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New Hampshire Primary Tomorrow

1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/9/2012 4:45:05 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Elephant Watcher says:

"Voters in New Hampshire will head to the polls on Tuesday for the New Hampshire Primary. The winner of the contest isn't in doubt: Mitt Romney has taken first place in every one of the dozens of New Hampshire polls conducted over the past year--most of the time by a sizable margin. The second-place candidate has alternated as various candidates went boom and bust, but Romney has consistently polled in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The question is who will take second, third, and fourth in the primary. The polls are unclear, with several candidates bunched together:

New Hampshire Primary
01/08 WMUR/UNH -- Romney 41, Paul 17, Huntsman 11, Santorum 11
01/08 PPP (D) -- Romney 35, Paul 18, Huntsman 16, Gingrich 12
01/07 Suffolk/7News -- Romney 35, Paul 20, Huntsman 11, Gingrich 9
01/07 ARG -- Romney 40, Huntsman 17, Paul 16, Santorum 12
01/05 NBC/Marist -- Romney 42, Paul 22, Santorum 13, Huntsman 9
01/05 Rasmussen -- Romney 42, Paul 18, Santorum 13, Huntsman 12
01/05 WMUR/UNH -- Romney 44, Paul 20, Santorum 8, Gingrich 8
01/04 Wash Times -- Romney 38, Paul 24, Santorum 11, Gingrich 9
01/04 Suffolk/7News -- Romney 41, Paul 18, Santorum 8, Gingrich 7

Ron Paul is in second in most polls. As in Iowa, he's polling in the upper 10s and low 20s. As expected, Rick Santorum got a bounce out of Iowa, but he has been unable to capitalize on that to get clear of Newt Gingrich, who is about tied with him in the polls. Jon Huntsman seems to be in about the same position as Santorum and Gingrich, though the PPP and ARG polls have him a few points ahead.

Huntsman is an interesting case. As a low-poller, strategic voters would ordinarily abandon him for their second choice. But many Huntsman supporters' second choice is Romney, who is guaranteed to win. Since Romney doesn't need the Huntsman votes, perhaps the Huntsman supporters will vote for their preferred candidate instead of shifting. This would serve to reward Huntsman for all the campaigning he has done in New Hampshire, and maybe to voice a bit of a protest against Romney's inevitable win.

Huntsman is the only candidate likely to drop out of the race in response to a poor performance. How well does he need to do to stay in the race? Though Elephant Watcher calculates Huntsman's chance of winning the nomination has been at zero percent for some time now, Huntsman may stay in for awhile if he exceeds expectations. A second-place finish would keep Huntsman in the race. A decent third would be a maybe. If Huntsman is in fourth when the ballots are counted, we should expect him to leave.

Santorum and Gingrich each desperately want to finish ahead of the other to gain a stronger position as the chief Anti-Romney in South Carolina. But instead, the polls have them right where Romney wants them: Far down and almost tied with each other. An ambiguous result means more splitting of Romney's opposition.

Finally, when Romney wins, the media will focus on the extent of his win. Finishing in the 40s will be treated as a good win. A few polls currently have Romney in the mid-30s, while the rest have him in the low 40s. If the numbers remain static, then adding in the undecided vote should give Romney a finish in the 40s. However, if New Hampshirites have last-minute thoughts, Romney ends up in the 30s. Particularly if second place is close, such a win will be treated as underwhelming. If Romney gets 50% or more, it will be treated as an overwhelming win and lead to more media proclaiming him the inevitable Republican nominee. Reaching the 50% mark would be difficult, even adding in the undecided vote, but is possible if someone like Huntsman sheds votes as they shift to second choice Romney (which hasn't happened so far)."

