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2012 Electoral Map

jimtimmy
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2/22/2012 5:28:41 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
As we all know, the 2012 presidential election will not be decided by the popular vote, but the electoral vote.

I just wanted to do a run down of the current electoral map. First, I want to be clear. I am assuming here that Mitt Romney is the Republican nominee. I understand that that is hardly a certainty. But, I do still see him as the favorite and the closest to the "default Republican".

So, this is an Obama vs Romney scenario.

First, I want to look to RCP, which is a very reliable and accurate source. They look at numerous polls and other sources to get their projections.

According to them, 181 electoral points are currently leaning towards Romney or are likely Romney. Likewise, 217 electoral points are either leaning Obama or likely Obama.

As you know, it requires 270 electoral votes to win. That means that 11 "toss-up" states, worth 140 electoral points, will likely decide the election. These states are Nevada (6 points), Colorado (9 points), Missouri (10 points), Iowa (6 points), Wisconsin (10 points), Ohio (18 points), Pennsylvania (20 points), Virginia (13 points), North Carolina (15 points), Florida (29 points), and New Hampshire (4 points).

Even though these are all declared as "toss-up" states by RCP, some do seem to be leaning more in one direction.

Wisconsin, even though it is declared a "toss-up" state, has gone Democratic in every election since 1984 and a poll came out today (February 22) showing Obama with a 15 point lead over Romney. Likewise, Colorado has a lot of young voters and an increasing hispanic population. These are demographics that favor Obama. Given that he won in both of these states by a large margin in 2008, both of these states seem more like leaning Obama than toss-up.

On the other side, North Carolina seems to be more favorable to Mitt Romney. It did go very narrowly for Obama in 2008, with a lot of enthusiasm from African American supporters. This was actually a shocker, as North Carolina is a traditionally Republican state. It is unlikely that Obama will pull another miracle here, as 2012 appears to be more competitive and, for Obama, less enthusiastic than 2008. Another state that probably leans towards Romney is Missouri. This state went for Mccain in 2008. Given his huge margin of victory in 2008, it is unlikely Obama will take any states that Mccain won in 2008 in a more competitive 2012 election.

After taking these states into account, Obama has 236 electoral points and Romney has 206 electoral points. This leaves Nevada, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida, and New Hampshire as the deciding states.

Despite its high Mormon population, I think Obama will take Nevada. Recent polls show him with a small lead. This is largely as a result of the large hispanic population and better organization here on Obama's part.

Obama will also likely take Iowa. After all, he got his first primary victory here, while Romney lost here twice in a row. Plus, Obama won here by a huge margin in 2008.

Ohio, on the other hand, will likely go Republican narrowly. Polls show a very tight race here. Obama has a real weakness with white working class voters in the rust belt. If Romney can capitalize on that, which I think he will, he can take this state.

The same goes for Pennsylvania. This was a state John Mccain tried very hard to get in 2008. The reason for this is that Pennsylvania is filled with Reagan Democrats, Democrats that are willing to vote for national Republicans. Furthermore, Pennsylvania has been trending Republican with party registration going more towards Republicans in recent years. To make all of this worse, Obama has made numerous gaffes about Pennsylvania which gives him a special weakness there.

New Hampshire will likely go for Romney. Bush won New Hampshire in 2000. Romney, as a northeasthern Republican who won his first 2012 primary here, will take New Hampshire's 4 electoral votes. This is largely because of his ability to appeal to suburban independants.

Virginia will also go for Romney. A very recent poll showed Romney up by 3 points over Obama in Virginia. Virginia is a traditionally red state that happened to go blue in a very blue year. It will likely not happen again.

Finally, Florida will go for Romney too. The polls here are very tight. However, the GOP has their convention in Florida. On top of this, they have recently elected conservative Republicans to the Senate, House, and Governor. They do have a large hispanic population here, but they are mostly more conservative Cubans. Florida will go red again this year.

After all of this, Mitt Romney gets 290 electoral votes and Barack Obama gets 248. Romney becomes president and Obama only serves 1 term. I will update this as the landscape changes, but that is my prediction for now.
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16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/22/2012 5:35:45 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
My prediction 2 states in the air gossip ones:
http://electoralmap.net...
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
16kadams
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2/22/2012 5:36:24 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/22/2012 5:35:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
My prediction 2 states in the air gossip ones:
http://electoralmap.net...

This is it:
http://ElectoralMap.net...
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
jimtimmy
Posts: 3,953
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2/22/2012 5:37:32 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/22/2012 5:36:24 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/22/2012 5:35:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
My prediction 2 states in the air gossip ones:
http://electoralmap.net...


