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Thoughts On The Israeli-Iranian Conflict

jat93
Posts: 1,440
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7/18/2012 5:12:44 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
The more I learn about the growing Israeli-Iranian conflict, the more I realize the terrible irony of Israel portraying Iran as an evil, aggressive state which poses a huge threat to Israel's safety. Just three ironies -
1) the Persians haven't launched a conventional war in centuries, but Israel has in the last decade alone.

2) Iran has no nukes, but Israel has hundreds. Not to mention a vastly superior army.

3) The Israeli govt has murdered several Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and has supported Jundallah terrorists, a militant group at one point linked to Al-Qaeda, and encouraged them to attack Iran. They did, and many innocent Iranian civilians were killed. The Israeli government tried to pin the whole thing on America's CIA, no less. (Proof for this can be found here - http://news.antiwar.com...)

So, we have several undeniable facts:

- Israel has a better army than Iran does
- Israel has hundreds more nukes than Iran does
- Israel has a considerably more militaristic, aggressive (in terms of foreign policy) history than Iran does
- Israel has murdered many Iranian citizens, through targeted assassinations (unprovoked and incognito of course) and supporting militant terrorist organizations.

It seems to me that one of these two countries should indeed be worrying about its security/survival because of threats and violence from the other one. Israel is not that country.
CiRrK
Posts: 670
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7/18/2012 6:34:50 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/18/2012 5:12:44 PM, jat93 wrote:
The more I learn about the growing Israeli-Iranian conflict, the more I realize the terrible irony of Israel portraying Iran as an evil, aggressive state which poses a huge threat to Israel's safety. Just three ironies -
1) the Persians haven't launched a conventional war in centuries, but Israel has in the last decade alone.

2) Iran has no nukes, but Israel has hundreds. Not to mention a vastly superior army.

3) The Israeli govt has murdered several Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and has supported Jundallah terrorists, a militant group at one point linked to Al-Qaeda, and encouraged them to attack Iran. They did, and many innocent Iranian civilians were killed. The Israeli government tried to pin the whole thing on America's CIA, no less. (Proof for this can be found here - http://news.antiwar.com...)

So, we have several undeniable facts:

- Israel has a better army than Iran does
- Israel has hundreds more nukes than Iran does
- Israel has a considerably more militaristic, aggressive (in terms of foreign policy) history than Iran does
- Israel has murdered many Iranian citizens, through targeted assassinations (unprovoked and incognito of course) and supporting militant terrorist organizations.

It seems to me that one of these two countries should indeed be worrying about its security/survival because of threats and violence from the other one. Israel is not that country.

Theres a few problems with your claims:

1) The government of Tehran is vastly different from its previous regime setups.

2) Iran's army, the RG and various proxy groups is equal to Israel in terms of conventional strength.

3) The previous wars Israel has fought were in response to border militarizations by neighboring countries.

4) Iran has aided, funded and trained many more terror proxies and militant groups than Israel (even assuming that the source is valid, which in it it says that it isnt completely verified).

Would you like to debate whether Israel should strike Iran's nuclear facilities? (In an actual debate)
CiRrK
Posts: 670
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7/18/2012 6:37:00 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Oh and theres no verification of Israeli nukes either...though most likely they do have nukes from former Soviet Union sites
jat93
Posts: 1,440
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7/18/2012 7:03:39 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/18/2012 6:34:50 PM, CiRrK wrote:
At 7/18/2012 5:12:44 PM, jat93 wrote:
The more I learn about the growing Israeli-Iranian conflict, the more I realize the terrible irony of Israel portraying Iran as an evil, aggressive state which poses a huge threat to Israel's safety. Just three ironies -
1) the Persians haven't launched a conventional war in centuries, but Israel has in the last decade alone.

2) Iran has no nukes, but Israel has hundreds. Not to mention a vastly superior army.