Currently Romney still has a 73% chance of winning the nomination, Gingrich 16%, and Santorum 11%. All other candidates still have a 0%.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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DanT
Posts: 5,693
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1/9/2012 4:50:34 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/9/2012 4:45:05 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
Elephant Watcher says:

"Voters in New Hampshire will head to the polls on Tuesday for the New Hampshire Primary. The winner of the contest isn't in doubt: Mitt Romney has taken first place in every one of the dozens of New Hampshire polls conducted over the past year--most of the time by a sizable margin. The second-place candidate has alternated as various candidates went boom and bust, but Romney has consistently polled in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The question is who will take second, third, and fourth in the primary. The polls are unclear, with several candidates bunched together:

New Hampshire Primary
01/08 WMUR/UNH -- Romney 41, Paul 17, Huntsman 11, Santorum 11
01/08 PPP (D) -- Romney 35, Paul 18, Huntsman 16, Gingrich 12
01/07 Suffolk/7News -- Romney 35, Paul 20, Huntsman 11, Gingrich 9
01/07 ARG -- Romney 40, Huntsman 17, Paul 16, Santorum 12
01/05 NBC/Marist -- Romney 42, Paul 22, Santorum 13, Huntsman 9
01/05 Rasmussen -- Romney 42, Paul 18, Santorum 13, Huntsman 12
01/05 WMUR/UNH -- Romney 44, Paul 20, Santorum 8, Gingrich 8
01/04 Wash Times -- Romney 38, Paul 24, Santorum 11, Gingrich 9
01/04 Suffolk/7News -- Romney 41, Paul 18, Santorum 8, Gingrich 7



Currently Romney still has a 73% chance of winning the nomination, Gingrich 16%, and Santorum 11%. All other candidates still have a 0%.

I'm voting either Romney or Paul tomorrow.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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1/9/2012 4:54:57 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Romney will certainly win tomorrow. Though, can someone clarify, did Romney or Santorum win Iowa?
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
mongeese
Posts: 5,387
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1/9/2012 5:13:41 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/9/2012 4:54:57 PM, 000ike wrote:
Romney will certainly win tomorrow. Though, can someone clarify, did Romney or Santorum win Iowa?

The margin is so low its effectively a tie. Romney won by 8 votes, but there may have been miscounts on each side, so we won't know until a week or so from now.
jat93
Posts: 1,440
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1/9/2012 7:15:20 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/9/2012 4:50:34 PM, DanT wrote:
At 1/9/2012 4:45:05 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
Elephant Watcher says:

"Voters in New Hampshire will head to the polls on Tuesday for the New Hampshire Primary. The winner of the contest isn't in doubt: Mitt Romney has taken first place in every one of the dozens of New Hampshire polls conducted over the past year--most of the time by a sizable margin. The second-place candidate has alternated as various candidates went boom and bust, but Romney has consistently polled in the mid 30s to lower 40s. The question is who will take second, third, and fourth in the primary. The polls are unclear, with several candidates bunched together:

New Hampshire Primary
01/08 WMUR/UNH -- Romney 41, Paul 17, Huntsman 11, Santorum 11
01/08 PPP (D) -- Romney 35, Paul 18, Huntsman 16, Gingrich 12
01/07 Suffolk/7News -- Romney 35, Paul 20, Huntsman 11, Gingrich 9
01/07 ARG -- Romney 40, Huntsman 17, Paul 16, Santorum 12
01/05 NBC/Marist -- Romney 42, Paul 22, Santorum 13, Huntsman 9
01/05 Rasmussen -- Romney 42, Paul 18, Santorum 13, Huntsman 12
01/05 WMUR/UNH -- Romney 44, Paul 20, Santorum 8, Gingrich 8
01/04 Wash Times -- Romney 38, Paul 24, Santorum 11, Gingrich 9
01/04 Suffolk/7News -- Romney 41, Paul 18, Santorum 8, Gingrich 7



Currently Romney still has a 73% chance of winning the nomination, Gingrich 16%, and Santorum 11%. All other candidates still have a 0%.

I'm voting either Romney or Paul tomorrow.

You're a libertarian. Why would you not vote for Ron Paul? And even if you wouldn't vote for Paul, why would you ever vote for Romney?
mongeese
Posts: 5,387
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1/9/2012 7:23:06 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/9/2012 4:50:34 PM, DanT wrote:

I'm voting either Romney or Paul tomorrow.

