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Why Newt Gingrich Still Might Win

jimtimmy
Posts: 3,953
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3/5/2012 6:33:01 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Newt Gingrich has been counted out by the media. This would be the third time that he has been counted out by the media. To be honest, even I began to think that Gingrich was out.

However, I don't think that anymore. In fact, I think Newt Gingrich has a better shot at being nominee than Rick Santorum does. Although, Mitt Romney is still the clear favorite.

Anyways, the key for this is tommorrow night. The super tuesday primaries where 10 states will have their nominating contests.

Mitt Romney has a few in his bag. Romney will win his home state of Massachussetts, the nearby state of Vermont, and Virginia where Gingrich and Santorum aren't on the ballot. Romney will probably also win Idaho, North Dakota, and Alaska. Although, you never know about Ron Paul surprise in those small caucus states. And, to make matters more complicated, there aren't any polls from Idaho, North Dakota, or Alaska, so this is purely conjecture. But, it still seems likely that Romney carries these states.

Anyways, now to Santorum, Santorum's does not have any states clearly in his quarter. Oklahoma could be an easy win for Santorum. The last poll had him way ahead there, but there has been a lot of movement in the primary since then. But, for the sake of this post, we will say Santorum carries Oklahoma.

Finally, Gingrich has the largest primary of the night, his home state of Georgia. He is far ahead here.

Now, to go to the swing states. The two big swing states are Tennessee and Ohio. Of course, there could be an upset somewhere else. But, as far as the data show, Tennessee and Ohio are the battlegrounds.

In Ohio, it is a two man race between Romney and Santorum. In Tennessee, it is a three man race between Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich.

Two polls from Tennessee came out today. One showed Santorum and Gingrich with 29 each and Romney with 30. The other showed Santorum with 34, Romney with 29, and Gingrich with 27.

However, and this bodes well for Gingrich, Gingrich seems to have many advantages in Tennessee. First, Gingrich has a ton of momentum in Tennessee. Just a couple of days ago, Gingrich was far behind here. However, he has rallied in the last couple days.

Even better, Gingrich had not even been on TV in Tennessee before today. His campaign bought major ad time for his popular $2.50 a gallon gas message. This should give Gingrich a very legitimate shot of winning Tennessee.

Meanwhile, Romney has the momentum in Ohio. Ohio will be very close. So, this could be a late night here. But, given momentum, network, and money, Romney seems to be favored.

Anyways, imagine the following scenario on Super Tuesday. Romney carries all of his states plus Ohio. Santorum only carries Oklahoma (and that isnt even certain), and Newt Gingrich carries Georgia and Tennessee.

Santorum would have a very dissapointing night and people would begin to think that he can't beat Romney or Obama.

It seems that Newt Gingrich would all of the sudden be a serious contender again. In fact, he would probably be favored over Santorum.

4 days later, Kansas along with Virgin Islands, Guam, and the Northern Marianas will hold their primaries. Since it is a Santorum friendly state and we are being kind to him, we can say Santorum takes Kansas and Romney takes the rest.

Anyways, 3 days after that Mississippi, Alabama, American Samoa, and Hawaii all hold primaries. If Gingrich wins Georgia and Tennessee (or even just Georgia), he will be favored in the larger primaries in Mississippi and Alabama, two Gingrich friendly states.

After this, Gingrich would have the momentum. I'm not gonna go through the rest of the primary. But, Gingrich could win states like Texas and NC... possibly even a place like PA if Santorum drops out and endorses him by that point.

He could be the nominee. I'm not saying he will be, just that he could.
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Lordknukle
Posts: 12,788
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3/5/2012 6:36:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Romney is going to win.

This is non-negotiable.
"Easy is the descent to Avernus, for the door to the Underworld lies upon both day and night. But to retrace your steps and return to the breezes above- that's the task, that's the toil."
jimtimmy
Posts: 3,953
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3/5/2012 6:40:06 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 3/5/2012 6:36:59 PM, Lordknukle wrote:
Romney is going to win.

This is non-negotiable.

Very likely, but not certain.
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1dustpelt
Posts: 1,970
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3/5/2012 6:43:21 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Romney, the liar, flip-flopper, is going to win :(
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thett3
Posts: 14,378
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3/5/2012 8:12:50 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I just hope he lasts long enough to rack up some delegates and give us a brokered convention. Otherwise, it's Obama 2012 for sure
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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
UnStupendousMan
Posts: 3,475
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3/5/2012 8:24:31 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 3/5/2012 8:12:50 PM, thett3 wrote:
I just hope he lasts long enough to rack up some delegates and give us a brokered convention. Otherwise, it's Obama 2012 for sure

+1, especially the latter statement. Obama is making cash angels in all the money that is in his presidential campaign.
Zaradi
Posts: 14,127
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3/5/2012 8:25:48 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 3/5/2012 8:12:50 PM, thett3 wrote:
I just hope he lasts long enough to rack up some delegates and give us a brokered convention. Otherwise, it's Obama 2012 for sure

And no one really wants Obama 2012.
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thett3
Posts: 14,378
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3/5/2012 8:27:24 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 3/5/2012 8:24:31 PM, UnStupendousMan wrote:
At 3/5/2012 8:12:50 PM, thett3 wrote:
I just hope he lasts long enough to rack up some delegates and give us a brokered convention. Otherwise, it's Obama 2012 for sure

+1, especially the latter statement. Obama is making cash angels in all the money that is in his presidential campaign.

Democrats were seriously voting for Santorum in Michigan because Romney at least has a chance against Obama. But really, I want someone to point out a hardcore Romney supporter to me, because I've never met one and can't really imagine....

Compare that to Obama; in TEXAS of all places I can name at least a dozen hardcore Obama fans.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

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"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Scorbie
Posts: 78
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3/5/2012 8:47:22 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
watch and learn about how Caucus states work Paul will not win, but Florida will definitely be a brokerage Convention. Hopefully Ron Paul will try to be the Treasurer from Mitt Romney. Otherwise this nomination is going to get nasty.