3) The Israeli govt has murdered several Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and has supported Jundallah terrorists, a militant group at one point linked to Al-Qaeda, and encouraged them to attack Iran. They did, and many innocent Iranian civilians were killed. The Israeli government tried to pin the whole thing on America's CIA, no less. (Proof for this can be found here - http://news.antiwar.com...)

So, we have several undeniable facts:

- Israel has a better army than Iran does
- Israel has hundreds more nukes than Iran does
- Israel has a considerably more militaristic, aggressive (in terms of foreign policy) history than Iran does
- Israel has murdered many Iranian citizens, through targeted assassinations (unprovoked and incognito of course) and supporting militant terrorist organizations.

It seems to me that one of these two countries should indeed be worrying about its security/survival because of threats and violence from the other one. Israel is not that country.

Theres a few problems with your claims:

1) The government of Tehran is vastly different from its previous regime setups.

How so? I'm not trying to reject this, I'm simply looking to refine my knowledge of the subject, because as you can probably tell, it isn't extensive.

2) Iran's army, the RG and various proxy groups is equal to Israel in terms of conventional strength.

Can you prove this?

3) The previous wars Israel has fought were in response to border militarizations by neighboring countries.

First of all, no matter what the justifications are, the point is that Israel has initiated wars recently and Iran hasn't for centuries. The way Bibi Netanyahu talks about Israel and Iran, you'd be led to think Israel was a nation led by committed non-interventionists and Iran was some evil, hyper-interventionist country. The point wasn't whether or not the wars were justified or unjustified, just that Israel has declared war several times in recent decades, but Iran has not. I feel that these facts are important to bear in mind - but if I could be convinced that there is good reason to believe that the current administration in Tehran will break from that tradition, I suppose the point would be moot.

4) Iran has aided, funded and trained many more terror proxies and militant groups than Israel (even assuming that the source is valid, which in it it says that it isnt completely verified).

This I am aware of and will not attempt to deny. However, what is of relevance to this discussion is using terror/militant groups against the other country. Has Iran been using terror proxies and militant groups to murder people in Israel? If so, I wasn't aware, and my 3rd point is basically negated. If not, I believe the point stands, because it means that Israel has incited unprovoked violence against Iran. Also, the militant group was especially relevant because, as I said, Israel portrays themselves as the ultimate defenders of democracy and justice, and Iran as an aggressive and evil state that will stop at nothing to murder Israelis. That's why it's ironic, because Israel was apparently partaking in the very kind of thing they say they call Iran evil for doing.

If you're not happy with that source, check out this one, which I think was referred to by link in that first source - http://www.foreignpolicy.com...


Would you like to debate whether Israel should strike Iran's nuclear facilities? (In an actual debate)

No, not at all, not yet any way. I've been interested in politics/history for about a year, and Middle Eastern politics for even less. I'm not ready to debate a hard stance because I haven't fully developed one. Certainly not with someone who specializes on the subject and knows 1000x more about it than I do.That's why I post these forums - to get critiques from people like you and see if the conclusions I've reached at this point can survive scrutiny. That's why I prefer a dialogue with multiple people. At some point in the near future, when I've reached an amount of knowledge on this topic that satisfies me, I'll be sure to contact you and we can debate.
jat93
Posts: 1,440
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7/18/2012 7:09:07 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/18/2012 6:37:00 PM, CiRrK wrote:
Oh and theres no verification of Israeli nukes either...though most likely they do have nukes from former Soviet Union sites

I know they have a policy of nuclear ambiguity, but come on, everyone knows they've got them. From the Wikipedia page on Nuclear weapons and Israel -

Israel is widely believed to possess nuclear weapons[5][6] and to be the sixth country in the world to develop them.[7] It is one of four nuclear-armed countries not recognized as a Nuclear Weapons State by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the others being India, Pakistan and North Korea.[8] Israel maintains a policy known as "nuclear ambiguity" (also known as "nuclear opacity").[9][10] Israel has never officially admitted to having nuclear weapons, instead repeating over the years that it would not be the first country to "introduce" nuclear weapons to the Middle East, leaving ambiguity as to whether it means it will not create, will not disclose, will not make first use of the weapons or possibly some other interpretation of the phrase... [12] Israel has refused to sign the NPT despite international pressure to do so, and has stated that signing the NPT would be contrary to its national security interests.[13]

