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Iranian Cleric Split

Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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7/5/2009 11:39:57 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
http://news.bbc.co.uk...

It appears that the ruling Iranian cleric council is starting to split in opinion.

Several major players, including a former Prime Minister, are speaking out against the Guardian Council, saying that the air of impartiality that the Council should have is no longer apparent.

I believe that this split is more out of fear of loss of power than the results of the election itself. The more corrupt and biased the unelected Ayatollahs and Guardian Council seems, the more change and revolution the citizens will want.

The name of the game is trust - the more trust people have in the Iranian system, the more they'll want to keep it stable. If the clerics can't keep the people's trust, then they'll lose their stability and their power. This split group is trying to save the integrity of the cleric-run system in the face of deep disappointment.

This happens all the time - we saw it with the recent American election, as well. The GOP tried to cut itself loose of the Bush legacy in an attempt to boost poor ratings and deep distrust among the public - they failed, spectacularly at that. Will the same happen with the Iranian clerics?
LB628
Posts: 176
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7/5/2009 12:12:51 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
Indeed.
http://www.nytimes.com...

I have a slightly better view of human nature than you apparently do, so I think it is for mixed reasons. Partially, they want to maintain their own power, but at this point speaking out to maintain power would be foolish unless they also believed, at least slightly, that there was some fraud in the election. Given that the whole crisis does not yet have a clear winner, picking a side does not seem to be the pragmatic thing to do, unless there is some idealism mixed in as well.
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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7/5/2009 12:22:09 PM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/5/2009 12:12:51 PM, LB628 wrote:
I have a slightly better view of human nature than you apparently do, so I think it is for mixed reasons. Partially, they want to maintain their own power, but at this point speaking out to maintain power would be foolish unless they also believed, at least slightly, that there was some fraud in the election. Given that the whole crisis does not yet have a clear winner, picking a side does not seem to be the pragmatic thing to do, unless there is some idealism mixed in as well.

When is there not idealism mixed in with it? I don't deny that some of them probably do believe there was fraud in the election, and I do know that a majority of the clerics and politicians speaking out are Reform sympathizers - but that isn't the point.

If they show some sympathy with what the protesters want, it will give them a slight-to-significant boost in their popularity. If they show that they want 'hope' and 'change,' they'll gain the public's trust. If they have the public's trust, the unelected clerics will keep a hold of their power, or they may even have enough support to overthrow the regime that currently holds power.

As I said, trust is the name of the game.
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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7/6/2009 8:28:02 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
Let's just hope that the current government of Iran is willing to tolerate a viable opposition... I have seen little to suggest that they will.
Volkov
Posts: 9,765
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7/6/2009 11:02:54 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
At 7/6/2009 8:28:02 AM, JBlake wrote:
Let's just hope that the current government of Iran is willing to tolerate a viable opposition... I have seen little to suggest that they will.

The way I see it, if the opposition keeps getting momentum, then they'll become the new, horrible regime. It reminds me of Russian politics; trade one despotic regime for another. Tsarist Russia for Soviet Union, Soviet Union for Putin's Russia, etc.
JBlake
Posts: 4,634
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7/6/2009 11:06:45 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
I don't think the opposition could get away with being equally despotic. They'll have to offer some concessions to the people (in the form of some modernization, a bit more democracy, &ct.) It might take them generations of politicians to reach something we would consider acceptable, but they would begin moving in that direction if the opposition somehow takes over.
brian_eggleston
Posts: 3,347
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7/8/2009 10:59:03 AM
Posted: 7 years ago
It is no secret that Israel plans to attack Iran regardless of whether or not America gives them permission.

Former Israeli intelligence chief, Meir Amit, said:

"I suggest we cannot take Obama as a point to influence our activities. We have to control our own activities and decide the right timing,...I am in favor of using the power of force against Iran...when you decide to attack someone, you don't let that person or country know anything about the timing in advance....I am not impressed by Iran's threats. We have to do what we think should be done....we have good intelligence and we shall decide what is the right timing for any attack."

http://www.reuters.com...

Furthermore, many influential Israelis and Jewish Americans believe that President Obama is a Muslim, and, therefore in their minds, an enemy of Israel.

http://www.israelnationalnews.com...

Once Israel attacks Iran, all Iranian clerics, politicians and people will come together to defend their country and all old enmities will be forgotten.
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