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DDO's Top Political Pundant Contest

Marauder
Posts: 3,271
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12/28/2011 11:50:47 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
the media is full of talking heads who think there great at covering the news and commentating on but we have people here on DDO that are just as good.

I have an idea for a competition. any one that wants to participate can post in this thread there official prediction for the how the Iowa primary caucus will turn out. predicting 'its unpredictable' is not an option to participate in the contest you have to venture your best guess at who is going to win the GOP primary in Iowa.

the winner will be titled DDO's official champion political analyst of 2012.

the winner will be determine by who most accurately predicted what eventually happened. if multiple people predicted the same winner of Iowa, then we will look at among those correct predictions who also called the 2nd place winner in Iowa, and so on and so on.

If multiple people predicted the same results in the 2nd and 3rd and 4th and so on places, then we will determine our Champion Political Annalist (CPA) by other additional correct predictions such as if Rick Santorum withdrawals from the race and you called it, or final polls for what groups ended up voting for who like 'young college votes will go to Ron Paul while Gingrich will get Geriatric voters support' or even crazy stuff like 'Romney will tell his supporters to vote for Santorum to block Paul from getting the state'.

if its still unclear who should be called our CPA we vote on who we think did the best (not allowed to vote for self) or we could vote to ask the finalist to continue to give there predictions for the results of the later caucuses like New Hampshire, or even other stuff like if Rick Perry will went his court case to get on the Virgina ballet or not.

you get to vote if you yourself participated. predictions must be posted before Iowa caucus. your official prediction is allowed to change as many times as you fancy to accommodate events that occur between now and then like 'Iowa Senator just endorsed...' but it cant be changed on the day of the Iowa caucus.

Put your name in this list to show your in:

1) Marauder
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)

if more than 10 are interested just add a number for yourself. there are no limits to how many can compete for the title. I know this sort of could go in the game forum but since its not about strategy and is just us political commentating on the Primary Race I figured it fit better in this forum, although I will move the thread to there if you all think it a better idea to place in with the games.
One act of Rebellion created all the darkness and evil in the world; One life of Total Obedience created a path back to eternity and God.

A Scout is Obedient.
Marauder
Posts: 3,271
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12/28/2011 12:42:34 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Marauders Current Official prediction:

the Iowa Senator will not endorse anyone for his own political reasons. while he realizes his endorsement could for the moment sway the election, he does not have the political courage to face the possibility it might later sway his own election in the future. So I don't think that's going to happen

from polls at this stage I think its safe to say Ron Paul will get 1st place in Iowa.

Its worth considering in Virginia there were only two candidate with at least 10,000 people supporting them and those were Ron Paul and Mitt Romney. Its doubtful this is not the same case with other states like Iowa which is about as diverse an electorate as Virgina is. each election cycle Ron Pauls support has gotten bigger because more young voters are turning over 18. and while his campaign adds have been negative even Frank Luntz had to say they have been effective. The people who wish to turn to someone other than Romeny have at this point in the race were going to turn to Gingrich but its not hard for Rival canadites to point stuff in Gingriches past to make him look more leftist than Romney.

Gingrich was Pauls biggest Rival for older voters being the other old man in the race. laugh if you want to at that reasoning but that's how they vote, old people vote for other old people. Its dumb but so are they. with it being apparent that Gingrich's moment in the sun is going to be shorter than the past front runners like Herman Cain, Bachman and Perry, and Paul already having a larger than expected momentum there in Iowa its not surprising Ron Paul is leading the polls even though he is a libertarian which historically have not gained winning numbers support in the past. but theirs a new generation of people voting so that's different today.

