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My 2012 Election Prediction

DetectableNinja
Posts: 6,043
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8/7/2012 8:10:11 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Using 270towin's interactive map, and specifically their election histories, I made my own prediction.

My prediction turns out to be a very close win for Romney, at 274-264. What do you think of my prediction? Sucks? Good? Etc? http://www.270towin.com...
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NixonianVolkswagen
Posts: 481
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8/8/2012 4:28:21 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
My own view is that Obama will win, although it's a credit to Republican hammering & organization that it's so close.

I like your map though. :)
"There is an almost universal tendency, perhaps an inborn tendency, to suspect the good faith of a man who holds opinions that differ from our own opinions."

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ravenwaen
Posts: 96
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8/8/2012 6:27:15 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Your prediction isn't really in line with what the polls say.

Take a look at FiveThirtyEight, one of the best election bloggers out there. Nate Silver is a professional statistician who does political prediction models. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.
ravenwaen
Posts: 96
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8/8/2012 6:30:36 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Although Virginia and Florida have fluctuated a bunch in the past few weeks and months, Colorado and Ohio haven't. Since Obama has held a consistent lead in CO and OH, a better prediction would be a 291-247 win for Obama.
Brain_crazy
Posts: 242
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8/8/2012 8:56:50 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/7/2012 8:10:11 PM, DetectableNinja wrote:
Using 270towin's interactive map, and specifically their election histories, I made my own prediction.

My prediction turns out to be a very close win for Romney, at 274-264. What do you think of my prediction? Sucks? Good? Etc? http://www.270towin.com...

I personally think Romney will be beaten handily. His recent foreign affairs tour was absolute horrendous.
thett3
Posts: 14,382
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8/8/2012 9:04:15 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Your map is reasonable, except that there's around a .0001% chance of a Nebraska split again, ESPECIALLY if Romney wins over all.
DDO Vice President

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: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
thett3
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8/8/2012 9:24:04 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/8/2012 6:27:15 AM, ravenwaen wrote:
Your prediction isn't really in line with what the polls say.

Take a look at FiveThirtyEight, one of the best election bloggers out there. Nate Silver is a professional statistician who does political prediction models. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.

Fivethirtyeight is just one election forecast model, and I personally believe it focuses too much on day to day events instead of a broad picture, if you really watch it fivethrityeight fluctuates almost every week. The bread and peace model is better and has only been off (and only a bit) in 1996 and 2000, all the way back to 1964. It predicts a Romney win. http://www.douglas-hibbs.com...

You also need to remember that 1. Polls right now matter very little. Romney has hardly advertised and has yet to pick his VP. People know very little about him. 2. Many polls in those states are from democratic leaning pollsters like PPP, and 3. The polls are currently measuring registered voters, not likely voters. When you start taking likely voters, the Republican vote share goes up 2-3 points.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Apollo.11
Posts: 3,478
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8/8/2012 9:28:20 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I think it's a testament to the tactful intelligence of the Obama campaign that despite decreasing in support within the popular vote, the projected electoral count for Obama is going up.
Sapere Aude!
thett3
Posts: 14,382
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8/8/2012 9:32:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/8/2012 9:24:04 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 8/8/2012 6:27:15 AM, ravenwaen wrote:
Your prediction isn't really in line with what the polls say.

Take a look at FiveThirtyEight, one of the best election bloggers out there. Nate Silver is a professional statistician who does political prediction models. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.


Fivethirtyeight is just one election forecast model, and I personally believe it focuses too much on day to day events instead of a broad picture, if you really watch it fivethrityeight fluctuates almost every week. The bread and peace model is better and has only been off (and only a bit) in 1996 and 2000, all the way back to 1964. It predicts a Romney win. http://www.douglas-hibbs.com...

You also need to remember that 1. Polls right now matter very little. Romney has hardly advertised and has yet to pick his VP. People know very little about him. 2. Many polls in those states are from democratic leaning pollsters like PPP, and 3. The polls are currently measuring registered voters, not likely voters. When you start taking likely voters, the Republican vote share goes up 2-3 points.

Like, Silver thinks there's a 66% chance that Obama will take Virginia. Let's get real. Virginia has a PVI of R+2, and combine this with depressed democratic voter turnout and enthusiastic republicans...the polling indicates Obama leading there, and if the election were held today he would probably take it. But Obama has dumped $100,000,000++ into the swing states so far while Romney has done little more than fundraise thus far.

Silver places too much emphasis on polls. just today he dropped Obamas chances of taking Colorado by 9% over a single poll....thats wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much weight on a single poll.
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
Ore_Ele
Posts: 25,980
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8/8/2012 10:11:36 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/8/2012 9:32:59 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 8/8/2012 9:24:04 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 8/8/2012 6:27:15 AM, ravenwaen wrote:
Your prediction isn't really in line with what the polls say.

Take a look at FiveThirtyEight, one of the best election bloggers out there. Nate Silver is a professional statistician who does political prediction models. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.


Fivethirtyeight is just one election forecast model, and I personally believe it focuses too much on day to day events instead of a broad picture, if you really watch it fivethrityeight fluctuates almost every week. The bread and peace model is better and has only been off (and only a bit) in 1996 and 2000, all the way back to 1964. It predicts a Romney win. http://www.douglas-hibbs.com...

You also need to remember that 1. Polls right now matter very little. Romney has hardly advertised and has yet to pick his VP. People know very little about him. 2. Many polls in those states are from democratic leaning pollsters like PPP, and 3. The polls are currently measuring registered voters, not likely voters. When you start taking likely voters, the Republican vote share goes up 2-3 points.


Like, Silver thinks there's a 66% chance that Obama will take Virginia. Let's get real. Virginia has a PVI of R+2, and combine this with depressed democratic voter turnout and enthusiastic republicans...the polling indicates Obama leading there, and if the election were held today he would probably take it. But Obama has dumped $100,000,000++ into the swing states so far while Romney has done little more than fundraise thus far.

Not exactly.

http://elections.nytimes.com...

Total democrat spending (Obama, DNC, and super pacs) has been about $400 million up to June, while republican spending has been about $310 million.


Silver places too much emphasis on polls. just today he dropped Obamas chances of taking Colorado by 9% over a single poll....thats wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much weight on a single poll.

Not really, dropping his chances by 9% is not some massive amount. And current polls are showing that Obama is trailing there and that his approval is low. It would take a serious mess up by Romney, or a few months of 300k+ job growth to swing the difference.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
thett3
Posts: 14,382
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8/8/2012 10:15:37 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/8/2012 10:11:36 PM, Ore_Ele wrote:
At 8/8/2012 9:32:59 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 8/8/2012 9:24:04 PM, thett3 wrote:
At 8/8/2012 6:27:15 AM, ravenwaen wrote:
Your prediction isn't really in line with what the polls say.

Take a look at FiveThirtyEight, one of the best election bloggers out there. Nate Silver is a professional statistician who does political prediction models. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com...

Right now, his blog shows Obama as taking Florida, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado, and you didn't include those on your map.

You may predict that Romney will take all those states by the time the election comes, but that is very unlikely seeing as the trend is decidedly upward for Obama at this point, and all of those states went blue in 2008.


Fivethirtyeight is just one election forecast model, and I personally believe it focuses too much on day to day events instead of a broad picture, if you really watch it fivethrityeight fluctuates almost every week. The bread and peace model is better and has only been off (and only a bit) in 1996 and 2000, all the way back to 1964. It predicts a Romney win. http://www.douglas-hibbs.com...

You also need to remember that 1. Polls right now matter very little. Romney has hardly advertised and has yet to pick his VP. People know very little about him. 2. Many polls in those states are from democratic leaning pollsters like PPP, and 3. The polls are currently measuring registered voters, not likely voters. When you start taking likely voters, the Republican vote share goes up 2-3 points.


Like, Silver thinks there's a 66% chance that Obama will take Virginia. Let's get real. Virginia has a PVI of R+2, and combine this with depressed democratic voter turnout and enthusiastic republicans...the polling indicates Obama leading there, and if the election were held today he would probably take it. But Obama has dumped $100,000,000++ into the swing states so far while Romney has done little more than fundraise thus far.

Not exactly.

http://elections.nytimes.com...

Total democrat spending (Obama, DNC, and super pacs) has been about $400 million up to June, while republican spending has been about $310 million.

I was wrong about the numbers, but not only has Obama spent more, your source includes the spending in the Republican primary. Obama had no real primary, so all his spending was for the general election, where as most of Romneys spending until May was against Santorum or Gingrich


Silver places too much emphasis on polls. just today he dropped Obamas chances of taking Colorado by 9% over a single poll....thats wayyyyyyyyyyyy too much weight on a single poll.

Not really, dropping his chances by 9% is not some massive amount. And current polls are showing that Obama is trailing there and that his approval is low. It would take a serious mess up by Romney, or a few months of 300k+ job growth to swing the difference.

I can't speak of the approval ratings, but there wasn't a single poll showing Romney up in Colorado until this poll. I would say that a 9% chance is a pretty massive swing for one poll, but that's just my subjective opinion
DDO Vice President

#StandwithBossy

#UnbanTheMadman

#BetOnThett

"Don't quote me, ever." -Max

"My name is max. I'm not a big fan of slacks"- Max rapping

"Walmart should have the opportunity to bribe a politician to it's agenda" -Max

"Thett, you're really good at convincing people you're a decent person"-tulle

"You fit the character of Regina George quite nicely"- Sam

: At 11/12/2016 11:49:40 PM, Raisor wrote:
: thett was right
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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8/8/2012 10:18:40 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Using state poll data Obama win twice, using a few regressions on republican voter turnout Romney barely won.
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lewis20
Posts: 5,093
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8/8/2012 10:25:54 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I predict if Romney wins on the economy, he re-appoints everyone Obama appointed, who coincidentally are the same people Bush appointed. Because in all reality, dems and repubs are the same thing and nothing will change.
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