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The South Carolina Primary Tomorrow

1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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1/20/2012 7:19:25 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Tomorrow is the important South Carolina primary and who do you think will win?
Here is what I think:

Early in the polls Romney looked like the winner and Intrade investors had even had him at a whopping 90% with all the other candidates way down, but I turned to the most reliable site there is on the Republican primary, Elephant Watcher and they were not convinced. They believed that attacks on Romney at the two debates might change things and they also called for the ends of the campaigns of Perry and Hunstman (they have always had Paul at 0% but they know he campaigns to the bitter end anyway). Just as EW had called for, Hunstman and Perry left the campaign (which shows how accurate it really is). As for Rick Santorum his "conservatism" has been shown now and people don't like his votes on major spending, raising the debt ceiling, and a certain amount does not like earmarks, but they like a bold candidate from the Reagan years like Gingrich. I predict that Elephant Watcher would drop Santorum to a small percentage or even 0% as one candidate has to ride the conservative wave it seems to be Gingrich. Elephant Watcher has even said that if Gingrich wins South Carolina with Romney in second and Santorum in third that would be even a bigger win that Santorum taking second as it shows the conservatives have strongly made up their minds.

As for Romney if he wins he may undoubtedly be the winner because he won such a conservative state. However if he loses Elephant has said:

"Romney will get bad press if he loses South Carolina, but it's easy to exaggerate the state's importance. South Carolina is one of Romney's worst states. In 2008, Romney got about twice the share of the vote in Florida as he did in South Carolina."

This is why if Romney gets second percent and it is close that is good because then the Romney camp can't complain about how conservative the state is if he won second place.

The ten latest polls are here:
01/19 Clemson -- Gingrich 32, Romney 26, Paul 11, Santorum 9
01/19 PPP (D) -- Gingrich 36, Romney 30, Santorum 16, Paul 15
01/19 WeAskAmerica -- Gingrich 32, Romney 28, Paul 13, Santorum 9
01/18 Reuters -- Romney 35, Gingrich 23, Santorum 15, Paul 13
01/18 ARG -- Gingrich 33, Romney 32, Paul 19, Santorum 9
01/18 Rasmussen -- Gingrich 33, Romney 31, Paul 15, Santorum 11
01/18 PPP (D) -- Gingrich 34, Romney 28, Paul 15, Santorum 14
01/18 Insider Adv -- Gingrich 32, Romney 29, Paul 15, Santorum 11
01/18 Tarrance (R) -- Romney 37, Gingrich 30, Paul 11, Santorum 10

Elephant Watcher still has Romney at 79% chance of winning, Gingrich 12%, and Santorum at 9%. Ron Paul has never risen above 0% in their calculations.

RCP has this on an average of polls:
Romney: 31.0%
Gingrich: 20.0%
Paul: 14.4%
Santorum: 14.2%

It looks like Gingrich will win this one unless something surprising happens on tomorrow like Gingrich committing suicide or a meteor smashing into the state. Elephant Watcher has reported that there will be no reliable polls between now and voting time so it is unknown how or if Gingrich's ex-wife interview will effect him. I think it will not because Gingrich owned the issue at yesterday's debate.

Elephant Watcher has analyzed a Gingrich win:

"Our best guess is that adding Gingrich's momentum, the possibility of further Santorum defection, and Gingrich's preexisting lead should be enough to hand him South Carolina. However, it ought to be somewhat close. It will be closer if the Gingrich scandal has any impact.

A win by Gingrich in South Carolina will put a quick halt to Romney's aura of inevitability. As we explained earlier this week, however, Florida is the real test. That's because it will be the first opportunity for a single Anti-Romney to fight against Romney. The narrative thus far has been that Romney has won due to the split in his rivals' vote. If the Anti-Romney vote coalesces behind Gingrich and Romney still wins, that proves Romney is the clear favorite."

As for Ron Paul and Rick Santorum they will have to fight for third. No one likes last place. Santorum was not even a flavor of the month, rather a flavor of a few weeks, and has been slowly declining and will have to eventually give up to Gingrich. Ron Paul stays until the end and as usual loses in the end.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

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medic0506
Posts: 13,450
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1/21/2012 5:18:16 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Just cast my vote for Santorum. I tried to vote for Newt, I really did, but just couldn't pull the trigger. I kept seeing an October Obama ad where Obama is claiming the moral highground over Gingrich. I want a true conservative in the race but that's not the situation I want to see.
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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1/22/2012 2:36:22 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/19/2012 11:20:32 AM, PARADIGM_L0ST wrote:
I already told a few people here about my confrontation with this group of Men in Philadelphia, PA. They were part of the.........Well, I dont wanna say it here. I have a cousin who is rich and he too told us about this organization and he is from the same city. This city is known for its secret societies and fraternal elites. Charleston, SC has them as well. They are part of the 5 points here in the US. This is why you see the Republican Party scrambling desperately to get votes from these lost sheep. They know if they can win SC, then they will have the GOP in their hands. This is how it goes, and I live here, so I know.

or

At 1/19/2012 11:20:32 AM, PARADIGM_L0ST wrote:
At 1/19/2012 11:35:26 AM, DanT wrote:
At 1/19/2012 11:20:32 AM, PARADIGM_L0ST wrote:
But anyway, these people do not care about human life. You are nothing but a brand to them, and money is their god. So you are gonna see more chaos than any other period in American and world history for that matter. They are stealing your rights in front of your eyes and violating the Constitution. Even President Obama is in the group. Yes, it is true.
Clinton lost SC
Clinton is a Democrat you moron. This rule does not apply to us.
Only the Republican Party goes by this.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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1/22/2012 2:41:14 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 1/22/2012 2:36:22 PM, DanT wrote:
At 1/19/2012 11:26:47 AM, inferno wrote:
I already told a few people here about my confrontation with this group of Men in Philadelphia, PA. They were part of the.........Well, I dont wanna say it here. I have a cousin who is rich and he too told us about this organization and he is from the same city. This city is known for its secret societies and fraternal elites. Charleston, SC has them as well. They are part of the 5 points here in the US. This is why you see the Republican Party scrambling desperately to get votes from these lost sheep. They know if they can win SC, then they will have the GOP in their hands. This is how it goes, and I live here, so I know.

or

At 1/19/2012 12:12:20 PM, inferno wrote:
At 1/19/2012 11:35:26 AM, DanT wrote:
At 1/19/2012 11:26:47 AM, inferno wrote:
But anyway, these people do not care about human life. You are nothing but a brand to them, and money is their god. So you are gonna see more chaos than any other period in American and world history for that matter. They are stealing your rights in front of your eyes and violating the Constitution. Even President Obama is in the group. Yes, it is true.
Clinton lost SC
Clinton is a Democrat you moron. This rule does not apply to us.
Only the Republican Party goes by this.

sorry messed up the quote
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle