'll need at least 4.5 million come next November, probably 5 million.

Yep, he can ride it out. FDR also had shitty unemployment rates, but people still elected him:
http://www.sd104.s-cook.k12.il.us...
Open borders debate:
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