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Iowa Results: Your Thoughts?

1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/4/2012 9:33:36 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Romney won by 8 votes! He can call it a victory, but is it really a victory for him? Santorum barely came in second, and Paul surely came in third. Michele Bachmann has now dropped out in the race due to her only beating Jon Hunstman in the caucus and he did not even campaign there he even said during the night "Who cares?" so those are his thoughts.

Elephant Watcher which I always look at has said:

"Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucus on Tuesday, beating out Rick Santorum by a ludicrously narrow margin of 8 votes. Aside from Jon Huntsman, Santorum was the only candidate who never finished first in an Iowa poll. His late rise came at the last possible moment to give him a win--almost. At the final tally, Romney won 30,015 votes to Santorum's 30,007. The following are the vote percentages for each candidate:

Iowa Caucus Results
Romney -- 24.6%
Santorum -- 24.5%
Paul -- 21%
Gingrich -- 13%
Perry -- 10%
Bachmann -- 5%
Huntsman -- 1%

As Elephant Watcher predicted on Monday, Santorum's late momentum gave him the edge needed to outperform his polling and (almost) take first. For the past few weeks, Santorum had the distinction of being one of only three candidates in the race whom Elephant Watcher gave a greater than zero percent chance of winning the nomination. On Tuesday, he demonstrated why. From the start of the race, Santorum was nowhere in the polls--even in Iowa--and was written off by nearly everyone. However, the destruction of one Tea Party candidate after another left Santorum the most natural candidate for the role.

The other winner of the night was the state of Iowa, which avoided disaster by not giving Ron Paul (or Michele Bachmann) a win. Back in June, we observed that the history of the Iowa Caucus shows the state is unfairly maligned as a breeding ground for "wildcard" candidates, and that the state's voters actually place a premium on traditional, electable candidates. Tonight's result, particularly with Romney getting first place, is another demonstration of that. Now perhaps the pundits will spare a few kind words about the sober-minded, moderate Iowa voters. However, the anti-Iowa sentiment will return in election cycles to come.

The big loser of the night is Newt Gingrich, who failed to outperform his declining poll numbers. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann should also be disappointed, as they failed to catch up to Gingrich. New Hampshire's primary will take place next week, and Romney's remaining rivals can spend that time attacking Romney if they like, but afterward they will all need to battle Santorum in South Carolina for the title of chief Anti-Romney."

Currently, Elephant Watcher has given these calculations to who has a chance to win the caucus:

1. Mitt Romney - 73%
2. Newt Gingrich - 16%
3. Rick Santorum - 11%
All the other candidates are tied at 0%.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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1/4/2012 9:56:10 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 9:33:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
Romney won by 8 votes! He can call it a victory, but is it really a victory for him? Santorum barely came in second, and Paul surely came in third. Michele Bachmann has now dropped out in the race due to her only beating Jon Hunstman in the caucus and he did not even campaign there he even said during the night "Who cares?" so those are his thoughts.

Elephant Watcher which I always look at has said:

"Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucus on Tuesday, beating out Rick Santorum by a ludicrously narrow margin of 8 votes. Aside from Jon Huntsman, Santorum was the only candidate who never finished first in an Iowa poll. His late rise came at the last possible moment to give him a win--almost. At the final tally, Romney won 30,015 votes to Santorum's 30,007. The following are the vote percentages for each candidate:

Iowa Caucus Results
Romney -- 24.6%
Santorum -- 24.5%
Paul -- 21%
Gingrich -- 13%
Perry -- 10%
Bachmann -- 5%
Huntsman -- 1%

As Elephant Watcher predicted on Monday, Santorum's late momentum gave him the edge needed to outperform his polling and (almost) take first. For the past few weeks, Santorum had the distinction of being one of only three candidates in the race whom Elephant Watcher gave a greater than zero percent chance of winning the nomination. On Tuesday, he demonstrated why. From the start of the race, Santorum was nowhere in the polls--even in Iowa--and was written off by nearly everyone. However, the destruction of one Tea Party candidate after another left Santorum the most natural candidate for the role.

The other winner of the night was the state of Iowa, which avoided disaster by not giving Ron Paul (or Michele Bachmann) a win. Back in June, we observed that the history of the Iowa Caucus shows the state is unfairly maligned as a breeding ground for "wildcard" candidates, and that the state's voters actually place a premium on traditional, electable candidates. Tonight's result, particularly with Romney getting first place, is another demonstration of that. Now perhaps the pundits will spare a few kind words about the sober-minded, moderate Iowa voters. However, the anti-Iowa sentiment will return in election cycles to come.

The big loser of the night is Newt Gingrich, who failed to outperform his declining poll numbers. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann should also be disappointed, as they failed to catch up to Gingrich. New Hampshire's primary will take place next week, and Romney's remaining rivals can spend that time attacking Romney if they like, but afterward they will all need to battle Santorum in South Carolina for the title of chief Anti-Romney."

Currently, Elephant Watcher has given these calculations to who has a chance to win the caucus:

1. Mitt Romney - 73%
2. Newt Gingrich - 16%
3. Rick Santorum - 11%
All the other candidates are tied at 0%.

Santorum came in stronger if you ask me, he covered more of a geographic area, and lost to Romney 30,015:30,007.

I don't want Santorum to win the primaries, although his policies are better than Obama's, they still suck hard.
Romney is way better.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
Royaltee
Posts: 114
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1/4/2012 10:05:03 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
The GOP nomination race is over. Romney wins. No one else has a chance.

Those arbitrary percentages given by ElephantWatcher (lolwut?) are ridiculous.
ConservativePolitico
Posts: 8,210
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1/4/2012 10:12:24 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 10:05:03 PM, Royaltee wrote:
The GOP nomination race is over. Romney wins. No one else has a chance.

Those arbitrary percentages given by ElephantWatcher (lolwut?) are ridiculous.

That's a little rash and ignorant to be saying.

The race isn't over until August plenty and I mean plenty of stuff can happen between now and then.
GeoLaureate8
Posts: 12,252
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1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
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ConservativePolitico
Posts: 8,210
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1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican which is probably why the "establishment" is "conspiring against him". He's a libertarian pure and simple.
Lordknukle
Posts: 12,788
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1/4/2012 10:27:45 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Geo, WHAT ANTI-RON PAUL CONSPIRACY?????
"Easy is the descent to Avernus, for the door to the Underworld lies upon both day and night. But to retrace your steps and return to the breezes above- that's the task, that's the toil."
mongeese
Posts: 5,387
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1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?

You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
gavin.ogden
Posts: 1,729
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1/4/2012 11:23:43 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?

You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

You simply have no idea What a real "conservative" is. Paul is the purest form of republican since before the great depression. Try studying some time, huh?
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/4/2012 11:42:58 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 11:23:43 PM, gavin.ogden wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?

You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

You simply have no idea What a real "conservative" is. Paul is the purest form of republican since before the great depression. Try studying some time, huh?

Since BEFORE the Great Depression, not a NOW conservative we are looking for a NOW conservative. Speaking of conservatives; the president before the Great Depression was a conservative and Republican, Herbert Hoover, who ultimately failed to fix the depression, so if you want to back to Hoover be my guest.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
OMGJustinBieber
Posts: 3,484
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1/5/2012 12:33:43 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
The Iowa caucus really just winnows the field; these extra candidates are gonna start dropping shortly. IMO, Romney's got the nomination tied up, intrade has him at around 80%
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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1/5/2012 12:58:54 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 11:23:43 PM, gavin.ogden wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?

You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

You simply have no idea What a real "conservative" is. Paul is the purest form of republican since before the great depression. Try studying some time, huh?

Actually traditional conservatism would be more authoritarian. Conservatives today combine aspects of classic liberalism (libertarianism), with traditional conservatism.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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1/5/2012 1:09:01 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 11:42:58 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:23:43 PM, gavin.ogden wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?

You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

You simply have no idea What a real "conservative" is. Paul is the purest form of republican since before the great depression. Try studying some time, huh?