The second place is going to be Mitt Romney, cause the voters who aren't going to Paul will look at him as there best bet to NOT get Gingrich who like I said looks worse than Romney to the core conservatives. He has gotten much better at giving the apologetic's to his own past that core conservatives do not like and hearing people like Rush Limbaugh say on the Radio we should just start supporting the moderates to run against Obama to get him out of office. He's support has been consistent all of the race so far, so consistent he probably will score second place in my view. You can listen to Conservative Talk shows and other conservative slanted news pundit's already preparing the talking point they will be giving for a Romney vs Obama race, talking about things like Romneys connection with the success of Staples.

at this stage I am not ready to call the exact nature of who gets 3rd but I will call who gets 3rd and 4th together (just not sure who will place ahead of who yet).
Newt Gingrich and Rick Sanatorum. While I have said Newt Gingrich is not going to win and that his support is going to fade, stubborn people will be stubborn. some voters out there have been so focused on Romney being liberal for so long they cant not start objectively looking at Gingrich as worse, and they fundamentally do not believe swiching there support at this stage is going to end in success. his left over support will probably be enough to get him 3rd or 4th place.

Rick Santorum is going to place in 4th if Gingrich is 3rd and 3rd if he 4th. a there are not so stubborn voters out there too and while the other core conservative tea party candidates have been scrutinized by now and interest left them Santorum has not been as scrutinized by the media and voters who are not for Romney or Paul will change to him.
The things the media have been scrutinizing about him at this point is his comments about homosexuality. but the people who have been bringing this up are from liberal media shows like MSNBC. they do not understand those who will be voting are not 'demarcates' but rather 'republicans'. the tea party voters in Iowa who could potentially support Rick Santorum are not bothered even a little if he says gay sex is as bad as animal sex or considering it acceptable contributing to a culture that had priest molest children. they might even be prone to like Santorum more because he has said such things on this social issue. If his 'gay sex is bad' comments is all the 'scrutiny' that's going to come up before the caucus he's not going to get shot down when his moment in the sun comes.

as for 5th place Micheal Bachman has done the best at trying to make a comeback and the reasons her fall from media spotlight are not as hysterical as Rick Perry's brain fart.

Rick Perry will get 6th and Jon Hunstman will get last place. Huntsman has set up camp in New Hampshire pretty much accepting he will not get Iowa so he's not wasting his time there.

so in short my prediction for placement is

1)Paul
2)Romney
3/4) Santorum/Gingrich
5) Bachman
6) Perry
7) Huntsman

once this caucus is over number 5 will definitely drop out and number 6 might too. Huntsman is going to wait until he loses in New Hampshire to drop out the other 4 will definitely still run for a while.
One act of Rebellion created all the darkness and evil in the world; One life of Total Obedience created a path back to eternity and God.

A Scout is Obedient.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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12/30/2011 5:48:29 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
1) Romney (23%)
2) Paul (20%)
3) Santorum (14%)
4) Perry (12%)
5) Gingrich (9%)

Over the last few days, Romney has continued to climb while Paul has started to drop (from 24 points, down to 21 points).

Romney will definately take New Hampshire. If he wins both of those and Gingrich loses both badly (which it is looking like he will), the Romney may even take S.C. and that will let him coast to the nomination.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
Marauder
Posts: 3,271
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12/31/2011 10:08:35 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 12/30/2011 5:48:29 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
1) Romney (23%)
2) Paul (20%)
3) Santorum (14%)
4) Perry (12%)
5) Gingrich (9%)

Over the last few days, Romney has continued to climb while Paul has started to drop (from 24 points, down to 21 points).

Romney will definately take New Hampshire. If he wins both of those and Gingrich loses both badly (which it is looking like he will), the Romney may even take S.C. and that will let him coast to the nomination.

bump

awsome! a contender. I was beginning to think everyone thought this was a lame idea.

I do admit recent polls are showing I'm almost definitely going to be wrong on bachman placing 5th or higher now. at this point she would have the most influence her way if she just tell all her supporters to vote for her opponent of choice. and I do really think between Santorum and Perry and Gingrich she would pick Santorum easy.

it would be awesome if that turned out to happen but she definitely wont drop out and back up another candidate until she loses in Iowa. If she loses there she's got no other baskets to bank on putting her eggs in, no states she can camp out in and hope to get. at best she can hope to split the core conservative vote so much in south carolina that she essentially guarantees Romney or Paul wins that state.
One act of Rebellion created all the darkness and evil in the world; One life of Total Obedience created a path back to eternity and God.

A Scout is Obedient.