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Current Polls + Scenarios for S.C. Primary

1Historygenius
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1/13/2012 6:57:08 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
As South Carolina continues the current polls show the that the top 3 will be (as of now) Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul as Rick Santorum falls to fourth and a more conservative state. I sent a message to Elephant Watcher and they said that the reason Santorum fell is do to the proof of his massive big spending and earmarks as a senator, plus the fact that he was from the Bush era gives Obama to chance to paint him like Bush. Kind of like McCain when the Obama campaign said he was a "more of the same" candidate. Romney is now surely out-polling Santorum which has public support slowly going back to Newt Gingrich in South Carolina. Elephant Watcher also believes Gingrich is more conservative than Santorum in everything except moral issues, but usually that will give Santorum only the evangelical vote. Currently Gingrich has a 12% chance of winning according to EW and Santorum 9% with Romney holding the rest and all the other candidates still at 0%. Here are the polls:

01/13 PPP (D) -- Romney 29, Gingrich 24, Paul 15, Santorum 14
01/12 ARG -- Romney 29, Gingrich 25, Paul 20, Perry 9 (Yeah, Santorum did not get into the top four here)
01/12 Rasmussen -- Romney 28, Gingrich 21, Santorum 16, Paul 16
01/11 Insider Adv -- Romney 23, Gingrich 21, Santorum 14, Paul 13
01/09 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 26, Gingrich 21, Santorum 13, Paul 8

Here are the possible scenarios according to EW:

"In the wake of a first place win (or tie) in Iowa, Mitt Romney vaulted to the top of the polls in South Carolina. It was the first time South Carolina had been polled since December 19th, when Newt Gingrich was still falling from his mid-December highs in the polls. The South Carolina polls had shown big leads for Gingrich for about a month, beginning in late November. Prior to that, Herman Cain was the leader in most South Carolina polls, benefiting from Rick Perry's decline in September. Romney only enjoyed a lead in South Carolina during the summer months, after Mike Huckabee announced he was out of the race, and before Perry announced he was in.

Romney's early-January leads in South Carolina polls contribute to the impression that he is an unstoppable frontrunner. The Intrade market even had Romney as a big favorite to win the South Carolina Primary. But is this realistic? What might unfold in the coming days?

Let's consider the range of possibilities. Romney's preferred scenario, naturally, would be to win South Carolina. He would also like Gingrich and Rick Santorum to finish very close together, as they did in New Hampshire. Maintaining a split between his two main rivals would continue to be very useful in Florida. If Romney were to win South Carolina and Florida by anything approaching convincing margins, the competition would essentially be over.

The numbers are good for Romney. The earlier polls in this group even show Gingrich and Santorum running close together. And Romney has broken through his mythical 25% ceiling. (Just days ago, it was still popular for pundits to believe in the ceiling; see the Elephant Watcher post from two months ago debunking the myth of Romney's 25-point ceiling.)

All that aside, a reality check is in order. Of the early primary states, South Carolina is the most inhospitable territory for Romney. In 2008, Romney got 25% in Iowa, about 30% in New Hampshire, 30% in Florida...and just 15% in South Carolina, a fourth-place finish. Granted, Romney had devoted fewer resources in South Carolina. Granted also that in 2008, Romney had just lost in Iowa and New Hampshire, as opposed to winning those two states this time around. But in 2008, Romney got twice his South Carolina vote share in Florida, and that was after three losses.

What this means is that if Romney does win, it is likely to be close. Under the circumstances, that would be a big accomplishment. However, the alternative scenario South Carolina presents is also a likely one, and it would unfold something like this:

Romney's worst-case scenario is that by the middle of next week, new polling makes it clear that Gingrich and Santorum are no longer close in South Carolina. Instead, Gingrich--though he may still have trouble out-polling Romney--is definitely out-polling Santorum. In response, in the days just before voting begins, South Carolina's Anti-Romney voters shift from Rick Perry and Santorum over to Gingrich, whom they are now convinced is the most likely candidate to beat Romney in that state. (The two debates next week may facilitate this.) The Anti-Romney voting having coalesced, Gingrich beats Romney and declares himself "the comeback kid" (or Gingrich's preferred version, "the comeback grandparent"). Pundits give Gingrich credit, and say variations of "the voters don't want this thing to be over yet, they're not sold on Romney," etc. Santorum's numbers slip, and Gingrich goes into Florida with a more convincing argument that he is the sole Anti-Romney. Indeed, it's arguably worse for Romney to come in second place than in third, because then Gingrich has even more clearly beaten Santorum.

Everything is up to the polling. For that scenario to occur, Gingrich must get a substantial lead over Santorum (and it looks like he might) in South Carolina polls over the next several days."
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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M.Torres
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1/13/2012 7:48:13 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
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: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
1Historygenius
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1/13/2012 7:52:16 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/13/2012 7:48:13 PM, M.Torres wrote:
COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 COLBERT 2012 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LOL could he really win however?
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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1Historygenius
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1/13/2012 8:16:38 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Another question is will Jon Hunstman have a chance now despite going over the expectations in New Hampshire.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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M.Torres
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1/13/2012 8:21:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/13/2012 8:16:38 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
Another question is will Jon Hunstman have a chance now despite going over the expectations in New Hampshire.