Since BEFORE the Great Depression, not a NOW conservative we are looking for a NOW conservative. Speaking of conservatives; the president before the Great Depression was a conservative and Republican, Herbert Hoover, who ultimately failed to fix the depression, so if you want to back to Hoover be my guest.

Hoover was in office from March 4, 1929 to March 4, 1933.

The Great Depression lasted from August 1929 to March 1933. Hoover's successor, FDR saw 2 recessions after the great depression ended; The Recession of 1937 (May 1937 to June 1938), and The Recession of 1945 (February to October in 1945)
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
gavin.ogden
Posts: 1,729
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1/5/2012 1:19:39 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 11:42:58 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:23:43 PM, gavin.ogden wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?

You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

You simply have no idea What a real "conservative" is. Paul is the purest form of republican since before the great depression. Try studying some time, huh?

Since BEFORE the Great Depression, not a NOW conservative we are looking for a NOW conservative. Speaking of conservatives; the president before the Great Depression was a conservative and Republican, Herbert Hoover, who ultimately failed to fix the depression, so if you want to back to Hoover be my guest.

Maybe some are not meant to make it... What happens when the solution only provides a temporary fix? Is it the true solution? Let me ask you, with what is the dollar backed today? Nothing... That was a huge mistake which was a supposed solution at one time. Now, it is going to be our downfall. Go back to college.
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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1/5/2012 9:07:20 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 11:23:43 PM, gavin.ogden wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?

You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

You simply have no idea What a real "conservative" is. Paul is the purest form of republican since before the great depression. Try studying some time, huh?

conservative =/= republican
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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1/5/2012 11:52:48 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
The Iowa winner only goes on to get the nomination about half the time. Huckabee won Iowa last time. The main result was to eliminate Bachmann.

What struck me about the whole Iowa process was the incredibly bad press coverage. The universal idea of a good question was, "What will you do if you come in forth?" or "If you come third, is there a path to the nomination?" There was obsession with the horse race aspect, and little about policy. Did anybody learn about Romney's jobs plan or Gingrich's jobs plan? Does Ron Paul even have a jobs plan? The only time policy surfaced was in the debates.

Fox News was as bad as the other networks. Well, not as bad as MSNBC.

If policy is suppressed throughout the campaign, Obama is a sure winner. Obama is great at campaigning, incompetent at governing. If hollow generalities are all that's required, Obama will do well.
Reasoning
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1/5/2012 12:01:20 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

Sayeth the man with a progressive for an avatar.
"What we really ought to ask the liberal, before we even begin addressing his agenda, is this: In what kind of society would he be a conservative?" - Joseph Sobran
RoyLatham
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1/5/2012 12:26:20 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
William Buckley said, "Conservatism is the doctrine of evolutionary change." Ron Paul wants immediate radical change. That means he is not a conservative. He is a libertarian without doubt, and libertarianism admits to revolution. Libertarian can be conservatives, if they want to move incrementally in that direction.

Conservatives believe in an unchanging morality. That may be attributed to religion or, in the case of Deists and atheists, the nature of mankind. That moral premise does not dictate the position on every issue. Barry Goldwater was pro choice. William Buckley favored legalizing marijuana. Conservatives still argue about those issues.
brian_eggleston
Posts: 3,347
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1/5/2012 12:37:29 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
They say Rick Santorum isn't wealthy enough to win - he can't afford to spend as much on advertising campaigns, etc. as the other candidates can.

It would seem to me that the richest candidate does not equate to the best candidate, and that people should vote on the candidates' policies, not on how much money they've got.
Visit the burglars' bulletin board: http://www.break-in-news.com...
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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1/5/2012 12:58:56 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/5/2012 12:37:29 PM, brian_eggleston wrote:
They say Rick Santorum isn't wealthy enough to win - he can't afford to spend as much on advertising campaigns, etc. as the other candidates can.

It would seem to me that the richest candidate does not equate to the best candidate, and that people should vote on the candidates' policies, not on how much money they've got.

Who is they?
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/5/2012 3:47:42 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/5/2012 12:01:20 PM, Reasoning wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

Sayeth the man with a progressive for an avatar.

T.R. was a Republican, but he ran for the progressives in 1912 and lost. Generally, the difference is that T.R. had different Republican values than others. The Democrats were also different in the early 1900s. Many Republicans supported imperialism is a good example.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/5/2012 3:49:30 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/5/2012 1:09:01 AM, DanT wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:42:58 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:23:43 PM, gavin.ogden wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?

You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

You simply have no idea What a real "conservative" is. Paul is the purest form of republican since before the great depression. Try studying some time, huh?

Since BEFORE the Great Depression, not a NOW conservative we are looking for a NOW conservative. Speaking of conservatives; the president before the Great Depression was a conservative and Republican, Herbert Hoover, who ultimately failed to fix the depression, so if you want to back to Hoover be my guest.

Hoover was in office from March 4, 1929 to March 4, 1933.

The Great Depression lasted from August 1929 to March 1933. Hoover's successor, FDR saw 2 recessions after the great depression ended; The Recession of 1937 (May 1937 to June 1938), and The Recession of 1945 (February to October in 1945)

"The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression in the decade preceding World War II. The timing of the Great Depression varied across nations, but in most countries it started in about 1929 and lasted until the late 1930s or early 1940s."

http://en.wikipedia.org...
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/5/2012 3:57:14 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/5/2012 1:19:39 AM, gavin.ogden wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:42:58 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:23:43 PM, gavin.ogden wrote:
At 1/4/2012 11:19:36 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:41:14 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:27:00 PM, ConservativePolitico wrote:
At 1/4/2012 10:25:20 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul, still the clear front-runner.

The votes were a straw-poll, he tied for first in the delegate race despite the GOP establishment conspiring against him. If it weren't for the anti-Paul conspiracy his front-runner status would be more blatant.

Except for the fact that he's not a Republican.

Resolved: Ron Paul is a Republican.

Would you accept or decline that debate?

You are mistaken for a RINO, Republican in name only.

You simply have no idea What a real "conservative" is. Paul is the purest form of republican since before the great depression. Try studying some time, huh?

Since BEFORE the Great Depression, not a NOW conservative we are looking for a NOW conservative. Speaking of conservatives; the president before the Great Depression was a conservative and Republican, Herbert Hoover, who ultimately failed to fix the depression, so if you want to back to Hoover be my guest.

Maybe some are not meant to make it... What happens when the solution only provides a temporary fix? Is it the true solution? Let me ask you, with what is the dollar backed today? Nothing... That was a huge mistake which was a supposed solution at one time. Now, it is going to be our downfall. Go back to college.

He then starts to scare people by talking about the "when not if" the U.S. dollar stops being the worlds reserve currency. Again, it is true that there has been some talk about this, but the reality is no one talking about it has been able to put forward a way to do it that would not in and of itself perpetrate a massive world wide financial collapse. Sure other nations would like a piece of the pie that the US has in this regard, but getting them means killing their economies first so no one is seriously trying to do it, they just want to do it.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
1Historygenius
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1/7/2012 10:35:47 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/4/2012 10:05:03 PM, Royaltee wrote:
The GOP nomination race is over. Romney wins. No one else has a chance.

Those arbitrary percentages given by ElephantWatcher (lolwut?) are ridiculous.

Well those are recalculated over time and those are the numbers to predict the nomination, not the caucus sorry.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
1Historygenius
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1/7/2012 10:36:25 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Made a mistake, those are the percentages to win the nomination, not the caucus.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
mongeese
Posts: 5,387
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1/7/2012 10:45:28 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
If you truly believe that Elephant Watcher's predictions are reliable, then you should, on Intrade:
Sell shares of all candidates except Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum, until the price drops to zero
Buy shares of Gingrich until the price rises to $1.60.
Buy shares of Santorum until the price rises to $1.10.
Sell stocks of Romney until the price drops to $7.30.
http://www.intrade.com...

Until you put your money where your mouth is, I see no reason to take your predictions seriously.