Israel is currently believed to possess between 75 and 400 nuclear warheads with the ability to deliver them by intercontinental ballistic missile, aircraft, and submarine.[2]

In 1991 alone, as the Soviet Union dissolved, nearly 20 top Jewish Soviet scientists reportedly emigrated to Israel, some of whom had been involved in operating nuclear power plants and planning for the next generation of Soviet reactors. In September 1992, German intelligence was quoted in the press as estimating that 40 top Jewish Soviet nuclear scientists had emigrated to Israel since 1989.[59]

In a 2010 interview, Uzi Eilam, former head of the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission, told to the Israeli daily Maariv that the nuclear reactor in Dimona had been through extensive improvements and renovations and is now functioning as new, with no safety problems or hazard to the surrounding environment or the region.

Also, according to the Natural Resources Defense Council and the Federation of American Scientists, Israel likely possesses around 75–200 nuclear weapons.

So yeah, I'm personally pretty convinced that they have close to 100 nukes at least.
MrBrooks
Posts: 831
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7/18/2012 9:11:23 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
This whole Israeli-Iranian conflict has just made it more clear to me that the United States should abandon the Middle East and become energy independent. Remove all regulations from the shale oil drilling, and build the pipeline to Canada. Problem solved, let Israel and Iran sort out their own damn problems.
darkkermit
Posts: 11,204
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7/18/2012 9:14:38 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/18/2012 9:11:23 PM, MrBrooks wrote:
This whole Israeli-Iranian conflict has just made it more clear to me that the United States should abandon the Middle East and become energy independent. Remove all regulations from the shale oil drilling, and build the pipeline to Canada. Problem solved, let Israel and Iran sort out their own damn problems.

Very little oil is actually imported from the middle east. And even if we achieve "energy independence" then the cost of oil will still respond to world markets. So any problems that occur in the middle east would cause the price of oil to rise.
Open borders debate:
http://www.debate.org...
CiRrK
Posts: 670
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7/18/2012 9:37:02 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 7/18/2012 7:03:39 PM, jat93 wrote:
At 7/18/2012 6:34:50 PM, CiRrK wrote:
At 7/18/2012 5:12:44 PM, jat93 wrote:
The more I learn about the growing Israeli-Iranian conflict, the more I realize the terrible irony of Israel portraying Iran as an evil, aggressive state which poses a huge threat to Israel's safety. Just three ironies -
1) the Persians haven't launched a conventional war in centuries, but Israel has in the last decade alone.

2) Iran has no nukes, but Israel has hundreds. Not to mention a vastly superior army.

3) The Israeli govt has murdered several Iranian nuclear scientists in recent years, and has supported Jundallah terrorists, a militant group at one point linked to Al-Qaeda, and encouraged them to attack Iran. They did, and many innocent Iranian civilians were killed. The Israeli government tried to pin the whole thing on America's CIA, no less. (Proof for this can be found here - http://news.antiwar.com...)

So, we have several undeniable facts:

- Israel has a better army than Iran does
- Israel has hundreds more nukes than Iran does
- Israel has a considerably more militaristic, aggressive (in terms of foreign policy) history than Iran does
- Israel has murdered many Iranian citizens, through targeted assassinations (unprovoked and incognito of course) and supporting militant terrorist organizations.

It seems to me that one of these two countries should indeed be worrying about its security/survival because of threats and violence from the other one. Israel is not that country.

Theres a few problems with your claims:

1) The government of Tehran is vastly different from its previous regime setups.