Nope. Colbert is beating Hunstman. GO COLBERT.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
GeoLaureate8
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1/14/2012 1:23:17 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Ron Paul has surged to 20% so I believe that makes him 2nd place. He was previously 4th.
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M.Torres
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1/14/2012 1:24:21 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/14/2012 1:23:17 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul has surged to 20% so I believe that makes him 2nd place. He was previously 4th.

Yes, but Colbert will win. Obviously.
: At 11/28/2011 1:28:24 PM, BlackVoid wrote:
: M. Torres said it, so it must be right.

I'm an Apatheistic Ignostic. ... problem? ;D

I believe in the heart of the cards. .:DDO Duelist:.
1Historygenius
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1/14/2012 2:55:20 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/14/2012 1:23:17 AM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Ron Paul has surged to 20% so I believe that makes him 2nd place. He was previously 4th.

Yes because anyone with a higher percentage than him an is actually in 2nd place will still probably not get it based on one poll.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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mongeese
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1/14/2012 11:50:13 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/13/2012 6:57:08 PM, 1Historygenius wrote:
As South Carolina continues the current polls show the that the top 3 will be (as of now) Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, and Ron Paul as Rick Santorum falls to fourth and a more conservative state.

And you then proceed to completely ignore Paul aside from a mandatory inclusion in polling statistics.
OberHerr
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1/14/2012 11:51:24 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Is Colbert actually running, like seriously, or is he just making a kind of joke?
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Lordknukle
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1/14/2012 11:51:49 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Historygenius, Mitt Romney did not kill jobs. Don't fall for the far-left propaganda. Mitt created 100+k net jobs.
"Easy is the descent to Avernus, for the door to the Underworld lies upon both day and night. But to retrace your steps and return to the breezes above- that's the task, that's the toil."
mongeese
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1/14/2012 11:57:00 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/14/2012 11:51:49 AM, Lordknukle wrote:
Historygenius, Mitt Romney did not kill jobs. Don't fall for the far-left propaganda. Mitt created 100+k net jobs.

He may have created jobs, but he also destroyed jobs. Now, we have a system of capitalism to manipulate greed to overall benefit society, and I guess Romney has accomplished that much (except there's some question of whether or not he used some insider deals on Wall Street to artificially boost some of his stocks and basically con numerous investors to turn a large profit), but last I checked, I don't think we want the guy who was motivated by a greed for profit to run the country. Romney is the ordinary businessman out for a profit; we want a president superior to that.
Lordknukle
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1/14/2012 12:00:20 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/14/2012 11:57:00 AM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/14/2012 11:51:49 AM, Lordknukle wrote:
Historygenius, Mitt Romney did not kill jobs. Don't fall for the far-left propaganda. Mitt created 100+k net jobs.

He may have created jobs, but he also destroyed jobs. Now, we have a system of capitalism to manipulate greed to overall benefit society, and I guess Romney has accomplished that much (except there's some question of whether or not he used some insider deals on Wall Street to artificially boost some of his stocks and basically con numerous investors to turn a large profit), but last I checked, I don't think we want the guy who was motivated by a greed for profit to run the country. Romney is the ordinary businessman out for a profit; we want a president superior to that.

Why? By being a businessman, Romney is accurate in economic issues and can lead the country out of the economic mess. He manipulated the capitalistic system in his favour and can manipulate it in the countries' favour. Also, I like how you just brushed off my job creating comment. Yes, he destroyed jobs. However, he create an overall net gain of 100k+jobs.
"Easy is the descent to Avernus, for the door to the Underworld lies upon both day and night. But to retrace your steps and return to the breezes above- that's the task, that's the toil."
mongeese
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1/14/2012 12:21:25 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/14/2012 12:00:20 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
At 1/14/2012 11:57:00 AM, mongeese wrote:
At 1/14/2012 11:51:49 AM, Lordknukle wrote:
Historygenius, Mitt Romney did not kill jobs. Don't fall for the far-left propaganda. Mitt created 100+k net jobs.

He may have created jobs, but he also destroyed jobs. Now, we have a system of capitalism to manipulate greed to overall benefit society, and I guess Romney has accomplished that much (except there's some question of whether or not he used some insider deals on Wall Street to artificially boost some of his stocks and basically con numerous investors to turn a large profit), but last I checked, I don't think we want the guy who was motivated by a greed for profit to run the country. Romney is the ordinary businessman out for a profit; we want a president superior to that.

Why? By being a businessman, Romney is accurate in economic issues and can lead the country out of the economic mess.

Microeconomics is separate from macroeconomics. He can do well managing a company with questionable ethics, but did he predict the collapse of the housing bubble?

He manipulated the capitalistic system in his favour and can manipulate it in the countries' favour.

He manipulated Wall Street by artificially boosting his stocks' value. Also, just because there's a chance that he knows how to manipulate the market in the country's favor doesn't mean that he will.

Also, I like how you just brushed off my job creating comment. Yes, he destroyed jobs. However, he create an overall net gain of 100k+jobs.

However, this resulted from both gains and losses. The fact is, he destroyed jobs. He gutted a washing machine factory after trying to improve its efficiency by rushing the workers, resulting in washing machines being put together missing some parts, then fired them. They were doing fine before Bain, and not fine at all afterwards.
1Historygenius
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1/14/2012 5:48:19 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I prefer the guy who actually got a balanced budget. Also speaking of businessmen, Hebert Hoover was a businessman and do you know what happened in his presidency? A businessman may seem good, but if he has created over a million jobs, which we are not sure Romney has done. Economics is another thing a president needs. An economics professor and a businessman are very different.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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