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Ron Paul Has Power to Force Republican Nomine

GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/8/2011 4:17:36 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Ron Paul has the power to force Republicans to make him the nominee.
How?

The threat of Ron Paul running as a third party candidate. If Ron Paul runs as a third party, he will take all his voters with him plus his new Republican supporters with him, and will take away mass voters from Republicans.

All Ron Paul has to do is send a mandate message to voters saying "The choice is between me and Obama. If you don't vote for me, no Republican candidate will win because I will take too many votes from the GOP to win and Obama will remain in office for 4 years. Take your pick."
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/8/2011 4:21:19 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 4:17:36 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul has the power to force Republicans to make him the nominee.
How?

The threat of Ron Paul running as a third party candidate. If Ron Paul runs as a third party, he will take all his voters with him plus his new Republican supporters with him, and will take away mass voters from Republicans.

All Ron Paul has to do is send a mandate message to voters saying "The choice is between me and Obama. If you don't vote for me, no Republican candidate will win because I will take too many votes from the GOP to win and Obama will remain in office for 4 years. Take your pick."

Most of his supporters will bite their lip and vote for whatever republican shows up. And there is no way that with only 8% support that he can really "force" anything.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/8/2011 4:25:09 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
@ OreEle

If Obama wins 50 - 42, you'll know where that 8% went.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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11/8/2011 4:27:12 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Firstly, I'm fairly confident that a significant majority of Americans will take Barack Obama over Ron Paul in a heartbeat.

Secondly, this plan is wrought with failure. This does not compel the Republicans to vote for Ron Paul, it would more likely compel the previous Ron Paul supporters to vote for the GOP candidate, like you said, to avoid Obama. In fact this would take away competition for the GOP nominee and slide over some more votes for such characters as Romney and Cain. Ron Paul won't win, can't win, and shouldn't win.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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11/8/2011 4:27:32 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 4:21:19 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/8/2011 4:17:36 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul has the power to force Republicans to make him the nominee.
How?

The threat of Ron Paul running as a third party candidate. If Ron Paul runs as a third party, he will take all his voters with him plus his new Republican supporters with him, and will take away mass voters from Republicans.

All Ron Paul has to do is send a mandate message to voters saying "The choice is between me and Obama. If you don't vote for me, no Republican candidate will win because I will take too many votes from the GOP to win and Obama will remain in office for 4 years. Take your pick."

Most of his supporters will bite their lip and vote for whatever republican shows up. And there is no way that with only 8% support that he can really "force" anything.

Actually Geo brings up a good point. He could guaranty an Obama victory, but it would be a shi++y thing to do, and it would really hurt his overall standing in the party, but he could do it. Mitt would never bend to that though, and the republican elites wouldn't allow Ron Paul represent the party, they have too much self interest at stake.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/8/2011 4:33:13 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 4:25:09 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
@ OreEle

If Obama wins 50 - 42, you'll know where that 8% went.

You're assuming that all 8% of his support would follow him off the cliff like that. The vast majority (as they have always done in every election) will bite their lip and vote GOP. I'd bet at most, he could only get 2% to do so (and remember, that is 2% of "republicans" not 2% of all americans). If he ran 3rd party, I'd bet he'd get maybe 2 - 3% of the general vote.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
wjmelements
Posts: 8,206
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11/8/2011 4:41:15 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
Ron Paul isn't likely to get any support by making threats to ruin the anti-Obama crusade.
in the blink of an eye you finally see the light
innomen
Posts: 10,052
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11/8/2011 4:44:05 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 4:33:13 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/8/2011 4:25:09 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
@ OreEle

If Obama wins 50 - 42, you'll know where that 8% went.

You're assuming that all 8% of his support would follow him off the cliff like that. The vast majority (as they have always done in every election) will bite their lip and vote GOP. I'd bet at most, he could only get 2% to do so (and remember, that is 2% of "republicans" not 2% of all americans). If he ran 3rd party, I'd bet he'd get maybe 2 - 3% of the general vote.

It's likely to be a far closer race than an 8% delta. What were the numbers when Ross Perot ran?
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/8/2011 4:47:38 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
About 80% of Ron Paul supporters said that they will vote for Ron Paul and will not vote for the Republican nominee if RP loses.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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11/8/2011 4:50:18 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 4:47:38 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
About 80% of Ron Paul supporters said that they will vote for Ron Paul and will not vote for the Republican nominee if RP loses.

source?
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/8/2011 5:09:18 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 4:44:05 PM, innomen wrote:
At 11/8/2011 4:33:13 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/8/2011 4:25:09 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
@ OreEle

If Obama wins 50 - 42, you'll know where that 8% went.

You're assuming that all 8% of his support would follow him off the cliff like that. The vast majority (as they have always done in every election) will bite their lip and vote GOP. I'd bet at most, he could only get 2% to do so (and remember, that is 2% of "republicans" not 2% of all americans). If he ran 3rd party, I'd bet he'd get maybe 2 - 3% of the general vote.

It's likely to be a far closer race than an 8% delta. What were the numbers when Ross Perot ran?

Ross Perot supporters actually thought he had a chance (and with good reasoning). Just months before the election, he was polling at 39% in a 3-way match up (8 points on Bush and 14 points on Clinton).