How so? I'm not trying to reject this, I'm simply looking to refine my knowledge of the subject, because as you can probably tell, it isn't extensive.

As Im sure you know the regime is a Theocracy that wants the Middle East to be Shia dominated, however this ideological difference vastly impacts the geostrategic makeup up of the Middle East. The Gulf is dominantly Sunni, led by Saudi Arabia which seeks regional dominance for Sunni Muslims. Whereas the past governments, partly democratic and dictatorial (the Shah) were concerned about balancing interests in the region, the strongly ideological perspective skews the decision calculus of Iran. But moreover, the ruling body, the Mullahs themselves are split between moderate and ultra-conservative actions, with the Revolutionary Guard leaning towards the ultra-conservative side. So this regime is constantly in an internal battle between realist politics (regime survival) and identity politics (expanding the shia base).

2) Iran's army, the RG and various proxy groups is equal to Israel in terms of conventional strength.

Can you prove this?

http://iranprimer.usip.org...

The conventional military of Iran, isolated, is very weak. However, with groups like Hezbollah, Hamas and now even Al Qaeda (which is ironic) Iran can balance the strength of Israel's conventional military with proxy wars. From a geostrategic perspective, Iran might have the upperhand because proxy agents force a conventional military to split their forces between offense and defense. This is what made the Vietnam War so deadly: the Vietcong were able to infiltrate the South and cause havoc there which severely crippled the offensive ability of the South. In Israel's case, they must defend not just their Northern borders but also must defend themselves internally from sympathizers from Hamas.

So to answer your question, on a one on one battle between Israel and Iran, Israel would dominate the conventional battlefield. However when you add proxy agents to the equation, Israel needs to sacrifice conventional force (thereby equalizing the imbalance).

3) The previous wars Israel has fought were in response to border militarizations by neighboring countries.

First of all, no matter what the justifications are, the point is that Israel has initiated wars recently and Iran hasn't for centuries. The way Bibi Netanyahu talks about Israel and Iran, you'd be led to think Israel was a nation led by committed non-interventionists and Iran was some evil, hyper-interventionist country. The point wasn't whether or not the wars were justified or unjustified, just that Israel has declared war several times in recent decades, but Iran has not. I feel that these facts are important to bear in mind - but if I could be convinced that there is good reason to believe that the current administration in Tehran will break from that tradition, I suppose the point would be moot.

I thought the reason was whether Iran should fear Israel or Israel should fear Iran. The justification is very important because Israel isnt just seeking confrontation. That would destroy the whole purpose of the Zionist project. Israel does not call for Iran to give up its land to migrant Persian farmers and Zorastrians. On the point about Iranian war, Iran is in a constant war so to speak with Israel by funding Hezbollah attacks on the Northern border and funding Hamas terror attacks. Even though its not a conventional military war doesnt mean Iran isnt hostile to Israel.

4) Iran has aided, funded and trained many more terror proxies and militant groups than Israel (even assuming that the source is valid, which in it it says that it isnt completely verified).

This I am aware of and will not attempt to deny. However, what is of relevance to this discussion is using terror/militant groups against the other country. Has Iran been using terror proxies and militant groups to murder people in Israel? If so, I wasn't aware, and my 3rd point is basically negated. If not, I believe the point stands, because it means that Israel has incited unprovoked violence against Iran. Also, the militant group was especially relevant because, as I said, Israel portrays themselves as the ultimate defenders of democracy and justice, and Iran as an aggressive and evil state that will stop at nothing to murder Israelis. That's why it's ironic, because Israel was apparently partaking in the very kind of thing they say they call Iran evil for doing.

And yes Iran is the bank of Hezbollah and biggest arms dealer. So if you say Israel is responsible for the militant attacks against Iran then you would agree that Iran is responsible for the Hezbollah attacks. Oh and in terms of timeframe, Hezbollah has been attacking Israel since the 1990s.

But I have a question for you. Who do you think has a more oppressive regime: Israel or Iran?