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Gingrich takes lead in the latest S.C. poll

1Historygenius
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1/18/2012 7:09:47 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
01/17 InsightLLC -- Gingrich 29, Romney 24, Santorum 16, Paul 14

It seems Romney has lost his lead.

The final pre-South Carolina primary debate will be tomorrow. and according to EW:

CNN will host the latest Republican primary debate tomorrow at 8:00pm Eastern. It will be the candidates' last chance to debate before voting takes place in South Carolina on Saturday. The dynamics of the debate will be similar to the debate on Monday: Mitt Romney is a big favorite to win the nomination and enjoys a comfortable lead in South Carolina polls, and it's up to the other candidates to take him down. The media narrative continues to suggest that if Romney wins in South Carolina, it's all over.

But there is a twist: Newt Gingrich got positive reviews for his debate performance on Monday, and the polls show Gingrich with a substantial lead over Rick Santorum in both South Carolina and Florida. This week, Gingrich said publicly that he would like Santorum and Rick Perry to drop out of the race and endorse him so that the Anti-Romney vote can unite. Santorum and Perry may now be more aware of the fact that it's not enough to take down Romney--they must stop Gingrich, as well. Though Perry knows his own situation is hopeless, Santorum may come to realize that the biggest threat to Santorum is Gingrich, not Romney. If Santorum trails Gingrich by too much, his candidacy will lose all support. But he can survive if he's close enough to Gingrich, even if they both lose to Romney.

It will therefore be important for Santorum to go on the attack against Gingrich. Santorum needs to prove that Gingrich is not the only candidate who can put in a strong debate performance. So far, Gingrich has done well in answering questions, but tends to be a bit weaker when confronted by other candidates in a back-and-forth exchange. Still, as we have seen in previous debates, just because a strategy is optimal doesn't mean a candidate will actually follow it. Santorum may very well continue to attack Romney.

As for Romney, he will once again need to play the role of the gracious frontrunner who is undisturbed by the attacks against him. On Monday, he skillfully parried the attacks against Bain Capital and his history of flip-flopping. He was more hesitant when asked about his tax returns. Since that got some attention, his rivals will surely focus on the tax return issue in tomorrow's debate. Chris Christie, who endorsed Romney and has campaigned for him, has said publicly that he thinks Romney should release the returns. Will Romney be able to effectively answer whether he'll release his tax returns? Romney is undoubtedly preparing for this line of questioning. If Romney has decided that he won't release them, it will be difficult for him to explain why not, without leading voters to worry that he has something to hide.

Finally, Romney must decide whether he should attack Gingrich. Romney has usually preferred to remain positive during the debates, in the belief that as frontrunner the status quo is beneficial. However, Romney may feel threatened enough by Gingrich that if Gingrich attacks him first, he will unleash a counterattack.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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GeoLaureate8
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1/18/2012 7:20:50 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Good. Gingrich is easier for Paul to defeat.
"We must raise the standard of the Old, free, decentralized, and strictly limited Republic."
-- Murray Rothbard

"The worst thing that can happen to a good cause is, not to be skillfully attacked, but to be ineptly defended."
-- Frederic Bastiat
1Historygenius
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1/18/2012 8:00:31 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/18/2012 7:20:50 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
Good. Gingrich is easier for Paul to defeat.

That has not been proven yet and unlike polls where Romney was in the lead, Paul no longer may have his average of third place and maybe decline to fourth place.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
mongeese
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1/18/2012 8:11:10 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Paul and Santorum are still neck-and-neck for third in SC regardless of Gingrich and Romney; in fact, Gingrich will attract more Santorum votes than Paul votes.
1Historygenius
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1/18/2012 10:46:21 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/18/2012 8:11:10 PM, mongeese wrote:
Paul and Santorum are still neck-and-neck for third in SC regardless of Gingrich and Romney; in fact, Gingrich will attract more Santorum votes than Paul votes.

You are right because they are both conservatives, generally Santorum will win the moral vote all together as I cannot see anyone else challenging his morals, generally someone who wants bold solutions and is a decent debater you go Gingrich. Paul will always have his libertarian base. If you go for someone "electable" you go for Romney and he will have the Mormon vote as well as people who like a businessman. Perry,well..., I guess just some handful of conservatives who like him for being an outsider of Washington.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...