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Romney Falls Again on Elephant Watcher

1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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8/11/2012 2:12:17 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
The new rankings have come in from Elephant Watcher and its not good for Romney. He still has a good chance to win, but he picked a Paul Ryan, which EW sees as a negative effect. You might remember that Romney started with a 65% chance to win, it decreased to 62% when attacks on Bain were opened again, and now with the arrival of Ryan he is down to 57%. Obama has risen to 43%. Intrade had thought that Portman would get it, but he did not. Once again, Elephant Watcher has called in Intrade's accuracy. Here is there latest post:

"Mitt Romney announced today that he had chosen his vice presidential running mate: Paul Ryan, the U.S. House member from Wisconsin and current chairman of the House Budget Committee. The selection of Ryan came as a surprise to most observers. While Ryan had some supporters, most viewed Tim Pawlenty or Rob Portman as more likely choices. Recall that just yesterday, Intrade gave Ryan a less than 15% chance of being picked, while Portman was at 34.9% and Pawlenty was at 20%. After Intrade confidently, wrongly predicted that Obamacare's individual mandate would be overruled by the Supreme Court, one must continue to be skeptical about Intrade's ability to predict "secret" decisions.

In previous examinations of the VP decision-making process, we noted two popular theories: The first was the "first do no harm" theory that a "safe" choice should be made because a VP can hurt but not really help a ticket. The second theory is that a VP can help by broadening the appeal of the ticket.

The Ryan decision is perplexing in some ways, because he seems to be the worst of both worlds. On the one hand, he was widely regarded as a "risky" pick because of the big negative he carries: Ryan is associated with a very unpopular budget plan that involved privatizing Medicare. Indeed, "associated" may be an understatement, since it was known as the "Ryan Plan." Thus, Ryan fails the "do no harm" test. But on the other hand, he doesn't seem to have many qualities that would broaden the appeal of the ticket. Unlike Marco Rubio, who would have appealed to many independents (particularly Hispanics), Ryan would tend, if anything, to alienate independents.

It might also be noted that Ryan is young and looks young, and that his highest elected office is that of a U.S. House member--which does not require winning a state-wide election. However, since Ryan has held that office since 1999, he is less vulnerable to criticisms of being inexperienced, despite being about the same age as Rubio.

So why was Ryan chosen? There are a number of factors that likely weighed heavily in Romney's mind. First, the trial balloons on Romney and Portman earlier this summer fell flat. Second, polls have suggested that Barack Obama has held a slight lead over Romney throughout the race. Such polls are of registered voters rather than likely voters, but perhaps Romney's campaign is as led by the RealClearPolitics average as Intrade is. Also, some very recent polls show Obama with a bigger lead. Putting these two things together, Romney may have been persuaded that he needs a "game changing" VP, just as John McCain concluded four years ago.

Then there are the attributes that favor Ryan. Among Tea Partiers and hardcore conservatives, Ryan is considered a genuine conservative, not a "RINO." No doubt Romney chose Ryan in part to balance the ticket and energize his base. Unlike many on the far right, Ryan is not considered a "kook," but an intelligent and articulate, hard-working legislator. Ryan's youth and energy would also be seen as qualities that help balance the ticket. Though it's unlikely to make much difference, Ryan provides geographic balance as well: He's from Wisconsin, a Midwestern swing state. Finally, Ryan would probably have little difficulty beating Joe Biden in a debate.

The irony of the Ryan selection is that during the Republican primary, Romney went out of his way to avoid appearing too aggressively conservative on fiscal issues. Recall that for a long time, Romney avoided endorsing tax cuts for the rich; he only changed his mind when his campaign appeared vulnerable later on, when he needed to appeal to conservatives. The selection of Ryan is a full embrace of fiscal conservatism, including its most unpopular elements. Yet Romney may have felt that since he already spoke favorably of the Ryan Plan, he was stuck anyway.

Putting it all together, how will Ryan's selection impact the dynamic of the race? On balance, it will hurt Romney. By choosing Ryan, Romney has played directly into Obama's current strategy of class warfare. The Obama campaign can go on the offensive, claiming that a Romney/Ryan victory would result in the end of Medicare. By contrast, Ryan doesn't carry any constituency of his own to counter his downside. Arguably he could help energize the base, but there is historical evidence to suggest that the base turns out anyway, and candidates win the presidency by winning independents. On the surface, it appears Ryan will hurt rather than help with independents.

It will be some time before we can fully determine how a Ryan VP candidacy will play, and how Americans respond to him. For the moment, it is Elephant Watcher's determination that Romney's odds of winning the presidency have declined modestly."
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
1Historygenius
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8/11/2012 2:32:40 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
It looks Ryan is a negative for Romney, but I wonder what will happen in Wisconsin.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
Ore_Ele
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8/11/2012 2:42:26 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I believe his pick was because he is going to change focus from Jobs to Deficits.
"Wanting Red Rhino Pill to have gender"
1Historygenius
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8/12/2012 12:14:10 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/11/2012 2:39:39 PM, Ron-Paul wrote:
Ryan is negative. He should have picked someone else.

I was a strong support of Marco Rubio.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
imabench
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8/12/2012 12:18:38 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/11/2012 3:10:04 PM, Greyparrot wrote:
This combo is pretty far from McCain/Palin of last election.

^^^^^^^^^
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16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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8/12/2012 12:47:13 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/12/2012 12:14:10 AM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/11/2012 2:39:39 PM, Ron-Paul wrote:
Ryan is negative. He should have picked someone else.

I was a strong support of Marco Rubio.

Rubio said no months before
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"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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8/12/2012 1:59:06 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/12/2012 12:47:13 AM, 16kadams wrote:
At 8/12/2012 12:14:10 AM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/11/2012 2:39:39 PM, Ron-Paul wrote:
Ryan is negative. He should have picked someone else.

I was a strong support of Marco Rubio.

Rubio said no months before

Many candidates say no, before saying yes.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
Ron-Paul
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8/12/2012 6:57:17 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/12/2012 12:14:10 AM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/11/2012 2:39:39 PM, Ron-Paul wrote:
Ryan is negative. He should have picked someone else.

I was a strong support of Marco Rubio.

+1. My choice as well.
RoyLatham
Posts: 4,488
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8/12/2012 10:09:34 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
It's way too soon to say whether Ryan will be a plus or a minus.

The reason Romney picked him, from the accounts I've seen, is that Romney likes and trusts him. It's the same reason that Bush picked Chaney; which was not to secure the Wyoming vote.

For debate fans, it will be interesting. Ryan is a walking encyclopedia of budget data. The press is fond of asking superficial questions and getting superficial answers. Ryan upsets that model.
DanT
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8/12/2012 10:45:15 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
Why do people always cite biased sources? EW is a biased source; the name should make it obvious.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
1Historygenius
Posts: 1,639
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8/12/2012 10:56:33 AM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/12/2012 10:45:15 AM, DanT wrote:
Why do people always cite biased sources? EW is a biased source; the name should make it obvious.

Haven't I told you already that it got its name from following the GOP race for nomination? Why would you follow Obama's race for nomination anyway? Also, I don't consider it biased if Romney is losing points on it.
"The chief business of the American people is business." - Calvin Coolidge

Latest debate - Reagan was a better President than Obama: http://www.debate.org...
GeoLaureate8
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8/12/2012 6:54:06 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/12/2012 6:57:17 AM, Ron-Paul wrote:
At 8/12/2012 12:14:10 AM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/11/2012 2:39:39 PM, Ron-Paul wrote:
Ryan is negative. He should have picked someone else.

I was a strong support of Marco Rubio.

+1. My choice as well.

You support Ron Paul and Bilderberg shill, Marco Rubio? Not compatible.
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Ron-Paul
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8/12/2012 7:34:40 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/12/2012 6:54:06 PM, GeoLaureate8 wrote:
At 8/12/2012 6:57:17 AM, Ron-Paul wrote:
At 8/12/2012 12:14:10 AM, 1Historygenius wrote:
At 8/11/2012 2:39:39 PM, Ron-Paul wrote:
Ryan is negative. He should have picked someone else.

I was a strong support of Marco Rubio.

+1. My choice as well.

You support Ron Paul and Bilderberg shill, Marco Rubio? Not compatible.

I don't think I need to explain this to you if you believe the minority-vote theory.