In the end, his 39% support fell to 19% (and that was of the entire population, not just one party). Paul has 8% of republicans, about 5% of general population, and so the same ratio (about 50% sticking with him to the end) would be at 2.5% (like I said, 2 - 3%). Of course, Perot supporters had the additional mental support that Perot could possibly win. Ron Paul supporters would be 100% going for spoilers, rather than winning, so it is likely that he'll hold even less.

http://www.nytimes.com...
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
logicrules
Posts: 1,721
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11/8/2011 5:53:16 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 4:17:36 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul has the power to force Republicans to make him the nominee.
How?

The threat of Ron Paul running as a third party candidate. If Ron Paul runs as a third party, he will take all his voters with him plus his new Republican supporters with him, and will take away mass voters from Republicans.

All Ron Paul has to do is send a mandate message to voters saying "The choice is between me and Obama. If you don't vote for me, no Republican candidate will win because I will take too many votes from the GOP to win and Obama will remain in office for 4 years. Take your pick."

Been there, don't work. It will however ensure Obama another four years. Ross "Parot" did that a few years back. What we need are about 15 more parties, eliminate primaries and have about 20 candidates at the convention.
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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11/8/2011 7:05:10 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 6:33:01 PM, JuiceSqueeze wrote:
no third party candidate has ever one an election or primary.

No one ever claimed that. Third party candidates can steal votes from the major parties though.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
DetectableNinja
Posts: 6,043
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11/8/2011 7:54:40 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 6:33:01 PM, JuiceSqueeze wrote:
no third party candidate has ever one an election or primary.

Technically false. George Washington had no party, and Theodore Roosevelt was part of the Progressive Party.
Think'st thou heaven is such a glorious thing?
I tell thee, 'tis not half so fair as thou
Or any man that breathes on earth.

- Christopher Marlowe, Doctor Faustus
JuiceSqueeze
Posts: 109
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11/8/2011 8:16:44 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 7:54:40 PM, DetectableNinja wrote:
At 11/8/2011 6:33:01 PM, JuiceSqueeze wrote:
no third party candidate has ever one an election or primary.

Technically false. George Washington had no party, and Theodore Roosevelt was part of the Progressive Party.

in modern electoral college system.

ron paul would sabotage the republican nominee (romney most likely) if he were to run as a third party.

obama would LOVE paul to nader the election.
logicrules
Posts: 1,721
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11/12/2011 6:32:55 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 7:54:40 PM, DetectableNinja wrote:
At 11/8/2011 6:33:01 PM, JuiceSqueeze wrote:
no third party candidate has ever one an election or primary.

Technically false. George Washington had no party, and Theodore Roosevelt was part of the Progressive Party.

TR didnt win as a progressive he was president as a republican.
E.BurnumIII
Posts: 9
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11/12/2011 7:07:54 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
I will only vote for Ron Paul. Who cares if Obama beats Romney or Cain. Romney would be just as bad as Obama and Cain would be the worst of all.
"We must not allow the disastrous results of corporatism to be ascribed incorrectly to free market capitalism"
Wnope
Posts: 6,924
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11/12/2011 4:04:10 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/8/2011 4:17:36 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul has the power to force Republicans to make him the nominee.
How?

The threat of Ron Paul running as a third party candidate. If Ron Paul runs as a third party, he will take all his voters with him plus his new Republican supporters with him, and will take away mass voters from Republicans.

All Ron Paul has to do is send a mandate message to voters saying "The choice is between me and Obama. If you don't vote for me, no Republican candidate will win because I will take too many votes from the GOP to win and Obama will remain in office for 4 years. Take your pick."

Mild problem.

There is no button you can push which makes you the nominee. You have to beat the others in votes.

If Ron Paul is in second place and says "I will go to the third party if you don't choose me" then Mitt Romney and his supporters still aren't going to say "well, let's do what's best for America and give up now." They'll just let Ron Paul drop out and then blame him if Mitt loses, setting Mitt up for 2016.

If the voters have Mitt in first place, they aren't going to suddenly switch to Ron Paul because Ron Paul threatens to become a nuisance.

You are assuming individual Republicans want what is best for the Republican part as opposed to factions within it like pro-Mitt Romneys and neocons.

Republican hawks would rather commit hari kari than allow Ron Paul to win.
Jon1
Posts: 314
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11/13/2011 4:14:25 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/13/2011 4:00:04 PM, mongeese wrote:
In the recent 60-minute debate, Ron Paul got the least speaking time, at 90 seconds. Romney got six minutes. Bleh.

On the internet he gets all the coverage, though :)
RFH
Posts: 56
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11/14/2011 9:01:23 AM
Posted: 5 years ago
He should run because if he were to get 5% of the popular vote, which seems likely, his party would be eligible for federal funding in the next election.

Also, I think that many of his positions would attract liberal voters. It's quite possible that Paul would end up taking voters from both parties in equal numbers.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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11/14/2011 3:27:49 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/14/2011 9:01:23 AM, RFH wrote:
He should run because if he were to get 5% of the popular vote, which seems likely, his party would be eligible for federal funding in the next election.

Also, I think that many of his positions would attract liberal voters. It's quite possible that Paul would end up taking voters from both parties in equal numbers.

There's a bit of irony in that.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
RFH
Posts: 56
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11/14/2011 3:33:08 PM
Posted: 5 years ago
At 11/14/2011 3:27:49 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 11/14/2011 9:01:23 AM, RFH wrote:
He should run because if he were to get 5% of the popular vote, which seems likely, his party would be eligible for federal funding in the next election.

Also, I think that many of his positions would attract liberal voters. It's quite possible that Paul would end up taking voters from both parties in equal numbers.

There's a bit of irony in that.

That's an interesting point. I wonder if he would accept it.