This is it:
http://ElectoralMap.net...

May I ask why Tennessee goes blue?
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16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/22/2012 5:46:47 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/22/2012 5:41:04 PM, jimtimmy wrote:
Here is a visual of my predicted Electoral Map:


http://ElectoralMap.net...

Dude nm hates Obama now, our economy is tanking and in 08 it was close. 5$ we go red in 2012.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/22/2012 5:49:08 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/22/2012 5:37:32 PM, jimtimmy wrote:
At 2/22/2012 5:36:24 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/22/2012 5:35:45 PM, 16kadams wrote:
My prediction 2 states in the air gossip ones:
http://electoralmap.net...


This is it:
http://ElectoralMap.net...


May I ask why Tennessee goes blue?

I just randomly did that one.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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2/22/2012 5:58:33 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/22/2012 5:46:47 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Dude nm hates Obama now, our economy is tanking and in 08 it was close. 5$ we go red in 2012.

Hence why New Mexico keeps giving Obama a clear advantage in every single poll done so far... they just hate him so much.
16kadams
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2/22/2012 11:06:57 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/22/2012 5:58:33 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 2/22/2012 5:46:47 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Dude nm hates Obama now, our economy is tanking and in 08 it was close. 5$ we go red in 2012.

Hence why New Mexico keeps giving Obama a clear advantage in every single poll done so far... they just hate him so much.

It's 45-45 in GS strategy polls. And our economy is worse than in 08. Yeah we hate him here in nm.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
jimtimmy
Posts: 3,953
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2/23/2012 12:37:05 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/22/2012 11:06:57 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 2/22/2012 5:58:33 PM, Volkov wrote:
At 2/22/2012 5:46:47 PM, 16kadams wrote:
Dude nm hates Obama now, our economy is tanking and in 08 it was close. 5$ we go red in 2012.

Hence why New Mexico keeps giving Obama a clear advantage in every single poll done so far... they just hate him so much.

It's 45-45 in GS strategy polls. And our economy is worse than in 08. Yeah we hate him here in nm.

I will say that Obama seems to have a pretty big lead in New Mexico. But, that could change by November.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com...
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Maikuru
Posts: 9,112
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2/24/2012 1:39:38 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
I enjoyed your analysis but I can't imagine PA going red. What PA-specific Obama gaffs were you referring to?
"You assume I wouldn't want to burn this whole place to the ground."
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jimtimmy
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2/24/2012 1:44:35 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/24/2012 1:39:38 AM, Maikuru wrote:
I enjoyed your analysis but I can't imagine PA going red. What PA-specific Obama gaffs were you referring to?

Well, they were in 2008. There was the famous gaffe where he said that Pennsylvanians clung to their "God and Guns".

Other than that, Obama does seem to have trouble connecting to white working class voters. Although, to be fair, Mitt Romney certainly isn't great at that either.

Actually, a poll came out today that shows Obama leading Romney in PA by 8 points. However, I still think PA will go red because Obama still only has 41% of the vote. A lot of voters are persuadable in PA and the trend seems Republican.

So, it will be very close. In fact, I think the election will hinge on PA and FL. I think Romney takes both in the end, however.
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Volkov
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2/24/2012 10:52:03 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/22/2012 11:06:57 PM, 16kadams wrote:
It's 45-45 in GS strategy polls. And our economy is worse than in 08. Yeah we hate him here in nm.

I'm sorry, what BS are you trying to peddle?

http://en.wikipedia.org...
jimtimmy
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2/24/2012 6:19:45 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/24/2012 1:39:38 AM, Maikuru wrote:
I enjoyed your analysis but I can't imagine PA going red. What PA-specific Obama gaffs were you referring to?

Okay, a new Rasmussen poll came out today in PA showing Romney only 1 point down in PA.

Obama seems to have a special weakness in PA. That is why I think it will go red.

Here is the poll:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com...
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HerrOber
Posts: 14
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2/24/2012 6:20:52 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
All blue, or for you Repub/Cons, Obama.
OberHerr is my incredibly stupid, and mentally deficient brother!

AND I AM HERROBER!@@!$!@$!@$!@$!$
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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2/24/2012 6:51:12 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 2/24/2012 10:52:03 AM, Volkov wrote:
At 2/22/2012 11:06:57 PM, 16kadams wrote:
It's 45-45 in GS strategy polls. And our economy is worse than in 08. Yeah we hate him here in nm.

I'm sorry, what BS are you trying to peddle?

http://en.wikipedia.org...

Im sorry you use different polls. I'm sorry that you don't live here.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross