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Liberals and Consensus

JamesMadison
Posts: 381
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8/19/2012 6:23:15 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Now, liberals talk a lot about how we need to believe in global warming because of consensus. But, do liberals believe in every area where there is consensus among experts?

Here are 14 areas where there is consensus or near consensus among economists on economic issues. Note, how many of these run directly contrary to liberal rhetoric and beliefs (minimum wage, trade, and rent control). A few run counter to conservative ideas.

I disagree with #4, but I don't think consensus proves much. But, if you're going to say that consensus proves global warming is right, then the same should be true in economics:

1.A ceiling on rents reduces the quantity and quality of housing available. (93%)
2.Tariffs and import quotas usually reduce general economic welfare. (93%)
3.Flexible and floating exchange rates offer an effective international monetary arrangement. (90%)
4.Fiscal policy (e.g., tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy. (90%)
5.The United States should not restrict employers from outsourcing work to foreign countries. (90%)
6.The United States should eliminate agricultural subsidies. (85%)
7.Local and state governments should eliminate subsidies to professional sports franchises. (85%)
8.If the federal budget is to be balanced, it should be done over the business cycle rather than yearly. (85%)
9.The gap between Social Security funds and expenditures will become unsustainably large within the next fifty years if current policies remain unchanged. (85%)
10.Cash payments increase the welfare of recipients to a greater degree than do transfers-in-kind of equal cash value. (84%)
11.A large federal budget deficit has an adverse effect on the economy. (83%)
12.A minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers. (79%)
13.The government should restructure the welfare system along the lines of a "negative income tax." (79%)
14.Effluent taxes and marketable pollution permits represent a better approach to pollution control than imposition of pollution ceilings. (78%)

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com...
As a general rule, you'll find that, when a conservative is talking about policy, history, economics, or something serious, liberals are nowhere to be found. But, as soon as a conservative mentions Obama's birthplace or personal life, liberals are everywhere, only to dissappear again when evidence enters the discussion.
NixonianVolkswagen
Posts: 481
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8/19/2012 6:26:55 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
I trust Mankiw, but ideally the data would come from more than a book we can buy, reported through a blog. :)
"There is an almost universal tendency, perhaps an inborn tendency, to suspect the good faith of a man who holds opinions that differ from our own opinions."

- Karl "Spartacus" Popper
imabench
Posts: 21,219
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8/19/2012 6:28:18 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
only source is from a blog? Most people arent going to accept these stats as accurate if they came from a blog
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JamesMadison
Posts: 381
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8/19/2012 6:29:14 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
Mankiw is a pretty credible guy. I believe, though, that it comes from Whaples survey of economists.
As a general rule, you'll find that, when a conservative is talking about policy, history, economics, or something serious, liberals are nowhere to be found. But, as soon as a conservative mentions Obama's birthplace or personal life, liberals are everywhere, only to dissappear again when evidence enters the discussion.
NixonianVolkswagen
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8/19/2012 6:30:24 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 6:28:18 PM, imabench wrote:
only source is from a blog? Most people arent going to accept these stats as accurate if they came from a blog

I agree to some real extent. Although, in fairness, I should note that Mankiw's blog is intended to be educational, in the better sense of that word.
"There is an almost universal tendency, perhaps an inborn tendency, to suspect the good faith of a man who holds opinions that differ from our own opinions."

- Karl "Spartacus" Popper
imabench
Posts: 21,219
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8/19/2012 6:45:33 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 6:30:24 PM, NixonianVolkswagen wrote:
At 8/19/2012 6:28:18 PM, imabench wrote:
only source is from a blog? Most people arent going to accept these stats as accurate if they came from a blog

I agree to some real extent. Although, in fairness, I should note that Mankiw's blog is intended to be educational, in the better sense of that word.

I have no issues regarding Mankiw, its just that DDO trains and conditions people to not believe any claim that is sourced only by a blog
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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8/19/2012 6:52:51 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 6:28:18 PM, imabench wrote:
only source is from a blog? Most people arent going to accept these stats as accurate if they came from a blog

The author has a bio

"I am a professor and chairman of the economics department at Harvard University, where I teach introductory economics (ec 10). I use this blog to keep in touch with my current and former students. Teachers and students at other schools, as well as others interested in economic issues, are welcome to use this resource."
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
imabench
Posts: 21,219
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8/19/2012 7:35:48 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 6:52:51 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 8/19/2012 6:28:18 PM, imabench wrote:
only source is from a blog? Most people arent going to accept these stats as accurate if they came from a blog

The author has a bio

"I am a professor and chairman of the economics department at Harvard University, where I teach introductory economics (ec 10). I use this blog to keep in touch with my current and former students. Teachers and students at other schools, as well as others interested in economic issues, are welcome to use this resource."

I know his credentials, I want to know where he got the study and those numbers from
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
DanT
Posts: 5,693
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8/19/2012 8:08:56 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 6:23:15 PM, JamesMadison wrote:
Now, liberals talk a lot about how we need to believe in global warming because of consensus. But, do liberals believe in every area where there is consensus among experts?

Here are 14 areas where there is consensus or near consensus among economists on economic issues. Note, how many of these run directly contrary to liberal rhetoric and beliefs (minimum wage, trade, and rent control). A few run counter to conservative ideas.

I disagree with #4, but I don't think consensus proves much. But, if you're going to say that consensus proves global warming is right, then the same should be true in economics:


1.A ceiling on rents reduces the quantity and quality of housing available. (93%)
2.Tariffs and import quotas usually reduce general economic welfare. (93%)
3.Flexible and floating exchange rates offer an effective international monetary arrangement. (90%)
4.Fiscal policy (e.g., tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy. (90%)
5.The United States should not restrict employers from outsourcing work to foreign countries. (90%)
6.The United States should eliminate agricultural subsidies. (85%)
7.Local and state governments should eliminate subsidies to professional sports franchises. (85%)
8.If the federal budget is to be balanced, it should be done over the business cycle rather than yearly. (85%)
9.The gap between Social Security funds and expenditures will become unsustainably large within the next fifty years if current policies remain unchanged. (85%)
10.Cash payments increase the welfare of recipients to a greater degree than do transfers-in-kind of equal cash value. (84%)
11.A large federal budget deficit has an adverse effect on the economy. (83%)
12.A minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers. (79%)
13.The government should restructure the welfare system along the lines of a "negative income tax." (79%)
14.Effluent taxes and marketable pollution permits represent a better approach to pollution control than imposition of pollution ceilings. (78%)

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com...

How did minimum wage not make the list? Most economist believe minimum wage should be either lowered, or removed.
"Chemical weapons are no different than any other types of weapons."~Lordknukle
Contra
Posts: 3,941
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8/19/2012 8:25:22 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 6:23:15 PM, JamesMadison wrote:
Now, liberals talk a lot about how we need to believe in global warming because of consensus. But, do liberals believe in every area where there is consensus among experts?

Here are 14 areas where there is consensus or near consensus among economists on economic issues. Note, how many of these run directly contrary to liberal rhetoric and beliefs (minimum wage, trade, and rent control). A few run counter to conservative ideas.

I disagree with #4, but I don't think consensus proves much. But, if you're going to say that consensus proves global warming is right, then the same should be true in economics:


1.A ceiling on rents reduces the quantity and quality of housing available. (93%)
2.Tariffs and import quotas usually reduce general economic welfare. (93%)
3.Flexible and floating exchange rates offer an effective international monetary arrangement. (90%)
4.Fiscal policy (e.g., tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy. (90%)
5.The United States should not restrict employers from outsourcing work to foreign countries. (90%)
6.The United States should eliminate agricultural subsidies. (85%)
7.Local and state governments should eliminate subsidies to professional sports franchises. (85%)
8.If the federal budget is to be balanced, it should be done over the business cycle rather than yearly. (85%)
9.The gap between Social Security funds and expenditures will become unsustainably large within the next fifty years if current policies remain unchanged. (85%)
10.Cash payments increase the welfare of recipients to a greater degree than do transfers-in-kind of equal cash value. (84%)
11.A large federal budget deficit has an adverse effect on the economy. (83%)
12.A minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers. (79%)
13.The government should restructure the welfare system along the lines of a "negative income tax." (79%)
14.Effluent taxes and marketable pollution permits represent a better approach to pollution control than imposition of pollution ceilings. (78%)

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com...

Strange enough, besides the last couple, I agreed with most of these when I was a Liberal.
"The solution [for Republicans] is to admit that Bush was a bad president, stop this racist homophobic stuff, stop trying to give most of the tax cuts to the rich, propose a real alternative to Obamacare that actually works, and propose smart free market solutions to our economic problems." - Distraff

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JamesMadison
Posts: 381
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8/19/2012 9:36:14 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 8:08:56 PM, DanT wrote:
At 8/19/2012 6:23:15 PM, JamesMadison wrote:
Now, liberals talk a lot about how we need to believe in global warming because of consensus. But, do liberals believe in every area where there is consensus among experts?

Here are 14 areas where there is consensus or near consensus among economists on economic issues. Note, how many of these run directly contrary to liberal rhetoric and beliefs (minimum wage, trade, and rent control). A few run counter to conservative ideas.

I disagree with #4, but I don't think consensus proves much. But, if you're going to say that consensus proves global warming is right, then the same should be true in economics:


1.A ceiling on rents reduces the quantity and quality of housing available. (93%)
2.Tariffs and import quotas usually reduce general economic welfare. (93%)
3.Flexible and floating exchange rates offer an effective international monetary arrangement. (90%)
4.Fiscal policy (e.g., tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy. (90%)
5.The United States should not restrict employers from outsourcing work to foreign countries. (90%)
6.The United States should eliminate agricultural subsidies. (85%)
7.Local and state governments should eliminate subsidies to professional sports franchises. (85%)
8.If the federal budget is to be balanced, it should be done over the business cycle rather than yearly. (85%)
9.The gap between Social Security funds and expenditures will become unsustainably large within the next fifty years if current policies remain unchanged. (85%)
10.Cash payments increase the welfare of recipients to a greater degree than do transfers-in-kind of equal cash value. (84%)
11.A large federal budget deficit has an adverse effect on the economy. (83%)
12.A minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers. (79%)
13.The government should restructure the welfare system along the lines of a "negative income tax." (79%)
14.Effluent taxes and marketable pollution permits represent a better approach to pollution control than imposition of pollution ceilings. (78%)

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com...

How did minimum wage not make the list? Most economist believe minimum wage should be either lowered, or removed.

#12.
As a general rule, you'll find that, when a conservative is talking about policy, history, economics, or something serious, liberals are nowhere to be found. But, as soon as a conservative mentions Obama's birthplace or personal life, liberals are everywhere, only to dissappear again when evidence enters the discussion.
JamesMadison
Posts: 381
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8/19/2012 9:37:12 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 8:25:22 PM, Contra wrote:
At 8/19/2012 6:23:15 PM, JamesMadison wrote:
Now, liberals talk a lot about how we need to believe in global warming because of consensus. But, do liberals believe in every area where there is consensus among experts?

Here are 14 areas where there is consensus or near consensus among economists on economic issues. Note, how many of these run directly contrary to liberal rhetoric and beliefs (minimum wage, trade, and rent control). A few run counter to conservative ideas.

I disagree with #4, but I don't think consensus proves much. But, if you're going to say that consensus proves global warming is right, then the same should be true in economics:


1.A ceiling on rents reduces the quantity and quality of housing available. (93%)
2.Tariffs and import quotas usually reduce general economic welfare. (93%)
3.Flexible and floating exchange rates offer an effective international monetary arrangement. (90%)
4.Fiscal policy (e.g., tax cut and/or government expenditure increase) has a significant stimulative impact on a less than fully employed economy. (90%)
5.The United States should not restrict employers from outsourcing work to foreign countries. (90%)
6.The United States should eliminate agricultural subsidies. (85%)
7.Local and state governments should eliminate subsidies to professional sports franchises. (85%)
8.If the federal budget is to be balanced, it should be done over the business cycle rather than yearly. (85%)
9.The gap between Social Security funds and expenditures will become unsustainably large within the next fifty years if current policies remain unchanged. (85%)
10.Cash payments increase the welfare of recipients to a greater degree than do transfers-in-kind of equal cash value. (84%)
11.A large federal budget deficit has an adverse effect on the economy. (83%)
12.A minimum wage increases unemployment among young and unskilled workers. (79%)
13.The government should restructure the welfare system along the lines of a "negative income tax." (79%)
14.Effluent taxes and marketable pollution permits represent a better approach to pollution control than imposition of pollution ceilings. (78%)

http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com...

Strange enough, besides the last couple, I agreed with most of these when I was a Liberal.

Fair enough. And, a lot of conservatives believe in global warming. But, the majority view is contrary.
As a general rule, you'll find that, when a conservative is talking about policy, history, economics, or something serious, liberals are nowhere to be found. But, as soon as a conservative mentions Obama's birthplace or personal life, liberals are everywhere, only to dissappear again when evidence enters the discussion.
JamesMadison
Posts: 381
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8/19/2012 9:38:16 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 9:37:01 PM, Aaronroy wrote:
Consensus in science is not the same as consensus in mainstream economic theory.

Expert consenus.... How would it not apply the same way?
As a general rule, you'll find that, when a conservative is talking about policy, history, economics, or something serious, liberals are nowhere to be found. But, as soon as a conservative mentions Obama's birthplace or personal life, liberals are everywhere, only to dissappear again when evidence enters the discussion.
16kadams
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8/19/2012 9:42:19 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 9:37:01 PM, Aaronroy wrote:
Consensus in science is not the same as consensus in mainstream economic theory.

And a consensus used to think catastrophe wouldn't effect evolution, oil was only near the surface (my grandpa actually wrote the first dissenting study to that idea), and the continents didn't move.

Consensus in science is bogus, and it sometimes is with economics too.
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https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross
JamesMadison
Posts: 381
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8/19/2012 9:44:57 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 9:42:19 PM, 16kadams wrote:
At 8/19/2012 9:37:01 PM, Aaronroy wrote:
Consensus in science is not the same as consensus in mainstream economic theory.

And a consensus used to think catastrophe wouldn't effect evolution, oil was only near the surface (my grandpa actually wrote the first dissenting study to that idea), and the continents didn't move.

Consensus in science is bogus, and it sometimes is with economics too.

+1

Just like science, there have been wrong consensuses in economics too.

Back in the 1960s, economists were all hard keynesians. Friedman was considered a "crank" because he thought that high inflation didn't always mean low unemployment. People thought he was crazy.

The late 1970s proved the Keynesians wrong and many neoclassical ideas came into favor both within keynesianism and from the outside.

Now, I think this is good. But, I favor the new economic ideas because they are correct... not because of consensus.
As a general rule, you'll find that, when a conservative is talking about policy, history, economics, or something serious, liberals are nowhere to be found. But, as soon as a conservative mentions Obama's birthplace or personal life, liberals are everywhere, only to dissappear again when evidence enters the discussion.
imabench
Posts: 21,219
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8/19/2012 10:00:29 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 9:52:14 PM, FREEDO wrote:
The one big problem with this is that economics, as applied politically, isn't science.

^^^^^
Kevin24018 : "He's just so mean it makes me want to ball up my fists and stamp on the ground"
Geogeer: "Nobody is dumb enough to become my protege."

7/14/16 = The Presidency Dies

DDO: THE MOVIE = http://www.debate.org...
http://www.debate.org...

VP of DDO from Dec 14th 2014 to Jan 1st 2015
JamesMadison
Posts: 381
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8/19/2012 10:03:59 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 10:00:29 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/19/2012 9:52:14 PM, FREEDO wrote:
The one big problem with this is that economics, as applied politically, isn't science.

^^^^^

Neither is science. And, there is a huge push to apply policies based on global warming, like cap and trade and carbon tax.

So, science, as applied politically, isn't science either.
As a general rule, you'll find that, when a conservative is talking about policy, history, economics, or something serious, liberals are nowhere to be found. But, as soon as a conservative mentions Obama's birthplace or personal life, liberals are everywhere, only to dissappear again when evidence enters the discussion.
16kadams
Posts: 10,497
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8/19/2012 10:05:17 PM
Posted: 4 years ago
At 8/19/2012 10:00:29 PM, imabench wrote:
At 8/19/2012 9:52:14 PM, FREEDO wrote:
The one big problem with this is that economics, as applied politically, isn't science.

^^^^^

And you think scientists being kicked out of the IPCC, not allowed to publish skeptical opinions in science journals, and government grants supporting an alarmist position is not political? Being a skeptic means you are a liar and your cutting is cut off from government grants is not political? CLIMATE CHANGE "SCIENCE" ISN'T POLITICAL? That gave me a laugh.
https://www.youtube.com...
https://rekonomics.wordpress.com...
"A trend is a trend, but the question is, will it bend? Will it alter its course through some unforeseen force and come to a premature end?" -- Alec Cairncross