Go with Paul. He's more honest and consistent, and can't be bought.
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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1/9/2012 7:25:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/9/2012 7:23:06 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/9/2012 4:50:34 PM, DanT wrote:

I'm voting either Romney or Paul tomorrow.

Go with Paul. He's more honest and consistent, and can't be bought.

I agree, but Huntsman is honest, consistent, AND sane. So, go with Huntsman as far as Republican primaries go.
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
PartamRuhem
Posts: 1,559
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1/9/2012 7:32:33 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/9/2012 7:25:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/9/2012 7:23:06 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/9/2012 4:50:34 PM, DanT wrote:

I'm voting either Romney or Paul tomorrow.

Go with Paul. He's more honest and consistent, and can't be bought.

I agree, but Huntsman is honest, consistent, AND sane. So, go with Huntsman as far as Republican primaries go.

You beret that which you have no clue about. Stop ranting about Ron Paul being unable to lead this country. It's annoying. You bring NOTHING to the forums that presents your thoughts with valid reasoning. You just rag on him, for NO reason.
000ike
Posts: 11,196
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1/9/2012 7:38:32 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/9/2012 7:32:33 PM, PartamRuhem wrote:
At 1/9/2012 7:25:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/9/2012 7:23:06 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/9/2012 4:50:34 PM, DanT wrote:

I'm voting either Romney or Paul tomorrow.

Go with Paul. He's more honest and consistent, and can't be bought.

I agree, but Huntsman is honest, consistent, AND sane. So, go with Huntsman as far as Republican primaries go.

You beret that which you have no clue about. Stop ranting about Ron Paul being unable to lead this country. It's annoying. You bring NOTHING to the forums that presents your thoughts with valid reasoning. You just rag on him, for NO reason.

Get the hell over it. Do you actually have some arguments in his defense or do you expect me to take your petulant whining seriously? First you told me to stfu now you're angry that I offer an opinion you don't agree with..
"A stupid despot may constrain his slaves with iron chains; but a true politician binds them even more strongly with the chain of their own ideas" - Michel Foucault
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/9/2012 8:01:10 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/9/2012 7:32:33 PM, PartamRuhem wrote:
At 1/9/2012 7:25:44 PM, 000ike wrote:
At 1/9/2012 7:23:06 PM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/9/2012 4:50:34 PM, DanT wrote:

I'm voting either Romney or Paul tomorrow.

Go with Paul. He's more honest and consistent, and can't be bought.

I agree, but Huntsman is honest, consistent, AND sane. So, go with Huntsman as far as Republican primaries go.

You beret that which you have no clue about. Stop ranting about Ron Paul being unable to lead this country. It's annoying. You bring NOTHING to the forums that presents your thoughts with valid reasoning. You just rag on him, for NO reason.

For the record, most of his legislation is unlikely to get passed until he compromises his bills because a substantial amount of Republicans disagree with him as well as Democrats.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/9/2012 8:06:39 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Speaking of Ron Paul; Elephant Watcher still ranks him at 0% to win the nomination and has never risen above that ever in the whole race.

Elephant Watcher has analyzed his two pros of getting the nomination.
1. Paul is a symbol of the libertarian movement. His followers are loyal and enthusiastic, and they have donated generously to him in the past.
2. Paul's view on foreign policy (either "non-interventionist" or "isolationist," depending upon whom you ask) enables him to appeal to a group not reached by the other candidates.

But for his two pros there are 4 cons:
1. Paul is viewed by many voters as, at worst, a joke or party-crasher, and at best, not a serious candidate. Even many Paul supporters believe his purpose is to influence the debate rather than win the nomination.
2. Though many Republicans are skeptical of America's role as "policeman of the world," Paul won many enemies during his 2008 campaign by suggesting that
3. American foreign policy was to blame for the September 11th attacks.
Paul is in his mid-70s. He would be the oldest man ever to win--or lose--a presidential election.
4. Paul's unusual speaking style generally does more to hinder, rather than help, his cause.

The then did an Analysis:
Paul's loyal following guarantees him a certain percentage of the vote. However, he has proven unable to appeal to anyone beyond this small group. Only an unforeseen catastrophe could bring him close to winning the nomination.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...